Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[HardRightEdge]

"Your honor, I would conclude that there is not enough substantial evidence yet available or presented by either side to prove something that hasn't occurred yet. Given that, I would petition the court to set aside making a ruling until such time that concrete evidence actually has occurred and thus exists".

Dismissed without prejudice would be the legal term.

 

[AmishMafia]

Well, if you're going to still assess a player on his college stats one game into his pro career, then you have some 'splaining to do with regards to this, from PFF:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-grading-all-32-first-round-picks-after-week-1-of-the-2019-nfl-season

"PICK NO. 5: LB DEVIN WHITE, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2019 overall grade: 43.1

White got off to a rocky start against the pass in this one. He allowed completions on all six of the throws into his primary coverage — giving up 65 total yards and 55 yards after the catch in the process — and he was held pressureless on his eight snaps as a pass-rusher. There were a few positives, however, as his three coverage stops this week led all first-year defenders."

As I noted pre-draft, if you scour White's highlight tapes, as that of most college ILBs, you won't see him doing much past 5 or so yards from the line of scrimage. Oh, sure, he's instinctual, quick to the hole and makes plays sideline-to-sideline with his speed. Whether a case of scheme requirements against all those spread option offenses or some coverage deficiency, he wasn't asked to be the 360 degree player a 3-down NFL ILB needs to be. Now he's chasing down NFL receivers instead of covering them in his opening game.

So, as one entertains the possibility that a college player's underwhelming stats might be a function of his role in the defense (chucking TEs is something Gary's Michigan coach says he was asked to do quite a bit), consider the other side of the coin, what a college player might not be asked to do that might otherwise expose him.

Will White eventually be a good coverage ILB? Probably. Possibly not. You'll just have to wait and see. The point being the NFL is a different game than college ball.

By the way, speed-to-power is not some Combine number. If one bothers to look it is evident on the football field. That's raw material you can work with that doesn't come by way of a stopwatch.

As for, "Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well:"

I think you meant "hurry" which is in fact a good statistic to have. Pressures encompass hurries, hits and sacks. Hits are an even better stat to have than hurries. I like hits quite a bit myself.

That hurts. White was my guy. Some guys do great in college and poor in the pros. Some guys do great in both. Few players do poor in college and then succeed in the pros.

The only point i am trying to make is that lack of sacks should be a red flag. Scheme is not a good excuse becaus he should still get some shots in 1400 snaps. Unless someone believes the satirical coaching transcript is true and he was taught to not get sacks.

I do believe he will do well. Mostly because of ZSmith and the bond they seem to have. If he he follows that example, he will be a good player for us.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That hurts. White was my guy. Some guys do great in college and poor in the pros. Some guys do great in both. Few players do poor in college and then succeed in the pros.

The only point i am trying to make is that lack of sacks should be a red flag. Scheme is not a good excuse becaus he should still get some shots in 1400 snaps. Unless someone believes the satirical coaching transcript is true and he was taught to not get sacks.

I do believe he will do well. Mostly because of ZSmith and the bond they seem to have. If he he follows that example, he will be a good player for us.

I think you contradicted yourself. Do you think he will be a good player or not?

I, for one, think he will be with Smith having little to do with that beyond the axiom that players play better the better the players around them happen to be. But that's to be seen.

 

[greengold]

Turns out you guys were right. Found clip of pregame talk on Michigan sidelines last season. Transcribed here:

DC: All right defense, lets get out there and really get after them!
Gary: Yeah! Lets sack the QB!
DC: Well, everyone else but you, Gary.
Gary: Jeeze coach, why not me?
DC: Its not our scheme.
Gary: This is the last place team in the SEC. They are starting a freshman OT who looks very slow. I could easily rack up 5 sacks today.
DC: Oh we want to sack him, just not you. We want you to run around there in the backfield and just get close. You know, make them hurry up.
Gary: You don't want me to sack him?
DC: Nope. Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well.
Gary: umm, okay.

Amish, where did you find that? Is it credible?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Amish, where did you find that? Is it credible?

He made it up, man.

Just so we're clear about what those edge "stats" happen to be:

• Hurries
• Hits
• Sacks
• Forced fumbles
• Tackles for loss
• Missed tackles
• Solo tackles
• Total tackles
• Passes defended
• And maybe intereceptions if the guy gets many drops in coverage

Looking only at sacks is a shallow dive into a deep pool.

 

[Dantés]

 

[greengold]

Jesus H.

Thanks, boys...! That's pretty F'ing good. Hello HUMP day. Kind of funny, but, that is not far from how he was utilized there. I might need to take a vacation or something.

 

[Mondio]

Jesus H.

Thanks, boys...! That's pretty F'ing good. Hello HUMP day. Kind of funny, but, that is not far from how he was utilized there. I might need to take a vacation or something.

what kind of paints are you using? maybe open a window

 

[AmishMafia]

I think you contradicted yourself. Do you think he will be a good player or not?

I, for one, think he will be with Smith having little to do with that beyond the axiom that players play better the better the players around them happen to be. But that's to be seen.

I do. I always thought he could be, but was too likely a bust based on lack of production and pursuit of distractions. Thought we should not risk such a high pick. Its not a contradiction because i have not been saying he is a bust. Just arguing the point that lack of sacks in college is a red flag.

 

[greengold]

Yeah. It's been a lot of work moving through here. Jammin'!

 

[greengold]

I do. I always thought he could be, but was too likely a bust based on lack of production and pursuit of distractions. Thought we should not risk such a high pick. Its not a contradiction because i have not been saying he is a bust. Just arguing the point that lack of sacks in college is a red flag.

When the very top of your draft board has his name on it and he's there, you take him... That's what it sounded like in Gutes' post draft pressser. I'm not going to argue it. Personally, Gutekunst has earned my trust moving forward. He's done a nice job transforming this team in just two offseasons. A lot left to prove, but, I like what we've been seeing and hearing all through TC and game one with the new players added.

 

[sschind]

Look at 6 snaps and ignore the first 1400.

He looked great at times in college. Then against Notre Dame he gets ragdolled all day by a freshman OT.

At 6 snaps a game he's going to have to play for 14.5 years before he hits 1400 snaps. I sure hope he doesn't miss any games or we will never be able to tell if he is a better pro player than college player.

Okay. I'm a farmer. My role on the farm is more of a crop management type. Now I can run a combine, I can fix a combine, but that's not my main role, somebody else does that. My job is more difficult to fill, so that's where I go. It makes the whole operation run better. Ie, if I ran the combine but had somebody else doing my main job who isn't as qualified, the whole operation would suffer.

Knowing that, would it be fair to penalize or criticize me on my lack of combine operating? My job may not be as visible to the common person, but it's more important and makes the whole thing run well. Don Brown, Michigan's DC, would argue the same thing for Gary. Brown had multiple very good players on his defense, yet he said multiple times that Gary was what made it successful, and that he was productive.

I'll take his word, over a stat page, thank you very much.

Yeah but once you are a professional farmer combine numbers are irrelevant. Besides how well you drive a combine for 40 yards in your underwear doesn't translate well in the pros.

Turns out you guys were right. Found clip of pregame talk on Michigan sidelines last season. Transcribed here:

DC: All right defense, lets get out there and really get after them!
Gary: Yeah! Lets sack the QB!
DC: Well, everyone else but you, Gary.
Gary: Jeeze coach, why not me?
DC: Its not our scheme.
Gary: This is the last place team in the SEC. They are starting a freshman OT who looks very slow. I could easily rack up 5 sacks today.
DC: Oh we want to sack him, just not you. We want you to run around there in the backfield and just get close. You know, make them hurry up.
Gary: You don't want me to sack him?
DC: Nope. Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well.
Gary: umm, okay.

I wanted to disagree with this as I think all the "he didn't do nothin in college" people are too focused on sacks but I only had 1 rating to give and it was just too funny, even though I disagree, to waste it.

I notice you dont think the Packers will be in any playoff games as long as Gary is a player. Thats a little harsh . . .

playoff stats are not included in official stats so I chose not to include them. In reality, because of Gary, it will only take him about 12 . Unless they go to an 18 game season. Its hard to compute that because we do not know when and if it will happen although I am guessing 2022 after the new CBA..

 

[AmishMafia]

At 6 snaps a game he's going to have to play for 14.5 years before he hits 1400 snaps. I sure hope he doesn't miss any games or we will never be able to tell if he is a better pro player than college player.

I notice you dont think the Packers will be in any playoff games as long as Gary is a player. Thats a little harsh . . .

 

[Heyjoe4]

He made it up, man.

Just so we're clear about what those edge "stats" happen to be:

• Hurries
• Hits
• Sacks
• Forced fumbles
• Tackles for loss
• Missed tackles
• Solo tackles
• Total tackles
• Passes defended
• And maybe intereceptions if the guy gets many drops in coverage

Looking only at sacks is a shallow dive into a deep pool.

Good point. There were two pressures in particular Sunday night resulting in an incompletion deep in the red zone, and an interception. Sacks aren’t the only thing required for a rusher to impact a game.

 

[AmishMafia]

He made it up, man.

Just so we're clear about what those edge "stats" happen to be:

• Hurries
• Hits
• Sacks
• Forced fumbles
• Tackles for loss
• Missed tackles
• Solo tackles
• Total tackles
• Passes defended
• And maybe intereceptions if the guy gets many drops in coverage

Looking only at sacks is a shallow dive into a deep pool.

Would you agree that short of a turnover, the passrush goal is a sack?

Pressures and hits help, but the goal is to sack the QB.

Would you also agree that if you are significantly faster, stronger, quicker than your opponent, sacking the QB is easier?

Would you also agree that in 1400 snaps there will be broken plays and missed assignments allowing for a handful of 'gimmes'?

Would you think that 9.5 sacks was an expected number of sacks for Gary?

 

[sschind]

Would you agree that short of a turnover, the passrush goal is a sack?

Pressures and hits help, but the goal is to sack the QB.

Would you also agree that if you are significantly faster, stronger, quicker than your opponent, sacking the QB is easier?

Would you also agree that in 1400 snaps there will be broken plays and missed assignments allowing for a handful of 'gimmes'?

Would you think that 9.5 sacks was an expected number of sacks for Gary?

IMO on plays where the opposing team is attempting to pass the ball the goal for the pass rush is to keep the QB from completing the pass and any pass rush that results in the QB not completing the pass is a successful pass rush. If that is because of a sack, a pressure or a hurry or a hit or from making him laugh so hard at your ineptitude that he completely misses the WR its all pretty much the same.

For me the most important stat a defense can have against the pass is how many incompletions they can make the opposing QB have. They can sack him 10 times a game but if they give up a completions on the other plays that result in TDs the sacks really don't help. The Bears sacked Rodgers 5 times. The Packers sacked Trubisky 5 times. What was the difference in the game? The 1 completion Rodgers had for a TD. I'm guessing Nagy would give up all 5 of those sacks just to have Rodgers pressured into an incompletion on that one play.

 

[XPack]

He made it up, man.

Just so we're clear about what those edge "stats" happen to be:

• Hurries
• Hits
• Sacks
• Forced fumbles
• Tackles for loss
• Missed tackles
• Solo tackles
• Total tackles
• Passes defended
• And maybe intereceptions if the guy gets many drops in coverage

Looking only at sacks is a shallow dive into a deep pool.

Any idea what Gary's numbers in above are?

 

[AmishMafia]

Upon further reflection i understand some confusion. I am discussing if sack totals should be considered in college scouting which i still feel is relevant.

I am not saying Gary is a bust because of a lack of sacks.

I think he will suceed in the NFL and i was encouraged by his performance on Thursday.

However, at the time of the pick i was very down on the pick.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Would you agree that short of a turnover, the passrush goal is a sack?

Pressures and hits help, but the goal is to sack the QB.

That's an all-or-nothing way to look at it. By that measure, there are no good edge rushers at all.

Mack recorded 12.5 sacks on 755 snaps last season. By that logic he was a failure on 98.3% of his snaps. In point of fact, his 6 forced fumbles (some or all of which came on those sacks) would be more valuable than the sack count itself.

12.5 sacks against you over a season may not be any more damaging than one holding call per game against your O-Lineman, and those penalties are rarely discussed because box scores and aggreate stats don't smack you in the face with them.

 

[AmishMafia]

That's an all-or-nothing way to look at it. By that measure, there are no good edge rushers at all.

Mack recorded 12.5 sacks on 755 snaps last season. By that logic he was a failure on 98.3% of his snaps. In point of fact, his 6 forced fumbles (some or all of which came on those sackes) would be more valuable than the sack count itself.

You are trying to read what you want to hear. I said pressures and hits help. How do you interpret that as thinking its a failure?

Come on, you are better than that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You are trying to read what you want to hear. I said pressures and hits help. How do you interpret that as thinking its a failure?

Come on, you are better than that.

You asked, "Would you agree that short of a turnover, the passrush goal is a sack?"

I'm pointing out that it isn't because it can't be. It's merely one of the better of several positive outcomes.

 

[Dantés]

I do. I always thought he could be, but was too likely a bust based on lack of production and pursuit of distractions. Thought we should not risk such a high pick. Its not a contradiction because i have not been saying he is a bust. Just arguing the point that lack of sacks in college is a red flag.

To say that his lack of production was/is a red flag is totally reasonable. I think you lose people, though, when you use the analogy of a receiver who caught 4 passes a season in college. That comparion basically implies that Gary was a useless player, which is obviously a lot more of an extreme take than simply pointing out a red flag.

But to your point, most often a pass rusher's goal is the sack. Sometimes the goal is to keep the QB in the pocket. Sometimes the goal is to shove a blocker way upfield so a stunt is successful. But yes, a sack is the most common goal. And Gary didn't get it done as often as he should have in college AND they were not always asking him to be that guy.

 

[AmishMafia]

You asked, "Would you agree that short of a turnover, the passrush goal is a sack?"

I'm pointing out that it isn't because it can't be. It's merely one of the better of several positive outcomes.

Huh? Thats ridiculous. Since when is not getting to your goal a failure. By your definition, Lombardi was a failure. His goal was pefection. By chasing perfection he knew he would achieve excellence.

Do you think there is a single OLB in the NFL whos goal is to not sack the QB on every pass play?

Enough. You are just trying to be ridiculous.

 

[AmishMafia]

To say that his lack of production was/is a red flag is totally reasonable. I think you lose people, though, when you use the analogy of a receiver who caught 4 passes a season in college. That comparion basically implies that Gary was a useless player, which is obviously a lot more of an extreme take than simply pointing out a red flag.

But to your point, most often a pass rusher's goal is the sack. Sometimes the goal is to keep the QB in the pocket. Sometimes the goal is to shove a blocker way upfield so a stunt is successful. But yes, a sack is the most common goal. And Gary didn't get it done as often as he should have in college AND they were not always asking him to be that guy.

We are actually in complete agreement.

Yes sometimes a OLBs responsibility is contain, and sometimes its cover the TE. But i think we are talking about pass rushing plays. The goal for a OLB rushing the passer is a sack. Not getting close and causing him to hurry, but a sack. A hurry or a hit still allows the possibility of a completed pass.

You are correct on my poor analogy. I think if i can exaggerate the situation, it will make the point better. Gary was a very good player for Michigan.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Good point. There were two pressures in particular Sunday night resulting in an incompletion deep in the red zone, and an interception. Sacks aren’t the only thing required for a rusher to impact a game.

Not pertaining to Gary on these scant 6 snaps, but there's another stat that you can look long and hard for and won't find: holds against. Who were the most frequently held edge rushers in the NFL last season? I don't know, but a sack opportunity denied in lieu of a 10 yard penalty certainly should accrue to the defensive player in some way. Maybe PFF's full subscription service would have tabulated that data. I'd want to see declined holds included. The object is not a sack. The object is to beat the blocker. Out of that can come a variety of good things.

On the subject of "hits", I don't believe they are an official NFL stat, but Elias started crediting them as though they were starting in 2006. For example, you'll find them in ESPN box scores and in the season totals at pro-football-reference. I've never seen a 1/2 hit credited as they do with sacks. They must give it to the guy they see as "first contact".

Now, if Trubisky had tucked the ball and taken the sack on the play he got whacked by P. Smith and Gary, would they have split the sack? Probably. But they don't split hits. So, give him a 1/2 hit if you like.

Hurries are in the eye of the beholder.

But the bottom line is extracting stats out of a 6 snap sample size is kind of pointless. The takeaway is he executed those stunts way better than in preseason, and showed a little of that speed-to-power he was drafted for.