Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[Heyjoe4]

I go back and forth on my Lazard Love. I loved when we signed him off the Jaguars PS. I love a lot of the things that he does, especially his blocking. Where I waiver is just how much value does he have? Definitely a legit #3 guy. Potentially a #2, if he keeps progressing. Then you have the whole "what would he be without Rodgers?" question. Given our current WR situation, I would be fine with seeing him locked down on a 3 year incentive laced deal, but as you implied, he needs to also get paid for some of his intangibles and the most important one, blocking.

Good summary of Lazard's situation. There are a lot of unknowns with him. With Adams gone, does his production double or dramatically increase? If possible I'd put him on a one year deal with a lot of incentives. If he succeeds, it will be harder to sign him to an extended contract. And I don't know what he wants. He's got some leverage here, but I don't think he'll get a better deal than the one from the Packers. And I think a long term deal here, paying him as more than a #3 WR, is a mistake. You have to (usually) prove it to get the big $$$.

 

[kevans74]

Yup and that is why they pay the scouts the big money. The player that most recently sticks out for me was Josh Jackson at Iowa. So many were enamored by his 8 interceptions, 2 of them returned for TD's. Many thought he had earned himself a potential first round grade. A few scouts noticed that he really wasn't very good man to man. I will admit that I thought he was a steal for the Packers in the second round at #45. Turns out, the guy was completely overrated and appears to already be out of the league. Then there are the guys who have a huge sack total in their contract year and someone pays them big bucks as a result. Usually, to find out that all those sacks really didn't define the player very well.

Obviously, there are other factors, such as injuries, coaching and the dreaded "I got paid big, I'm set, I can coast now". I think that was one of the reasons TT stayed away from big Free agent signings as much as he did. He didn't want to over invest in a player that other teams were offering way too much money to.

Nick Perry

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Nick Perry

Yup...he totally crossed my mind too. Hate when they have a guy that has 3 average to bad years, or lots of injuries, than a really good contract year. That is when the coaches probably know best as to whether the player is worth keeping or not and at what price.

 

[elcid]

Gone, but not forgotten

 

[Schultz]

Pass rushing stats are full if pseudo success. Just what good are "hits" and "hurries" if you came too late and the qb scrambled for a first down or completed a pass. I would much rather have forced interceptions similar to a forced fumble and forced incompletion rather than a "hurry" , similar to what db's have for passes defensed. Sacks sre still the gold standard but I would measure sacks as yardage lost. A one yard sack shouldn't matter as much as a 10 yard sack. The latter will usually stop a drive. Without meaningful stats, its extremely difficult to compare and evaluate pass rushers.

IMO 58.3% of stats are overrated. 18.6% are underrated & 23.1% are dead on. IMO.

 

[Heyjoe4]

IMO 58.3% of stats are overrated. 18.6% are underrated & 23.1% are dead on. IMO.

LOL Schultz. I won't ask about the science behind these stats.

And remember Twain's three types of lies - 1) Lies, 2) Damned Lies, and 3) Statistics.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

IMO 58.3% of stats are overrated. 18.6% are underrated & 23.1% are dead on. IMO.

and those stats were 100% made up.

At least you got the math right.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He's got some leverage here, but I don't think he'll get a better deal than the one from the Packers. And I think a long term deal here, paying him as more than a #3 WR, is a mistake.

Just for the record, Lazard can't sign with any other team at this point.

 

[Sanguine camper]

IMO 58.3% of stats are overrated. 18.6% are underrated & 23.1% are dead on. IMO.

My point is that for no other position are the mea sures of "success" so unreliable. For a RB, you have YPC, a pretty good indictor of success. While no stat is perfect, pass rushing stats are a joke. "Hits" and "Hurries" don't translate to success very often. In most cases the qb steped into the pocket and completed a pass or scrambled for a first down. There are more accurate measures of success like the ones I posted and likely others I didn't think of. I don't see how sloppiness helps the game.

 

[Mondio]

stats for sports are just like BMI for people. at an individual level it's pretty meaningless, when applied to a broad population you can make some fairly accurate assessments but then when focusing in on an individual again, it may mean something or may be completely worthless.

 

[Heyjoe4]

My point is that for no other position are the mea sures of "success" so unreliable. For a RB, you have YPC, a pretty good indictor of success. While no stat is perfect, pass rushing stats are a joke. "Hits" and "Hurries" don't translate to success very often. In most cases the qb steped into the pocket and completed a pass or scrambled for a first down. There are more accurate measures of success like the ones I posted and likely others I didn't think of. I don't see how sloppiness helps the game.

Good observation. What good is a hit or hurry if the result is a TD or big gain for first down. The D needs credit for getting to the QB, and this may be the best way to portray it without needing a data scientist.

 

[Heyjoe4]

stats for sports are just like BMI for people. at an individual level it's pretty meaningless, when applied to a broad population you can make some fairly accurate assessments but then when focusing in on an individual again, it may mean something or may be completely worthless.

I think it's called the law of large numbers. It can be used for broad analysis about a position group, say OLB. It falls apart when the sample size is only one player.

 

[mradtke66]

"Hits" and "Hurries" don't translate to success very often. In most cases the qb steped into the pocket and completed a pass or scrambled for a first down.

That's a bold claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?

 

[Mondio]

I think my claim that hits and hurries lead to more INT's probably has more validity, but if there are stats to prove it, i'm not bothering to look them up I'm lazy.

 

[sschind]

I think my claim that hits and hurries lead to more INT's probably has more validity, but if there are stats to prove it, i'm not bothering to look them up I'm lazy.

not just interceptions but simple incomplete passes. A hurry on 3rd down that forces a QB to throw the ball into the dirt and a punt on 4th down is almost as good as a sack. Turnovers are a fairly rare occurrence so the main goal of the defense is to force a punt. Any play that does that is pretty much as effective as any other.

 

[longtimefan]

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Or why forum GMs aren’t employed by nfl teams

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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Yup....kind of fun going back and reading all of the chicken little (the sky is falling) posts.

This guy seemed to understand it.

For those down on the Gary pick, might want to be listening to the Gute Presser that is currently taking place. I will edit in a link, when its available.

The Packers absolutely love this guy and what they feel he is going to add to the defense. Of course I wouldn't expect him to say differently, but his rationale is much more convincing then most of the posts I have read here lambasting the pick.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yup....kind of fun going back and reading all of the chicken little (the sky is falling) posts.

This guy seemed to understand it.

This guy is a genius, too bad he doesn't know anything about kickers

 

[PikeBadger]

Yup....kind of fun going back and reading all of the chicken little (the sky is falling) posts.

This guy seemed to understand it.

Yep, he's definitely a legend in his own mind.

 

[Heyjoe4]

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Speaking of Gary, when is he due an extension? I think after next year, though they'll probably do it sooner next year.

 

[Voyageur]

Speaking of Gary, when is he due an extension? I think after next year, though they'll probably do it sooner next year.

Gary's Contract:

Year		Age	Base Salary	Signing	Cap Hit	Dead Cap	Yearly Cash
2019	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	22	$495,000	$2,391,784	$2,886,784	$15,877,312	$10,062,136($10,062,136)
2020	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	23	$1,216,696	$2,391,784	$3,608,480	$12,990,528	$1,300,860($11,362,996)
2021	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	24	$1,938,392	$2,391,784	$4,330,176	$9,382,048	$1,938,392($13,301,388)
2022	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	25	$2,660,088	$2,391,784	$5,051,872	$5,051,872	$2,660,088($15,961,476)
2023	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	26	$10,892,000	-	$10,892,000	$10,892,000	$10,892,000($26,853,476)
2024	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	27	UFA

 

[Heyjoe4]

Gary's Contract:

Year		Age	Base Salary	Signing	Cap Hit	Dead Cap	Yearly Cash
2019	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	22	$495,000	$2,391,784	$2,886,784	$15,877,312	$10,062,136($10,062,136)
2020	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	23	$1,216,696	$2,391,784	$3,608,480	$12,990,528	$1,300,860($11,362,996)
2021	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	24	$1,938,392	$2,391,784	$4,330,176	$9,382,048	$1,938,392($13,301,388)
2022	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	25	$2,660,088	$2,391,784	$5,051,872	$5,051,872	$2,660,088($15,961,476)
2023	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	26	$10,892,000	-	$10,892,000	$10,892,000	$10,892,000($26,853,476)
2024	You must be logged in to see this image or video!	27	UFA

This is really interesting, thanks V. So they paid him up front, well mostly. I think they did that with Love, and probably all 1st rounders. So they'll have to extend him before the end of this year. Whoo boy, and Jenkins is coming up too.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yep, he's definitely a legend in his own mind.

Even a blind Squirrel eventually finds a nut. My initial reaction to the Gary pick on draft night, was bewilderment. Not because of the player, more because Gute had just spent a ton of money in free agency on the Smiths. His presser convinced me that it was a very solid pick, which it turned out to be.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is really interesting, thanks V. So they paid him up front, well mostly. I think they did that with Love, and probably all 1st rounders. So they'll have to extend him before the end of this year. Whoo boy, and Jenkins is coming up too.

No. They still have Gary's 5th year, which is 2023 to do that.

 

[OldSchool101]

Even a blind Squirrel eventually finds a nut. My initial reaction to the Gary pick on draft night, was bewilderment. Not because of the player, more because Gute had just spent a ton of money in free agency on the Smiths. His presser convinced me that it was a very solid pick, which it turned out to be.

Yeah. It initially seemed odd to go sign 2 FA OLB and then use a #12 draft selection only for limited usage off the bench. You’d think the #12th best player in college wouldn’t serve Gatorade to the starters.