Consider the 49ers running game

[Fat Dogs]

And how bad they whooped us.

Good running games win games

I 100% agree. It’s hard to be one dimensional and win games. Having a good running game greatly increases your odds of success. We could have passed over Dillon and drafted a receiver opposite Adams but look at some of the best WR tandems in the league.

Evans/Godwin (Bucs 7-9) No playoffs

Beckham/Landry (6-10) no playoffs

Allen/Williams (Chargers 5-11) no playoffs

Jones/Ridley (7-9) no playoffs

The packers need to run. We were the second most pass happy team in the league last year. We only ran the ball 34.2% of the time and went 6-9-1. MLF put more focus on the running game in 2019 and we went 13-3. These are 2019’s run/pass percentages and rankings. As you can see, the leagues 5 most balanced offenses all made the playoffs.

......................run/pass

#1 Ravens...57.5%....42.5%
#2. 49ers.....51%.......49%
#3. Vikings...50.5%....49.5%
#4. Titans.....49.8%...50.2%
#5. Seahawks.48.2%..51.8%
#6. (Non playoff Colts went 7-9)
#7. Bills........47.5%....52.5%
#8. (Non playoff Raiders went 7-9)
#9. Texans 44.8%.......55.2%

now here’s where it drops.

#14 Eagles
#17 Patriots
#18 Packers
#21 Saints
#24 Chiefs

The Eagles two leading reception leaders were both tight ends (Ertz 88) And (Goedert 58.) their 3rd leading receiver was a RB (Sanders 50)

The patriots were led by (Edelman 100) and a RB (White 72)

we all know the packers situation.

The saints had Michael Thomas (149) but their next two receivers were a RB and a TE (Kamara 81) (Cook 43)

The Chiefs were the most pass happy of all the playoff teams but they were lead by a TE (Kelce 97)

My point is that 8 out of the 12 playoff teams were In the top half of the league in the percentage in which they ran the ball. Some would have you believe that the NFL is a passing league and the packers need to draft WR’s high and pass pass pass to be successful but that’s simply not the case. The goal is to invest in the run game and use play action to create mismatches for our RB’s and TE’s. IMO the Packers are building the right way (except for Love.) still hate that pick

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You said it won't help. That is a conclusive statement that he makes zero affect or difference. My rebuttal wasn't discussing whether I felt a different player would have made a bigger 2020 impact, because I do think there were others that would have. I was merely stating Dillon added to the RB group made it better, and that IMO cannot be disputed.

It's probable that Dillon will improve the running back group. The same is true for Love at quarterback and Deguara at tight end.

But that doesn't change anything about Gutekunst not upgrading the roster by much for this season, which should have been his main goal.

I 100% agree. It’s hard to be one dimensional and win games. Having a good running game greatly increases your odds of success. We could have passed over Dillon and drafted a receiver opposite Adams but look at some of the best WR tandems in the league.

Evans/Godwin (Bucs 7-9) No playoffs

Beckham/Landry (6-10) no playoffs

Allen/Williams (Chargers 5-11) no playoffs

Jones/Ridley (7-9) no playoffs

The packers need to run. We were the second most pass happy team in the league last year. We only ran the ball 34.2% of the time and went 6-9-1. MLF put more focus on the running game in 2019 and we went 13-3. These are 2019’s run/pass percentages and rankings. As you can see, the leagues 5 most balanced offenses all made the playoffs.

......................run/pass

#1 Ravens...57.5%....42.5%
#2. 49ers.....51%.......49%
#3. Vikings...50.5%....49.5%
#4. Titans.....49.8%...50.2%
#5. Seahawks.48.2%..51.8%
#6. (Non playoff Colts went 7-9)
#7. Bills........47.5%....52.5%
#8. (Non playoff Raiders went 7-9)
#9. Texans 44.8%.......55.2%

now here’s where it drops.

#14 Eagles
#17 Patriots
#18 Packers
#21 Saints
#24 Chiefs

The Eagles two leading reception leaders were both tight ends (Ertz 88) And (Goedert 58.) their 3rd leading receiver was a RB (Sanders 50)

The patriots were led by (Edelman 100) and a RB (White 72)

we all know the packers situation.

The saints had Michael Thomas (149) but their next two receivers were a RB and a TE (Kamara 81) (Cook 43)

The Chiefs were the most pass happy of all the playoff teams but they were lead by a TE (Kelce 97)

My point is that 8 out of the 12 playoff teams were In the top half of the league in the percentage in which they ran the ball. Some would have you believe that the NFL is a passing league and the packers need to draft WR’s high and pass pass pass to be successful but that’s simply not the case. The goal is to invest in the run game and use play action to create mismatches for our RB’s and TE’s. IMO the Packers are building the right way (except for Love.) still hate that pick

For the umpteenth time, you're correct about the running game being important. It's mind-boggling that you don't seem to understand the NFL is a passing league first and foremost though.

The main reason playoff teams rank among the league leaders in rushing play percentage is that they try to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Last season, the 12 clubs that made it to the postseason ranked within the top 13 in rushing attempts in the last 15 minutes of play.

Aside of the Ravens, who are the only true run oriented team in the league, no other offense even came close to running the ball as often as passing it over the first three quarters of a game.

Let's take a look at the Niners as an example:

In the first half they passed the ball on 57.1% of their plays, dropping to 44.8% in the second half based on the score of the game.

That doesn't make them a run first offense though.

 

[thisisnate]

Last season, the 12 clubs that made it to the postseason ranked within the top 13 in rushing attempts in the last 15 minutes of play.

Aside of the Ravens, who are the only true run oriented team in the league, no other offense even came close to running the ball as often as passing it over the first three quarters of a game.

Let's take a look at the Niners as an example:

In the first half they passed the ball on 57.1% of their plays, dropping to 44.8% in the second half based on the score of the game.

You are the master of obscure stats, and I love it.

 

[Fat Dogs]

It's probable that Dillon will improve the running back group. The same is true for Love at quarterback and Deguara at tight end.

But that doesn't change anything about Gutekunst not upgrading the roster by much for this season, which should have been his main goal.



For the umpteenth time, you're correct about the running game being important. It's mind-boggling that you don't seem to understand the NFL is a passing league first and foremost though.

The main reason playoff teams rank among the league leaders in rushing play percentage is that they try to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Last season, the 12 clubs that made it to the postseason ranked within the top 13 in rushing attempts in the last 15 minutes of play.

Aside of the Ravens, who are the only true run oriented team in the league, no other offense even came close to running the ball as often as passing it over the first three quarters of a game.

Let's take a look at the Niners as an example:

In the first half they passed the ball on 57.1% of their plays, dropping to 44.8% in the second half based on the score of the game.

That doesn't make them a run first offense though.

Ok my statement was suppose to read “because it is a passing league” some would have you believe that the packers need to draft receivers high... yes, teams pass more because today’s game is built that way. Hitting the QB is off limits and cb’s aren’t allowed to play physical. Every rule caters to the offense. That being said, the two work hand in hand. Saying a high pick for a RB is a waste of a pick is ridiculous. The NFL is ever evolving. Defenders are getting smaller and quicker to defend the spread offenses. A power rushing attack is the exact counter for this. Get big and get back to some smash mouth football. Your controlling the clock and keeping good offenses off the field. You would be a fool to think the game we know today will be the same in years to come. The teams that stay ahead of the curve are the teams that have success.

 

[Mavster]

I'd have to disagree with pretty much all of the above.

The league has been trending toward more and more passing for years now. The rules quite literally beg teams to do so. Trotting out some archaic form of smash mouth football would be counterintuitive

As for using a 2nd round pick on a RB I would say it's generally unwise. Especially when your team has plenty of more pressing needs

 

[HardRightEdge]

The main reason playoff teams rank among the league leaders in rushing play percentage is that they try to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Last season, the 12 clubs that made it to the postseason ranked within the top 13 in rushing attempts in the last 15 minutes of play.

By the same token, their opponents playing catch up throw the ball by necessity widening the disparity.

You are the master of obscure stats, and I love it.

As with most things, the reality lies below the superficial.

Ok my statement was suppose to read “because it is a passing league” some would have you believe that the packers need to draft receivers high.

Speaking only for myself, I can think of any number of position groups that could have been upgraded in Day 1 and Day 2 other than WR, or backstopped for 2021 given the free agency and cap situations in that year. My baseline expectation was a trade down out of the first round, not reaching for players. Even so, at this time next year with Adams in a contract year, assuming he plays in 2020 as we've become accustomed, I will not be surprised by the "pay the man" howling as he goes unextended.

In your SF model of success, to summarize and belabor my earlier post, they expended their cap and draft capital to reload both the O-Line and D-Line while drafting a third receiving weapon in the first round. At the same time they're de-rostering their running back group, trading Breida, not paying Mostert the puny $2 mil raise he was asking for, drafting no backs, signing no backs other than a couple of UDFAs, while prioritizing getting Kittle locked up. Their backup QB as protection against a short-term Garoppolo injury who can keep them in the hunt is C.J. Bethard, a guy who's done nothhing but lose football games, 1-9 as a starter playing with fundamentally the same roster that was winning with Garoppolo.

There is a theory extant that the line (or more correctly line+TE+FB/Hback on selected snaps) makes the runner. It would appear SF is subscribing to that. While that may be absurd at the extremes-- the elite runner or the one who is clueless--there is truth to that in the vast middle. The Packers drafted a RB who's profile is to get yards on his own.

If you want to lay out the exact opposite approach to SF's evolved approach to roster building you don't have to look very far in this precinct. If you're going to look through this Packer draft to some comparable offense or approach to roster building, looking at SF is barking up the wrong tree. Better to look at LaFleur's 2018 Titans. However, LaFleur's a pretty bright guy and has demonstrated creativity. I don't think he's stupid enough to cast Rodgers in the same role as you would with the limited Mariotta.

Nobody debates that a balanced attack is needed. As noted before, you can also throw to RBs on swings and screens as run substitution plays. The Packers ran or threw to RBs on 44% of snaps last season. That's plenty of balance.

Why Dillon, then? Because we have two RBs in contract years. Why Deguara? Because other than Lewis who is old and snap-limited this TE group are not good blockers. One might want to consider whether these moves are an effort to stay balanced not turning into to some run first affair. Frankly, I have no problem with these Day 1 and 2 picks other than they look like reaches, each worthy of being picked a round or two lower.

You probably should figure on Rodgers dropping back a minimum of 600 times, or prorated over a shortened season, around 38 times per game which would actually be about 3 fewer than last year which would be a significant difference. That's if the team is winning late in games. Otherwise, the choice will be clear and the numbers different.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I'd have to disagree with pretty much all of the above.

The league has been trending toward more and more passing for years now. The rules quite literally beg teams to do so. Trotting out some archaic form of smash mouth football would be counterintuitive

As for using a 2nd round pick on a RB I would say it's generally unwise. Especially when your team has plenty of more pressing needs

That’s fine but Your logic gives you 31 other teams trying to out throw the chiefs. The Bucs had the highest pass vs run ratio in the league. Winston threw for over 5,000 and he had two 1200 yard WR’s. He’s now jobless because he threw 30 INT’s and was sacked 47 times. You beat a team like the Chiefs by going against the grain. The 49ers nearly did it in the SB but they abandoned the run. The Ravens went out of the norm and went 14-2. The rules might be begging teams to throw but defenses game plan for this. It’s a lot harder to prepare for teams that aren’t like everyone else.

 

[HardRightEdge]

#1 Ravens...57.5%....42.5%
#2. 49ers.....51%.......49%
#3. Vikings...50.5%....49.5%
#4. Titans.....49.8%...50.2%
#5. Seahawks.48.2%..51.8%
#6. (Non playoff Colts went 7-9)
#7. Bills........47.5%....52.5%
#8. (Non playoff Raiders went 7-9)
#9. Texans 44.8%.......55.2%

These are precisely the kind of superficial stats that result in distorted perspectives. Universally, without exception, the actual split is higher pass percentages and lower run percentages than what you show by significant margins.

Let's look at the Ravens, the most extreme case. Taking pass attempts and runs and calculating percentages as you have done leaves out some important stuff.

First, Baltimore QBs were sacked 28 times. Those are pass plays not accounted for in your percentages. That's a pretty low sack number; most if not all of the other teams you listed will have higher sack counts, more plays added to the pass column. Next, how many of the 197 Baltimore QB runs were actually pass plays that ended in scrambles?

We run into a problem with a QB such as Jackson in parsing scramble runs from called runs or option runs by the QB. In some cases, particularly RPOs, it's hard to tell whether you count the play as a called run or called pass given the option aspect. Football Outsiders illustrates the problem here where the professional play counters sometimes disagree, but at the margins:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/effect-scrambles-dvoa

In any case, for illustration purposes, lets go with PFF's take. As of December 10 last season, they came up with this:

"Jackson already has 116 designed rushes to his name, and 64.4% of his rushing yards have been on these intentional rushing plays. Scrambles make up just 35 of his rushing attempts...."

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-by-the-numbers-lamar-jackson-vs-michael-vick#:~:text=Altogether, 759 of his 1,039,(Vince Young had 46).

If we apply that 23.2% scramble percentage to his season total of 176 runs you get to something like 41 scrambles. Griffin also had 20 runs on 139 snaps, more than 2 games worth of snaps. There are surely some scrambles in there and they wouldn't be running him on purpose with Jackson's frequency. Lets throw a half dozen Griffin scrambles in there for him for good measure.

Nobody seems to talk about kneel downs. If you're going about measuring run effectiveness those plays should be thrown out altogether. Winning teams tend have more of those. By all rights defenses should be allowed to concede inside two minutes just as baseball now waves intentional walks to first base. Since I have no data on kneel downs we'll have to leave that out.

So, let's sum up Baltimore's play split:

440 throws + 28 sacks + 47 estimated scrambles = 515 pass plays
596 runs - 47 estimated scrambles = 549 run plays - ? kneel downs

So, Baltimore calls pass nearly as much as run. Throw out kneel downs and you get closer to par. I think we can say Baltimore is unique in the extent to which they call QB runs or run options, well over 100. When you start looking at other teams with higher sacks and perhaps more scrambles, the actual skew toward pass vs. conventional play counts may be even higher.

You're left with relative rankings to which I say, "so what"? What we're exploring is to what extent this is a passing league and how important RBs are to the offense. It is, indisputably, a passing league which does not mean you don't look for some balance.

We can go a step further.

Baltimore handed the ball to RBs 393 times while targetting them only 51 times, a 444 snap count where RBs are the weapon of choice. With 1,111 offensive snaps, that gets you 40% of plays with the RB as the featured weapon. Conversely, the Packer RBs ran the ball 355 times while being targetted 114 times for a total of 469 plays with the RB as the weapon of choice, many of those throws being run substitutions. On 1,078 offensive snaps, the RBs were featured on 43.5% of them.

Believe it or not, the Packers offense was more RB-centric than Baltimore's, unless you want to count Jackson as a RB . Even if you throw out snaps where a RB is in the slot or out wide, where he's best categorized as a WR on that play, I'm fairly certain you'd still find the Packers to be more RB-centric if only by a smaller margin.

 

[Mavster]

That’s fine but Your logic gives you 31 other teams trying to out throw the chiefs. The Bucs had the highest pass vs run ratio in the league. Winston threw for over 5,000 and he had two 1200 yard WR’s. He’s now jobless because he threw 30 INT’s and was sacked 47 times. You beat a team like the Chiefs by going against the grain. The 49ers nearly did it in the SB but they abandoned the run. The Ravens went out of the norm and went 14-2. The rules might be begging teams to throw but defenses game plan for this. It’s a lot harder to prepare for teams that aren’t like everyone else.

C'mon the Bucs? Winston was turning the ball over at a rate that put Favre to shame. They are a complete outlier. Much like the Ravens rushing numbers. Lamar dramatically skews them.

And you seem to be making an argument against your inital point. The mighty running teams all ran out of steam

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Saying a high pick for a RB is a waste of a pick is ridiculous. The NFL is ever evolving. Defenders are getting smaller and quicker to defend the spread offenses. A power rushing attack is the exact counter for this. Get big and get back to some smash mouth football. Your controlling the clock and keeping good offenses off the field. You would be a fool to think the game we know today will be the same in years to come. The teams that stay ahead of the curve are the teams that have success.

The Packers using a second rounder on a backup running back was a terrible idea, especially considering they already used their first and fourth rounder on a backup quarterback at this point.

While it's no secret I would have liked the Packers to select a wide receiver early there would have been several positions addressed in either the first or second round I would have been fine with. Obviously running back wasn't one of them though.

Gutekunst should have used the 2020 draft to improve the team's chances of winning the Super Bowl this season but clearly decided the future was important for some random reason.

I agree that teams need to evolve to stay ahead of the curve but a power running game isn't the way to go, especially when you have a HOF quarterback starting.

The Bucs had the highest pass vs run ratio in the league.

Get your facts straight, the Bucs ranked seventh in pass play percentage last season.

Nobody seems to talk about kneel downs. If you're going about measuring run effectiveness those plays should be thrown out altogether. Winning teams tend have more of those. By all rights defenses should be allowed to concede inside two minutes just as baseball now waves intentional walks to first base. Since I have no data on kneel downs we'll have to leave that out.

Not surprisingly the Ravens led the league in QB kneel downs with 25 last season with the Packers right behind them at 23.

Here's a link to the complete list:

https://tinyurl.com/y6vxuq7s

 

[HardRightEdge]

Not surprisingly the Ravens led the league in QB kneel downs with 25 last season with the Packers right behind them at 23.

Here's a link to the complete list:

https://tinyurl.com/y6vxuq7s

Good to know. I had not noticed "QB Kneel" as a search critieria. Updated stats for Baltimore:

440 throws + 28 sacks + 47 estimated scrambles = 515 pass plays
596 runs - 47 estimated scrambles - 25 kneel downs= 524 run plays

It's hard to make an argument for the predominance of the run game in Baltimore.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Good to know. I had not noticed "QB Kneel" as a search critieria. Updated stats for Baltimore:

440 throws + 28 sacks + 47 estimated scrambles = 515 pass plays
596 runs - 47 estimated scrambles - 25 kneel downs= 524 run plays

It's hard to make an argument for the predominance of the run game in Baltimore.

And that's with the Ravens actually being the only team you could even make an argument for them to feature a run heavy offense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And that's with the Ravens actually being the only team you could even make an argument for them to feature a run heavy offense.

Right. That's why I picked them for the drill down.

 

[Fat Dogs]

These are precisely the kind of superficial stats that result in distorted perspectives. Universally, without exception, the actual split is higher pass percentages and lower run percentages than what you show by significant margins.

Let's look at the Ravens, the most extreme case. Taking pass attempts and runs and calculating percentages as you have done leaves out some important stuff.

First, Baltimore QBs were sacked 28 times. Those are pass plays not accounted for in your percentages. That's a pretty low sack number; most if not all of the other teams you listed will have higher sack counts, more plays added to the pass column. Next, how many of the 197 Baltimore QB runs were actually pass plays that ended in scrambles?

We run into a problem with a QB such as Jackson in parsing scramble runs from called runs or option runs by the QB. In some cases, particularly RPOs, it's hard to tell whether you count the play as a called run or called pass given the option aspect. Football Outsiders illustrates the problem here where the professional play counters sometimes disagree, but at the margins:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/effect-scrambles-dvoa

In any case, for illustration purposes, lets go with PFF's take. As of December 10 last season, they came up with this:

"Jackson already has 116 designed rushes to his name, and 64.4% of his rushing yards have been on these intentional rushing plays. Scrambles make up just 35 of his rushing attempts...."

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-by-the-numbers-lamar-jackson-vs-michael-vick#:~:text=Altogether, 759 of his 1,039,(Vince Young had 46).

If we apply that 23.2% scramble percentage to his season total of 176 runs you get to something like 41 scrambles. Griffin also had 20 runs on 139 snaps, more than 2 games worth of snaps. There are surely some scrambles in there and they wouldn't be running him on purpose with Jackson's frequency. Lets throw a half dozen Griffin scrambles in there for him for good measure.

Nobody seems to talk about kneel downs. If you're going about measuring run effectiveness those plays should be thrown out altogether. Winning teams tend have more of those. By all rights defenses should be allowed to concede inside two minutes just as baseball now waves intentional walks to first base. Since I have no data on kneel downs we'll have to leave that out.

So, let's sum up Baltimore's play split:

440 throws + 28 sacks + 47 estimated scrambles = 515 pass plays
596 runs - 47 estimated scrambles = 549 run plays - ? kneel downs

So, Baltimore calls pass nearly as much as run. Throw out kneel downs and you get closer to par. I think we can say Baltimore is unique in the extent to which they call QB runs or run options, well over 100. When you start looking at other teams with higher sacks and perhaps more scrambles, the actual skew toward pass vs. conventional play counts may be even higher.

You're left with relative rankings to which I say, "so what"? What we're exploring is to what extent this is a passing league and how important RBs are to the offense. It is, indisputably, a passing league which does not mean you don't look for some balance.

We can go a step further.

Baltimore handed the ball to RBs 393 times while targetting them only 51 times, a 444 snap count where RBs are the weapon of choice. With 1,111 offensive snaps, that gets you 40% of plays with the RB as the featured weapon. Conversely, the Packer RBs ran the ball 355 times while being targetted 114 times for a total of 469 plays with the RB as the weapon of choice, many of those throws being run substitutions. On 1,078 offensive snaps, the RBs were featured on 43.5% of them.

Believe it or not, the Packers offense was more RB-centric than Baltimore's, unless you want to count Jackson as a RB . Even if you throw out snaps where a RB is in the slot or out wide, where he's best categorized as a WR on that play, I'm fairly certain you'd still find the Packers to be more RB-centric if only by a smaller margin.

I was reading the chart wrong. The falcons were the most pass heavy. Julio Jones and calvin Ridley both missed time and still had a combined 2200 yards and still missed the playoffs. I don’t know why everyone is so against being more balanced. Let’s Compare Rodgers to Jimmy G. Rodgers is a far better QB. Yet, he only managed 24 more measly yards having thrown 93 more passes. Jimmy G completed 69.1% of his passes because the Defense was forced to crowd the line. Can you imagine what Rodgers would do with those open looks? Now I suppose your going to tell me that pass completion percentage is a meaningless stat. There are 32 teams and very few are blessed with an MVP caliber QB and a pro bowl TE. 28 of these teams might as well just pack it up before camp if 16 shootouts is the game plan.

Use Baltimore as an example all you want but that is their rush preference. We drafted a running back and they choose to do it with a QB. The Ravens pass/run ratio might be skewed but that doesn’t matter. The run was still a huge part of their 14-2 season. Maybe a lot of those rushes did come from broken pass plays but that’s exactly what Jackson is. Pass play or not, he’s running if he sees open filed.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don’t know why everyone is so against being more balanced. Let’s Compare Rodgers to Jimmy G. Rodgers is a far better QB. Yet, he only managed 24 more measly yards having thrown 93 more passes. Jimmy G completed 69.1% of his passes because the Defense was forced to crowd the line. Can you imagine what Rodgers would do with those open looks?

There's not a single poster against the Packers featuring a balanced offense. The issue being your reluctance to accept the simple fact the NFL is a passing league.

Opponents won't load the box against the Packers on a regular basis because they know Rodgers can pick them apart lining up with a single high safety. That's another reason the team needed to upgrade the wide receiver position with players capable of getting open and catch contested balls.

Maybe a lot of those rushes did come from broken pass plays but that’s exactly what Jackson is. Pass play or not, he’s running if he sees open filed.

You still have to consider it was a pass play called that turned out to be a run when talking about the percentages though.

 

[Fat Dogs]

C'mon the Bucs? Winston was turning the ball over at a rate that put Favre to shame. They are a complete outlier. Much like the Ravens rushing numbers. Lamar dramatically skews them.

And you seem to be making an argument against your inital point. The mighty running teams all ran out of steam

How am I making an argument against my initial point? Did you watch the SB? The chiefs had no answer for the run. The 49ers had that game about wrapped up and then they got cute.

Winston turned the ball over because there was no threat of

There's not a single poster against the Packers featuring a balanced offense. The issue being your reluctance to accept the simple fact the NFL is a passing league.

I accept that it is a passing league and 99% of you are more than happy to remind me of that in every post. New things must be tried. The Dolphins were 1-15 but won the division the following season when they thought outside the box with the wildcat. Two TE sets weren’t always around. Coaching is a chess match. Use the leagues strength as a weakness. Let D’s get smaller and quicker and punch them in the mouth with big athletic backs.

Opponents won't load the box against the Packers on a regular basis because they know Rodgers can pick them apart lining up with a single high safety. That's another reason the team needed to upgrade the wide receiver position with players capable of getting open and catch contested balls.



You still have to consider it was a pass play called that turned out to be a run when talking about the percentages though.

I accept that it is a passing league and 99% of you are more than happy to remind me of that in every post. New things must be tried. The Dolphins were 1-15 but won the division the following season when they thought outside the box with the wildcat. Two TE sets weren’t always around. Coaching is a chess match. Use the leagues strength and turn it into a weakness. Let D’s get smaller and quicker and punch them in the mouth with big athletic backs. All teams have to have an identity. Obviously all teams pass more than they run but the teams that are know as “running teams” are such because they do it more than everyone else. I have no doubt that we are transitioning to a “running team.”


They won’t load the box until they have to. A team getting the ball run down their throat will be forced to make adjustments.
Even if the team doesn’t adjust a safety will naturally start cheating up. Any slight hesitation is all it will take To get behind him on play action.

 

[thequick12]

Aaron Jones is the better RB, correct? Dillon on the field for 15 snaps a game isn't "helping" the team next year in any material way. Please, don't try and sell me on the idea that a backup RB in the 2nd round is a major help to an already good team.

Depends what he does with those 15 snaps a game...

 

[thequick12]

Opponents won't load the box against the Packers on a regular basis because they know Rodgers can pick them apart lining up with a single high safety. That's another reason the team needed to upgrade the wide receiver position with players capable of getting open and catch contested balls.

That used to be true when the Packers had elite weapons all over the field. Nelson, Jennings, driver, Jones, Cobb, Finley. But especially last season I feel like I noticed a lot of pre snap single high looks from the opposing defense. And I didn't see Rodgers punish the defense for that philosophy very often. They need to start hitting that shot play that always went to Nelson for a TD. So far mvs has been open on it everytime but Rodgers seems to be short or just off on the throw

 

[HardRightEdge]

Use Baltimore as an example all you want but that is their rush preference.

What I posted represents their rush preference. The superficial stats are useless.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Depends what he does with those 15 snaps a game...

If it's keep Jones off the field, then he's not helping the team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Did you watch the SB? The chiefs had no answer for the run. The 49ers had that game about wrapped up and then they got cute.

The Niners running backs combined for 85 rushing yards in the Super Bowl. They led because the Chiefs couldn't figure out their defense.

I accept that it is a passing league and 99% of you are more than happy to remind me of that in every post. New things must be tried. The Dolphins were 1-15 but won the division the following season when they thought outside the box with the wildcat.

The Dolphins won the division in 2008 because their defense improve significantly, ranking ninth in points allowed a year after finishing in 30th, as well as leading the league in turnover margin. Brady missing the entire season had something to do with it as well.

Obviously all teams pass more than they run but the teams that are know as “running teams” are such because they do it more than everyone else. I have no doubt that we are transitioning to a “running team.”

Well, if teams pass the ball more often than run with it it's false to call them a running team, isn't it???

They won’t load the box until they have to. A team getting the ball run down their throat will be forced to make adjustments.

Opponents won't load the box vs. the Packers because Rodgers would take advantage of it. In addition the team's offensive line doesn't excel blocking for the run allowing defenses to put another safety deep.

That used to be true when the Packers had elite weapons all over the field. Nelson, Jennings, driver, Jones, Cobb, Finley. But especially last season I feel like I noticed a lot of pre snap single high looks from the opposing defense. And I didn't see Rodgers punish the defense for that philosophy very often. They need to start hitting that shot play that always went to Nelson for a TD. So far mvs has been open on it everytime but Rodgers seems to be short or just off on the throw

That's why I was advocating for improving the team's receiving corps this offseason. I'm quite sure MVS not running the correct route was the main reason for Rodgers being off when targeting him.

 

[Mondio]

That's why I was advocating for improving the team's receiving corps this offseason. I'm quite sure MVS not running the correct route was the main reason for Rodgers being off when targeting him.

Are you sure? What makes you think a HOF QB with a track record for intelligence and knowing what’s going on at every position on the field for over a decade, a reputation that has been reiterated by coaches, players and opponents alike, and a decade of production at the highest levels of the league is “right” in this instance?

wouldn’t it be more likely a late round draft choice that hasn’t been able to demonstrate the ability to do much else but run fast was “right”...

Pretty sure when coaches and vet players say the offense was limited, it was because of the QB, and not a late round draft pick that hasn’t done much and doesn’t run that good of routes.

 

[Fat Dogs]

The Niners running backs combined for 85 rushing yards in the Super Bowl. They led because the Chiefs couldn't figure out their defense.



The Dolphins won the division in 2008 because their defense improve significantly, ranking ninth in points allowed a year after finishing in 30th, as well as leading the league in turnover margin. Brady missing the entire season had something to do with it as well.



Well, if teams pass the ball more often than run with it it's false to call them a running team, isn't it???



Opponents won't load the box vs. the Packers because Rodgers would take advantage of it. In addition the team's offensive line doesn't excel blocking for the run allowing defenses to put another safety deep.



That's why I was advocating for improving the team's receiving corps this offseason. I'm quite sure MVS not running the correct route was the main reason for Rodgers being off when targeting him.

So we aren’t counting Deebo Samuel rushes? Maybe we should exclude RB receiving stats from the passing game. The 49ers averaged 6.4 yards per rush that game. They had a 20-10 lead with a little more than 6 min on the clock. The next 4 drives consisted of 17 plays. 4 of those plays were runs resulting in two punts, a loss of downs, and an interception. You might want to go back and watch the game instead of looking at the box score.

I sure am happy you mentioned the Defense improving. What significant defender did they have rostered that wasn’t the year before. They actually lost their leading pass rusher and team captain to a trade. The 2008 offense improved in every statistical category. These sustainable drives and extra first downs allowed the defense to rest unlike the previous season.

What kind of NFL head coach wouldn’t make in game adjustments? I think One with that kind of mentality needs to find a new career.

 

[Passepartout]

Just if there is an NFL season. Can't wait see these two team up again!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So we aren’t counting Deebo Samuel rushes? Maybe we should exclude RB receiving stats from the passing game. The 49ers averaged 6.4 yards per rush that game. They had a 20-10 lead with a little more than 6 min on the clock. The next 4 drives consisted of 17 plays. 4 of those plays were runs resulting in two punts, a loss of downs, and an interception. You might want to go back and watch the game instead of looking at the box score.

I was excluding Samuel's runs because you were suggesting the Packers to change to a power running game.

You might want to take a closer look at the boxscore when talking about the Niners play selection in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. While they led by 10 points with six minutes to go they only had three plays on offense before trailing.

I sure am happy you mentioned the Defense improving. What significant defender did they have rostered that wasn’t the year before. They actually lost their leading pass rusher and team captain to a trade. The 2008 offense improved in every statistical category. These sustainable drives and extra first downs allowed the defense to rest unlike the previous season.

The Dolphins changed their entire coaching staff for the 2008 season. While their offense improved over the previous season it definitely wasn't one of the best units in the league by any means.

What kind of NFL head coach wouldn’t make in game adjustments? I think One with that kind of mentality needs to find a new career.

Nobody suggested a head coach shouldn't make any in-game adjustments.