Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[XPack]

Gary College stats:

Solo Tackles:
2016 - 12
2017 - 25
2018 - 20

Assisted Tackles:
2016 - 11
2017 - 13
2018 - 18

Tackles for Loss:
2016 - 5
2017 - 11.5
2018 - 6.5

Sacks:
2016 - 0.5
2017 - 5.5
2018 - 3.5

Forced Fumbles:
2016 - 0
2017 - 1
2018 - 0

 

[Sunshinepacker]

My opinion on the guy is established; I think he's a workout warrior who underwhelmed at Michigan and was drafted because Gute fell in love with his combine.

That being said; the pick also needs to be evaluated on how much it helps the team. He might be a very good player but he was drafted a month after the Packers spent an enormous amount of money signing the Smiths to play his position on the defense. If he can't beat one of those guys out then why did we draft him at a position where his impact isn't going to be that major playing behind other guys? The 12th overall pick can't be a backup. Now, that's not going to be decided this year, but if he can't turn into a starter on this defense by next year I think people will have a legit reason to start wondering if the pick was the right one.

This might also change if the coaches decide to swap him for Lowry in the starting lineup. If Gary can't beat out one of the Smiths for a starting job (and if he CAN do that then you have to wonder why the team spent so much on the one he beats out) then you have to wonder why the coaches want him playing that much OLB rather than just having him add 10 pounds and playing DE in this defense. Either way, he needs to be playing 40+ snaps (and doing well on those snaps) before I'm willing to start declaring this guy a worthwhile draft pick.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Whatever. Who cares? Just see what he does, and we can debate the merits or lack thereof in a couple of years.

This would be an awfully odd discussion if we only started debating the merits of Kevin King and Josh Jones this year. I mean, do we just not talk about any young player until their second year cause I'm excited about Alexander and Savage RIGHT NOW darnit!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My opinion on the guy is established; I think he's a workout warrior who underwhelmed at Michigan and was drafted because Gute fell in love with his combine.

That being said; the pick also needs to be evaluated on how much it helps the team. He might be a very good player but he was drafted a month after the Packers spent an enormous amount of money signing the Smiths to play his position on the defense. If he can't beat one of those guys out then why did we draft him at a position where his impact isn't going to be that major playing behind other guys? The 12th overall pick can't be a backup. Now, that's not going to be decided this year, but if he can't turn into a starter on this defense by next year I think people will have a legit reason to start wondering if the pick was the right one.

This might also change if the coaches decide to swap him for Lowry in the starting lineup. If Gary can't beat out one of the Smiths for a starting job (and if he CAN do that then you have to wonder why the team spent so much on the one he beats out) then you have to wonder why the coaches want him playing that much OLB rather than just having him add 10 pounds and playing DE in this defense. Either way, he needs to be playing 40+ snaps (and doing well on those snaps) before I'm willing to start declaring this guy a worthwhile draft pick.

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[Packer96]

We coulda had Hockenson...

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

We coulda had Hockenson...

How when we picked 12th and Hockenson was selected 8th Overall?



At first I was going to join the fray, and then I realized that it's Week Two of the NFL 2019 Season. If you homers want to keep talking about college production and Draft picks, then join my thread about the 2020 class in Draft Talk.

Gary has NFL stats, let's talk about those numbers from now on shall we?

 

[Packer96]

trade up, we had our DE's

 

[longtimefan]

My opinion on the guy is established; I think he's a workout warrior who underwhelmed at Michigan and was drafted because Gute fell in love with his combine.

That being said; the pick also needs to be evaluated on how much it helps the team. He might be a very good player but he was drafted a month after the Packers spent an enormous amount of money signing the Smiths to play his position on the defense. If he can't beat one of those guys out then why did we draft him at a position where his impact isn't going to be that major playing behind other guys? The 12th overall pick can't be a backup. Now, that's not going to be decided this year, but if he can't turn into a starter on this defense by next year I think people will have a legit reason to start wondering if the pick was the right one.

This might also change if the coaches decide to swap him for Lowry in the starting lineup. If Gary can't beat out one of the Smiths for a starting job (and if he CAN do that then you have to wonder why the team spent so much on the one he beats out) then you have to wonder why the coaches want him playing that much OLB rather than just having him add 10 pounds and playing DE in this defense. Either way, he needs to be playing 40+ snaps (and doing well on those snaps) before I'm willing to start declaring this guy a worthwhile draft pick.

Maybe he is being taught a new type of role and they have the luxury to ease him in slowly..

Or maybe gute just looks at his combine video with lights off and doors locked

 

[OldSchool101]

I believe our FO knew what some fans just can’t seem to wrap their mind around (or just refuse to offer any level of trust)
We went after an athlete that we thought would bring us the best long term return on investment. I liken it to investing in a stock that might take some time to gain steam, but all the variables that have historically been the common denominator in healthy stocks are present.

I prefer to sit back and relax and let the kid develop. It reminds me of a bunch of new Moms comparing their infants. It’s like a competition to see which one eats a steak first or pops a tooth. Yet people in the know understand that growth varies from child to child and the kids who get their teeth late tend to keep them later. When baby teeth are lost too early, the permanent teeth tend to occupy the void that’s created and often create issues for the adult teeth to come in properly. This issue often creates crowding and crooked teeth.
Im not worried about Rashan, he’s gonna take 7-8 snaps at the NFL level before being in the running for defensive MVP

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I believe our FO knew what some fans just can’t seem to wrap their mind around (or just refuse to offer any level of trust)

While I understand what you mean, I very much doubt that Gute is really thinking too much about "What will the fans think about this guy or that guy?". As long as Gute and his scouts think they are making the best decision for the team and staying within the parameters of the type of personality they want a Packer player to have, fan reaction isn't probably much of a consideration. I only say this knowing a small sample of fans pretty well, this forum. Seems like no matter who the Packers select in the draft each year, some in here love the picks, some hate them and then there is Brandon.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

trade up, we had our DE's

We have Lowry and Adams and HAD Daniels. While Adams looks ascendant we only have a relatively small sample size on him. Plus if he or Lowry gets hurt, who comes on the field? Remember the last roughly 4 seasons the injury bug has bit us hard. Sure Zadarius can come down but then there's a gap at OLB. Fackrell subs in obviously but if there's any other injury what's Gute to do? Bring Perry back?

Some called Gary a luxury pick but I don't see it that way at all. We needed SOMEBODY(with or without Daniels) added to that group.

Secondly, to trade up for Hockenson would have cost us dearly on the back end. Likely you get no Savage(remember we had to trade up for him) or no Jenkins....possibly both. We can only speculate because trades in the 1st Round typically beget more trades.

Overall I'm very pleased with our Draft, even more so seeing picks I wasn't necessarily high on show significant promise(Keke/Summers)

Seems like not matter who the Packers select, some in here love it, some hate it and then there is Brandon.

I miss him so much.

 

[XPack]

I believe our FO knew what some fans just can’t seem to wrap their mind around (or just refuse to offer any level of trust)

Given the recent history of Top 2 picks made by our FO, wonder what inspires this "trust"?.

 

[greengold]

This would be an awfully odd discussion if we only started debating the merits of Kevin King and Josh Jones this year. I mean, do we just not talk about any young player until their second year cause I'm excited about Alexander and Savage RIGHT NOW darnit!

I get what you are saying, Sunshine, but, I feel the subject has been beaten to death. No? I meant no harm with what I said.

Look, I freaked out initially when he was drafted at #12, mostly because I had never considered him a possibility. Stepping back a bit, I realized how well Gutekunst and his staff have done in procuring new talent, and feel they've earned my trust with their selections. If they had Gary as the very top player on their board, then I'm glad they got him.

You do know his pressure on Trubisky was part of the reason for Amos' INT, I'm sure. Pretty significant contribution in one of his 6 snaps. That was BIG pressure. He did have 2 on 6 snaps.

-----

XPack, first two picks in the last 3 drafts ought to do it?

King, Jones, Alexander, Jackson, Gary, Savage... Seems there alone with that small sample is a pretty good set of players. Jones didn't work out. Alexander and Savage look like rockstars. King is incredible when healthy - shut down CB who may surprise many this season. Jackson was considered a R1 pick and a steal in R2 - though he has yet to produce at the level we want, he's got tremendous ball skills and instincts to create TOs. He's been hampered by injury and is learning press coverage at the NFL level after spending his career at Iowa in zone. Trust? I see ONE miss, for an 84% success rate thus far (neither King, Jackson, nor Gary have failed to this point). The NFL is littered with misses, like, Josh Jones level misses in the first two selections.

Check this out on draft success rates... https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/

Figure Pro Football reference uses an Approximate Value stat where 5 or above is the definition of a solid first round pick, where AV 5 = a decent but unspectacular season in the NFL. Here are numbers they compiled for drafts since 2011:

Pick area 1-5 = 77.1% success rate
Pick area 6-10 = 51.4% success rate
Pick area 11-15 = 57.1% success rate
Pick area 16-20 = 51.4% success rate
Pick area 21-32 = 47.0% success rate

Compare that with what the Packers have done with the first two picks in the last 3 drafts, and I'd say Gutekunst and his staff have done well, knowing Gutekunst worked under Ted 2017.

Also, here is a great abstract study on drafts "Success or Bust?" https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad

Pro Football Reference put out a metric to measure draft success of players drafted over the last 20 years, all rounds:
16.7% didn't play for the team that drafted them
37% were considered worthless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were considered average
6.9% were considered great
1% were considered legendary

If you want a really good mind melt on drafting success, here you go, but, know you were warned...

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Again, let's see what Rashan does, as well as the rest of them.

So, back to Gary....

 

[sschind]

I believe our FO knew what some fans just can’t seem to wrap their mind around (or just refuse to offer any level of trust)
We went after an athlete that we thought would bring us the best long term return on investment. I liken it to investing in a stock that might take some time to gain steam, but all the variables that have historically been the common denominator in healthy stocks are present.

I prefer to sit back and relax and let the kid develop. It reminds me of a bunch of new Moms comparing their infants. It’s like a competition to see which one eats a steak first or pops a tooth. Yet people in the know understand that growth varies from child to child and the kids who get their teeth late tend to keep them later. When baby teeth are lost too early, the permanent teeth tend to occupy the void that’s created and often create issues for the adult teeth to come in properly. This issue often creates crowding and crooked teeth.
Im not worried about Rashan, he’s gonna take 7-8 snaps at the NFL level before being in the running for defensive MVP

Now there is a post you can sink your teeth into.

Seriously though I think there is almost no way Gary lives up to some fans expectations. They didn't like the pick so they will look for every possible negative and rail on it until they can come up with a new one. Unless is a perrenial all pro for 15 seasons he wont be good enough. Even if he is they will complain that he didn't win DPOY every year and of he does that they will simply say "if he is that good he should have had more more than 9.5 sacks in college."

I'm not picking on anyone in particular. I'm speaking in general terms of fans as I think it happens with pretty much every draft pick. I only used the sack total to try and inject a bit of humor and not to say that I think anyone here using that argument will feel that way.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I miss him so much.

Do you really think Brandon will stay away, even if he is banned?

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[AmishMafia]

Gute certainly earned a degree of 'benefit of the doubt' based on the returns of his first effort. I like the look so far of his 2nd draft as well. There are guys who can really help this team.

Very interesting that 11-15 rate is higher than 6th-10.

Certainly every player has a degree of risk and a level of reward associated. We are now in a wait and see situation.

I tried to find pressure stats for Gary as many hang their hat on it. I was only able to find the PFF stats below which shows he was not very good at pressures either, ranking 64th in the country based on a per snap basis. Josh Allen, for example, had a pass rush production over 30, while Gary is at 16.7.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-rashan-gary-is-not-a-first-round-talent

Anyway, he should get some opportunities in Minny. They have a poor Oline and i think our run defense will contain cook better than AZ did. Forcing more pass plays and ruh opportunities.

 

[greengold]

Crazy that according to the PFR study only 17.5% of all players drafted over the last 20 years are ranked Average-Great. More than 80% are ranked Poor or worse. 1% Legendary.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I believe our FO knew what some fans just can’t seem to wrap their mind around (or just refuse to offer any level of trust)
We went after an athlete that we thought would bring us the best long term return on investment. I liken it to investing in a stock that might take some time to gain steam, but all the variables that have historically been the common denominator in healthy stocks are present.

I prefer to sit back and relax and let the kid develop. It reminds me of a bunch of new Moms comparing their infants. It’s like a competition to see which one eats a steak first or pops a tooth. Yet people in the know understand that growth varies from child to child and the kids who get their teeth late tend to keep them later. When baby teeth are lost too early, the permanent teeth tend to occupy the void that’s created and often create issues for the adult teeth to come in properly. This issue often creates crowding and crooked teeth.
Im not worried about Rashan, he’s gonna take 7-8 snaps at the NFL level before being in the running for defensive MVP

Spending the 12th overall pick on a guy that you don't anticipate being able to contribute for 3-4 years doesn't qualify as a very good pick; that's not what top-12 draft picks are for. You have a high draft pick locked up for 4 years at a low cost (in the first round it's 4 years at low cost and potentially a 5th at a moderate cost). Why in the world would you want to waste that chance on a developmental guy that high in the draft? Again, I'm not saying it's impossible that he contributes, but your contention basically comes down to "the FO knew he would take a few years to develop so they signed expensive guys to play his position while he developed and when he actually develops we'll be able to move on from one of the expensive guys just in time to make Gary an expensive guy". I just wonder about the decision to basically draft a back-up OLB as the 12th overall player.

 

[Mondio]

They all take development, they all don't start hitting their peak until years 3,4,5,6. His ceiling is beyond almost anyone taken in this last draft at his position, and by a lot. AJ Hawk was NFL ready and everyone is disappointed because he wasn't better. Gary has the physical attributes to be off the charts good, but needs a bit of refinement and has the benefit of it because of 2 excellent FA acquisitions and still some people aren't happy.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Spending the 12th overall pick on a guy that you don't anticipate being able to contribute for 3-4 years doesn't qualify as a very good pick

Maybe I missed someones post claiming that it would take that long to develop Gary, but seems like you are creating a strawman argument with that? If not, my apologies, but I have never seen someone state that they felt it would take 3-4 years to develop him.

That said, people who think he already should be a starter and producing like a top starter, aren't being patient enough IMO. Look around the league and the history of draft picks and tell me when a #12 pick, yet alone sometimes a top 5 pick is an instant producer. Gary wasn't drafted just for the sacks he had at Michigan, he was drafted with the 12th pick because of what the Packers felt was a guy that they could develop into a very good player. How long that takes depends on a lot of variables.

 

[GleefulGary]

Gute certainly earned a degree of 'benefit of the doubt' based on the returns of his first effort. I like the look so far of his 2nd draft as well. There are guys who can really help this team.

Very interesting that 11-15 rate is higher than 6th-10.

Certainly every player has a degree of risk and a level of reward associated. We are now in a wait and see situation.

I tried to find pressure stats for Gary as many hang their hat on it. I was only able to find the PFF stats below which shows he was not very good at pressures either, ranking 64th in the country based on a per snap basis. Josh Allen, for example, had a pass rush production over 30, while Gary is at 16.7.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-rashan-gary-is-not-a-first-round-talent

Anyway, he should get some opportunities in Minny. They have a poor Oline and i think our run defense will contain cook better than AZ did. Forcing more pass plays and ruh opportunities.

I'd simply like to point out that college PFF is awful, and I don't trust any of their metrics there.

Hell, they said Josh Jackson was good at press man, when he never even did that!

 

[GleefulGary]

Crazy that according to the PFR study only 17.5% of all players drafted over the last 20 years are ranked Average-Great. More than 80% are ranked Poor or worse. 1% Legendary.

Most players drafted don't pan out.

People forget that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Most Many players drafted don't pan out.

People forget that.

Corrected that for you At least in my opinion. Especially, when you are talking about first rounders.

 

[greengold]

They all take development, they all don't start hitting their peak until years 3,4,5,6. His ceiling is beyond almost anyone taken in this last draft at his position, and by a lot. AJ Hawk was NFL ready and everyone is disappointed because he wasn't better. Gary has the physical attributes to be off the charts good, but needs a bit of refinement and has the benefit of it because of 2 excellent FA acquisitions and still some people aren't happy.

I swear, some people expected him to start piling up sacks for the Packers before OTAs even started...

All he did last Thursday against the Bears was bring an insane amount of heat on Trubisky forcing him to throw high on the Amos pick, and had another QB pressure in just 6 snaps... What a loser.

 

[OldSchool101]

That said, people who think he already should be a starter and producing like a top starter, aren't being patient enough IMO. Look around the league and the history of draft picks and tell me when a #12 pick, yet alone sometimes a top 5 pick is an instant producer. Gary wasn't drafted just for the sacks he had at Michigan, he was drafted with the 12th pick because of what the Packers felt was a guy that they could develop into a very good player. How long that takes depends on a lot of variables.

I think he took my buying “Stock” analogy a little too seriously.
It can take that long for a stock to show but more often even those don’t take 3-4 years. We’ve got a bunch of Wall Street Day Traders around here
If the investment doesn’t pay immediate dividends we find the nearest bridge and threaten to jump. I’m ok with that if you’re in my way coming home. Don’t hold up traffic. J/K. You know I love my Packer brothers n sisters