Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[OldSchool101]

Do you really think Brandon will stay away, even if he is banned?

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Thanks. I’m scared to death of Big Bird now. Perfect post for “Friday the 13th... a New Bird on a Full Moon”
It’s always when the lunatics appear.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'd simply like to point out that college PFF is awful, and I don't trust any of their metrics there.

Hell, they said Josh Jackson was good at press man, when he never even did that!

Didnt find that about Jackson.

In their video they say he is their top ranked cb of the draft.

They say he doesnt have experience in press but he does have the physical tools to do it. They do not say he is good at press coverage.

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As far as the accuracy of their numbers, they say they have a correlation of 0.6 when it comes to predictive success of pass rushers.


https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-college-grades-and-nfl-correlation-for-pass-rushers

This is a surprisingly strong value. If course it is self reprted and would require close examination to put too much credence into.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Maybe I missed someones post claiming that it would take that long to develop Gary, but seems like you are creating a strawman argument with that? If not, my apologies, but I have never seen someone state that they felt it would take 3-4 years to develop him.

That said, people who think he already should be a starter and producing like a top starter, aren't being patient enough IMO. Look around the league and the history of draft picks and tell me when a #12 pick, yet alone sometimes a top 5 pick is an instant producer. Gary wasn't drafted just for the sacks he had at Michigan, he was drafted with the 12th pick because of what the Packers felt was a guy that they could develop into a very good player. How long that takes depends on a lot of variables.

I never claimed he needed to be a starter in his first year. There was no strawman, if you read the post I quoted you would see that someone else posted that the Packer selected him knowing that it would take a couple of years for him to develop, that's what I was replying to. My main issues with the Gary pick are: first, he didn't produce on the field in college that someone with his level of talent should and second, the coaches are playing him at a position that the team just spent a TON of money to shore up.

I'm all for giving the guy time but it seems a stretch to say he's going to unseat one of the Smiths any time in the next couple years (and if he does then chances are the GM overpaid for them) so he's either a backup or he could move to DE and replace someone like Lowry. If he's not giving the defense 40+ snaps a game by the end of the year then I think it's fair to start wondering.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I never claimed he needed to be a starter in his first year. There was no strawman, if you read the post I quoted you would see that someone else posted that the Packer selected him knowing that it would take a couple of years for him to develop, that's what I was replying to. My main issues with the Gary pick are: first, he didn't produce on the field in college that someone with his level of talent should and second, the coaches are playing him at a position that the team just spent a TON of money to shore up.

I'm all for giving the guy time but it seems a stretch to say he's going to unseat one of the Smiths any time in the next couple years (and if he does then chances are the GM overpaid for them) so he's either a backup or he could move to DE and replace someone like Lowry. If he's not giving the defense 40+ snaps a game by the end of the year then I think it's fair to start wondering.

All good points. IMO, a 1st round pick, especially at #12, should be expected to start. Seems we picked a developmental player at a position of strength (after the FA acquisitions). Not sure who else was on the board, but it seems like a strange pick. Hopefully Gluten knows something none of us know and the guy will turn out to be a stud.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Didnt find that about Jackson.

In their video they say he is their top ranked cb of the draft.

They say he doesnt have experience in press but he does have the physical tools to do it. They do not say he is good at press coverage.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

As far as the accuracy of their numbers, they say they have a correlation of 0.6 when it comes to predictive success of pass rushers.


https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-college-grades-and-nfl-correlation-for-pass-rushers

This is a surprisingly strong value. If course it is self reprted and would require close examination to put too much credence into.

Why you gotta be coming at the poster with facts and stuff? Don't you know that if PFF says something you disagree with then it automatically means their numbers are BS and worthless? Actual reality plays no part in it!

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think he took my buying “Stock” analogy a little too seriously.
It can take that long for a stock to show but more often even those don’t take 3-4 years. We’ve got a bunch of Wall Street Day Traders around here
If the investment doesn’t pay immediate dividends we find the nearest bridge and threaten to jump. I’m ok with that if you’re in my way coming home. Don’t hold up traffic. J/K. You know I love my Packer brothers n sisters

No, I got the stock analogy. I just think it was incorrect. The only inherent qualities that Gary had to predict a strong ROI were his combine numbers. He's basically the Uber of stocks. His story is flashy but the actual performance of the business (i.e., his play in college) doesn't support any of the valuations being placed upon the investment.

 

[GleefulGary]

Didnt find that about Jackson.

In their video they say he is their top ranked cb of the draft.

They say he doesnt have experience in press but he does have the physical tools to do it. They do not say he is good at press coverage.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

As far as the accuracy of their numbers, they say they have a correlation of 0.6 when it comes to predictive success of pass rushers.


https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-college-grades-and-nfl-correlation-for-pass-rushers

This is a surprisingly strong value. If course it is self reprted and would require close examination to put too much credence into.

There was a scouting report they had on him that detailed it. Wimm and I argued for a while about it. I don't know where it's located, but I know it's there.

I'm SHOCKED that PFF would find that their numbers have a high correlation to success. I'm sure they're not a biased source, or anything, though.

 

[GleefulGary]

Why you gotta be coming at the poster with facts and stuff? Don't you know that if PFF says something you disagree with then it automatically means their numbers are BS and worthless? Actual reality plays no part in it!

I did an analysis and found that my discussion on PFF has a 99th percentile accuracy rating. Sorry, thems the numbers!

 

[mradtke66]

His story is flashy but the actual performance of the business (i.e., his play in college) doesn't support any of the valuations being placed upon the investment.

That's probably too strong the other way.

Yes, he doesn't have the college pass rush production you're hoping for, but all the film I saw is that, at minimum, an excellent run defender. Sure, the combine helped, but he speed and strength shows up in games.

My feel on him is a Clowney-type player. Possibly never an elite pass rusher, but excellent run defender that will occasionally flirt with 10 sack seasons.

That's still pretty good value at #12.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

That's probably too strong the other way.

Yes, he doesn't have the college pass rush production you're hoping for, but all the film I saw is that, at minimum, an excellent run defender. Sure, the combine helped, but he speed and strength shows up in games.

My feel on him is a Clowney-type player. Possibly never an elite pass rusher, but excellent run defender that will occasionally flirt with 10 sack seasons.

That's still pretty good value at #12.

A good run defender is worth a day three pick. The NFL doesn't put much of a premium on guys that can just stop the run, they need to have shown some pass rush skill. Now, against the Bears he showed some ability to pressure the passer on his limited snaps but the real test becomes if he can earn some playing time. Though that's a double edged sword because increased playing time for Gary will come at the cost of one of the Smiths being on the bench and then we get to ask why we spent so much on that player....it's just a strange situation Gute created at the OLB spot. I still think that next year might see Gary at DE once he's had some time to get his shoulder healthy and bulk up (though he probably only needs about 10 pounds) because that would be a great way to get both Smiths and Gary on the field at the same time for a majority of the game.

 

[mradtke66]

A good run defender is worth a day three pick. The NFL doesn't put much of a premium on guys that can just stop the run, they need to have shown some pass rush skill. Now, against the Bears he showed some ability to pressure the passer on his limited snaps but the real test becomes if he can earn some playing time. Though that's a double edged sword because increased playing time for Gary will come at the cost of one of the Smiths being on the bench and then we get to ask why we spent so much on that player....it's just a strange situation Gute created at the OLB spot. I still think that next year might see Gary at DE once he's had some time to get his shoulder healthy and bulk up (though he probably only needs about 10 pounds) because that would be a great way to get both Smiths and Gary on the field at the same time for a majority of the game.

There's a simpler path.

Z-Smith is already penciled in as a 3T in nickel situations. Once Gary is ready, you can have Smith, Smith, and Gary on the field. Probably as early as this year. Slide Z-Smith to 3T and you're done.

In other words, what you're proposing with fewer steps. And a quicker timeline. I'd be pretty happy with Gary-Smith-Clark-Smith on passing downs. I'd prefer to keep Gary on the Edge--he's just plain faster. Pure speed is more useful on the Edge when rushing and allows him to better execute his run responsibilities.

Of course if he ends up being a better nickel 3T, by all means move him. But that strikes me as a bigger projection than Edge.

 

[XPack]

Do you really think Brandon will stay away, even if he is banned?

He's banned? When did that happen?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

There's a simpler path.

Z-Smith is already penciled in as a 3T in nickel situations. Once Gary is ready, you can have Smith, Smith, and Gary on the field. Probably as early as this year. Slide Z-Smith to 3T and you're done.

In other words, what you're proposing with fewer steps. And a quicker timeline. I'd be pretty happy with Gary-Smith-Clark-Smith on passing downs. I'd prefer to keep Gary on the Edge--he's just plain faster. Pure speed is more useful on the Edge when rushing and allows him to better execute his run responsibilities.

Of course if he ends up being a better nickel 3T, by all means move him. But that strikes me as a bigger projection than Edge.

Z-Smith is a great third down interior pass rusher but I think if you're asking him to play tackle on two-thirds of his snaps then he's gonna wear down pretty quick.

And I wasn't talking about playing Gary at DT, I was talking about him taking over for Lowry or playing opposite Lowry in a more traditional 3-4 front.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I never claimed he needed to be a starter in his first year. There was no strawman, if you read the post I quoted you would see that someone else posted that the Packer selected him knowing that it would take a couple of years for him to develop, that's what I was replying to.

Nice back tracking and yes, you did create a Strawman argument. There is a big difference between someone saying "it might take a couple of years" than what you initially stated that people were saying.

Spending the 12th overall pick on a guy that you don't anticipate being able to contribute for 3-4 years doesn't qualify as a very good pick;

 

[mradtke66]

And I wasn't talking about playing Gary at DT, I was talking about him taking over for Lowry or playing opposite Lowry in a more traditional 3-4 front.

Do you want to end up with Datone Jones? Cuz that's how you get Datone Jones.

There's also the problem that we play base 3-4 about 20-25% of the time. He could probably do it here and there right now today, because we don't use that alignment much. The league doesn't use base that much anymore.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'm SHOCKED that PFF would find that their numbers have a high correlation to success. I'm sure they're not a biased source, or anything, though.

I know. My suspicion is they used those numbers to create their formula. So, of course it correlates.

Anyway, they look at every play a prospect plays. They are at a minimum, better than us. Does that make them right? No. Even the best professionals disagree on players all the time. One thing they do, that i like, is they throw out the easy plays that arent based on individual performance. That is a blitz where a player rushes untouched for a sack doesnt count. Anyway, Gary's stats are bad both sacks and pressures.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He's banned? When did that happen?

You must have missed the fireworks with Brandon, I think I have it on instant replay. Not sure which mod is dressed as the computer, but whoever it was, he deserves a Gold Star or at least a cookie.

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[XPack]

Oh, my. Looks like I missed Brandongate.

He went totally off the rails.

Probably his missus realized he spends more time here than with her? Or maybe a buddy on the ****?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I know. My suspicion is they used those numbers to create their formula. So, of course it correlates.

Anyway, they look at every play a prospect plays. They are at a minimum, better than us. Does that make them right? No. Even the best professionals disagree on players all the time. One thing they do, that i like, is they throw out the easy plays that arent based on individual performance. That is a blitz where a player rushes untouched for a sack doesnt count. Anyway, Gary's stats are bad both sacks and pressures.

PFF does not throw out any plays. They grade each play on the traditional coaches grading system of -2 to +2 in increments of 1/2. If a guy has 9 plays graded 0 and one +2, they don't throw out the 0s and call him a +2 player.

It's worth keeping in mind that in applying those grades, PFF makes purported informed assumptions about what a player's assignment is on each play. A play grade is "normalized" for game situation, however that's suppose to work, and a player's season grade is adjusted for how consistent his game grades are over the course of a season. Consequently, as they note, it is possible for a player to get a season grade that is higher than any of his individual game grade.

As for that unblocked blitzer, there are a range of negative-to-positive outcomes for that player. On the negative side, the player could trip and fall, whiff badly on a dead-to-rights sack, or drive the QB into the ground for a 15 yard penalty. On the plus side, it might range from chasing the QB out of the pocket to actually getting that clean sack. To my mind a 0 play would be chasing the QB who's in a called bootleg the other way to a short throw without actually hurrying him.

One wonders how they grade a CB play were he blows a coverage and the QB doesn't throw the ball that way. The examples given focus on actual outcomes. I would presume that would get a negative grade even if we never see it on a telecast, though I couldn't be certain.

It should be noted that nowhere anywhere in the PFF stuff I've read, and I've read a lot of it, does it say adjustments are made for level of competition. An edge rusher going against Bakhtiari presumably does not get a break. Whether that competition colors the invidual play grades that are assigned by "experts" who know who's on the other side of the ball is a question.

As you can see in the link below, a well-executed short throw by a QB typically gets a +0.5. I would expect a well executed sack on an unblocked blitz woud earn at least the same.

https://www.pff.com/pff-player-grades

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Nice back tracking and yes, you did create a Strawman argument. There is a big difference between someone saying "it might take a couple of years" than what you initially stated that people were saying.

Ahh, so the difference between a strawman argument is a year. If I had said 2-3 years it would have been fine; 3-4 years is strawman. Gotcha. I initially said 3-4 years and that was strawman, a "couple of years" isn't.

And in the future i'll be sure to research my prior posts so that I use highly detailed units of measurement like a "couple of years" consistently from post-to-post.

 

[Mondio]

Just because a player is developing doesn’t mean they are not contributing or cannot contribute . Nobody’s expecting three or four years until he contributes anything but we are expecting a take two or three seasons for him to develop which is fairly normal for an NFL player

 

[AmishMafia]

PFF does not throw out any plays. They grade each play on the traditional coaches grading system of -2 to +2 in increments of 1/2. If a guy has 9 plays graded 0 and one +2, they don't throw out the 0s and call him a +2 player.

It's worth keeping in mind that in applying those grades, PFF makes purported informed assumptions about what a player's assignment is on each play. A play grade is "normalized" for game situation, however that's suppose to work, and a player's season grade is adjusted for how consistent his game grades are over the course of a season. Consequently, as they note, it is possible for a player to get a season grade that is higher than any of his individual game grade.

As for that unblocked blitzer, there are a range of negative-to-positive outcomes for that player. On the negative side, the player could trip and fall, whiff badly on a dead-to-rights sack, or drive the QB into the ground for a 15 yard penalty. On the plus side, it might range from chasing the QB out of the pocket to actually getting that clean sack. To my mind a 0 play would be chasing the QB who's in a called bootleg the other way to a short throw without actually hurrying him.

One wonders how they grade a CB play were he blows a coverage and the QB doesn't throw the ball that way. The examples given focus on actual outcomes. I would presume that would get a negative grade even if we never see it on a telecast, though I couldn't be certain.

It should be noted that nowhere anywhere in the PFF stuff I've read, and I've read a lot of it, does it say adjustments are made for level of competition. An edge rusher going against Bakhtiari presumably does not get a break. Whether that competition colors the invidual play grades that are assigned by "experts" who know who's on the other side of the ball is a question.

As you can see in the link below, a well-executed short throw by a QB typically gets a +0.5. I would expect a well executed sack on an unblocked blitz woud earn at least the same.

https://www.pff.com/pff-player-grades

From the article i linked

Defensive scheme can certainly limit a player’s opportunities, so it’s fair to ask whether or not Gary was limited during his time at Michigan. While he has been used on stunts and as more of a “decoy” on blitzes, Gary has had plenty of one-on-one opportunities to rush the passer in his three years at Ann Arbor. When we filter out plays with no blitzes and no stunts, Gary ranks just 64th among edge defenders in the draft class with at least 100 opportunities and only 30th among those with at least 250 rushes.

They are filtering out plays with no blitzes and stunts to get their pass rush ability stats. The pass rush grade must be different than the overall player grades you are refering to.

 

[OldSchool101]

No, I got the stock analogy. I just think it was incorrect. The only inherent qualities that Gary had to predict a strong ROI were his combine numbers. He's basically the Uber of stocks. His story is flashy but the actual performance of the business (i.e., his play in college) doesn't support any of the valuations being placed upon the investment.

That’s not what I’ve read. I remembered references to him being as high as a top 5 pick from a the Pro scouting world.
Now he may have slipped a little past #12 had GB taken a pass in him.. but there was likely a host of teams that would’ve snatched him before our 2nd pick. He was all over a round 1 grade throughout the pre draft boards. The boards that had him outside round 1 were few.

So this argument that GB (or any team) was only interested in his combine doesn’t hold up. He was a touted and highly respected 6.31 grade before combine day. Take a look for yourself and see how many players were higher rated. Only 6 players graded higher (nfl.com). Quinnen, Simmons, J Allen, Nick Bosa, TJ and Sweat. All drafted pick #27 overall or better.
He slipped a little because his stats weren’t overall flashy. Had he put up 10+ sacks in his final college season? We would’ve had to trade in front of the Lions to get him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

From the article i linked

Defensive scheme can certainly limit a player’s opportunities, so it’s fair to ask whether or not Gary was limited during his time at Michigan. While he has been used on stunts and as more of a “decoy” on blitzes, Gary has had plenty of one-on-one opportunities to rush the passer in his three years at Ann Arbor. When we filter out plays with no blitzes and no stunts, Gary ranks just 64th among edge defenders in the draft class with at least 100 opportunities and only 30th among those with at least 250 rushes.

They are filtering out plays with no blitzes and stunts to get their pass rush ability stats. The pass rush grade must be different than the overall player grades you are refering to.

I wasn't talking about Gary. I didn't mention Gary. I was commenting on how PFF grades.

I presume you meant this analysis:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-rashan-gary-is-not-a-first-round-talent

PFF's standard pass rush grades do not excise blitz and stunt plays from the analysis. In that article, they produced that more specific grade as distinct from their standard pass rush grade to illustrate the point that Gary was not a good one-on-one pass rusher and did the same for Winovich for comparison to try to answer the question of whether Gary was scheme inhibited. Otherwise, their standard grade would not include any grading of any rusher on a blitz or stunt play. That would be the height of foolishness, saying nobody could do anything bad or good on those plays.

Of course we've heard all this before, Gary's lackluster college stats. The thing many people might find surprising is this:

"Gary’s best overall season grade is 80.4, coming last year on only 353 snaps and his peak pass-rush grade is only 72.7, earned in 2017 on 341 rushes."

Gary missed 4 games his senior year and was evidently on a limited snap count for the rest with that shoulder injury, identified as a torn labrum during a Combine medical exam. He was wearing a protective shoulder harness in minicamp and I presume that's still the case, deferring surgery until next offseason. Who knows what kind of progress he would have made in a healthy senior season. I expect he'll be a spot player this season, maybe not as few as six snaps per game, but limited.

 

[PackAttack12]

Must I say this again?

Never doubt...

Grape. Fruit. Gute.