OFFICIAL Packers Vs Bears Week 1 thread

[TJV]

Not exactly Secretariat-like fast starts.

Actually they are: Secretariat was known for slow starts, except in his most famous win at the Belmont Stakes.

Here’s McGinn’s preview of the game: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-next-opponent-bears-b99572540z1-325847271.html

Any Packers fan in need of perspective only needs to read this to be thankful not to be a Bears fan. BTW, if the Packers sweep the Bears this season they will tie the series 93-93-6. McGinn quotes personnel men around the league predicting a Packers victory by 23-17, 24-10, 27-14. Last I checked the Packers are 7-point favorites in Vegas. The Bears have a lot of problems, from having to pay too much for their starting QB (and therefor having to keep him), an injury-depleted WR corp, an unsettled OL, to installing a new scheme on D. In time I expect Pace and Fox to run a much better program than Emery and Trestman but it’ll take them some time to clean up the mess they inherited.

I will be interested to see how the Packers D performs generally and specifically vs. the Bears’ running game. Also who they match up on TE Martellus Bennett and Forte out of the backfield in the passing game, and of course how well they do in those matchups.

IMO Fox got the better of McCarthy in their first pregame verbal battle:

Last Wednesday, at the Packers’ annual fan luncheon welcoming them home from training camp, coach Mike McCarthy played to the crowd by saying: “We will proudly stand as the 95th team in the history of the Green Bay Packers when we kick Chicago’s *****!” The declaration received a roar at the luncheon. Not so much at Halas Hall, where Fox preferred Monday to lie in the weeds and focus on the deficiencies in last year’s losses. “I looked at the tape,” Fox said. “They should be confident.” Despite Fox’s outward calm, expect McCarthy’s words to be posted around Bears headquarters this week.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-john-fox-mike-mccarthy-20150907-story.html

Certainly not a big deal but I prefer humble to braggadocio, even this mild a version of it. Anyway, that did seem a bit out of McCarthy’s MO and Fox handled it well IMO. Likely the only "victory" Fox will enjoy after Sunday.

* He didn't say "****". He said a word which IMO should be allowed here and never bleeped on TV.

 

[Sky King]

If John Fox manages to pull-off the improbable and win the opener and later follows that up with a Thanksgiving Day miracle, he gets a statue at the main entrance to Soldier Field.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Besides Jeffery being unlikely to play, Kevin White, the 7th. pick in the draft and Marshall's replacement, is out indefinitely with a stress fracture.

Regardless of Jeffery's availability, Shields has owned him.

If Jeffery sits, the Bears top WR is Eddie Royal, a decent player in the possession receiver mold, but hardly fear inspiring. The other wide outs are relative unknowns, with only a handful of career catches.

That leaves Cutler with Bennett, Royal and Forte (who set the NFL single season RB record with 102 catches last season), a collection of possession receivers, as his primary targets. This could be an interesting test of the iffy ILB coverage that looks to still be a carryover from last season. I say "could" because with the lack of a Bears deep threat, Capers may choose to play a lot of single-high safety and use Burnett to crowd the short passing lanes or man up on Forte. However, since Capers favors the blitz on principle, while Cutler is immobile and makes mistakes under pressure, the blitz packages should provide a reasonable number of ILB isolation coverage snaps.

As for the cover corner question mark opposite Shields, we may have to wait until week 2 to get a better idea of what's what. One would think the collection of no-names opposite Royal would not present problems. It will be interesting to see who Capers/Whitt put out there when Hayward moves to nickel/dime, assuming he does so. If Cutler is able to exploit the matchup against Hayward/?, then "Houston, we have a problem".

On the other side of the ball, the Bears are switching to a 3-4 under Fangio. Packer unfamiliarity with new Bears players and others in different roles should provide some kind of edge. Fangio ran a hybrid 3-4 in SF, using lighter and quicker linemen, various line spacing, and moving Justin Smith around. He looks to be going the same route in Chicago with 300 pounders across the line in the base D. He doesn't have a Justin Smith, but with Allen OLB on the depth chart, we may see him moving around in various roles, standing up and with hand in the dirt.

However, the defensive talent, particularly the SF All Pro front 7 talent, Fangio enjoyed in SF in not present in this Bears group. The Bears ability to slow down the Packer offense will hinge on Fangio staying a step ahead of Clements/Rodgers. But talent wins out, and the vet Packer O-Line should be able to handle any variety of looks Fangio puts out there given the Bears collection of talent.

If the Packers get out in front early with a couple of TDs to put pressure on Cutler to go down field, it could be the stroll in the park some think it will be. Barring that, this game could be a lot closer than many believe.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Besides Jeffery being unlikely to play.

According to Ian Rapoport it looks like Jeffery is going to play on Sunday.

 

[HardRightEdge]

According to Ian Rapoport it looks like Jeffery is going to play on Sunday.

That's fine. He'll be rusty and Shields has owned him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

IMO Fox got the better of McCarthy in their first pregame verbal battle:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-john-fox-mike-mccarthy-20150907-story.html

Certainly not a big deal but I prefer humble to braggadocio, even this mild a version of it. Anyway, that did seem a bit out of McCarthy’s MO and Fox handled it well IMO. Likely the only "victory" Fox will enjoy after Sunday.

As I understand it, "annual fan luncheon", the term used in this link, sounds like a mischaracterization. As I understand it, it was the Chamber of Commerce annual luncheon. With the Packers morphing into part football organization, part real estate and business development organization, the Chamber represents an important and concentrated constituency.

Like some politicians who don't think their comments will be reported or who just get carried away in the moment, McCarthy was throwing some red meat to the business base. It's not a big deal, as you say, since everybody knows this is uncharacteristic of McCarthy, but I think it's safe to say the "face of the franchise" role vis a vis local business interests should be left to Murphy.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFC. Losing to them in week 1 would for sure be a terrible start, especially with McCarthy's emphasis on getting out of the gate fast.

McCarthy emphasizes getting out of the gate fast every year, with mixed success. His optimism is typically tempered with the assessment that youth and inexperience at key positions may not round into shape until later in the season, a quite acceptable premise.

It's widely accepted and well evidenced that the first 3 weeks of NFL football are a generally sloppy affair as teams work out the kinks, build chemistry with free agents and inexperienced players, while players with light preseason work play their way into contact condition and money game focus.

In line with this thinking goes the bromide that seasons are not won or lost in the first 3 games.

However, home playoff games can be lost early, a fact certainly not lost on McCarthy. This fact will come into high focus in week 2. First things first...a solid all-around performance against the Bears as a prelude to Seattle.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here’s McGinn’s preview of the game: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-next-opponent-bears-b99572540z1-325847271.html

McGinn's take is always worth a read, with his detailed bottom up, sum-of-the-parts approach. Some of the other guys, Demovsky and Silverstein come to mind, tend to provide a more top down feel to things. It's all good.

On the matter of McGinn's nuts and bolts, I take some interest in the Bears D-Line weights that he cited. While I overlooked Ratliff's suspension, with the big body Goldman starting at NT, in describing the Bears D-Line as a lighter group, I couldn't help but note the following:

McGinn listed the weights as follows:

Ferguson: 315
Jenkins: 315

The Bears web site and ESPN, respectively, list these guys as follows:

Ferguson: 309 / 300
Jenkins: 300 / 300
Ratliff: 303 / 303

I wonder where McGinn gets his info?

In any case, Goldman was a guy frequently in the Packer 1st. round pick discussions in these pages, at least until Raji was re-signed. It will be interesting to see how he does, as will be the case with Kendricks.

 

[sschind]

IMO Fox got the better of McCarthy in their first pregame verbal battle:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-john-fox-mike-mccarthy-20150907-story.html

Certainly not a big deal but I prefer humble to braggadocio, even this mild a version of it. Anyway, that did seem a bit out of McCarthy’s MO and Fox handled it well IMO. Likely the only "victory" Fox will enjoy after Sunday.

* He didn't say "****". He said a word which IMO should be allowed here and never bleeped on TV.

I agree with you on the humble vs braggadocio thing but like HRE said this was a little different situation than a press conference before the game. I don't think there is any way MM says anything like this if it was in a more of an official capacity. It was a comment to fans or in this case the COC and it was more to get them fired up. Like Wayne Larrivee said "what was he supposed to say ""we are going to try really hard to beat them"" I understand it may have the same effect on the Fox and the Bears but it doesn't really bother me. Its going to get blown way out of proportion if you ask me.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

McCarthy emphasizes getting out of the gate fast every year, with mixed success. His optimism is typically tempered with the assessment that youth and inexperience at key positions may not round into shape until later in the season, a quite acceptable premise.

It seems McCarthy made some changes to practice this offseason though to be better prepared entering week 1.

 

[JBlood]

If we play the way we did in the Chicago game last Sept, we'll likely lose. The Bears outgained us 496 yds to 358; outrushed us 256 yds to 56; had 33 first downs to our 21; and kept the ball for 36+ minutes while scoring only 17 points. It's not the ideal way to win a game. You can't depend on the other team's ineptness for a win, even if Cutler is at the helm. I see us winning, but not in a laugher.

 

[yooperpackfan]

If we play the way we did in the Chicago game last Sept, we'll likely lose. The Bears outgained us 496 yds to 358; outrushed us 256 yds to 56; had 33 first downs to our 21; and kept the ball for 36+ minutes while scoring only 17 points. It's not the ideal way to win a game. You can't depend on the other team's ineptness for a win, even if Cutler is at the helm. I see us winning, but not in a laugher.

Packers off to a slow start again but get an ugly win.
Packers 17- Bears 13.

 

[TJV]

I’m not as sure of the defense, but I expect the Packers will be able to score against the Bears. I was worried Lang might have to sit out but since he’s practiced, he’ll be playing. They may have to give Bakhtiari help if he’s not fully recovered but Rodgers should be as mobile as ever in the pocket.

I mentioned before the concern expressed on Bear radio about the Bears secondary ability to cover the Packers WRs – my guess is that concern is legit. They’ll be rolling out a new scheme on D for the first time in a game that counts. With the Packers OL almost(?) healthy, the balance Lacy and the running game provide, and the way Rodgers takes care of the ball, I think the Packers will put up a lot of points. Can the Bears keep up? I doubt it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I mentioned before the concern expressed on Bear radio about the Bears secondary ability to cover the Packers WRs – my guess is that concern is legit.

Especially like the matchup in the slot with Sherrick McManis as the Bears nickel corner trying to cover Cobb. The former fifth-round pick by the Texans has played a total of 89 snaps during his five-year career in the NFL and now somehow has ended up being the nickel cornerback with the Bears.

 

[JBlood]

My inappropriate (for some) post for the week:

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[JBlood]

Wow, the censors are out early.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Are we ??? I don't think we touched it mate.

 

[Poppa San]

Maybe you have to get the image saved outside of your mail box before copying the link. Or just post your email login data.

 

[JBlood]

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[Ceodore]

I know were big favorites, but the division games always make me nervous. They'll be hungry and i hope we dont get caught being rusty/looking past them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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[HardRightEdge]

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Forget whether it's inoffensive. It makes no sense.

 

[rodell330]

24-16 Packers...defense scores a touchdown.

 

[Carl]

38 - 22 Packers

 

[Megatron]

I have a feeling Cobb isn't as hurt as it's being let on. He has said he will play on Sunday, and without Nelson I wonder if Rodgers plans to feed Cobb the ball early and often?