Going For 2

[irishfan]

One thing I haven't really seen mentioned is the mental state of the Cardinals. This game was over, they had won and now suddenly they are facing a two point conversion which if good will mean they get no chance to come back. This has to factor in the decision making. Even the best professional sportspeople are affected by this. The Cardinals must have been mentally frazzled after those 2 huge throws. No way they defend a 2pt conversion as well as normal. Packers taking the point and extra time gave the Cards time to regroup and steady themselves. Would have been a huge call by McCarthy but the best teams when they smell blood just keep going for it.

 

[adambr2]

One thing I haven't really seen mentioned is the mental state of the Cardinals. This game was over, they had won and now suddenly they are facing a two point conversion which if good will mean they get no chance to come back. This has to factor in the decision making. Even the best professional sportspeople are affected by this. The Cardinals must have been mentally frazzled after those 2 huge throws. No way they defend a 2pt conversion as well as normal. Packers taking the point and extra time gave the Cards time to regroup and steady themselves. Would have been a huge call by McCarthy but the best teams when they smell blood just keep going for it.

Another factor is that the Cardinals had no timeouts left, so if they were expecting the 1 and we were prepared with a good 2 play after the review it's possible they would have been caught completely off guard with no way to stop and regroup.

 

[CashInFist]

No excuse to not go for 2 there in that situation, imo.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Cardinals had almost 5 minutes between the TD and the conversion. Bruce Arians is a very smart coach, I highly doubt we would have caught them off guard or on their heels. Going for 2 in that situation would have been met by a very good defense just as hungry for a win as the Packers. Had Cobb been in the game, I see a stronger argument for going for 2. But I have to guess, that Janis wasn't someone who normally would have participated in a planned 2 point play. I still think MM made the right call, despite the outcome, but I would have been fine either way.

 

[TJV]

I wonder if there are any statistics regarding probabilities that could help a coach decide whether or not to go for 2?

 

[scotscheese]

I wonder if there are any statistics regarding probabilities that could help a coach decide whether or not to go for 2?

having balls or not??

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I wonder if there are any statistics regarding probabilities that could help a coach decide whether or not to go for 2?

Some would have you think that a certain score on The Wonderlic test should be required of all coaches.

 

[CashInFist]

Only kicking the extra point puts the fate of the game on a coin toss rather than your QB's hands. Then the coin didn't flip. I mean seriously, I've never seen that happen before. Aaron Rodgers never touched the ball again after the most amazing throw ever. That's what really happened. Las Vegas determines the outcome of the real games as often as possible, in every way imaginable, imo.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Aaron Rodgers never touched the ball again after the most amazing throw ever. That's what really happened. Las Vegas determines the outcome of the real games as often as possible, in every way imaginable, imo.

There would have been a 100% probability that Aaron Rodgers would have never touched the ball again, had the Packers gone for 2 and not made it.

 

[CashInFist]

There would have been a 100% probability that Aaron Rodgers would have never touched the ball again, had the Packers gone for 2 and not made it.

How bad do you want to win?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

How bad do you want to win?

Bad enough to hope things played out differently then they did. I would have supported either decision. Critics of MM would have been even harsher had he gone for 2 and lost.

 

[TJV]

Las Vegas determines the outcome of the real games as often as possible, in every way imaginable, imo.

What do you mean by this?

 

[Pkrjones]

Aaron Rodgers never touched the ball again after the most amazing throw ever.

There would have been a 100% probability that Aaron Rodgers would have never touched the ball again, had the Packers gone for 2 and not made it.

Actually there was 100% probability that he DOES touch the ball (the 2 point conversion) after that amazing throw. I'm pretty sure no minds are being changed throughout this thread, but I've already stated that I'd rather have the game in AR's hands rather than even a chance of him not touching the ball again. My $.02.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Actually there was 100% probability that he DOES touch the ball (the 2 point conversion) after that amazing throw. I'm pretty sure no minds are being changed throughout this thread, but I've already stated that I'd rather have the game in AR's hands rather than even a chance of him not touching the ball again. My $.02.

LOL Jones.....have to read my whole sentence.....There would have been a 100% probability that Aaron Rodgers would have never touched the ball again, had the Packers gone for 2 and not made it.

Also, you can't guarantee 100% Rodgers touches the ball in a 2 point conversion either, since we could have seen BJ in the Wildcat formation and Rodgers flanked outside, who would have ever thought BJ could throw a ball?

 

[Larry 3]

I wonder if there are any statistics regarding probabilities that could help a coach decide whether or not to go for 2?

Yes, and it is simple statistics =). What probability is higher? The chances of scoring on the two-point conversion OR converting the pat AND winning in overtime as the away team?

scenario 1: 2015 two-point conversion stat for NFL - 45 / 94 = 47.87%

scenario 2: 2015 pat - 1,131 / 1,199 = 94.3% , and away team wins in overtime since 2001 is 110 / 242 = 45.45%
thus, converting pat AND winning as the away team in overtime = 94.3% * 45.45% = 42.86%

scenario 1 > scenario 2; thus, go for two always. It is like never hitting on a 17, and always splitting your 8's in blackjack. McCarthy should have known to go for two.

The numbers above are probably plus or minus two percentage points but the general idea is the same: you go for two.

 

[TJV]

Yes, and it is simple statistics =).

It was a joke. See the several hundred previous pages of this thread.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, and it is simple statistics =). What probability is higher? The chances of scoring on the two-point conversion OR converting the pat AND winning in overtime as the away team?

scenario 1: 2015 two-point conversion stat for NFL - 45 / 94 = 47.87%

scenario 2: 2015 pat - 1,131 / 1,199 = 94.3% , and away team wins in overtime since 2001 is 110 / 242 = 45.45%
thus, converting pat AND winning as the away team in overtime = 94.3% * 45.45% = 42.86%

scenario 1 > scenario 2; thus, go for two always. It is like never hitting on a 17, and always splitting your 8's in blackjack. McCarthy should have known to go for two.

The numbers above are probably plus or minus two percentage points but the general idea is the same: you go for two.

Although your numbers sound like a convincing point (if that is all you will be basing your decisions on), your numbers really aren't correct. First of all Mason Crosby was 100% converting PAT's in 2015.

Not sure where you got this stat away team wins in overtime since 2001 is 110 / 242 = 45.45%

I found this: The home team has a slight advantage in overtime with a 250-224-17 (.526 W Pct)


So even with my numbers the Packers are statistically only going to win 47.4% of the time doing what they did, compared to your number of 47.87% of 2 points being successful and the Packers winning that way. However, as myself and many have pointed out, statistics don't really give you the full picture. One, what situation were the 2 points converted this year successfully? Was the game on the line? Or during garbage time? Possibly when a team was down by 2+ scores in the last part of the 4th quarter and the defense played softer? What teams gave up 2 point conversions? What team made them? Were all players healthy?

Bottom line, when the "statistics and probabilities" of things like this are so close, its a coaches decision as to what he feels will be more successful for his team in that particular moment. So for people to spend all this time running stats and probabilities and then saying "Ah ha, MM was a fool...he didn't know or use probability in his decision and he cost us a game!" No, actually he did know probabilities at the time of his decision and he thought his team had a more probable chance of winning in overtime. No matter what you or anyone shows me with statistics and probabilities, I'm going to tell you that those numbers aren't playing in that game at that particular moment.

 

[Daryl Muellenberg]

Yes, and it is simple statistics =). What probability is higher? The chances of scoring on the two-point conversion OR converting the pat AND winning in overtime as the away team?

The numbers above are probably plus or minus two percentage points but the general idea is the same: you go for two.

So this year the team that won the coin toss for OT and decided to kick off won 66% of the time. That's a huge statistical advantage. Does that mean every team should kick off if they win the coin toss? You can't just base a decision on statistics alone.

 

[Larry 3]

Although your numbers sound like a convincing point (if that is all you will be basing your decisions on), your numbers really aren't correct. First of all Mason Crosby was 100% converting PAT's in 2015.

Not sure where you got this stat away team wins in overtime since 2001 is 110 / 242 = 45.45%

I found this: The home team has a slight advantage in overtime with a 250-224-17 (.526 W Pct)

NFL.com --> standings --> regular seasons 2001 through 2015 overtime

I added them up manually -_- (nerd here)

Road team : (year: win-loss-tie)
(2001: 7-10-0), (2002: 12-12-1), (2003: 13-10-0) ... (2015: 8-13-0) --> (2001-2015: 110-130-5). I used ties as .5 games played and threw out the last tie on the total played since the NFL does not play .5 games to get a total of 110 / 242.

 

[Larry 3]

So this year the team that won the coin toss for OT and decided to kick off won 66% of the time. That's a huge statistical advantage. Does that mean every team should kick off if they win the coin toss? You can't just base a decision on statistics alone.

I would want to see the spread of that statistic over the course of the past fifteen years or 100 plus tries before I would want to base my decision on that scenario. Dur, what I am trying to say is a stat has to be statistically significant before you can take it seriously.

 

[Daryl Muellenberg]

I would want to see the spread of that statistic over the course of the past fifteen years or 100 plus tries before I would want to base my decision on that scenario.

Overtime rules have changed recently, so you don't have 100 plus tries or 15 years of stats with the new rules. Even if you did, I still say you can't just base a decision like that on stats alone, you have to take all variables into consideration, with the biggest variables coming from the game being played (not previous games played by other teams under different conditions).

 

[CashInFist]

Actually there was 100% probability that he DOES touch the ball (the 2 point conversion) after that amazing throw. I'm pretty sure no minds are being changed throughout this thread, but I've already stated that I'd rather have the game in AR's hands rather than even a chance of him not touching the ball again. My $.02.

I mean it is that simple. LOL

 

[CashInFist]

What do you mean by this?

I think it is a rigged game by Las Vegas, and when they want to win they almost always do, jmo. Been studying in my mind for decades.

 

[Sky King]

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[CashInFist]

Bad enough to hope things played out differently then they did. I would have supported either decision. Critics of MM would have been even harsher had he gone for 2 and lost.

I wanted the Packers so win the SB so freakin much, that I just decided to go it with all the time now. Dolphins are FIRED. LOL