End of season WR2 for the packers predictions.

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't remember too many thinking Gmo would replace Cobb. They're not remotely similar in how they play, but I and others did think this offense would have enough to be plenty potent.

Well, there was at least one poster even tooting his own horn about Allison's ability to play in the slot

https://www.packerforum.com/threads/2019-udfa-news-and-signings.82742/page-13#post-834931

I am going to say Reggie Begelton...Lazard is the smart pick, as Begelton may not make the team, but if he is the real deal, the Packers could be in very good shape.

The Packers receiving corps isn't in good shape if they have to rely on a CFL import to have an impact.

 

[tynimiller]

I will also add that MVS or ESB becoming the #2 WR would help this offense more than Lazard being the #2 for the simple reason that MVS or ESB add a deep threat element that is missing with Lazard on the field. Adams/Lazard/Sternberger/Lewis is not a receiving group that is going to have any defenses fearing the deep pass. Replace Lazard/Lewis with MVS or ESB and you have a guy on the field that safeties have to worry about getting behind them and that will also open up more space for underneath routes or running lanes.

Although this is also assuming that either of those two can be good run blockers because that's going to be a more important requirement under MLF than it was under MM.

I don't disagree with that theory, mainly because you are right in that if a WR like MVS or EQ catch fire they diversify an offense vastly more. That said the system MLF is building here does playcate to the possession style WRs like Lazard and Funchess well. You described precisely how though I feel MVS, EQ and Begelton will all have a shot at making the roster as a contributor. The WR room is a very intriguing for sure.

 

[jon]

and for 5 million bucks with is experience I'd take it. had they paid him the 10 we were for that? suddenly that 828 and 3TD's doesn't look all that inviting either.

Oh, yeah, the money part....

Well, I am not a GM just a fan. I really like Cobb and I like how slot guys really help an offense so I would've kept him. But, yeah, you've got to consider cost.

 

[Mondio]

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Cobb fan myself. Great guy and player. Absolute Bear Killer and not bad as a salad either, just add chicken

 

[thequick12]

Still don't understand the love for St. Brown as he never really popped off my screen. Imo MVS is just as good if not better than he is and has higher upside.

As rookies EQ was way more developed as a wr than mvs. Not sure what would of happened in year 2 but I'd bet eq would of had close to 50 catches had he not been injured. He's just far more of a complete wr. He was clearly more on the same page as Rodgers and thus Rodgers had noticeably more trust in him. And that counts for a lot

 

[Fredrik87]

As rookies EQ was way more developed as a wr than mvs. Not sure what would of happened in year 2 but I'd bet eq would of had close to 50 catches had he not been injured. He's just far more of a complete wr. He was clearly more on the same page as Rodgers and thus Rodgers had noticeably more trust in him. And that counts for a lot

Plus some of the catches he made along the sideline as a rookie were incredible in particular the one against SF and the one against the jets.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Still don't understand the love for St. Brown as he never really popped off my screen. Imo MVS is just as good if not better than he is and has higher upside.

ESB didn't disappoint last year since he didn't play while MVS did; so there's no disappointment with ESB to fade the excitement and potential of what he can do. MVS will still probably be the more reliable receiver to start the year since ESB is going to have missed a LOT of practice time by the time he's back on the field. ESB might turn out better, but much of the difference in opinion, imo, is just the recency of MVS disappointing.

 

[OldSchool101]

I am going to say Reggie Begelton...Lazard is the smart pick, as Begelton may not make the team, but if he is the real deal, the Packers could be in very good shape.

I have a sneaking suspicion Begelton makes the team. I understand the uphill transition from the CFL argument angle, but he’s got a very good chance at making the 53. I’d say 55% range as at least out #6 WR. If not? then he’s got a 75% chance he makes the PS. As far as a #2 that may be a reach in year 1. He’ll have to beat out Funchess, EQ and Lazard and I don’t see that happening. Not just due to lack of talent, but GB has invested both monetarily and systematically in those guys and those 3 will get plenty of looks with the 1st team. There’s only so many snaps to go around.
I think EQ is going to surprise some folks in here though.

I’ll say this, If Begelton wins a roster spot (cause he’ll have to bring his A game and he definitely has one) he won’t take the typical 3 seasons to flourish. He’ll be taking EQ’s spot producing at ST to start and likely given some snaps on O if there’s an injury etc..,

 

[tynimiller]

I agree on Reggie. His top shelf, exceed expectations would be being the for sure #4 at some point. Realistically he will be battling to win the final active roster WR spot is my guess...but I do think he is much better than many think.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I’ll say this, If Begelton wins a roster spot (cause he’ll have to bring his A game and he definitely has one) he won’t take the typical 3 seasons to flourish.

It's actually a myth many Packers fans believe for some reason that it typically takes wide receivers three years to have an impact in the league.

 

[OldSchool101]

It's actually a myth many Packers fans believe for some reason that it typically takes wide receivers three years to have an impact in the league.

It absolutely has been in GB. So it’s not a myth here.

 

[Mavster]

It absolutely has been in GB. So it’s not a myth here.

If so which receivers are you talking about?

 

[tynimiller]

It absolutely has been in GB. So it’s not a myth here.

I'll disagree....with some sure, BUT one must dig deeper than surface. Often times this has been the case in Green Bay solely due to the depth chart ahead of them. Let's discuss the 5 or 6 most recent successful cases of Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb and Adams...the 5 most recent successful and drafted by us WRs we have:

Jennings (06'): Only clear guy ahead of him was Driver. 2006 drafted, closed that season with 632 yards - 45 receptions and 3 touchdowns.

Jones (07'): His first year (2007) the dude started 9 games and garnered 676 yards - 47 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Dude delivered early.

Nelson (08'): Was firmly behind Driver and Jennings and James Jones a year prior as a rookie had stacked up an AWESOME rookie year...and a strong TE group that took targets away. Wasn't until year 4 that he was able to garner more targets. However, as a rookie he was consistent when asked - 366 Yards - 33 receptions and two touchdowns.


Cobb (11'): Drafted in 2011 and OUT THE GATE delivered as he could. He was FIRMLY behind Driver, Jennings, Jones, Nelson and Finley(TE) he still somehow produced BIG numbers on special teams (over 1200 yards and 2 TDs) on offense still produced 375 yards - 25 receptions and 1 TD

Adams (14'): Drafted and behind Cobb and Nelson clearly, while everyone wondered if 2013 and Boykin's performance was legit or could Adams push to the #3 quickly. Adams put forth SOLID rookie numbers at 446 yards on 38 receptions and 3 touchdowns once he earned time and never looked back.


Now a few others that saw success early but we don't know future progression or sustainability:

MVS (18') - 3rd on the team in receptions...finished his rookie year with 581 yards - 38 receptions and 2 TDs

EQ (18') - In basically the last quarter of the season he put up awesome numbers with 328 yards and 21 receptions


Few memorable guys that arguably fit the "took a while to flourish"

Ferguson - I remember thinking he was going to progress into the second coming of Antonio Freeman...had a great 3rd season and then just fizzled out.

**Javon Walker - Honestly should have been included in the first group but his career just isn't as good...talk about BOOM and then nothing. His first year he was the #3, and then arguably our 2nd best WR...so another that showed early he could produce.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'll disagree....with some sure, BUT one must dig deeper than surface. Often times this has been the case in Green Bay solely due to the depth chart ahead of them. Let's discuss the 5 or 6 most recent successful cases of Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb and Adams...the 5 most recent successful and drafted by us WRs we have:

Jennings (06'): Only clear guy ahead of him was Driver. 2006 drafted, closed that season with 632 yards - 45 receptions and 3 touchdowns.

Jones (07'): His first year (2007) the dude started 9 games and garnered 676 yards - 47 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Dude delivered early.

Nelson (08'): Was firmly behind Driver and Jennings and James Jones a year prior as a rookie had stacked up an AWESOME rookie year...and a strong TE group that took targets away. Wasn't until year 4 that he was able to garner more targets. However, as a rookie he was consistent when asked - 366 Yards - 33 receptions and two touchdowns.


Cobb (11'): Drafted in 2011 and OUT THE GATE delivered as he could. He was FIRMLY behind Driver, Jennings, Jones, Nelson and Finley(TE) he still somehow produced BIG numbers on special teams (over 1200 yards and 2 TDs) on offense still produced 375 yards - 25 receptions and 1 TD

Adams (14'): Drafted and behind Cobb and Nelson clearly, while everyone wondered if 2013 and Boykin's performance was legit or could Adams push to the #3 quickly. Adams put forth SOLID rookie numbers at 446 yards on 38 receptions and 3 touchdowns once he earned time and never looked back.


Now a few others that saw success early but we don't know future progression or sustainability:

MVS (18') - 3rd on the team in receptions...finished his rookie year with 581 yards - 38 receptions and 2 TDs

EQ (18') - In basically the last quarter of the season he put up awesome numbers with 328 yards and 21 receptions


Few memorable guys that arguably fit the "took a while to flourish"

Ferguson - I remember thinking he was going to progress into the second coming of Antonio Freeman...had a great 3rd season and then just fizzled out.

**Javon Walker - Honestly should have been included in the first group but his career just isn't as good...talk about BOOM and then nothing. His first year he was the #3, and then arguably our 2nd best WR...so another that showed early he could produce.

I appreciate the effort there Tyni. So I guess you could say an average of 486 yards is making an impact. I won’t say that doesn’t help.

But for full disclosure the “coming out party” for
Jennings was the fastest in Year 2 and you’re talking a #52 overall pick there. Every other WR Jordy, Adams, Cobb etc.. all had their party year 3 or year 4. Not one WR in a GB uniform came anywhere close to bring “impact” in a Rookie season and all of the successful WR took their jump year 3
(except Jordy year 4 and Jennings year 2).


In short, think we just have completely different views of the word “impact” when it comes to a WR on a NFL team.
To be fair and accurate we need to look at the definition of word impact (not our definition) is defined as “having a strong effect on something”. I don’t think 486 yards has a “strong effect”. Strong to me? 750+ Yards, that’s when a WR gets my attention. I’m being reasonable I started saying 850+ Saying 486 yards is impact is like saying having 4 sacks is impactful. If we get objective? I think most other teams fans wouldn’t be impressed by 486 yards in years 1 or 2 for a GB receiver.

I’ll stand by my earlier statement. GB receivers have had a “strong effect” in year 3 with rare exception.

 

[tynimiller]

I appreciate the effort there Tyni. So I guess you could say an average of 486 yards is making an impact. I won’t say that doesn’t help.

But for full disclosure the “coming out party” for
Jennings was the fastest. Year 2. Really year 3 is where he was high impact (or by definition having a strong impact). Every other WR Jordy, Adams, Cobb etc.. all had their party year 3 or year 4. Not one WR in a GB uniform came anywhere close to bring “impact” in a Rookie season and all of the successful WR took their jump year 3
(except Jordy year 4 and Jennings year 2).


In short, think we just have completely different views of the word “impact” when it comes to a WR on a NFL team. The word impact is defined as “having a strong effect on something”. I don’t think 486 yards has a “strong effect”. Strong to me? 750+ Yards, that’s when a WR gets my attention. I’m being reasonable I started saying 850+ Saying 486 yards is impact is like saying having 4 sacks is impactful.

You cannot expect any of those WRs with stellar careers to have done more their first year though, given their depth spot coming in. I mean the fact all of them did what they did (Jennings is an exception) is incredible really.

 

[OldSchool101]

You cannot expect any of those WRs with stellar careers to have done more their first year though, given their depth spot coming in. I mean the fact all of them did what they did (Jennings is an exception) is incredible really.

Don’t take this the wrong way. I’m not taking shots at GB receivers who eventually had successful careers. The good news is that I AM pointing out that this year 2020, is a 3rd season (or 3rd season equivalency) for a host of Packer Wideouts. It’s also the reason I believe Gute didn’t go WR once pick #30 was gone, he knows this and he 100% expects a current WR on the roster to be truly impactful this season. (Behind the obvious Adams).

We are saying the same thing as far as this debate, just getting there a different way. I’m very confident a 3rd year+ WR steps up big time into that 750+ impact arena.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

EQ (18') - In basically the last quarter of the season he put up awesome numbers with 328 yards and 21 receptions

I agree with the rest of your post but just for the record EQ had a reception in 10 different games during his rookie season.

I appreciate the effort there Tyni. So I guess you could say an average of 486 yards is making an impact. I won’t say that doesn’t help.

But for full disclosure the “coming out party” for
Jennings was the fastest in Year 2 and you’re talking a #52 overall pick there. Every other WR Jordy, Adams, Cobb etc.. all had their party year 3 or year 4. Not one WR in a GB uniform came anywhere close to bring “impact” in a Rookie season and all of the successful WR took their jump year 3
(except Jordy year 4 and Jennings year 2).

You completely ignore that the Packers are currently in dire need of a decent #2 wide receiver while the team was mostly stacked at the position during the rookie seasons of the players you compare the situation to.

In addition while 486 yards isn't a huge number it would have ranked second on the Packers last season. On top of that nine rookie WRs eclipsed that number in 2019 in a class that wasn't considered to be even nearly as deep as this year's.

The good news is that I AM pointing out that this year 2020, is a 3rd season (or 3rd season equivalency) for a host of Packer Wideouts. It’s also the reason I believe Gute didn’t go WR once pick #30 was gone, he knows this and he 100% expects a current WR on the roster to be truly impactful this season. (Behind the obvious Adams).

Gutekunst solely relying on MVS or EQ taking a third year jump because it happened with other receivers in the past would be a terrible approach.

 

[OldSchool101]

Gutekunst solely relying on MVS or EQ taking a third year jump because it happened with other receivers in the past would be a terrible approach.

Gutenkunst is relying on ALL young players getting better from season to season (Particular past their a Rookie season) and that’s pretty common knowledge so I’m not sure why that surprised you so much.
As far as a #2 WR? We should absolutely, positively, categorically and without exception..expect a WR improve over lasts seasons 480’s yards #2 finish.
I’ll further that sentiment by saying 486 yards range is a near pathetic number for a #2 WR to finish when you consider who we have under Center. If you can’t produce better than 500 yards for your #2 WR along with your #1 WR missing games? You need to hang up your cleats and play shuffleboard. If this concept that 486 yards is an “impactful” WR continues its recent infectious spread? It’ll set an all time Packer low expectations.

We should be tripping through the door over that 486 yards just going through the motions. A decent RB has more yards receiving than that.

In addition while 486 yards isn't a huge number it would have ranked second on the Packers last season. On top of that nine rookie WRs eclipsed that number in 2019 in a class that wasn't considered to be even nearly as deep as this year's.

For the 3rd time.. If you’re using last season as a comparison for greatness of an early “impact” receiver argument?
That’s pretty dismal.
This is GB Wisconsin, not the Canadian farm league. You either set your mind on greatness or you (folks in general) should take up badminton (actually I’m sorry to Badminton players everywhere, they have higher standards than that! they would probably be disgusted with that performance).

 

[HardRightEdge]

Perhaps Sternberger and Deguara will combine for 2,237 yards and 24 TDs like Gronkowski and Hernandez in 2011. Stranger things have happened. Check that...stranger things have never happened.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Gutenkunst is relying on ALL young players getting better from season to season (Particular past their a Rookie season) and that’s pretty common knowledge so I’m not sure why that surprised you so much.

The Packers will be extremely disappointed if they rely on all players in their second or third season to improve. As I've mentioned repeatedly out of 21 draft picks in 2017 and '18 Aaron Jones was the only one who performed at a significantly better level last season.

As far as a #2 WR? We should absolutely, positively, categorically and without exception..expect a WR improve over lasts seasons 480’s yards #2 finish.
I’ll further that sentiment by saying 486 yards range is a near pathetic number for a #2 WR to finish when you consider who we have under Center. If you can’t produce better than 500 yards for your #2 WR along with your #1 WR missing games? You need to hang up your cleats and play shuffleboard. If this concept that 486 yards is an “impactful” WR continues its recent infectious spread? It’ll set an all time Packer low expectations.

We should be tripping through the door over that 486 yards just going through the motions. A decent RB has more yards receiving than that.

For the 3rd time.. If you’re using last season as a comparison for greatness of an early “impact” receiver argument?
That’s pretty dismal.
This is GB Wisconsin, not the Canadian farm league. You either set your mind on greatness or you (folks in general) should take up badminton (actually I’m sorry to Badminton players everywhere, they have higher standards than that! they would probably be disgusted with that performance).

You don't seem to understand that my point is that Gutekunst should be criticized for not adding another wide receiver aside of Funchess despite the position being in dire need of an upgrade. I'm not advocating being fine with the #2 pass catcher on the team finishing with less than 500 yards by any means.

 

[jon]

The Packers will be extremely disappointed if they rely on all players in their second or third season to improve.

Yes.
This is like the discussion in another thread about Rashan Gary turning into a DT to stop the run. "Draft & develop" is good and builds a solid team when done well, but it cannot be relied upon to fill clear weak spots and put a team over the top.
Drafting for the long term is the best strategy but sometimes you've got act for now. Management exists to make the tough decisions, the exceptions to strategy and policy.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not advocating being fine with the #2 pass catcher on the team finishing with less than 500 yards by any means.

Then if you really believe that? you can’t simultaneously have it both ways.. by also saying those are “impact”. players (which YOU argued) It’s called having your cake and eating it too.

The Packers will be extremely disappointed if they rely on all players in their second or third season to improve.

It’s ignorant of anyone, novice fan or professional GM or Coach to expect 100% improvement from every player and that’s a stab at being totally ridiculous. This isn’t fantasy land.
At the same time? its absolutely imperative they hire the best coaches who get more out of each young draft pick as each season progresses or you cut bait. You don’t go around moping with some sort of defeatist attitude as a coach just because you didn’t get your personal draft choice of player at a particular position. I heard your exact same sentiment last season with me suggesting we grab Devante Parker to pair with Adams. I heard what a total BUST he was because he didn’t perform his ROOKIE season. Where was he drafted again? There were people in THIS very forum that called Parker a total failure because they didn’t have “PROOF”.
So I don’t apologize when I say I don’t believe you, when you use that argument, because I just watched it fail.
If you don’t expect any young players coming off Rookie seasons to improve? or coming off an early injury season to contribute much more than not playing? Then that speaks to me you don’t believe in the very fabric of drafting and development, which all 32 franchises do and do often and regularly. And if you think a day 2 WR is going to give you a better “Win Now” chance? you’ll be far more disappointed than me and the apparently the vast majority of the entire GB staff opinion of getting improvement from 1 or more of Lazard, EQ, MVS, Funchess or Begelton.

 

[Fredrik87]

Then if you really believe that? you can’t simultaneously have it both ways.. by also saying those are “impact”. players (which YOU argued) It’s called having your cake and eating it too.

The players you are talking about were WR3/WR4's 450 yards and a few TD's is impactful for a WR3 it is not for a WR2.
So the statements aren't contradictory.

It’s ignorant of anyone, novice fan or professional GM or Coach to expect 100% improvement from every player and that’s a stab at being totally ridiculous. This isn’t fantasy land.
At the same time? its absolutely imperative they hire the best coaches who get more out of each young draft pick as each season progresses or you cut bait. You don’t go around moping with some sort of defeatist attitude as a coach just because you didn’t get your personal draft choice of player at a particular position.

Nobody here is a coach for the packers we get to complain in public, they don't they have to act as if all is fine and do the best with what they have regardless of how bad their players may be.
Besides which you don't expect any of our 3rd year WR's to outperform Funchess who isn't that good and only has one season in which he had over the 750 yards mark and into the impact arena as you call it.
It doesn't appear you have much faith in these 3rd year guys either.

I heard your exact same sentiment last season with me suggesting we grab Devante Parker to pair with Adams. I heard what a total BUST he was because he didn’t perform his ROOKIE season. Where was he drafted again? There were people in THIS very forum that called Parker a total failure because they didn’t have “PROOF”.

I wasn't on this forum then but I like Parker and I think he would have made a impact earlier if it were not for Adam Gase who is IMO the worst coach in the NFL to still somehow have a job.
And you yourself mentioned Parkers draft position he was first rounder our guys are all 5th round or later their odds of success are lower.

Also with Parker you are bringing in the rest of the NFL into play so what about Rookie WR's that get over your 750 yard impact threshold?
In the last 5 years alone guys like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridly, DJ Moore, Terry Mclaurin, Darius Slayton(I think 740 yards is close enough), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper have all put up good numbers as Rookies.

If you don’t expect any young players coming off Rookie seasons to improve? or coming off an early injury season to contribute much more than not playing? Then that speaks to me you don’t believe in the very fabric of drafting and development, which all 32 franchises do and do often and regularly. And if you think a day 2 WR is going to give you a better “Win Now” chance? you’ll be far more disappointed than me and the apparently the vast majority of the entire GB staff opinion of getting improvement from 1 or more of Lazard, EQ, MVS, Funchess or Begelton.

What Rookies we don't have anyone coming off of Rookie seasons they all have been here for two years and didn't improve from their rookie season to last year.
They are also late round picks or UDFA's that have lower odds of success than higher picks.

And just because you want a team to draft a player at a position were your current players have not played well at so far.....that also happens to be the deepest position in the entire draft possibly the richest draft at that position ever does not mean you don't believe in draft and develop.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Then if you really believe that? you can’t simultaneously have it both ways.. by also saying those are “impact”. players (which YOU argued) It’s called having your cake and eating it too.

You need to read more carefully. I never mentioned that a #2 receiver with less than 500 yards should be considered an impact player.

It’s ignorant of anyone, novice fan or professional GM or Coach to expect 100% improvement from every player and that’s a stab at being totally ridiculous. This isn’t fantasy land.
At the same time? its absolutely imperative they hire the best coaches who get more out of each young draft pick as each season progresses or you cut bait. You don’t go around moping with some sort of defeatist attitude as a coach just because you didn’t get your personal draft choice of player at a particular position.

Once again, you should pay more attention. You were the one mentioning that it's common knowledge that second and third year players improving are a major part of a team performing at a better level. I countered that it didn't happen with the Packers last season.

I heard your exact same sentiment last season with me suggesting we grab Devante Parker to pair with Adams. I heard what a total BUST he was because he didn’t perform his ROOKIE season.

I would be interested in you proving that statement to be true.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As rookies EQ was way more developed as a wr than mvs. Not sure what would of happened in year 2 but I'd bet eq would of had close to 50 catches had he not been injured. He's just far more of a complete wr. He was clearly more on the same page as Rodgers and thus Rodgers had noticeably more trust in him. And that counts for a lot

Good analysis, thanks. IMO, ESB adjusted faster to the pro game than MVS. Even in his second year, MVS looked like he was playing by NCAA rules (for example, he’d seem to forget that he needed two feet in bounds on sideline catches and failed to make the adjustment).

Some of it is probably due to maturity as well. At any rate, I think ESB is the better player between the two. And talking about maturity, that’s what kept J Moore from realizing his potential. Marginal college players who adjust quickly to the rules and speed of the NFL just do better. It’s not always a question of pure athletic talent.