Fire Joe Barry -- Updated -- he's gone

[RRyder]

Only if you believe in the concept of "complementary football." As you know, the dependent variable to make your statement true is the incremental point output of your offense.

Sure but it's not believing in a concept to point out that the offensive possessions also increased by 50% in that hypothetical

 

[games]

None of them completely capture it because football is too complex to be reduced to metrics, which is one reason why it's such a beautiful game.

You don't happen to be a former head scout for the Oakland A's do you? <jk>

 

[milani]

That defense that gave up 600 in 150 possessions is a **** ton better then the one that gave up 500 in 100.

Seriously though. Why does every post here need an "lol"?

LOL!

 

[games]

Sure but it's not believing in a concept to point out that the offensive possessions also increased by 50% in that hypothetical

Yeah, but saying "gross points allowed don't matter" just sounds wrong. I wouldn't want to die on that hill.

My argument against Joe Barry is based on two things, one statistical and one observation:

1. The Packers Defense DVOA sucks on ice - DVOA is divorced from points allowed, and instead gets into how successful opposing offenses are in achieving specified goals on each down they play. In my analysis, PLAYOFF TEAMS have a HIGH correlation between their NFL ranking in Defensive DVOA and Defensive PPG Allowed. Put different: The Packers defense having a below average defensive DVOA but a #10 ranking in defensive PPG allowed is a STATISTICAL ANOMALY. IT CAN'T LAST.
I'd add there is less correlation when you get to mid- and lower-tier teams.

2. Game-Ending Stands - I used to go to golf clinics with a certain instructor. Clinics limited to 12-14 people. His specialty was to identify the 1-2 most significant flaws in your game. He took video of each attendee doing two swings in front of the entire group. He used pressure to reveal your worst swing flaws.

In this case, look at how the Packers defense ends games. They could have easily lost versus the Saints (missed FG) and Chargers (dropped TD catch). They could have been tied by Chiefs (no-call on DPI) and Panthers (quick clock on game-tying FG). It's clear that in pressure situations, this defensive scheme isn't stopping anyone. We have to hope the ball is in the hands of the offense to either score or run the clock.

 

[Schultz]

IMO. I am convinced that AK(moe-larry the)Cheese is playing the old "how many people can I get to respond to my silly posts" drinking game. As someone who has also played the game on this board, I can only say : well played sir.

 

[RRyder]

Yeah, but saying "gross points allowed don't matter" just sounds wrong. I wouldn't want to die on that hill.

My argument against Joe Barry is based on two things, one statistical and one observation:

1. The Packers Defense DVOA sucks on ice - DVOA is divorced from points allowed, and instead gets into how successful opposing offenses are in achieving specified goals on each down they play. In my analysis, PLAYOFF TEAMS have a HIGH correlation between their NFL ranking in Defensive DVOA and Defensive PPG Allowed. Put different: The Packers defense having a below average defensive DVOA but a #10 ranking in defensive PPG allowed is a STATISTICAL ANOMALY. IT CAN'T LAST.
I'd add there is less correlation when you get to mid- and lower-tier teams.

2. Game-Ending Stands - I used to go to golf clinics with a certain instructor. Clinics limited to 12-14 people. His specialty was to identify the 1-2 most significant flaws in your game. He took video of each attendee doing two swings in front of the entire group. He used pressure to reveal your worst swing flaws.

In this case, look at how the Packers defense ends games. They could have easily lost versus the Saints (missed FG) and Chargers (dropped TD catch). They could have been tied by Chiefs (no-call on DPI) and Panthers (quick clock on game-tying FG). It's clear that in pressure situations, this defensive scheme isn't stopping anyone. We have to hope the ball is in the hands of the offense to either score or run the clock.

What I said was points allowed per possession is a much more important stat then gross points allowed. That is a hill I'll die on since simply useing the later to decide whether a defense performed is just lazy analysis and doesn't give any real insight into how well a defense actually played.

It's the equivalent of pointing to an NBA player that average ls 20 ppg and labeling him a good offensive player while ignoring things like usage, TS%, TO%, etc etc

No single stat should be used . Some are better than others, but you should still look at a collection of them to guage an offensive or defensive unit.

AK on the other hand simply wants to point to gross points and say "me think defense not bad because this"

 

[AKCheese]

Hard to argue with a defense that allows fewer points than 70% of the league. Could it be better? Yup LOL

 

[games]

I was looking for a graphic to illustrate the problem with "bend don't break."
I think this is perfect. Thanks to PFF link HERE:
Lots of good team stats on that page. Well worth a read.

JB's defense does not have aggressive secondary play (unless Jaire goes rogue), jarring tackling, or heavy doses of blitzing.
To an extent, that's understandable because you've had 15 years of QB'ing of high TD/INT ratios. Your defense isn't physical, so you're giving up chances to force fumbles in favor of more speed to tackle to prevent chunk plays.

Look below at the company the Packers are in versus the upper tier teams in the playoffs.
To me, this graphic illustrates THE MYTH OF COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL.
Division Winners: 6 of 8 are upper tier in both points gained via takeaway and least points given up by takeaway (Bucs, Lions, Bills, Cowboys, 49ers, Ravens). The only other playoff team in that quadrant is the Steelers.

Chiefs and Texans were the only two division winners not in the upper right quadrant AND no one else from their divisions are in the playoffs, either. Hmm...

Other playoff teams joining the Packers in the lower three quadrants were Dolphins, Eagles, Browns and Rams. Like the Packers, the Dolphins (under Fangio) and the Eagles also play similar bend but don't break schemes.

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[RRyder]

I was looking for a graphic to illustrate the problem with "bend don't break."
I think this is perfect. Thanks to PFF link HERE:
Lots of good team stats on that page. Well worth a read.

JB's defense does not have aggressive secondary play (unless Jaire goes rogue), jarring tackling, or heavy doses of blitzing.
To an extent, that's understandable because you've had 15 years of QB'ing of high TD/INT ratios. Your defense isn't physical, so you're giving up chances to force fumbles in favor of more speed to tackle to prevent chunk plays.

Look below at the company the Packers are in versus the upper tier teams in the playoffs.
To me, this graphic illustrates THE MYTH OF COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL.
Division Winners: 6 of 8 are upper tier in both points gained via takeaway and least points given up by takeaway (Bucs, Lions, Bills, Cowboys, 49ers, Ravens). The only other playoff team in that quadrant is the Steelers.

Chiefs and Texans were the only two division winners not in the upper right quadrant AND no one else from their divisions are in the playoffs, either. Hmm...

Other playoff teams joining the Packers in the lower three quadrants were Dolphins, Eagles, Browns and Rams. Like the Packers, the Dolphins (under Fangio) and the Eagles also play similar bend but don't break schemes.

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I'm confused on how showing that having offenses that don't turn the ball over with defenses that force turnovers is a recipe for success makes "complementary football" a myth? Seems like complementary football to me.

 

[Dantés]

This is just a guess/hunch, but I think this game will determine what happens to Barry.

I don’t think LaFleur wants to fire him. My conjecture is that he will only do it if the other powers in the organization force his hand. But if the defense continues to play well and they beat Dallas, that will give him the ammo he needs to defend him and keep him in place.

Now obviously given how the Dallas offense plays at home, the odds are that Barry’s defense gets smoked and he’s gone. But there’s a very realistic scenario here where that doesn’t happen. The defensive front of GB has been playing very well and Dallas could be missing Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, and Zack Martin. Plus their right tackle is a bad pass protector.

Typically when Barry’s defense performs well, it’s because the front dominates and saves his soft/predictable coverage patterns from getting picked apart. I could see that happening on Sunday.

 

[AKCheese]

It would be truly idiotic to make a decision Re:Barry (one way or the other) based on one game. Hopefully the Packer organization is more professional than that.

 

[milani]

This is just a guess/hunch, but I think this game will determine what happens to Barry.

I don’t think LaFleur wants to fire him. My conjecture is that he will only do it if the other powers in the organization force his hand. But if the defense continues to play well and they beat Dallas, that will give him the ammo he needs to defend him and keep him in place.

Now obviously given how the Dallas offense plays at home, the odds are that Barry’s defense gets smoked and he’s gone. But there’s a very realistic scenario here where that doesn’t happen. The defensive front of GB has been playing very well and Dallas could be missing Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, and Zack Martin. Plus their right tackle is a bad pass protector.

Typically when Barry’s defense performs well, it’s because the front dominates and saves his soft/predictable coverage patterns from getting picked apart. I could see that happening on Sunday.

Most teams going into Dallas will get smoked. They can run quick outs and then play action or just pound you with Pollard. You can hope to get them to 3rd down or get a flag. Zak is not Fields. He sees what is in front of him. Although Dallas commits a lot of penalties trying to be aggressive and keep up with them will precipitate some penalties of our own. And Prescott can run himself.

 

[Dantés]

Most teams going into Dallas will get smoked. They can run quick outs and then play action or just pound you with Pollard. You can hope to get them to 3rd down or get a flag. Zak is not Fields. He sees what is in front of him. Although Dallas commits a lot of penalties trying to be aggressive and keep up with them will precipitate some penalties of our own. And Prescott can run himself.

Only thing I would disagree with is their run game. It stinks. Now it could have success against GB because Barry’s defense can make any rush attack look great on a given day. But they’re not good.

 

[milani]

Only thing I would disagree with is their run game. It stinks. Now it could have success against GB because Barry’s defense can make any rush attack look great on a given day. But they’re not good.

If it stinks how does Pollard become a 1000 yard rusher and average 4.1 per carry?

 

[rmontro]

Now obviously given how the Dallas offense plays at home, the odds are that Barry’s defense gets smoked and he’s gone.

I watched one of those YouTube videos where they run Madden simulations, and they did this Packers/Cowboys playoff game. Their result was Dallas winning, 44-20. I thought that seemed like a very realistic possible outcome. Not saying the Packers can't win, there's another scenario where they do. But there's another one where they simply outscore us.

Anyway, I was thinking if it was 44-20 Dallas, Barry would be gone. If we actually win and shut down their vaunted offense, maybe not.

The way I feel about this game is that Dallas is a fully formed team, ready to make their run. We are up and comers.

 

[milani]

I watched one of those YouTube videos where they run Madden simulations, and they did this Packers/Cowboys playoff game. Their result was Dallas winning, 44-20. I thought that seemed like a very realistic possible outcome. Not saying the Packers can't win, there's another scenario where they do. But there's another one where they simply outscore us.

Anyway, I was thinking if it was 44-20 Dallas, Barry would be gone. If we actually win and shut down their vaunted offense, maybe not.

The way I feel about this game is that Dallas is a fully formed team, ready to make their run. We are up and comers.

Exactly. In this one it is very easy to understand getting smoked when you are a Not Ready for Prime Time Player. What was difficult was getting smoked in Atlanta 7 years ago with that team after beating Dallas the week before in their place.

 

[PikeBadger]

This is just a guess/hunch, but I think this game will determine what happens to Barry.

I don’t think LaFleur wants to fire him. My conjecture is that he will only do it if the other powers in the organization force his hand. But if the defense continues to play well and they beat Dallas, that will give him the ammo he needs to defend him and keep him in place.

Now obviously given how the Dallas offense plays at home, the odds are that Barry’s defense gets smoked and he’s gone. But there’s a very realistic scenario here where that doesn’t happen. The defensive front of GB has been playing very well and Dallas could be missing Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, and Zack Martin. Plus their right tackle is a bad pass protector.

Typically when Barry’s defense performs well, it’s because the front dominates and saves his soft/predictable coverage patterns from getting picked apart. I could see that happening on Sunday.

I was not aware that Dallas had significant offensive line injury problems.
I'm very happy. I think Dallas is screwed.

Edit: If Smith, Smith and Martin don't play, we'll win by at least 17. Also hoping for bad weather in Dallas area. Packer fans will walk 10 miles if need be. It would turn into a home game.

Double Edit: I'm so fired up now! Bring on San Fransisco!

 

[Dantés]

If it stinks how does Pollard become a 1000 yard rusher and average 4.1 per carry?

Well he hit 1000 yards (barely) because he got so many carries (252).

He actually averaged 4.0 YPC. That's a bad number for anyone, and a terrible one for a runner like Pollard. It's tied for 27th among backs who got at least 100 carries.

 

[milani]

I was not aware that Dallas had significant offensive line injury problems.
I'm very happy. I think Dallas is screwed.

Edit: If Smith, Smith and Martin don't play, we'll win by at least 17. Also hoping for bad weather in Dallas area. Packer fans will walk 10 miles if need be. It would turn into a home game.

Double Edit: I'm so fired up now! Bring on San Fransisco!

Cowboys are saying Martin should be good to go.

 

[Dantés]

I was not aware that Dallas had significant offensive line injury problems.
I'm very happy. I think Dallas is screwed.

Edit: If Smith, Smith and Martin don't play, we'll win by at least 17. Also hoping for bad weather in Dallas area. Packer fans will walk 10 miles if need be. It would turn into a home game.

Double Edit: I'm so fired up now! Bring on San Fransisco!

Yesterday's practice report for them:

Martin: DNP (Rest)
Tyr. Smith: DNP (Rest)
Tyl. Smith: Limited (Foot)

Tyron Smith played almost all of their week 17 game, so he should be out there. Martin and Tyler Smith didn't play and are question marks.

I haven't seen their final injury report to see how they're listed for the game.

 

[milani]

Well he hit 1000 yards (barely) because he got so many carries (252).

He actually averaged 4.0 YPC. That's a bad number for anyone, and a terrible one for a runner like Pollard. It's tied for 27th among backs who got at least 100 carries.

With their passing attack, a QB that can run also, and a solid defense that forces turnovers...I'll take that poor running attack.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I was not aware that Dallas had significant offensive line injury problems.
I'm very happy. I think Dallas is screwed.

Edit: If Smith, Smith and Martin don't play, we'll win by at least 17. Also hoping for bad weather in Dallas area. Packer fans will walk 10 miles if need be. It would turn into a home game.

Double Edit: I'm so fired up now! Bring on San Fransisco!

The final injury report is not what I was hoping for. Besides Cooper Rush, the Cowboys appear to be pretty "healthy".

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[rmontro]

Exactly. In this one it is very easy to understand getting smoked when you are a Not Ready for Prime Time Player. What was difficult was getting smoked in Atlanta 7 years ago with that team after beating Dallas the week before in their place.

Yes. And getting beaten as the #1 seed two years in a row recently. And losing home playoff games to the Giants, twice.

 

[milani]

The final injury report is not what I was hoping for. Besides Cooper Rush, the Cowboys appear to be pretty "healthy".

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I think even earlier in the week they only listed 5-7 compared to our laundry list.

 

[milani]

Yes. And getting beaten as the #1 seed two years in a row recently. And losing home playoff games to the Giants, twice.

Lombardi just would not let that happen. After 1960 his determination grew more.