It won’t be that bad, but I fear you are right. I don’t see the Packers winning.
Have you watched any Packers and Tampa Bay games this year? The way to beating the Packers is control time of possession with the run game. Tampa averages 2:1 pass:run. Even if Brady plays the best game of his season, even if Rodgers plays his worst, their passing attack, just gives Rodgers the ball back quicker.
The Packers gold zone efficiency is 80% and 75% in the last 3 games. The Tampa Bay defense red zone efficiency is 63% and 64% in the past 3 games (meaning their opponents score 63-64% of the time they get into the red zone). They have thrown 50 passing TDs; 18 rushing touchdowns and turned the ball over 11 times on offense. They average 4.9 yards per carry. Mason Crosby is 100% on field goals and missed 4 extra points.
Conversely, Tampa Bays red zone efficiency is 63% and 37% in the last 3 games. The Packers red zone defense is 58% and in the last 3 games 40%. They have thrown 46 passing TDs; 18 rushing TDs and turned the ball over 14 times in one more games played than the Packers. Their kicker is 90% on field goals and has missed 5 extra points.
If Bill Bellichik was on the other side of the ball, it would warrant being nervous. He would know the ONLY way to beat the Packers at home is to own time of possession by running it down their throats. Bruce Arians and TB12 want to throw the ball. Throwing the ball, just gives the best offense in the league the ball back quicker. If the Packers turn the ball over less than 2 times, statstically speaking, they win the game. Their game plan should be the exact same game plan as Saturday night. Establish the run with a 3 headed attack, pre-snap motion to confuse the secondary and open up the deep ball. The only member of the Tampa defense that scares me is Devin White.
For Tampa to win this game, the Packers have to play terrible, because they could play a perfect football game for them, and as long as the Packers play average, the Packers will still win the game.