Lazard Situation...

[Pkrjones]

Doesn't hurt... rendered Runyan pretty much useless on this Aaron Jones run.

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[Mondio]

What I think is suspect is LaFleur's entire concept of needing receivers that are great blockers. How has that really helped so far? Is our O line so inept that we can't run at all w/o receivers making great blocks? Let's focus on getting O linemen that block really well. I think there is too much emphasis given on Lazard's ability to block. He is a good receiver but really, we could have someone that gets a little more open.

I agree for the most part. I mean, I like Lazard, I like what he brings as a blocker and receiver. We could use a guy like that, but you can also replace the WR production in the offense without too much issue or money. His blocking is another matter. I like that he can help us in the run game etc and make some tough catches, that shouldn't be understated. I'm not in favor a real money in the 10M range. I wouldn't be opposed to a real money 3-6 range. But we need to focus on that Oline.

Why do people continually think our Oline is ok to good even 2 years ago when it requires so much of the WR's and TE's to help all the time? It's hindered this offense for a while now. Some because of injury, but even so, it still needs help.

 

[OldSchool101]

What I think is suspect is LaFleur's entire concept of needing receivers that are great blockers. How has that really helped so far? Is our O line so inept that we can't run at all w/o receivers making great blocks? Let's focus on getting O linemen that block really well. I think there is too much emphasis given on Lazard's ability to block. He is a good receiver but really, we could have someone that gets a little more open.

I agree. To maybe answer that a little it should conceivably open up some run lanes better. Although we ignored the run last year so just scratch that!

 

[gopkrs]

I like that he can help us in the run game etc and make some tough catches, that shouldn't be understated. I'm not in favor a real money in the 10M range.

Yes, I agree he makes some tough catches. I just think he is not so quick or fast. Someone else can get the separation so as not to have to throw into coverage so often. I know we like to put a dollar number on how much someone is worth. But really, more important is how to improve the team. If we can improve the team with someone else; why would 6 or 8 million dollars be good for us? Obviously I'm not attached at the hip with Lazard. I like him but we need more than blocking there imho.

 

[Magooch]

What I think is suspect is LaFleur's entire concept of needing receivers that are great blockers. How has that really helped so far? Is our O line so inept that we can't run at all w/o receivers making great blocks? Let's focus on getting O linemen that block really well. I think there is too much emphasis given on Lazard's ability to block. He is a good receiver but really, we could have someone that gets a little more open.

100% agree.

I'm sure LaFleur certainly appreciates a WR who can block well and if he had his druthers he'd have a whole stable of great WRs who are also great blockers.

But at the same time I am also quite certain that if you gave LaFleur the choice between:

1. A WR who is an elite playmaker (be that by route-running, speed, physicality, catching ability, etc) but an average blocker or
2. A WR who is an average playmaker but an elite blocker

I am confident he (and every other coach in the league) would pick #1 over #2 every single time without hesitation.

I don't know, maybe I've read LaFleur wrong but I get the sense that a WR's blocking ability is for him a nice cherry on top but it's not a first-order essential quality. If you've got two identical wide receivers and one is a better blocker then of course you'd prefer that guy, but a WR's blocking ability shouldn't outweigh his pass-catching or playmaking skills in any way. Don't mean to sound silly but it is called wide *receiver* after all, not wide blocker, lol

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, I agree he makes some tough catches. I just think he is not so quick or fast. Someone else can get the separation so as not to have to throw into coverage so often. I know we like to put a dollar number on how much someone is worth. But really, more important is how to improve the team. If we can improve the team with someone else; why would 6 or 8 million dollars be good for us? Obviously I'm not attached at the hip with Lazard. I like him but we need more than blocking there imho.

Until the Packers improve their WR room, Lazard probably has more value to the Packers than any other team. Now if it was a strong class of FA and draftable WR's, I think Lazard doesn't get near what he wants. This was a good year for Lazard to hit the market, not nearly the options that we are used to seeing for teams to improve their WR situation.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't know, maybe I've read LaFleur wrong but I get the sense that a WR's blocking ability is for him a nice cherry on top but it's not a first-order essential quality.

Actually, I was saying that I think having a blocking W/O clouds his vision when looking at potential receivers and also (maybe more important), giving playing time. Too much emphasis on the blocking imho.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The other thing to keep in mind, if the Packers don't resign Lazard and a few other current Packer FA's, they end up getting some + points towards possibly getting comp picks in 2024.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But he should according to everything that drives contracts and based on every player comp anyone could find.

Folks just cannot accept the new level of contracts we are seeing for WRs

I don't agree that Lazard is a top 40 veteran wide receiver, therefore in my opinion he shouldn't be paid $10 million a season.

I'm aware you consider him to be a better player than most others around here though.

I agree. To maybe answer that a little it should conceivably open up some run lanes better. Although we ignored the run last year so just scratch that!

The Packers finished with the 15th highest run percentage last season. While there were some games they abandoned the run it wasn't an issue for most of the season.

 

[tynimiller]

Eh I’d argue many of us agree on what he is - some just refuse to accept what that means in todays salaries though.

 

[longtimefan]

What I think is suspect is LaFleur's entire concept of needing receivers that are great blockers. How has that really helped so far? Is our O line so inept that we can't run at all w/o receivers making great blocks? Let's focus on getting O linemen that block really well. I think there is too much emphasis given on Lazard's ability to block. He is a good receiver but really, we could have someone that gets a little more open.

Its not that the Oline is bad..its certain run schemes that wr needs to block

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers finished with the 15th highest run percentage last season. While there were some games they abandoned the run it wasn't an issue for most of the season.

That was after slightly overcompensating as the season progressed. Much due to people like myself asking WTH was going on and it eventually got to the top.

Going into 2022, The Packers had arguably one of the top 5 best RB tandems in the NFL. Everyone’s Brother and Sister knew that the Packers were thin at WR from a continuity standpoint, including yourself. When a team has a “known” learning curve at a particular position (such as we did at WR in 2022) it’s just common sense to increase reliance on other phases through increased usage. Then slowly and methodically reverting back to normal.



It doesn’t take a NASA scientist to assert that GB underutilized the RB group both overall AND especially in the first half of the season. Even Matt said so himself.

25th should’ve been 5th in the first half of the season. 15th was a good try at recouping our rushing attempts back to somewhere respectable and guess what happened when we did what you claimed to be was unnecessary if you recall? We started winning

Too little, Too late. Lack of early season RB usage was a top 5 reason for our miserable 18 points per game early in our season. I said it didn’t work then and I’ll say it again now.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Eh I’d argue many of us agree on what he is - some just refuse to accept what that means in todays salaries though.

Once again, there are less than 40 wide receivers in the league earning $10 million a season. I definitely don't agree Lazard is anywhere near being a top 40 WR in the league.

That was after slightly overcompensating as the season progressed. Much due to people like myself asking WTH was going on and it eventually got to the top.

Going into 2022, The Packers had arguably one of the top 5 best RB tandems in the NFL. Everyone’s Brother and Sister knew that the Packers were thin at WR from a continuity standpoint, including yourself. When a team has a “known” learning curve at a particular position (such as we did at WR in 2022) it’s just common sense to increase reliance on other phases through increased usage. Then slowly and methodically reverting back to normal.

It doesn’t take a NASA scientist to assert that GB underutilized the RB group both overall AND especially in the first half of the season. Even Matt said so himself.

25th should’ve been 5th in the first half of the season. 15th was a good try at recouping our rushing attempts back to somewhere respectable and guess what happened when we did what you claimed to be was unnecessary if you recall? We started winning

Too little, Too late. Lack of early season RB usage was a top 5 reason for our miserable 18 points per game early in our season. I said it didn’t work then and I’ll say it again now.

There were several games in which the Packers struggled mightily to run the ball as well. It doesn't make any sense to continue trying something that doesn't work. While I agree there were some other contests in which they didn't rely on their rushing attack enough overall it's not true they abandoned the run last season.

 

[gopkrs]

There were several games in which the Packers struggled mightily to run the ball as well. It doesn't make any sense to continue trying something that doesn't work. While I agree there were some other contests in which they didn't rely on their rushing attack enough overall it's not true they abandoned the run last season.

Agree

 

[tynimiller]

Once again, there are less than 40 wide receivers in the league earning $10 million a season. I definitely don't agree Lazard is anywhere near being a top 40 WR in the league.

But 2022...Lazard was tied for 31st most targets, tied for 41st for receptions, 36th in yards, tied for 19th in touchdowns.

He got the 43rd highest receiving grade from PFF

Of only 84 WRs with 50 targets or more he had the 34th highest Receiving Grade at 73.9 ( above him were a decent number of rookie contract guys)
Of only 60 WRs with 70 or more targets he had the 30th highest receiving grade.

12 of the WRs above him are on rookie contracts.

So I only mildly disagree but concede argument exists to say he isn't a top 40 WR because he is right around the cusp...he is for sure a top 40 WR to be paid for sure.

Which for the record the 40th priced contract currently is at a AAV rate is Berrios at $6M/yr

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Lazard has a few things going in his favor this offseason. First, he is coming off of a season, that due to a weak WR room, his stats are probably higher than what they would be on a team with better receivers. Even when the Packers had Davante, Lazard was getting reps for the same reason, lack of talent behind him. Throw in a weak WR Free Agent group and some team is going to overpay him. I agree that Lazard is valuable as a run blocker, but I wouldn't pay him much for his receiving attributes.

 

[Magooch]

Lazard has a few things going in his favor this offseason. First, he is coming off of a season, that due to a weak WR room, his stats are probably higher than what they would be on a team with better receivers. Even when the Packers had Davante, Lazard was getting reps for the same reason, lack of talent behind him. Throw in a weak WR Free Agent group and some team is going to overpay him. I agree that Lazard is valuable as a run blocker, but I wouldn't pay him much for his receiving attributes.

That will be the big question: Is someone going to pay him based on his 2022, or based on that AND prior seasons?

You can make a "top 40" argument based on his 2022 numbers. I'm sure that's what his agent will be pushing heavily if he's worth his salt.

But at the same time Lazard literally doubled his targets last season (100) compared to his previous career average (~53) and was ostensibly his team's #1 option (and I would argue that was not necessarily by "merit" but more or less by default) which had never been the case either. So I'm sure Lazard's camp will sell up his 2022 but at the same time I suspect any interested party will likely be more amenable to paying him based on factoring in his 2021, 2020, 2019 as well. So while he is a fringe top-40 guy last season that most certainly was NOT the case the prior years and if I had to guess for most teams 2019-2021 is probably more closely in line with the usage/production you'd expect to get out of him rather than 2022. I don't think there are many teams who would seriously be considering him as their #1 option like he was in GB last year and so it would follow that we would expect his production (and pay) to be more in-line with those previous years.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's more insight....out of the seventeen games between our three main WRs (Lazard, Watson, Doubs) each of them led (not tied) but led the team in targets amongst WRs:

Lazard - 5 times
Watson - 4 times
Doubs - 3 times

There were tied for leads multiple times but Lazard was involved in four additional games where he was tied for targets.

Either way Lazard again is not a team's WR1 - nor will he get paid as one. His ceiling he's proven is WR2, but arguably his floor is WR2b production wise an argument could be had as well. Being one year advanced from MVS ($8.5M guaranteed) type deal but also these:

Nelson Agholor got 2 year $22M for 2021 and 2022 and proceeded to not even put up 800 yards in those years. $16M guaranteed
Zay Jones just over 800 yards this past year and 5 TDs is getting $8M/yr (Lazard 788 yards and 6 TDs) $14M guaranteed
Tim Patrick signed a 3 year $34M deal with Broncos 2021 - 2023 $11.5M guaranteed
Tyler Boyd is getting $10.75M a year and stat wise has put up similar numbers to Lazard. $11M guaranteed

Truthfully Lazard according to NFL contracts and what he is has an arguable range of $9M-$12M/year with about $10M-$15M guaranteed with strong support.

Honestly, if your GB and Lazard is willing to stay with a contract that is roughly $8M/year hit you might want to consider it strongly...but it sure seems he's gonna get around or above $10M/yr whether we agree or not.

 

[longtimefan]

Lazard to jets???

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Lazard to jets???

If they have room after signing Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

 

[tynimiller]

Lazard to jets???

We all know Rodgers has named specific players that are part of the discussions of the future. He has mentioned on multiple occasions to this effect; Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

Honestly, once he is traded to the Jets (think it is a matter of when and for what not IF) I think we will see at minimum 2 of the following 5 players also be there: Bakhtiari, Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We all know Rodgers has named specific players that are part of the discussions of the future. He has mentioned on multiple occasions to this effect; Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

Honestly, once he is traded to the Jets (think it is a matter of when and for what not IF) I think we will see at minimum 2 of the following 5 players also be there: Bakhtiari, Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

He may even see if they will get Jake Kumerow from the Bills.

 

[OldSchool101]

So I only mildly disagree but concede argument exists to say he isn't a top 40 WR because he is right around the cusp...he is for sure a top 40 WR to be paid for sure.

Which for the record the 40th priced contract currently is at a AAV rate is Berrios at $6M/yr

Interesting thanks.

In my evaluation of player value I look at many factors. One key one for myself is this. What was the dynamic surrounding the WR? Meaning, Did the players around them aid in their production or hinder it against a relative mean across the league.

Imo. Lazard’s production was very likely enhanced by the loss of Davante and fact that he has #12 as his QB more than it was hindered by him playing against a superior opposing CB. There are more teams than not which would put him in a more inferior environment compared to 2022 GB. Not to mention he could easily take a slight step backwards learning a new playbook, if he goes elsewhere.

I think $6Mil is reasonable. He’ll possibly get overpaid ($9mil+)
but I hope it’s not by GB. I think a draft pick inside our first 4 natural selections would put up close to his numbers inside 2 seasons. Call it 600-700 yards 4-6 TD’s neighborhood. There’s also a very distinct possibility that GB picks up 1 or 2 more draft picks in that draft board area I mentioned. If that happens? He’s as good as gone imo

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But 2022...Lazard was tied for 31st most targets, tied for 41st for receptions, 36th in yards, tied for 19th in touchdowns.

He got the 43rd highest receiving grade from PFF

Of only 84 WRs with 50 targets or more he had the 34th highest Receiving Grade at 73.9 ( above him were a decent number of rookie contract guys)
Of only 60 WRs with 70 or more targets he had the 30th highest receiving grade.

12 of the WRs above him are on rookie contracts.

So I only mildly disagree but concede argument exists to say he isn't a top 40 WR because he is right around the cusp...he is for sure a top 40 WR to be paid for sure.

Which for the record the 40th priced contract currently is at a AAV rate is Berrios at $6M/yr

Actually taking a look at the numbers you provided I might have to change my mind that Lazard deserves to be paid like a top 40 wide receiver. I'm not sure the Packers have enough cap space to afford paying him that kind of money though.

 

[longtimefan]

We all know Rodgers has named specific players that are part of the discussions of the future. He has mentioned on multiple occasions to this effect; Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby.

Honestly, once he is traded to the Jets (think it is a matter of when and for what not IF) I think we will see at minimum 2 of the following 5 players also be there: Bakhtiari, Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan and Crosby

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