The NFL is the only major sports league to divide its existence the way it does. It's only because the Super Bowl has been such a successful phenomenon. In 1960, the NBA only had eight teams, and no one is wanting to take all those championship banners down from the Boston rafters. What if in 50 years there are 80 NFL teams? So what? I don't see how that diminishes Philadelphia's accomplishment this year. You can only beat your competition.
Go Eagles
- Thread starter PackerDNA
- Start date
Yeah, Packer fans might get upset if they didn't draft their usual annual first round bust.
Well, bust is too strong a word (in some cases), but you get the point.
Sanguine camper
Cheesehead
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2014
- Messages
- 2,350
- Reaction score
- 896
I totally agree. All I'm trying g to point out is that it's much harder to win a championship when you start out one of 32 compared to one of 16. All the old championship teams deserve their glory in my opinion. They were still the best.
In a sense you still have two league. You only play teams from the other conference once every 4 years. Back in Lombardi's Packers days you had to play power houses like the colts and Rams every year and some of them twice a year. That and only two teams making the title game compared to seven teams in each conference now. A lot of it especially in the first round being just padding the leagues pockets.
One more thing about the game: How about that field goal kicker, Jake Elliot? That guy was dialed in and kicking the ball a mile. And most of them were dead center of the goalposts too. After all the kicking problems the Packers have had in the last few years, I couldn't help but be a little envious. And circumstances kept making him kick every ball twice, but he just kept making all of them.
tynimiller
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 2, 2012
- Messages
- 15,503
- Reaction score
- 5,925
I think far too many of you have massively disproportionate expectations of first round draft picks. Perhaps I am too conservative, I am not too prideful to concede but I’ve studied the draft and prospects and reflected and reviewed back on past drafts so much I think many would be amazed to learn how tough it really is to get it perfect and always get a two or three contract starter with your first round pick.
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2013
- Messages
- 2,610
- Reaction score
- 1,036
I feel content that The Pack gave the Eagles the best challenge. Had the offense been slighty more on point could have pulled off the upset.
None the less still several pieces away from completing.
None the less still several pieces away from completing.
Helps being in a dome, I'm sure. Nevertheless, I admired his performance.
gopkrs
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 12, 2014
- Messages
- 5,958
- Reaction score
- 1,592
It just seems like they weight potential too much. They should be able to pick guys that can play.
BrokenArrow
Cheesehead
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2017
- Messages
- 3,036
- Reaction score
- 1,468
Super Bowl XLIV
BrokenArrow
Cheesehead
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2017
- Messages
- 3,036
- Reaction score
- 1,468
Every single game guys get away with far more than that. Williams two-hand shoving Nixon to secure the Lions win is a prime example.
gopkrs
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 12, 2014
- Messages
- 5,958
- Reaction score
- 1,592
Only giving my opinion. I couldn't see how Brady got so worked up about it. I mean, I'll say it again, he extended his arm and pushed the defender in the face mask. And if you are wondering. I was for the crows.
Eh, it was kind of a joke, we're just having fun here. But like most jokes, it holds a grain of truth. Yes, it is very hard to make good draft picks and assemble a Super Bowl winning team. But that being the case doesn't bring you any championships. We need to perform at a higher level than other teams if we're going to get anywhere. We've been in the top half of the league for a good while now. But it's been 14 years since the last Lombardi.
tynimiller
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 2, 2012
- Messages
- 15,503
- Reaction score
- 5,925
Oh for sure, this isn't directed at you personally but I think I'm just growing extremely thin of every year Packer fans having the inability to discuss things with nuance or at minimum step back and observe things on the whole for what they are.
For example I've been harping on the last four years worth of what Howie did as GM with the Eagles is unprecedented - the amount of hits he's had in every decision is not normal....but the crazy thing is prior to that he had a couple of the biggest first round bombs someone can have...
2019 he drafted Andre Dillard in the first round....dude didn't even stick around his entire rookie contract, couldn't start unless injuries happened and was a 7 game inactive this season for us in only his fifth season...Gute hasn't had a burn out like that ever. The year after that he drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round....and again he was out of Philly after just two seasons because he was so bad...now he's been on three teams in the last three years and this last year was only active in 8 games.
It ain't easy...in the 2019 draft there is already two guys not even actively trying to make it in the league from the first round...couple others that aren't even active on most game days for their teams anymore...
2020 draft first round has four guys not even playing sunday football anymore...
2021 first round even has a few guys that are barely clinging to roster spots...and not because of injuries like Stokes...just play not there....two top three picks even...
This stuff hard to predict and most fans just trust hindsight and can pretend they knew for certain and scream "How could Gute not have known..."
Good point. Does Campbell call the offensive plays, or does he defer those to the OC?
My guess is that he doesn't call the plays, and that allows him to better manage the game and the clock.
Anyway, he lost two very good coordinators on both sides of the ball. That will be nearly impossible to replicate. And good coaches and coordinators are very important for the smooth training and execution of a game plan. Sounds obvious, but MLF calls the plays and I've never cared for that.
Correct. It's so easy in hindsight to ask, as just one example, "How could Gluten pass up TJ Watt for Kevin King?"
The question itself isn't unfair, it's irrelevant. A GM makes the best decision he can with the massive research and limited choices he has. And despite opinions to the contrary, a GM will most likely draft for need rather than the elusive "BPA".
Draftees have to be measured on objective and subjective assessments. Subjective assessments are influenced by perception, opinion, and personal preference. There will be hits, there will be misses. Your history of Roseman's picks is a good example of all that can go wrong, despite solid research and intuition.
And then he has a year like this past season - pulling DeJean out or round two and adding Barkley in FA and adding Zach Baun. DeJean is a legit candidate for DROTY, Baun for DPOTY, and imo MVP for Barkley. Sometimes it rains, sometimes it puts.
I was disappointed with the pick of Morgan by Gluten in round 1. I was certainly happy with Cooper and Williams, and to some extent, Bullard - and then the FA acquisitions of McKinney and Jacobs. Hard to imagine a better offseason, and Morgan is likely going to be a starter.
Sanguine camper
Cheesehead
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2014
- Messages
- 2,350
- Reaction score
- 896
To be fair, I think a lot of fans are criticizing Gute's decision-making process in round one. He reaches for potential and the majority of picks barely contribute their first two years. That gets especially noticeable in the playoffs when the first rounder is mainly sitting on the bench or not making an impact. Contrast that with Gute's approach later in the draft and it's striking. Nobody is better at finding the best players who drop into the lower rounds. Now he has had his share of third round busts but overall, his record after the first round is excellent. Problem is: the first round matters a great deal. It's still the best opportunity to land that difference making player even though there's no guarentee. Other than Alexander, he has yet to draft a pro bowl player in round one.
tynimiller
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 2, 2012
- Messages
- 15,503
- Reaction score
- 5,925
I didn't have them memorized by memory so had to look back. I cannot stress this isn't presented in a way to be construed as disagreeing or agreeing. I think many (not you) say things in passing but not actually know if true.
2018 - Jaire - He played out the gates and has been when in one of the tops CB in the league not just team.
2019 - Rashan - Rashan absolutely would have played more that first year (played 24% of the snaps) however both Smiths brought in and Fackrell just had double digit sacks. He's been a starter for us essentially ever since.
2019 - Darnell Savage started day 1 and has ever since even now with new team
2020 - Jordan Love - we all know why he didn't play right away.
2021 - Eric Stokes - Started right out the gate and did in year two till his injury.
2022 - Quay Walker - started out the gate and has ever since.
2022 - Devonte Wyatt - played 224 snaps year 1, very similar to Jordan Davis (PHI stud) who played 224 the same year.
2023 - Lukas Van Ness - played 365 (33% snaps) year 1
2024 - Jordan Morgan - Played in 6 games, 1 start and 186 snaps...until lingering shoulder issue shut him down he was splitting reps with Rhyan.
Of course barely contribute is subjective but I'd say no one fits that billing except maybe Morgan, whose was trending to not be the case given his snaps up till being shut down. Someone might argue Rashan, Wyatt or LVN...however trends of DL and Edges drafted typically don't come in year one and see over 50% of snaps (for sure happens, just not much with rookies).
As for playoff games each had in their rookie year:
2018 - We did not play in the playoffs.
2019 - Gary played 12 snaps in the playoff games with 2 tackles
2019 - Savage played all but one defensive snap, had 13 tackles, 1 TFL (which was a pass play he BLEW UP)
2020 - Love did not play in the playoffs.
2021 - Stokes played every defensive snap, had 3 tackles and allowed 2 targets of 4 to be completed.
2022 - We did not play in a playoff game
2023 - Lukas Van Ness saw two playoff games his rookie year and played 53% and 44% of the snaps in those. He delivered 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB Hit
2024 - Morgan was injured, depending on your opinion very hard to hold it against him. When Jenkins went down how many were like me though and IMMEDIATELY thought of Morgan and how valuable his presence would have been.
So only one first round player was active and didn't play in a possible playoff game and that was Love. The others that did not play in a playoff game their rookie year were either due to Packers not making the playoffs (Jaire, Quay, Wyatt) or injury (Morgan).
Gary is the only one arguably that was a playoff "waste of a pick" in their rookie year. LVN for as fair his criticism is has played well in big games in his otherwise struggling short career.
In my opinion Gute is VERY good at finding for sure contributors...the issue is he struggles locating gamechangers (I'd argue up until this last year possibly since Jaire).
This is kind of the crux of it for me. I mean, what is the expectation of a first-round pick? Should we be satisfied with drafting guys who are able to just be "contributors," or is it unreasonable to expect more "game-changers" out of that kind of investment?
I don't remember who it was, but some pundit said it recently....basically that we have repeatedly invested heavily in drafting defense early but for all of that we don't really have anyone we've drafted who other teams have to game-plan for on defense. Alexander when he played, and maybe Cooper is getting there, but otherwise there's not a lot of defenders we've drafted recently who other teams have to go out of their way to account for. Gary, Stokes, Savage, Van Ness etc can all be "contributors" but they're not players that opposing OCs are losing sleep over figuring out how to handle...
So, I dunno. Is that unfair for that to be the expectation? Maybe so but IMO it's better to aim for a higher standard than "started games for us as a rookie" or at least have that as the bare minimum expectation. If we are just looking to draft guys who can be solid contributors and/or starters then perhaps we should just go ahead and trade down out of the first every year, as Gute's shown he can draft starters and contributors outside of round 1 just fine...
tynimiller
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 2, 2012
- Messages
- 15,503
- Reaction score
- 5,925
It changes year to year depending on the depth of the prospects but typically if you're outside the top 10, your assurance of what the prospect is is GROSSLY unknown.
Just my personal opinion bare minimum is a first rounder should provide depending on their position significant snaps. Now the handful of people I know that have in some fashion been in the scouting departments of various teams - some expect more some expect less, but I've NEVER heard anyone expect as much as many fans expect out of Day1 guys.
I cluster expectations if I'm outside the ELITE tier of special prospects (usually in that 8-15 picks range):
*OL - I expect to be the first man up or actually play significant snaps their rookie year and be a starter second year unless the room is just chalked full of studs.
*DL, Edges - I expect minimum 25-35% of defensive snaps given the position rookie year.
*WRs - I expect 40% or so of usage snaps minimum.
LB, RB, TE, S, CB - given positional value these are the three positions that I hold the same level of expectations as I do towards the elite prospects, they must be Day1 starters for their teams.
QBs - Again if outside those elite prospects, I am in the not needed to start right away camp. The positional value of this position pushes people up, not down.
*These positions I expect starting level contributions by the end of their second year minimum.
As an example Darnell Savage was everything I hoped and expected he would be...I wish he'd been better, but dude came in Day1 and started...never lost his starting role and even is still starting in the league.
tynimiller
Cheesehead
- Joined
- May 2, 2012
- Messages
- 15,503
- Reaction score
- 5,925
This is kind of the crux of it for me. I mean, what is the expectation of a first-round pick? Should we be satisfied with drafting guys who are able to just be "contributors," or is it unreasonable to expect more "game-changers" out of that kind of investment?
I don't remember who it was, but some pundit said it recently....basically that we have repeatedly invested heavily in drafting defense early but for all of that we don't really have anyone we've drafted who other teams have to game-plan for on defense. Alexander when he played, and maybe Cooper is getting there, but otherwise there's not a lot of defenders we've drafted recently who other teams have to go out of their way to account for. Gary, Stokes, Savage, Van Ness etc can all be "contributors" but they're not players that opposing OCs are losing sleep over figuring out how to handle...
So, I dunno. Is that unfair for that to be the expectation? Maybe so but IMO it's better to aim for a higher standard than "started games for us as a rookie" or at least have that as the bare minimum expectation. If we are just looking to draft guys who can be solid contributors and/or starters then perhaps we should just go ahead and trade down out of the first every year, as Gute's shown he can draft starters and contributors outside of round 1 just fine...
I'd also push back some on this...Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary absolutely are part of game plans...there is a reasons both in many seasons on any snap one of them is getting doubled (or Gary minimum getting TE help rubs).
IMO a normal push off may not have been called, but once the facemask was involved it drew a flag. And if you are wondering I was for the OVER.
Similar threads
