McCarthy's peculiar game plans

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's not MM's kook aid, it's from the dawn of time the best advice you'll ever be given in life. You think Vince was about tricks or fundamentals? There are literally 10,000 different plays you could all on offense with the same personnel groupings, more if you want to switch it up. ALL of them will work at some times, most of them will work most times and there are a few that will work every time provided you just do them well. Like I said before I could beat 90% of the guys I had to wrestle all the way up till I quit in college with a variation of the single leg, variations of a half nelson and an escape. The 3 first moves I ever learned when I was 5. Everything is about fundamentals. Offense, defense, special teams. It's all fundamentals that's it. Don't fool yourself into thinking it's anything other than fundamentals. I get it, you don't like MM, lots of people don't. I'm not even defending HIM, but fundamentals is where it's at. No coach worth a **** thinks otherwise.

There have been times this year our offense has looked really good, and sputtered others. Trick plays aren't going to do it. Having your Rookie WR sit in the zone when he's open and not run into coverage for an incomplete pass and punt instead of a fresh set of downs is what is going to spark this offense rather than kill it. Taking Rodgers off the field to run a run with 3rd string QB isn't going to make this offense tick. Hill doesn't make that offense Tick, not even remotely so. If we can't get Aaron Freaking Rodgers and a WR to have enough confidence in each other to attack the middle of the field like this offense needs what's a trick play going to do when the defense can go right back to defending what they know the QB is going to do. and it's not all the "schemes" fault.

This offense has shot itself in the foot with redzone and 3rd down penalties all year, or bad holding calls, and earlier dropped passes etc. If you want to get on the coach about that, go ahead, i'd agree. I still don't buy "scheme" there are a lot of them and most of them will work. this one will work. Provided they actually run it.

I think you are kind of missing the point. Also, I have actually been a MM fan, but that has soured in the last year and I think the only way to fix this offense is to either relieve MM as head coach or at minimum, of his play calling duties and bring in an OC that can think outside the box. Which is really my whole point. MM seems stuck in his box and while executing fundamentals, as you point out is the key to success, it doesn't matter if you execute perfectly when the defense knows what is coming. A few of us have been mentioning players that seem to have added another layer to other offenses, layers that make it tougher for the defense to figure an offense out. This isn't Football like it was 30 years ago, where a coach or two is trying to look at as much film as possible, this is high tech football, where stat guys are figuring out trends, tendencies, statistical probabilities, etc. An OC has to keep on top of that as much as the DC. Figure out ways to carve up a defense other than "execute the fundamentals".

I think you brought it up in regards to Baseball. "The Shift" done by teams against opposing batters really took off in 2011. Why did it take off? Because people were analyzing readily available stats, studying computer models, etc. and giving themselves what is perceived a competitive advantage.

I'm not saying MM is stone age in his approach, but its no secret that his offensive play calling lacks creativity and this appears to have given defenses the advantage of being able to predict and attack it to the point where it is no longer producing like it once did.

 

[Mondio]

make it as high tech as you want, the team that blocks better, tackles better and doesn't turn the ball over, but takes it away will win the overwhelming majority of the time. When I see plays sitting out on the field repeatedly every single week because this offense failed to execute I have a hard time believing a different play call would have made the pass rise out of the dirt. Made the RB NOT false start twice on 3rd down. how does a different play call help a RB NOT fumble the football in a big moment? It would be different if I didn't see stupid penalties, missed receivers, missed catches etc all over the field in big moments. But I do, it's so hard to blame scheme. Especially when I doubt anyone in here could even begin to explain it other than what somebody on ESPN or something similar said.

 

[rodell330]

make it as high tech as you want, the team that blocks better, tackles better and doesn't turn the ball over, but takes it away will win the overwhelming majority of the time. When I see plays sitting out on the field repeatedly every single week because this offense failed to execute I have a hard time believing a different play call would have made the pass rise out of the dirt. Made the RB NOT false start twice on 3rd down. how does a different play call help a RB NOT fumble the football in a big moment? It would be different if I didn't see stupid penalties, missed receivers, missed catches etc all over the field in big moments. But I do, it's so hard to blame scheme. Especially when I doubt anyone in here could even begin to explain it other than what somebody on ESPN or something similar said.

I could easily explain what’s wrong with the scheme.

 

[Mavster]

make it as high tech as you want, the team that blocks better, tackles better and doesn't turn the ball over, but takes it away will win the overwhelming majority of the time.

Scheme impacts all of these things. See 2016 Rams versus the 2017 Rams. Did their players all magically get better in one off-season or what?

 

[Half Empty]

"all" their players weren't the same

Goff was a rookie in 2016

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I don't think if mattered. He's a gadget player, works hard and they found snaps for him. BFD. He hasn't done anything on that team that 1000 other players haven't done for every other team in the NFL including our own. He's not a better kick returner, he's not a better QB, he's not a better RB than anybody we have or the Saints have. He's a nice guy, hard worker, they like him. They found snaps for him after 2 years. Good for him. I can see us taking Jones out to run Hill for a 2 yard gain and punt. You'd be A OK with that right? LOL He'd be another reason for guys to ***** around here if that were the case.

Yes, I would be perfectly happy with an occasional negative "gadget" play as you put it if it helped improve the redzone efficiency of this team.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This offense has shot itself in the foot with redzone and 3rd down penalties all year, or bad holding calls, and earlier dropped passes etc. If you want to get on the coach about that, go ahead, i'd agree. I still don't buy "scheme" there are a lot of them and most of them will work. this one will work. Provided they actually run it.

I fully agree that any scheme can work, it's just that some schemes require overwhelming talent in more places. MM's schemes have historically required great talent at WR, QB, and OL. McVay's schemes this year have required great talent at OL; that's really about it. Some schemes allow a team to excel with lesser talent while other schemes rely on having great talent.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

"all" their players weren't the same

Goff was a rookie in 2016

That jump was not about the players, it was about the chasm in coaching ability between Fisher and McVay.

 

[Mondio]

I fully agree that any scheme can work, it's just that some schemes require overwhelming talent in more places. MM's schemes have historically required great talent at WR, QB, and OL. McVay's schemes this year have required great talent at OL; that's really about it. Some schemes allow a team to excel with lesser talent while other schemes rely on having great talent.

McVay's schemes have 3 top 20 1st round selections with 2 of them in the top 10. i'd say they have quite a bit more than great talent at OL going for them.

 

[Half Empty]

That jump was not about the players, it was about the chasm in coaching ability between Fisher and McVay.

Thanks. I thought we needed better players. Bring in the right coach, and we're good?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Thanks. I thought we needed better players. Bring in the right coach, and we're good?

Yup. Hard to argue that a top-3 QB, top-12 WR, top-15 RB, and a top-10 OL aren't good enough to field a top-5 offense.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

McVay's schemes have 3 top 20 1st round selections with 2 of them in the top 10. i'd say they have quite a bit more than great talent at OL going for them.

Where guys are picked in the draft is fun for the off season but doesn't mean much on the field. Just look at how many first round picks the Packers have recently spent on defense. Goff is a decent QB, maybe slightly above average. I didn't hear anyone clamoring for Robert Woods as an elite WR, Cooks can't find a team that actually wants him to stick around, and while I really like Gurley I, if you look at how well his line blocks for him, he gets a lot of yardage without being hit. Let's say we classify Gurley as great, that would be a great RB and great oline. The Packers actually have that too.

 

[Half Empty]

Yup. Hard to argue that a top-3 QB, top-12 WR, top-15 RB, and a top-10 OL aren't good enough to field a top-5 offense.

Actually, it's pretty easy, as many here have shown.

 

[Mondio]

Where guys are picked in the draft is fun for the off season but doesn't mean much on the field. Just look at how many first round picks the Packers have recently spent on defense. Goff is a decent QB, maybe slightly above average. I didn't hear anyone clamoring for Robert Woods as an elite WR, Cooks can't find a team that actually wants him to stick around, and while I really like Gurley I, if you look at how well his line blocks for him, he gets a lot of yardage without being hit. Let's say we classify Gurley as great, that would be a great RB and great oline. The Packers actually have that too.

I would take gurly 10 times out of 10 over both of our RB's. it's not even close. I saw him average 4.5 yds on like 18 carries with a long of 9. That's getting it done. That sets up everything. Jones is explosive, against passing defenses. Cooks is a good WR, and he fits that offense because Gurley makes it go. Goff sure threw some strikes against us for being slightly above average.

 

[Mavster]

"all" their players weren't the same

Goff was a rookie in 2016

Goff went from bad rookie QB to really good 2nd year quarterback. Thanks to coaching

 

[Half Empty]

Goff went from bad rookie QB to really good 2nd year quarterback. Thanks to coaching

I'm sure coaching had something to do with it. Enough to account for the quantum leap from year 1 to 2? Even then, maybe. However, was it

Scheme impacts all of these things. See 2016 Rams versus the 2017 Rams. Did their players all magically get better in one off-season or what?

 

[XPack]

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[Sunshinepacker]

I would take gurly 10 times out of 10 over both of our RB's. it's not even close. I saw him average 4.5 yds on like 18 carries with a long of 9. That's getting it done. That sets up everything. Jones is explosive, against passing defenses. Cooks is a good WR, and he fits that offense because Gurley makes it go. Goff sure threw some strikes against us for being slightly above average.

The reason I mentioned Gurley as only perhaps being a great RB is because when you actually look at some of the RB only stats, he's not nearly as high as most people would assume; a fact that is probably attributable to an amazing oline and great playcalling. The Athletic article (linked below) has some interesting information on Gurley (plus, thanks to a 3-day free-trial, there are also some PFF Elite stats here)

• Gurley runs against 6-man fronts more often than any other RB in the NFL
• Combine the above with the best run-blocking oline in the NFL and lots of RBs would be good there
• After some regression based on RBs with 50+touches and how many tackles they've broken, you can create a rough "expected broken tackles" metric; guys like Gordon, Hunt, and Barkley are breaking more tackles than expected, Gurley has actually broken 1 fewer tackle than an average RB given his number of touches (I hesitate to bring this up because it gives the "no-math" crowd and excuse to ignore everything but it IS interesting that he hasn't really broken as many tackles as you'd expect)
• Gurley ranks 21st in the NFL in yards after contact
• The article has some great video showing this, but play design has been a major factor in his success; while Gurley might be a good receiver, his stats this year aren't really based on that because almost 90% of his receptions have occured within 5 yards of the LoS

This whole post wasn't meant to say that Gurley is awful, he's obviously a very good RB; i just think he might not be the certified top-5 RB that most seem to believe he is. The only real advantage he has over Aaron Jones, and it's a big one, would seem to be that Gurley is about 15lbs heavier than Jones.

https://theathletic.com/658830/2018/11/20/inside-the-numbers-chris-carson-nfc-best-running-back/

 

[Poppa San]

Hope McCarthy took notes from the Chiefs/Rams game because that’s how you call plays for the offense. We have Aaron Rodgers and we can barely crack 24 pts

Actually, I wish he'd looked at the game tape from his first time in GB. Use MVS like this guy was.

 

[gonzozab]

What do you know? It's the two year anniversary of MM's "no reinventing the wheel" remarks. Look where we are now.

https://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin...won-t-make-changes-with-porous-defense-112116

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Actually, I wish he'd looked at the game tape from his first time in GB. Use MVS like this guy was.

Randy Moss was a special player coming out of college and the Vikings were smart enough to not shy away from the small school (Marshall) prospect with the 21st pick. Packers could have drafted him at 19th, but got Vonnie Holliday, not a bad player either.

Sure it would be GREAT if the Packers could use 5th rd pick MVS like Moss, but MVS has a long way to go before he is as good as Moss.

 

[Mike McCarthy]

What do you know? It's the two year anniversary of MM's "no reinventing the wheel" remarks. Look where we are now.

https://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin...won-t-make-changes-with-porous-defense-112116

Here we are as highly successful as ever.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The reason I mentioned Gurley as only perhaps being a great RB is because when you actually look at some of the RB only stats, he's not nearly as high as most people would assume; a fact that is probably attributable to an amazing oline and great playcalling. The Athletic article (linked below) has some interesting information on Gurley (plus, thanks to a 3-day free-trial, there are also some PFF Elite stats here)

• Gurley runs against 6-man fronts more often than any other RB in the NFL
• Combine the above with the best run-blocking oline in the NFL and lots of RBs would be good there
• After some regression based on RBs with 50+touches and how many tackles they've broken, you can create a rough "expected broken tackles" metric; guys like Gordon, Hunt, and Barkley are breaking more tackles than expected, Gurley has actually broken 1 fewer tackle than an average RB given his number of touches (I hesitate to bring this up because it gives the "no-math" crowd and excuse to ignore everything but it IS interesting that he hasn't really broken as many tackles as you'd expect)
• Gurley ranks 21st in the NFL in yards after contact
• The article has some great video showing this, but play design has been a major factor in his success; while Gurley might be a good receiver, his stats this year aren't really based on that because almost 90% of his receptions have occured within 5 yards of the LoS

This whole post wasn't meant to say that Gurley is awful, he's obviously a very good RB; i just think he might not be the certified top-5 RB that most seem to believe he is. The only real advantage he has over Aaron Jones, and it's a big one, would seem to be that Gurley is about 15lbs heavier than Jones.

https://theathletic.com/658830/2018/11/20/inside-the-numbers-chris-carson-nfc-best-running-back/

Breaking tackles and yards after contact are important stats for a certain kind of RB. Other kinds of running backs are successful in avoiding contact in the first place. One would think based on these stats Gurly's yards before contact must skew to the high end. Is that merely a function of the O-line opening holes where they are supposed to be or is it a function of Gurley finding them wherever they develop? I'd have to watch him a lot more than I have to say one way or the other.

"The only real advantage he has over Aaron Jones, and it's a big one, would seem to be that Gurley is about 15lbs heavier than Jones."

Gurley has another advantage: 4 seasons of high productivity on 250, 321 and 343 touches, while on pace for 368 this season. We have no idea what Jones would do with 23 touches on average, week in and week out.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What do you know? It's the two year anniversary of MM's "no reinventing the wheel" remarks. Look where we are now.

https://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin...won-t-make-changes-with-porous-defense-112116

I mostly agree with McCarthy's statement 10 weeks into the 2016 season and this statement was mainly addressing the defense:

"If we’ve got to reinvent the wheel in Week 11 or Week 12, we haven’t set our plan the right way for the season."

Basically, you are past the trade deadline, you just can't completely change your defense on the fly that far into a season. For the most part, with the hiring of Pettine, the defense is now getting a slow makeover.

No if you are saying he should have and hasn't "reinvented the wheel" when it comes to the offense, I agree in part. However, the hard part of that, with last years season, the offensive short comings were blamed on Rodgers being gone. This season started out with Rodgers being injured, so when should the offensive wheel have been reinvented? I think most of us have gotten to the point of knowing it needs to happen and realizing MM isn't the guy that should or could do it.

 

[rodell330]

We have seen some of the same struggles when it was Adams, Cobb and Alison lining up. Sure it helps the offense to have all experienced guys on the field for every play, but to expect it, isn't being realistic. I'm happier with the progress of MVS than I thought i would see out of any of the 3 rookies and was nervous about starting a season with such little experience at the WR position, but I think there is more than just inexperience at play here.

Thank you! People who don’t understand the game always blame rookie WRs. If you’ve watched the Packers long enough this has been a theme with whoever is out there at wr!! How the hell can it be on the rookie WRs when both guys have played a significant amount of meaningful snaps!!