Brian Gutekunst new Packers GM

[HardRightEdge]

Your analysis assumes that an area scout is entirely responsible for a player's grade. I don't believe that to be true. Many are responsible for the grade.

Actually, I did not assume that at all if you'd bother to read all the way to the bottom. Or if you read the opening where I described it as a "glimpse".

But it also begs the question, what evidence do you have the contrary? If you're right, I'd have to subtract a 5 start scouting effort from Gutekunst's record.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Why wouldn't people assume that there would be a change?

They're different people, Gutekunst is already expressly saying that there will be a change, and all of the reporters are indicating that their sources are saying as much.

Thompson was a Wolf disciple and yet operated very differently. These guys aren't robots.

I expect change. It is unavoidable. Even Thompson changed himself last season with a dive into free agency. But "change" does not mean "change of approach". There's no evidence yet that the magnitude many here seem to assume will actually transpire.

 

[TJackattack]

a lot remains to be seen. so i'm in that camp too. at least i have a positive attitude right now. i'm normally a glass is half full kind of guy about life. lately in sports though that's taken a hard hit. lol

Agreed. Just a man who interviewed well for a job and was hired at this point to me....Time will tell. Not gonna get too excited yet.

 

[gbgary]

wonder if Gute will make Rodgers the first to get a completely guaranteed multi-year contract? 5-$140-$145m. hell of a can of worms to open. would that kill the cap?

 

[HardRightEdge]

At least he is saying the right things.... In his interview today, he said he will still build through the draft, but that he intends to take a more aggressive approach regarding free agency.

We'll see.

 

[HardRightEdge]

+1 for using "non compos mentis" in a sentence.

I was trying to be subtle .

 

[Poppa San]

wonder if Gute will make Rodgers the first to get a completely guaranteed multi-year contract? 5-$140-$145m. hell of a can of worms to open. would that kill the cap?

Only if he were injured or traded. Retirement could have a claw back provision.

 

[gbgary]

Geez......thanks for ruining my day, I almost lost my lunch when I went through that list!

just remember TT chose who he wanted and didn't "trust" some peoples opinions.

 

[HardRightEdge]

He doesn't need to go crazy in free agency. He just needs to make a few really good moves and draft well.

I'd agree with that. That's not a change in approach. It would be an improvement in execution which may be exactly what Murphy and the board are looking for.

I don't think it is a choice, but rather a cap necessity, that one of the following will be gone:

Nelson, Cobb, Bulaga or Matthews, and I don't think it will be Matthews.

Of course that won't stop a thread being posted here for every name free agent on the market.

 

[GleefulGary]

Actually, I did not assume that at all if you'd bother to read all the way to the bottom. Or if you read the opening where I described it as a "glimpse".

But it also begs the question, what evidence do you have the contrary?

Well.

Alonzo Highsmith was responsible for Sam Shields. That's one.

 

[HardRightEdge]

wonder if Gute will make Rodgers the first to get a completely guaranteed multi-year contract? 5-$140-$145m. hell of a can of worms to open. would that kill the cap?

Your $145 mil, $29 mil per year, is in the ballpark in light of Stafford's $27 mil per year high high water mark.

You don't mean to suggest the entire $145 mil would be guaranteed, do you? That's a little crazy.

If it gets done at all this year, it should not be the first order of business. Don't you think it would be best to at least wait for camp to get a better look at how he's throwing the ball coming off this injury?

As for the cap, Rodgers currently counts $21 million per year against the cap for 2018 and 2019. Now, it's easy to say those numbers can be reduced in a renegotiation. But to clear cap space for today, there would have to be massive signing bonus where you load the cap liability into the back end of the new deal. Then you're set up for a big cap crunch in the out years at the time Rodgers may be in decline.

The fact cap space is tight now can't be ignored.

This will not be easy.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well.

Alonzo Highsmith was responsible for Sam Shields. That's one.

That would not be evidence to the contrary.

So, how do you know Highsmith was responsible for Shields? Highsmith's territory was the Southwest. I saw a passing reference to this that also mentioned Driver as a Highsmith guy, also not from the Southwest.

 

[AmishMafia]

It occurred to me just this moment that there is one way to get a glimpse into Gutekunst's scouting ability.
. .
Otherwise, on balance, the overall record is pretty good but it does not say "super scout" to me.

Actually, I did not assume that at all if you'd bother to read all the way to the bottom. Or if you read the opening where I described it as a "glimpse".

But it also begs the question, what evidence do you have the contrary? If you're right, I'd have to subtract a 5 start scouting effort from Gutekunst's record.

A glimpse at something he is not responsible for. One of those draft pick busts, he could have graded 5.0. His boss, the director of college scouting could have revised to 5.2. TT could have raised to 5.3. Medical could have cleared him on something and he got back a medical deduction 0.2 so up to 5.5.

As evidence, Mark Murphy stated in introducing Gutekunst that he reviewed Gute's player evaluations for our top picks for the last few years. As the head of scouting, he was doing the player evaluation, and not the area scouts.

 

[weeds]

All three reporting directly to Murphy. That gives me the woobies a bit.

 

[longtimefan]

All three reporting directly to Murphy. That gives me the woobies a bit.

Murphy has to act like "an owner"?

 

[OldSchool101]

Are we going to be able to capture any of the Martellus contract this year? That would sure come in handy being he left so early into his contract.

 

[OldSchool101]

Grand PooBah of All Thing Football

We will see how creative Gutekunst can be.

Ha
Supreme Potentate of Coaching (although this might throw MM into a fit of anger) Yeah, best let him go. lol

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wolf is headed to Cleveland tomorrow for an interview. Makes sense, Dorsey and Highsmith are both there.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/08/eliot-wolf-will-interview-with-browns-on-tuesday/

 

[easyk83]

Yup.....and it will come with either renegotiating contracts or cutting players who currently may be making more than they should.

Top 4 on such list might be:

1. Matthews
2. Cobb
3. Nelson
4. Bulaga

They cant lose Matthews because pass rush is already a problem. Nelson who is ever the good soldier would probably take a pay cut. Bulaga as a Rodgers OT is too valuable to cut without a steady replacement which leaves Cobb a the odd man out.

 

[brandon2348]

They cant lose Matthews because pass rush is already a problem. Nelson who is ever the good soldier would probably take a pay cut. Bulaga as a Rodgers OT is too valuable to cut without a steady replacement which leaves Cobb a the odd man out.

But I thought Cobb and Rodgers were really good friends?

 

[HardRightEdge]

A glimpse at something he is not responsible for. One of those draft pick busts, he could have graded 5.0. His boss, the director of college scouting could have revised to 5.2. TT could have raised to 5.3. Medical could have cleared him on something and he got back a medical deduction 0.2 so up to 5.5.

As evidence, Mark Murphy stated in introducing Gutekunst that he reviewed Gute's player evaluations for our top picks for the last few years. As the head of scouting, he was doing the player evaluation, and not the area scouts.

So, Amish, what specifically was he responsible for in his time as a scout? If not having some responsibility for the picks out of that region, then what? If you want to say, "I dunno, it's a mystery", I'm perfectly fine with that. Or if you want to say, "Murphy's confident and I'm fine with that," that's OK too, though I would observe that if Murphy was such an insightful man in matters of the football operation then we wouldn't have had this mess to start with.

As the head of scouting, he was doing the player evaluation, and not the area scouts.

Well, I would expect that he would have reviewed the tape of the upper portion of the board. I would expect him to at least make the trip to the Combine, Pro Days of some of the candidates. and maybe the college all star games. I would also expect him to take seriously the reports and grades of his area scouts for all potential picks as a check on his own evaluation. He cannot personally evaluate the thousands of players coming out of college. And for the bottom half of the board, the initial UDFA group, and the PS guys who flow in and out during the year, he must rely heavily on scouting evaluations. Otherwise, why have area scouts at all? He can do everything and be everywhere!

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think the most interesting thing I read here is that McCarthy, Ball, and Gutekunst report to Murphy.... That apparently puts them all on equal footing in the organization... and means the GM cannot directly hire or fire the other 2.

Gutekusnst is rookie in the "decider' business. You would not want to hand him the keys to the kingdom.

Once McCarthy established himself, Thompson would not have had the authority to just boot him on his own volition nor did McCarthy have sole authority to just boot Capers. NFL football clubs are small, top heavy organizations. These are critical decisions in the hands of a few people. You cannot expect the man at the top to just rubber stamp everything, or the #2 guy to just rubber stamp everything the #3 guy does, or expect the #3 guy to make his case about he needs and not have that opinion respected.

There are power struggles too, as evidenced in the winners and the departing or disappointed losers in this mess. In point of fact, I would not be surprised if McCarthy exercised influence to get Thompson booted upstairs just as Reid made his case to get Dorsey fired.

In a way this is better, if that's in fact how the org chart lays out. The power sharing and lines of authority to the top are clearer. Some years down the road, if Gutekunst can establish himself as a top GM, he'll earn more trust and authority.

And maybe Murphy has determined that he will be spending less time buying gas stations and building hotels and can apply himself more to the football operation.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Murphy has to act like "an owner"?

He is like an owner, and always was, even if he didn't act like it. That's probably too harsh. He might well have been acting like an owner who was reluctant to make changes...up to this point.

From a business standpoint, it probably did not escape notice that TV ratings are not what they once were and that gravy train can't keep barrelling down the tracks forever at the current level of fan interest. At the same time, Packer aftermarket tickets were dropping below face value during the Hundley "era", providing a glimpse of what a protracted period of losing might look like. That should have been a wake up call.

However, he's not like Jones, Kraft, et. al. who are sole owners with nobody to report to except the bankers to whom they owe money, and at this juncture those bankers are not concerned about getting paid and therefore have no interest in interfering.

Murphy is more like the managing partner of an ownership group. Just as a managing partner still has to account to his silent partners, Murphy has to account to his Board.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With Hundley throwing the ball there is no way to know whether Cobb and Nelson can still play at a high level. In the Panthers game Rodgers missed a TD to Nelson because he wasn't really ready to come back.

Adams still put up decent numbers with Hundley throwing the ball though. It seems both Nelson and Cobb have declined and should agree to their contracts being restructured.

His number vs the cap has been lower than it could've been thought, no?

The Patriots have definitely structured Brady's contract in a smart way for quite some time but that doesn't mean he relinquished any money to make it work.

wonder if Gute will make Rodgers the first to get a completely guaranteed multi-year contract? 5-$140-$145m. hell of a can of worms to open. would that kill the cap?

The Packers shouldn't guarantee all of Rodgers' next contract as the cap would be screwed if he suffered a career ending injury.

As for the cap, Rodgers currently counts $21 million per year against the cap for 2018 and 2019. Now, it's easy to say those numbers can be reduced in a renegotiation. But to clear cap space for today, there would have to be massive signing bonus where you load the cap liability into the back end of the new deal. Then you're set up for a big cap crunch in the out years at the time Rodgers may be in decline.

I would be fine with heavily backloading Rodgers next contract as it's probable the team will at least need a season to rebuild after he retires in which they could afford taking a massive amount of dead money counting against the cap.

They cant lose Matthews because pass rush is already a problem. Nelson who is ever the good soldier would probably take a pay cut. Bulaga as a Rodgers OT is too valuable to cut without a steady replacement which leaves Cobb a the odd man out.

Unfortunately I don't believe the Packers can rely on Bulaga staying healthy, maybe resulting in him being released this offseason.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

But I thought Cobb and Rodgers were really good friends?

Rodgers was also a good friend to Tom Crabtree - It didn't stop the Packers from letting Crabtree go. It's a business, and Rodgers knows that.

I'm not sure which veterans will looking for work or asked to take a pay cut, but there's a new sheriff in town, and there's bound to be some changes.