Brian Gutekunst new Packers GM

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think his name does just fine for me. It's like Gooood and then you can add in a, ahKuuuuhhhhhnnnnnst. he has a name that doesn't need to be changed, it works in a stadium filled with football fans.

I thought the same, but then again.....when did you ever hear Wolf or TT's name chanted in a stadium? Although I did hear a lot of F bombs connect to TT's name in private conversations the last couple of years.

 

[DarkHelmet]

Yup.....and it will come with either renegotiating contracts or cutting players who currently may be making more than they should.

Top 4 on such list might be:

1. Matthews
2. Cobb
3. Nelson
4. Bulaga

With Hundley throwing the ball there is no way to know whether Cobb and Nelson can still play at a high level. In the Panthers game Rodgers missed a TD to Nelson because he wasn't really ready to come back.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It occurred to me just this moment that there is one way to get a glimpse into Gutekunst's scouting ability.

According the packers.com bio, he was the lead Southeast region scout for 11 years prior to the last two years as Director of Player Personnel and the 4 years prior to that as director of college scouting.

So, why don't we look at the Packer players coming out of the Southeast over the period 2001 - 2011. Why not, indeed. At this moment I have no preconceived notions. I'm working this up as I go along.

Now, before we start, I must issue a disclaimer. I don't know precisely how the Southeast region is circumscribed. As best I can tell, the country is divided into 4 regions: Southeast, Southwest, West, and North (or Northeast), but I do not see a named scout for most regions at Packers.com. For the sake of this discussion, I'll define the Southeast as east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon line.

A first note on UDFAs:

The history of UDFA signings is hard to track, but the biggest wins that jump out of my memory are Tramon Williams (2006) and Sam Shields (2010), the former out of Louisiana Tech and latter out of Miami (FL), squarely in the Southeast. While Williams initially signed with Houston, he was released at final cut downs and picked up by the Packers that November. That pickup surely would have had some college scouting input. I think we can say these are instances of 5 star scouting out of Gutekunst's region. If anybody recalls any other notable UDFA instances out of the Southeast during the period in question, feel free to comment (as if that needs to be said ).

On to the drafts. Here's the raw list:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

Here's what I come up with for picks out of what might reasonably be thought of as "Southeast" for the period in question:

2011:

Round 1: Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.
Round 2: Randall Cobb, Kentucky
Round 6: D.J Smith, Appalachian St.
Round 7: Ryan Taylor, North Carolina

2010:

Round 3: Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech
Round 7: C.J. Wilson, East Carolina

2009:

Round 5: Quinn Johnson, LSU
Round 5: Jamon Meredith, South Carolina
Round 6: Jarius Wynn, Georgia

2008:

Round 2: Brian Brohm, Louisville
Round 2: Pat Lee, Auburn
Round 4: Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest
Round 5: Josh Sitton, Central Florida
Round 5: Breno Giacomini, Louisville
Round 7: Matt Flynn, LSU

2007:

Round 1: Justin Harrell, Tennessee
Round 3: Aaron Rouse, Virginia Tech
Round 5: David Clowney, Virginia Tech
Round 7: DeShawn Wynn, Florida

2006:

Round 3: Jason Spitz, Louisville
Round 5: Ingle Martin, Furman

2005:

Round 2: Nick Collins, Bethune-Cookman
Round 5: Junius Coston, North Carolina A&T

2004:

Round 3: Donnell Washington, Clemson
Round 7: Scott Wells, Tennessee

2003:

Round 5: Hunter Hillenmeyer, Vanderbilt
Round 7: Chris Johnson, Louisville
Round 7: DeAndrew Rubin, South Florida
Round 7: Steve Josue, Carson-Newman

2002:

Round 1: Javon Walker, Florida St.
Round 4: Najeh Davenport, Miami (FL)
Round 5: Craig Nall, LSU

2001:

Round 1: Jamall Reynolds, Florida St.
Round 6: David Martin, Tennessee

Now, we don't know what other players Gutekunst might banged the table for that were not picked, we don't know which of these picks where he might have been lukewarm and they were picked anyway, and we've got a couple of #1 picks who suffered early injuries casting in doubt how they might have developed. That said, I have a couple of takeaways:

There's a lot of outstanding O-Line value in the mid-rounds and the Collins/Burnett/Shields/Williams D-backfied in the 2005-2010 period would be hard to top.

Otherwise, on balance, the overall record is pretty good but it does not say "super scout" to me.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

With Hundley throwing the ball there is no way to know whether Cobb and Nelson can still play at a high level. In the Panthers game Rodgers missed a TD to Nelson because he wasn't really ready to come back.

I hear you, I am not one who is basing Cobb or Jordy's values on what they did or didn't do with Hundley. I don't think the Packers will either. What they will have to look at with both guys is the fact that they are in the last year of a contract that seems to be overpaying them. With Jordy, it's all about his age and possibly a decline in productivity. With Cobb, it's more of, do we need him for one more year and beyond and how much is that worth?

Cutting either one or both may look like the prudent thing to do money wise, but in doing so, what have you just done to the offense and its production? I still can't picture the Packer offense next year fielding a roster of Adams, Allison, Davis, Janis, Rookie A and Rookie B at WR's.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

on balance, this does not say "super scout".

Geez......thanks for ruining my day, I almost lost my lunch when I went through that list!

 

[SoonerPack]

As I've posted several times in the past and supported it with numbers the media has significantly exaggerated about Brady taking a discount with the Patriots as he has earned more money in total compared to Rodgers over the past few years.

His number vs the cap has been lower than it could've been thought, no?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Geez......thanks for ruining my day, I almost lost my lunch when I went through that list!

I had no visceral reaction to my findings. Ted Thompson's mediocre performance since 2010 has made me dead inside...err, I mean, circumspect.

Still and all, having watched all of the playoff teams at one time or another during the season and most of the playoff minutes to date, I still believe with Rodgers and somewhat fewer lost snaps to injuries, this team would have had a shot, especially after Wentz went down. Philly was the only team that looked particularly strong and balanced to me; losing Wentz of course changed that picture. Atlanta would have been a challenge, but they would have been getable on a good day.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Hopefully BG has learned from his own mistakes as well as TT's While I would agree, that the Packers weren't that far from being in the Playoffs once again, I think too many teams are now better than the Packers. IMO the shake up in the front office and coaching staff are probably what was needed to improve past being a team that just has one hell of a good QB.

Will what happened in Green Bay be remembered as "The Anthony Barr Rule"? Good or Bad? Time will tell.

 

[PackAttack12]

I had no visceral reaction to my findings. Ted Thompson's mediocre performance since 2010 has made me dead inside...err, I mean, circumspect.

Still and all, having watched all of the playoff teams at one time or another during the season and most of the playoff minutes to date, I still believe with Rodgers and somewhat fewer lost snaps to injuries, this team would have had a shot, especially after Wentz went down. Philly was the only team that looked particularly strong and balanced to me; losing Wentz of course changed that picture. Atlanta would have been a challenge, but they would have been getable on a good day.

Also, there's no guarantee Atlanta would have finished ahead of Green Bay in the standings. Getting them on the road is a much more doable, favorable situation, than playing them in Atlanta. Which I now view as our house of horror.

 

[PackAttack12]

Hopefully BG has learned from his own mistakes as well as TT's While I would agree, that the Packers weren't that far from being in the Playoffs once again, I think too many teams are now better than the Packers. IMO the shake up in the front office and coaching staff are probably what was needed to improve past being a team that just has one hell of a good QB.

Will what happened in Green Bay be remembered as "The Anthony Barr Rule"? Good or Bad? Time will tell.

Like I stated in the thread I posted a week or two ago, the Barr hit will end up doing more for the Packers in the long run than what he took away in the short term, as difficult as it is for some to wrap their head around initially (including me).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Also, there's no guarantee Atlanta would have finished ahead of Green Bay in the standings. Getting them on the road is a much more doable, favorable situation, than playing them in Atlanta. Which I now view as our house of horror.

After watching Atlanta @ Carolina yesterday, I can't help but think that their speed on defense and their tandem of Ryan-Jones-Sanu wouldn't have shredded the Packers once again this year.....in Atlanta or Green Bay.

 

[PackAttack12]

After watching Atlanta @ Carolina yesterday, I can't help but think that their speed on defense and their tandem of Ryan-Jones-Sanu wouldn't have shredded the Packers once again this year.....in Atlanta or Green Bay.

You're probably right, but I think that their speed would have been neutralized to a degree, having to play the Packers on a turf-less field. Would have been a much more respectable fight.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Like I stated in the thread I posted a week or two ago, the Barr hit will end up doing more for the Packers in the long run than what he took away in the short term, as difficult as it is for some to wrap their head around initially (including me).

Agreed, I think many of us saw it coming even before Rodgers went down. Maybe not quite as bad as it ended up being, but knowing full well that #12 was the pulse of this team.

Did the Packers over react to one injury? I don't think so. I think once the smoke cleared, it became pretty obvious change was needed. Now had the injury not happened or Rodgers come back somehow got us into the playoffs, would all of the changes have happened? I would hope so, but probably not to this magnitude.

I can't remember which talking head was rambling on about the Cowboys (loss of Zeke) and the Packers (loss or Rodgers) and how both teams were totally over reacting, but they obviously haven't been that in tune to the Packers before and after #12 went down.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You're probably right, but I think that their speed would have been neutralized to a degree, having to play the Packers on a turf-less field. Would have been a much more respectable fight.

You are probably correct, had the Packers been playing the Falcons in Green Bay this past weekend, it would have definitely leveled the playing field a bit, but I still think the Falcons are the better team by a wide margin.

It is funny, in the last 14 years, we have played the Falcons 11 times....only 4 of those games being in GB. Packers are 5-6 during that stretch and 2-2 at home.

 

[Ogsponge]

As I've posted several times in the past and supported it with numbers the media has significantly exaggerated about Brady taking a discount with the Patriots as he has earned more money in total compared to Rodgers over the past few years.

This what the packers are going to need to do with Rodgers, there is going to have to be a rather large signing bonus that is prorated over the next 5 years, with smaller base salary numbers the next couple years. They may have to do something crazy with signing bonus, I mean something like 60 million...

 

[HardRightEdge]

Agreed, I think many of us saw it coming even before Rodgers went down. Maybe not quite as bad as it ended up being, but knowing full well that #12 was the pulse of this team.

Did the Packers over react to one injury? I don't think so. I think once the smoke cleared, it became pretty obvious change was needed. Now had the injury not happened or Rodgers come back somehow got us into the playoffs, would all of the changes have happened? I would hope so, but probably not to this magnitude.

I can't remember which talking head was rambling on about the Cowboys (loss of Zeke) and the Packers (loss or Rodgers) and how both teams were totally over reacting, but they obviously haven't been that in tune to the Packers before and after #12 went down.

Your imbedded assumption, one that is common in these pages, is that Gutekunst is going to be a change agent taking the Packers on some new course.

Why assume that? He's an internal promotion. He has not done anything yet to signal any particular direction.

Did it occur to anybody that this change is not an indictment of the "Thompson approach", but rather an assessment of his health, or a perception of the beginning of a slide into non compos mentis?

 

[swhitset]

Your imbedded assumption, one that is common in these pages, is that Gutekunst is going to be a change agent taking the Packers on some new course.

Why assume that? He's an internal promotion. He has not done anything yet to signal any particular direction.

Did it occur to anybody that this change is not an indictment of the "Thompson approach", but rather an assessment of his health, or a perception of the beginning of a slide into non compos mentis?

I thnk that is the elephant in the room that most of us are trying to ignore lol....thanks for sobering us up ....

 

[PFanCan]

Your imbedded assumption, one that is common in these pages, is that Gutekunst is going to be a change agent taking the Packers on some new course.

Why assume that? He's an internal promotion. He has not done anything yet to signal any particular direction.

Did it occur to anybody that this change is not an indictment of the "Thompson approach", but rather an assessment of his health, or a perception of the beginning of a slide into non compos mentis?

+1 for using "non compos mentis" in a sentence.

 

[swhitset]

Your imbedded assumption, one that is common in these pages, is that Gutekunst is going to be a change agent taking the Packers on some new course.

Why assume that? He's an internal promotion. He has not done anything yet to signal any particular direction.

Did it occur to anybody that this change is not an indictment of the "Thompson approach", but rather an assessment of his health, or a perception of the beginning of a slide into non compos mentis?

At least he is saying the right things.... In his interview today, he said he will still build through the draft, but that he intends to take a more aggressive approach regarding free agency.

 

[PackAttack12]

At least he is saying the right things.... In his interview today, he said he will still build through the draft, but that he intends to take a more aggressive approach regarding free agency.

Holy buttered biscuit I think I could turn backflips naked in the street right now I'm so happy.

Go Pack Go!

 

[brandon2348]

He doesn't need to go crazy in free agency. He just needs to make a few really good moves and draft well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

None of us know whether this "change" will be a success or a failure, but I think many of us were just ready for a change. Personally, I was ready for a change on defense over a year ago. I was also ready for a change in TT's penchant for over relying on the draft and development model of success, too often leaving his roster too shallow in experience. TT actually appeared to have deviated from his norm this past year by signing quite a few FA's.

Right now, I am a lot more optimistic about the Packers than I was a year ago. But ask me again in a year, I reserve the right to change my optimism as frequently as I change my furnace filter.

 

[Dantés]

Your imbedded assumption, one that is common in these pages, is that Gutekunst is going to be a change agent taking the Packers on some new course.

Why assume that? He's an internal promotion. He has not done anything yet to signal any particular direction.

Did it occur to anybody that this change is not an indictment of the "Thompson approach", but rather an assessment of his health, or a perception of the beginning of a slide into non compos mentis?

Why wouldn't people assume that there would be a change?

They're different people, Gutekunst is already expressly saying that there will be a change, and all of the reporters are indicating that their sources are saying as much.

Thompson was a Wolf disciple and yet operated very differently. These guys aren't robots.

 

[swhitset]

None of us know whether this "change" will be a success or a failure, but I think many of us were just ready for a change. Personally, I was ready for a change on defense over a year ago. I was also ready for a change in TT's penchant for over relying on the draft and development model of success, too often leaving his roster too shallow in experience. TT actually appeared to have deviated from his norm this past year by signing quite a few FA's.

Right now, I am a lot more optimistic about the Packers than I was a year ago. But ask me again in a year, I reserve the right to change my optimism as frequently as I change my furnace filter.

Well at least we know you are breathing clean air.

 

[AmishMafia]

It occurred to me just this moment that there is one way to get a glimpse into Gutekunst's scouting ability.

According the packers.com bio, he was the lead Southeast region scout for 11 years prior to the last two years as Director of Player Personnel and the 4 years prior to that as director of college scouting.

So, why don't we look at the Packer players coming out of the Southeast over the period 2001 - 2011. Why not, indeed. At this moment I have no preconceived notions. I'm working this up as I go along.

Now, before we start, I must issue a disclaimer. I don't know precisely how the Southeast region is circumscribed. As best I can tell, the country is divided into 4 regions: Southeast, Southwest, West, and North (or Northeast), but I do not see a named scout for most regions at Packers.com. For the sake of this discussion, I'll define the Southeast as east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon line.

A first note on UDFAs:

The history of UDFA signings is hard to track, but the biggest wins that jump out of my memory are Tramon Williams (2006) and Sam Shields (2010), the former out of Louisiana Tech and latter out of Miami (FL), squarely in the Southeast. While Williams initially signed with Houston, he was released at final cut downs and picked up by the Packers that November. That pickup surely would have had some college scouting input. I think we can say these are instances of 5 star scouting out of Gutekunst's region. If anybody recalls any other notable UDFA instances out of the Southeast during the period in question, feel free to comment (as if that needs to be said ).

On to the drafts. Here's the raw list:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

Here's what I come up with for picks out of what might reasonably be thought of as "Southeast" for the period in question:

2011:

Round 1: Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.
Round 2: Randall Cobb, Kentucky
Round 6: D.J Smith, Appalachian St.
Round 7: Ryan Taylor, North Carolina

2010:

Round 3: Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech
Round 7: C.J. Wilson, East Carolina

2009:

Round 5: Quinn Johnson, LSU
Round 5: Jamon Meredith, South Carolina
Round 6: Jarius Wynn, Georgia

2008:

Round 2: Brian Brohm, Louisville
Round 2: Pat Lee, Auburn
Round 4: Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest
Round 5: Josh Sitton, Central Florida
Round 5: Breno Giacomini, Louisville
Round 7: Matt Flynn, LSU

2007:

Round 1: Justin Harrell, Tennessee
Round 3: Aaron Rouse, Virginia Tech
Round 5: David Clowney, Virginia Tech
Round 7: DeShawn Wynn, Florida

2006:

Round 3: Jason Spitz, Louisville
Round 5: Ingle Martin, Furman

2005:

Round 2: Nick Collins, Bethune-Cookman
Round 5: Junius Coston, North Carolina A&T

2004:

Round 3: Donnell Washington, Clemson
Round 7: Scott Wells, Tennessee

2003:

Round 5: Hunter Hillenmeyer, Vanderbilt
Round 7: Chris Johnson, Louisville
Round 7: DeAndrew Rubin, South Florida
Round 7: Steve Josue, Carson-Newman

2002:

Round 1: Javon Walker, Florida St.
Round 4: Najeh Davenport, Miami (FL)
Round 5: Craig Nall, LSU

2001:

Round 1: Jamall Reynolds, Florida St.
Round 6: David Martin, Tennessee

Now, we don't know what other players Gutekunst might banged the table for that were not picked, we don't know which of these picks where he might have been lukewarm and they were picked anyway, and we've got a couple of #1 picks who suffered early injuries casting in doubt how they might have developed. That said, I have a couple of takeaways:

There's a lot of outstanding O-Line value in the mid-rounds and the Collins/Burnett/Shields/Williams D-backfied in the 2005-2010 period would be hard to top.

Otherwise, on balance, the overall record is pretty good but it does not say "super scout" to me.

Your analysis assumes that an area scout is entirely responsible for a player's grade. I don't believe that to be true. Many are responsible for the grade.