Busting myth Packers in 2020

[longtimefan]

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a supporting cast

Why it's wrong: So many reasons. The Packers have actually built a pretty awesome infrastructure around Rodgers. Adams and Jones,
The Packers' offensive line ranks first in pass block win rate and run block win rate.
Rodgers' receivers lead the league in average yards of separation and average maximum speed on catches. Second-year head coach and playcaller Matt LaFleur is helping Rodgers with schemes that rely heavily on pre-snap motion and play-action. Green Bay is running play-action on 32% of its plays -- the highest such figure in Rodgers' career.


If you want to say Rodgers is having a better year than Mahomes, fine. But the idea that he's carrying the Packers by himself just isn't supported by facts.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/st...-josh-allen-new-strength-how-dangerous-ravens

 

[El Guapo]

Agreed. Teams are talking about the pairing of Adams and Tonyan with Lazard and MVS being a scary opponent, especially when you factor in the RBs. People just like to ***** about not spending first round picks on WRs, but I bet that Rodgers is happy with what he's got.

On a related note, Rodgers is still pushing the far boundary in terms of age. When it is Love's turn he should still have a good supporting cast around him for the transition.

 

[Dantés]

I so strongly agree.

Draft day, 2020 gave birth to a narrative that Rodgers doesn't have any weapons and doesn't have a supporting cast.

Because of that narrative, people have been so prone to ignore:

1. Schematics and playcalling as good or better than anyone else in the league.

2. One of the best offensive lines in the league.

3. A great backfield, both in terms of rushing offense, receiving production, and pass pro.

Rodgers is amazing. He's had an elite season. He deserves the MVP and every bit of credit he's receiving. But the FO has absolutely built some great support around him.

 

[PackinMSP]

I mean... if Justin Jefferson was there at the Love pick, I think he's a Packer honestly lol

 

[XPack]

Because of that narrative, people have been so prone to ignore:

1. Schematics and playcalling as good or better than anyone else in the league.

2. One of the best offensive lines in the league.

I'd argue the other way around.

Because of the above two,even underpar supporting cast looks much better.

He has 2 weapons in Aaron Jones and Davante Adams plus a good depth player in Jamaal Williams and that's it. Depth in WR after Adams has been very iffy between MvS's inconsistency and Lazard's injury. The playcalling and scheming were that good that we rolled on even without Adams for couple of games!

Tonyan has been awesome in TD's but in as a pure receiving choice (overall yards), he still needs to improve much.

 

[Dantés]

I'd argue the other way around.

Because of the above two,even underpar supporting cast looks much better.

He has 2 weapons in Aaron Jones and Davante Adams plus a good depth player in Jamaal Williams and that's it. Depth in WR after Adams has been very iffy between MvS's inconsistency and Lazard's injury. The playcalling and scheming were that good that we rolled on even without Adams for couple of games!

Tonyan has been awesome in TD's but in as a pure receiving choice (overall yards), he still needs to improve much.

You're kind of making my point here, by focusing on the wide receivers and not considering the OL/Scheme as part of the supporting structure around Rodgers.

The OL and the coaching are part of the supporting cast.

They are, in fact, far more important supporting cast members than a WR2 or WR3.

And while I would not want to make more of them than what they are, Tonyan, Lazard, and MVS are all very useful players.

-Tonyan has 20 targets on 3rd/4th down this season, resulting in 3 touchdowns and 12 first downs.

-Lazard has 12 targets on 3rd/4th down this season, resulting in 10 first downs.

-Valdes-Scantling leads the league in yards per reception and air yards per target; he has legitimate flaws in his game, but he has kept opposing defenses from condensing towards the LOS and gumming of the offense.

 

[Don Barclay]

Tonyan has been awesome in TD's but in as a pure receiving choice (overall yards), he still needs to improve much.

I disagree so strongly with this take. This year Tonyan's catch rate, touchdowns, DVOA (efficiency metric) and DYAR (cumulative metric) are ALL in the top 3 in the NFL for 2020, without a single fumble. Yeah, he's a relatively low-volume target, and yeah, he has a QB who puts the ball on the money -- but I don't think you can look at what he's done this year and say there's anywhere he "needs to improve much" as far as what he's bringing to the table.

if you're criticizing the low volume of targets, I guess I disagree as well, but that's more an opinion-based view of LaFleur's and Rodgers' plan for the offense. And I'm pretty satisfied with the 2020 offense.

 

[tynimiller]

I disagree so strongly with this take. This year Tonyan's catch rate, touchdowns, DVOA (efficiency metric) and DYAR (cumulative metric) are ALL in the top 3 in the NFL for 2020, without a single fumble. Yeah, he's a relatively low-volume target, and yeah, he has a QB who puts the ball on the money -- but I don't think you can look at what he's done this year and say there's anywhere he "needs to improve much" as far as what he's bringing to the table.

if you're criticizing the low volume of targets, I guess I disagree as well, but that's more an opinion-based view of LaFleur's and Rodgers' plan for the offense. And I'm pretty satisfied with the 2020 offense.

Excellently put. So many folks just don't go beyond what few snaps they see or plays they remember. Zero analysis and zero takes...just speculative opinions based on nothing.

 

[El Guapo]

I'll just say simply, that Tonyan is progressing very well for a guy with one game started each of the last two seasons. At 52 receptions that is pretty darn good for a TE. His catch percentage at 88.1% is better than Devante Adam's rate of 77.2%. He is an ascending player with a lot of tread remaining on the tires.

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[Fredrik87]

So Rodgers does have a supporting cast to say otherwise would be nuts but I'm not about to say his WR's outside of Adams are good or that we couldn't of had a draft that would have been much more impact full then the one we did have, another WR not necessarily a 1st round one would have been helpful, Rodgers had when I last checked prior to this last game the highest % of passes dropped in the league.

Even if it was just a depth piece that also served as a special teamer like say a James Proche it would have been a good addition.

Just because we are good without adding anyone doesn't mean we couldn't have been better if we had made additions especially seeing as several WR's in this draft class have already made major impacts for their teams.


Also as far as Mahomes vs Rodgers this shouldn't even be a argument Mahomes shouldn't even get a vote Rodgers is better in every category sans total yards and even in yards he averages more per attempt.

Not to mention just how much Luckier Mahomes has been he's had 16 ints dropped this season the most ever in a single season.

And this doesn't balance out with Rodgers having dropped INT's himself either in the below tweet are the % of times that a turnover worthy play actually turn into a turnover for Mahomes and Rogers

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It's a pretty considerable difference.

Factoring that and Rodgers leading in just about every significant passing statistic I don't see how you could justify giving the MVP to anyone else this year.

 

[Poppa San]

Even if it was just a depth piece that also served as a special teamer like say a James Proche it would have been a good addition.

Our potential depth receiver sat out with a Covid pass.

 

[longtimefan]

This isn’t just about the draft or we it is about coaching as well

 

[Fat Dogs]

Agreed. Teams are talking about the pairing of Adams and Tonyan with Lazard and MVS being a scary opponent, especially when you factor in the RBs. People just like to ***** about not spending first round picks on WRs, but I bet that Rodgers is happy with what he's got.

On a related note, Rodgers is still pushing the far boundary in terms of age. When it is Love's turn he should still have a good supporting cast around him for the transition.

[[[100% agree. It’s hard to be one dimensional and win games. Having a good running game greatly increases your odds of success. We could have passed over Dillon and drafted a receiver opposite Adams but look at some of the best WR tandems in the league.

Evans/Godwin (Bucs 7-9) No playoffs

Beckham/Landry (6-10) no playoffs

Allen/Williams (Chargers 5-11) no playoffs

Jones/Ridley (7-9) no playoffs

The packers need to run. We were the second most pass happy team in the league last year. We only ran the ball 34.2% of the time and went 6-9-1. MLF put more focus on the running game in 2019 and we went 13-3. These are 2019’s run/pass percentages and rankings. As you can see, the leagues 5 most balanced offenses all made the playoffs.

......................run/pass

#1 Ravens...57.5%....42.5%
#2. 49ers.....51%.......49%
#3. Vikings...50.5%....49.5%
#4. Titans.....49.8%...50.2%
#5. Seahawks.48.2%..51.8%
#6. (Non playoff Colts went 7-9)
#7. Bills........47.5%....52.5%
#8. (Non playoff Raiders went 7-9)
#9. Texans 44.8%.......55.2%

now here’s where it drops.

#14 Eagles
#17 Patriots
#18 Packers
#21 Saints
#24 Chiefs

The Eagles two leading reception leaders were both tight ends (Ertz 88) And (Goedert 58.) their 3rd leading receiver was a RB (Sanders 50)

The patriots were led by (Edelman 100) and a RB (White 72)

we all know the packers situation.

The saints had Michael Thomas (149) but their next two receivers were a RB and a TE (Kamara 81) (Cook 43)

The Chiefs were the most pass happy of all the playoff teams but they were lead by a TE (Kelce 97)

My point is that 8 out of the 12 playoff teams were In the top half of the league in the percentage in which they ran the ball. Some would have you believe that the NFL is a passing league and the packers need to draft WR’s high and pass pass pass to be successful but that’s simply not the case. The goal is to invest in the run game and use play action to create mismatches for our RB’s and TE’s. IMO the Packers are building the right way (except for Love.) still hate that pick]]]




I wrote this in another thread after the draft and You guys are right. The coaching and scheming this year goes way beyond any of our expectations. MLF’s vision of his offense came into full fruition in year 2. The FO can now add pieces and we will be contenders for the next 5 years.

 

[Dantés]

So Rodgers does have a supporting cast to say otherwise would be nuts but I'm not about to say his WR's outside of Adams are good or that we couldn't of had a draft that would have been much more impact full then the one we did have, another WR not necessarily a 1st round one would have been helpful, Rodgers had when I last checked prior to this last game the highest % of passes dropped in the league.

Even if it was just a depth piece that also served as a special teamer like say a James Proche it would have been a good addition.

Just because we are good without adding anyone doesn't mean we couldn't have been better if we had made additions especially seeing as several WR's in this draft class have already made major impacts for their teams.

Also as far as Mahomes vs Rodgers this shouldn't even be a argument Mahomes shouldn't even get a vote Rodgers is better in every category sans total yards and even in yards he averages more per attempt.

Not to mention just how much Luckier Mahomes has been he's had 16 ints dropped this season the most ever in a single season.

And this doesn't balance out with Rodgers having dropped INT's himself either in the below tweet are the % of times that a turnover worthy play actually turn into a turnover for Mahomes and Rogers

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

It's a pretty considerable difference.

Factoring that and Rodgers leading in just about every significant passing statistic I don't see how you could justify giving the MVP to anyone else this year.

See, compared to the crazy takes like "it's all Rodgers and he has no help" or "we could cut MVS tomorrow and it wouldn't matter," I read this and basically nod along with all of it.

According to pro football reference, the Packers are 3rd (in a bad way) in drop % at 6.4%, while being 1st in "On Target" Throw % and 32nd in Bad Throw %.

So they aren't last, but they're close.

As an aside, I noticed while I was looking that up that the Packers are 1st in yards after catch per completion. That, to me, is such an amazing testament to Rodgers' placement and LaFleur's schematics, because they really don't have top end YAC options on the roster.

 

[Dantés]

Okay, here's something that's bizarre to me and I am wondering if anyone else feels the same way.

The Packers led the league in both points per game and points per drive. And they only got 14 points all season from something other than offense.

Their points per drive, 3.08, over the last TEN YEARS (and more, I'm sure-- I didn't go any further back) is 2nd only to the 2018 chiefs (3.12 ppd).

They have literally, without any exaggeration whatsoever, been a historically effective and efficient offense. It is just plain factual to say that we just witnessed one of the best offenses in NFL history.

And yet at least half of the analysis that I hear/read from 3rd parties (i.e. not Packer fans or Packer specific coverage) focuses on their occasional offensive lulls and that they don't often beat teams by 3+ scores.

That's insane. As it turns out, scoring in the NFL is kind of hard! Other teams, believe it or not, try to stop you.

So watching one of the best offenses of all time and coming away with the take of "should be better" is pretty stupid.

It's as though someone watched the 1985 Bears play their full season and their main takeaway was "man-- they gave up a lot of points to Miami in week 13!"

 

[El Guapo]

IMO the Packers are building the right way (except for Love.) still hate that pick

I still like the Love pick. Favre had arguably his best season in 2009, playing for spite. His career ended in 2010. Rodgers had arguably his best season in 2020 also playing for spite. The Packers were 100% right to get the next QB in the door so that we aren't in the same spot as the 2020 Patriots. It wasn't ****, it didn't help this year, but if Love is what they think he is then it was absolutely the right move.

Rodgers might be just like an old carbureted boat motor about to run out of gas. Less fuel and higher air is creating a lean mixture that is revving higher at the end before flaming out! I hope that is wrong, but Rodgers' age and less-than-stellar past seasons led them to draft Love. As they always say, it's better to shed a player a year early than a year later. People moaned about Jordy, but that was also the right move. GMs need to act without the emotion that the rest of us can't separate from our love of the game.

 

[El Guapo]

They have literally, without any exaggeration whatsoever, been a historically effective and efficient offense. It is just plain factual to say that we just witnessed one of the best offenses in NFL history.

I think that they were afraid to keep putting the game in the hands of our special teams! They couldn't bear to watch JK Scott make another tackle.... Now saying that, did anyone notice that he stuck his head in there against the Bears and got the runner down?

It's as though someone watched the 1985 Bears play their full season and their main takeaway was "man-- they gave up a lot of points to Miami in week 13!"

They did give up too many points to Marino! But you are absolutely right, a lot of folks not seeing the forest through the trees.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I still like the Love pick. Favre had arguably his best season in 2009, playing for spite. His career ended in 2010. Rodgers had arguably his best season in 2020 also playing for spite. The Packers were 100% right to get the next QB in the door so that we aren't in the same spot as the 2020 Patriots. It wasn't ****, it didn't help this year, but if Love is what they think he is then it was absolutely the right move.

Rodgers might be just like an old carbureted boat motor about to run out of gas. Less fuel and higher air is creating a lean mixture that is revving higher at the end before flaming out! I hope that is wrong, but Rodgers' age and less-than-stellar past seasons led them to draft Love. As they always say, it's better to shed a player a year early than a year later. People moaned about Jordy, but that was also the right move. GMs need to act without the emotion that the rest of us can't separate from our love of the game.

I wish Love was another Rodgers. Aaron was a coin toss to go as the #1 pick that slid. I won’t get into my opinion on Love because I wrote enough negative stuff immediately following the draft. All Packer fans need to know is that our first round pick didn’t suit up once. Meanwhile, Tim Boyle suited up every game and got snaps....

 

[Dantés]

I wish Love was another Rodgers. Aaron was a coin toss to go as the #1 pick that slid. I won’t get into my opinion on Love because I wrote enough negative stuff immediately following the draft. All Packer fans need to know is that our first round pick didn’t suit up once. Meanwhile, Tim Boyle suited up every game and got snaps....

All Packer fans need to know is that they don't know anything about how their first round pick will do in the NFL yet, and neither does anyone else.

 

[Fat Dogs]

All Packer fans need to know is that they don't know anything about how their first round pick will do in the NFL yet, and neither does anyone else.

ok but I think you can admit that it is a pretty unique situation. Right? Has this ever happened in the history of the NFL (not counting injury?) you’d think a sneak peak at the end of a blow out or insurance for a bad situation? Didn’t even suit up. Hmmm..

 

[Dantés]

ok but I think you can admit that it is a pretty unique situation. Right? Has this ever happened in the history of the NFL (not counting injury?) you’d think a sneak peak at the end of a blow out or insurance for a bad situation? Didn’t even suit up. Hmmm..

I have no idea.

 

[sschind]

ok but I think you can admit that it is a pretty unique situation. Right? Has this ever happened in the history of the NFL (not counting injury?) you’d think a sneak peak at the end of a blow out or insurance for a bad situation? Didn’t even suit up. Hmmm..

I wish Love was another Rodgers. Aaron was a coin toss to go as the #1 pick that slid. I won’t get into my opinion on Love because I wrote enough negative stuff immediately following the draft. All Packer fans need to know is that our first round pick didn’t suit up once. Meanwhile, Tim Boyle suited up every game and got snaps....

They obviously didn't draft Love for this season, or probably even next, so I don't really see what the big deal is that he wasn't active at all. Boyle played in 8 games and either handed the ball off or took a knee. I don't really consider them valuable snaps. It's not like 33 snaps, 13 carries for -9 yards and no passing attempts was going to prepare Love for next season and beyond. With no plans to take Rodgers out in anything except last drive mop up situations it clear it really didn't matter who our backup was. He probably learned just as much if not more as the third string inactive running the scout team as he would have as the backup. Now if I were a Bengals , Dolphins or Chargers fan and my first round QB was inactive all season I might find that a bit disconcerting, but as packer fan Love's inactive status all season does not bother me in the least. Besides that, had Rodgers been lost for 4 or 5 weeks I'm convinced, that while Boyle may have started a game or two, Love would have been the starter eventually. That is unless Boyle was winning of course.

 

[Fat Dogs]

They obviously didn't draft Love for this season, or probably even next, so I don't really see what the big deal is that he wasn't active at all. Boyle played in 8 games and either handed the ball off or took a knee. I don't really consider them valuable snaps. It's not like 33 snaps, 13 carries for -9 yards and no passing attempts was going to prepare Love for next season and beyond. With no plans to take Rodgers out in anything except last drive mop up situations it clear it really didn't matter who our backup was. He probably learned just as much if not more as the third string inactive running the scout team as he would have as the backup. Now if I were a Bengals , Dolphins or Chargers fan and my first round QB was inactive all season I might find that a bit disconcerting, but as packer fan Love's inactive status all season does not bother me in the least. Besides that, had Rodgers been lost for 4 or 5 weeks I'm convinced, that while Boyle may have started a game or two, Love would have been the starter eventually. That is unless Boyle was winning of course.

I don’t know. I think any snap in a live game for a rookie is a valuable learning experience. This year had extenuating circumstances so no pre-season helps your case but next year? I would be really concerned if he didn’t suit up next year in lieu of Tim Boyle.

 

[PikeBadger]

ok but I think you can admit that it is a pretty unique situation. Right? Has this ever happened in the history of the NFL (not counting injury?) you’d think a sneak peak at the end of a blow out or insurance for a bad situation? Didn’t even suit up. Hmmm..

Larry Bird........ oops that was NBA.

Roger Staubach.

 

[mradtke66]

Larry Bird........ oops that was NBA.

Roger Staubach.

also Carson Palmer if I recall correctly.