Brian Gutekunst new Packers GM

[Pokerbrat2000]

I stopped trying to make sense out of Comp picks and how they are calculated, evidently this is where that work is done......

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or maybe if the truth were told...this is the guy running the Compensatory show?

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[HardRightEdge]

This was also a concern of mine, I believe he was in his wedding. There are some tough choices on many levels.

I'm reminded of when Rodgers made his desire known in the press regarding the re-signing of Wells. That did not work out the way he wanted. Since then, his public expressions of support have been more muted. Saying in-season that he likes having Cobb on the field is different than stumping in the off season for a guy being re-signed. We have not heard that from him in quite some time.

Rodgers is a smart guy. I think he's figured out by now what he doesn't know. He's not intimately familiar with the cap spreadsheets going out several years. He's not in tune to the current competitive landscape for free agents. He's not getting told by agents which players are not going to be resigned and would be available in free agency. He's not intimately familiar with scouting assessments for drafted replacements or where there may be positional depth at each spot on the board. And he's probably not poured over the tape of his defense and developed his own grades to know what trade offs on that side of the ball must be made to satisfy his offensive wishes.

In short, I think he's smart enough to know he does not have the accumulated knowledge and expertise of the coaches, scouts and front office. You don't have to be all that smart; you just have to have your ego in some kind of check.

Now, Rodgers might express a wish that Cobb be retained and be able to make a detailed case for it. At this stage, given past experience, that would be kept internal where it belongs. But can he make an assessment that Cobb is worth his cap to the football organization as a whole given the available alternatives and the necessary tradeoffs? I think he knows he cannot.

And lets face it. We're not talking about Antonio Brown here, where Roethlisberger saying, "just pay the man", would get a lot of heads nodding and doesn't need to be said anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Another example of what one can do with numbers. I checked Sportrac, and the $6 mil average was 6th or 7th. Then, I realized that was strong safeties, and you were looking at overall safeties and correct, there. Then the question becomes do the comp picks get made on the basis of all or strong? I'm sure they differentiate between LT and RT, ILB and OLB, et. al., so, I wonder how they do it for DBs (slot corner versus outside corner?). My head is starting to hurt too much to continue.

Nobody can answer with any precision how the league makes these determinations. But I would suggest from past instances that they don't do much if any position weighting. It's mostly just the value of the contract.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Van Pelt wasn't fired.

It was agreed BEFORE the season started that he didn't want his contract renewed so he could look for work elsewhere.

If that's the case, I guess we could say Van Pelt's heart was not in it.

There will be 4 QBs in camp. Somebody is going to have to beat out Hundley, a guy who won three games, and nearly a fourth, in his first foray into money games. He did better than I expected.

Do you think Trubisky or Kiser would have done any better, or last season's version of Wentz or Goff, coming in cold without first team reps or a tailored scheme? I don't.

So be careful what you wish for out of some rookie no matter where you pick him. Even high pick QBs stink it up as rookies even when they were installed as starters all the way back to OTAs.

 

[gbgary]

Your $145 mil, $29 mil per year, is in the ballpark in light of Stafford's $27 mil per year high high water mark.

You don't mean to suggest the entire $145 mil would be guaranteed, do you? That's a little crazy.

If it gets done at all this year, it should not be the first order of business. Don't you think it would be best to at least wait for camp to get a better look at how he's throwing the ball coming off this injury?

As for the cap, Rodgers currently counts $21 million per year against the cap for 2018 and 2019. Now, it's easy to say those numbers can be reduced in a renegotiation. But to clear cap space for today, there would have to be massive signing bonus where you load the cap liability into the back end of the new deal. Then you're set up for a big cap crunch in the out years at the time Rodgers may be in decline.

The fact cap space is tight now can't be ignored.

This will not be easy.

completely guaranteed multi-year contract? 5-$140-$145m.

yup. was thinking by making it fully guaranteed it would help get a cheaper (per year) contract. as for him being in decline, the legs would go first. i'm not concerned about the arm as EVERYONE was saying he was throwing great. i'm no capologist so my main point was whether it was a cap killer or not.

 

[HardRightEdge]

EVERYONE was saying he was throwing great.

I'm reluctant to share that opinion. Squared up to the throw he looked like the same Rodgers. However, when throwing across his body, a Rodgers stock in trade, his mechanics looked slightly different. It's hard to characterize the difference precisely, but I'd say he was not getting as smooth and full follow-through on the throw. There's not a lot to go by in one game, but I would not assume he's 100%. Full healing takes 6 months, and that assumes there's no aggravation from the plate and screws.

By now everybody should be conditioned to the fact that the best face is put injury scenarios and sometimes they just don't work out that way. And then when things do not work out optimally, some fans complain about the medical staff or something less than full disclosure.

 

[HardRightEdge]

yup. was thinking by making it fully guaranteed it would help get a cheaper (per year) contract. as for him being in decline, the legs would go first. i'm not concerned about the arm as EVERYONE was saying he was throwing great. i'm no capologist so my main point was whether it was a cap killer or not.

Why do you think nobody ever does that? It's because if the guy gets seriously injured or goes into decline you've screwed yourself for years to come.

 

[Ogsponge]

Your $145 mil, $29 mil per year, is in the ballpark in light of Stafford's $27 mil per year high high water mark.

You don't mean to suggest the entire $145 mil would be guaranteed, do you? That's a little crazy.

If it gets done at all this year, it should not be the first order of business. Don't you think it would be best to at least wait for camp to get a better look at how he's throwing the ball coming off this injury?

As for the cap, Rodgers currently counts $21 million per year against the cap for 2018 and 2019. Now, it's easy to say those numbers can be reduced in a renegotiation. But to clear cap space for today, there would have to be massive signing bonus where you load the cap liability into the back end of the new deal. Then you're set up for a big cap crunch in the out years at the time Rodgers may be in decline.

The fact cap space is tight now can't be ignored.

This will not be easy.

Can you do that with signing bonus? I thought the signing bonus had to be done evenly over the length of the contract (max of 5 years) and the the base salary is what gets backloaded

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Why do you thing nobody ever does that? It's because if the guy gets seriously injured or goes into decline you've screwed yourself for years to come.

Uhm, nobody ever does that because of collusion among the owners, knowing that opening up that can of worms, while best for the players, would be awful for the billionaires and their NFL toys. It's going to take Andrew Luck or an elite QB holding out for a guaranteed deal to open that door. Part of me actually hopes that Rodgers might be that guy and risk taking the heat for the betterment of the players that are actually out there risking their bodies.

And your point about ******** yourselves for years only applies to the owner and team; you're forgetting that by NOT having that language, the PLAYER is screwed for years if they get hurt. And despite what many believe, not every NFL player is set for life.

 

[Mondio]

they get their guarantees with the signing bonus and I don't see that changing. Not with the salary cap in place and I don't see that going anywhere either anytime soon. It forces tough decisions and keep the league competitive.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Can you do that with signing bonus? I thought the signing bonus had to be done evenly over the length of the contract (max of 5 years) and the the base salary is what gets backloaded

Right. But the way you backload the cap is by giving the player cash up front in a signing bonus. That implies more salary at the back end. Without the former you don't get to do the latter. It's all of a piece.

Let's say the Packers and Rodgers agree to wipe out the last two years of Rodgers current deal and replace it with a 5 year deal going out to age 39 at the previously suggested $145 million total. One attractive aspect of this approach is there's no signing bonus cap hangover left from the last deal that would have to be worked around.

So lets cut him and sign Alex Smith for a lot less. LOL But I digress for some cheap humor.

Anyway, you could hit him with a $58 million dollar signing bonus which is the only guaranteed money and a $1 million salary in 2018 and 2019.

Rodgers gets a big fat check up front which would certainly make him happy, the cap hit in the first two years is $12.6 million vs. the current $21 million, so that buys you an $8.4 million per year free agent for two years.

After than you start to run into problems. To get to $145 million, you're spreading $120 million cap hit, or $40 million per year, over the last 3 years. The dead cap in year 3 is $37.8 million and then $25.2 million in year 4 from the signing bonus leaving zero protection against decline. "Decline" is not just from age. It could be from accumulated injuries that affect performance but does not prevent playing. In the current state of affairs, to take one example, that's the Bulaga question coming off his 3rd. IR injury, ACL, Hip, ACL, and other miscellaneous bumps, bruises and sprains.

The problem is further compounded by Rodgers age. Unlike a 30 year old player, you cannot get to the 3rd. or 4th. year, restructure again, and kick the can further down the road. This kind of deal going out to age 39 is as far as you can expect to go. It's terminal.

In the mean time, what about that $8.4 million free agent you signed back in 2018? If that was a 4 year deal because you wanted to add some impact, and you back loaded the cap on that one too, there's cap spillover into the third and fourth years where the Rodgers cap his starting to build.

We can talk about deferring cap and we can talk ab0ut singing a name free agent or two until we're blue in the face, but that's not going to fix a mediocre roster.

The key to winning in this league, once you have your franchise QB, is to get a critical mass of players who perform above their contracts, and the best way to do that is from good players under cheap rookie contracts drafted in a narrow 4 year window where they're all cheap simultaneously. If you get that, then you'll have cap to fill in with free agents. That's how Seattle got to two Super Bowls...5 Pro Bowlers all on cheap deals, and then 4 after that, and then big contracts doled out to them, and then a gradual slide as the cap flexibility became very limited.

If you don't draft well, and your name is not Hoodie in the land of magical wheeling and dealing, you're spinning your wheels even if the spinning is at a high level of early playoff exits. Even Hoodie is nearing the end of the road as he's had to cut too close to the bone on defense and his QB is 40 years old. No wonder there's strains showing in NFL's Nirvanaville.

Everybody who touts draft and develop likes to talk about bringing guys in who learn and grow within the Packer (or Steeler or whoever) process. That's nice, but what they don't want to say out loud is they're cheap players for 4 years.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Uhm, nobody ever does that because of collusion among the owners, knowing that opening up that can of worms, while best for the players, would be awful for the billionaires and their NFL toys. It's going to take Andrew Luck or an elite QB holding out for a guaranteed deal to open that door. Part of me actually hopes that Rodgers might be that guy and risk taking the heat for the betterment of the players that are actually out there risking their bodies.

And your point about ******** yourselves for years only applies to the owner and team; you're forgetting that by NOT having that language, the PLAYER is screwed for years if they get hurt. And despite what many believe, not every NFL player is set for life.

There's quite a bit to be said in response to that but I don't think it's worth it. I'll just say that's not the current reality and if one wants to believe that someday a QB might break the mold with an all-guaranteed contract, it won't be Rodgers. He's under contract for two more years. He's nowhere near having that kind of leverage.

As for your comment about not every NFL player being set for life, that's not hard to see. Are you suggesting all NFL contracts should be fully guaranteed as in baseball? That will never happen. People lose track of how many players come into the game, get injured, and then exit. Tons. People also don't understand that there are only a few franchises where it's a great business to be in. For most, it's OK, not great. For a couple it is not even OK. Even billionaire hobbyists want to break even on their hobby, and many would not be able to do that if all contracts were fully guaranteed.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Another example of what one can do with numbers. I checked Sportrac, and the $6 mil average was 6th or 7th. Then, I realized that was strong safeties, and you were looking at overall safeties and correct, there. Then the question becomes do the comp picks get made on the basis of all or strong? I'm sure they differentiate between LT and RT, ILB and OLB, et. al., so, I wonder how they do it for DBs (slot corner versus outside corner?). My head is starting to hurt too much to continue.

 

[weeds]

Murphy has to act like "an owner"?

Not so much that. How about visions of Lindy and Tom Bratz crying to Judge Parins.

Murphy talked of "silos". Seems this restructuring created 4 distictive silos. Each silo wanting to protect his own sileage

 

[Poppa San]

Not so much that. How about visions of Lindy and Tom Bratz crying to Judge Parins.

Murphy talked of "silos". Seems this restructuring created 4 distictive silos. Each silo wanting to protect his own sileage

Guys on the radio mentioned the Judge Parins days also. And when Harlan took over, that is when the change that Wolf wanted set the team up for success. Keep the local small business owners OUT of the decision making football side of the corporation.This might be OK for a few years, but it could go bad 3-5 years out when the honeymoon is long over.

 

[RRyder]

Uhm, nobody ever does that because of collusion among the owners, knowing that opening up that can of worms, while best for the players, would be awful for the billionaires and their NFL toys. It's going to take Andrew Luck or an elite QB holding out for a guaranteed deal to open that door. Part of me actually hopes that Rodgers might be that guy and risk taking the heat for the betterment of the players that are actually out there risking their bodies.

And your point about ******** yourselves for years only applies to the owner and team; you're forgetting that by NOT having that language, the PLAYER is screwed for years if they get hurt. And despite what many believe, not every NFL player is set for life.

There's no collusion. In a sport like football its simply foolish to do.

Fyi the Jets just did this with Revis, and ended up paying him to sit at home when father time caught up to him, so it's not like it can't or hasn't been done so your "it's going to take an elite QB to open the door" theory is incorrect and makes no sense. The doors open. It has been. It simply isn't done because it isn't smart to do

Guaranteed contracts aren't prohibited in the NFL just like they aren't mandated in the NBA. They just aren't a good idea in a sport where the roster size is what it is and injuries are common

 

[gbgary]

Why do you think nobody ever does that? It's because if the guy gets seriously injured or goes into decline you've screwed yourself for years to come.

of course, that's obvious. as i said it was a thought for getting a better per year deal for the club. of course you'd put in some creative protections for both sides. was just a thought.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Since I couldn't find a Ted Thompson thread that was still open, I thought I would post this here. A really good read by Former Packers vice president Andrew Brandt. Talking about TT, past and future. Some of the "inside" information about TT that I often wondered about.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/09/packers-ted-thompson-transition-senior-advisor

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Edge rusher is an area of particular need where the money that the Packers already have tied up in Matthews and Perry make a rookie more sensible than another veteran, in my opinion. I would not be sorry to see them move up for a good one. Nor would I mind a move to secure a developmental QB.

Gutekunst should definitely approach Matthews about restructuring his contract to allow him to bring in another veteran edge rusher.

It's time to start taking shots on young guys, but you don't want the backup to be an unknown.

True, therefore the Packers should bring in a veteran on a reasonable deal to compete with Hundley for the backup position.

Another example of what one can do with numbers. I checked Sportrac, and the $6 mil average was 6th or 7th. Then, I realized that was strong safeties, and you were looking at overall safeties and correct, there. Then the question becomes do the comp picks get made on the basis of all or strong? I'm sure they differentiate between LT and RT, ILB and OLB, et. al., so, I wonder how they do it for DBs (slot corner versus outside corner?). My head is starting to hurt too much to continue.

Over The Cap is doing a pretty good job of predicting compensatory picks:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

of course, that's obvious. as i said it was a thought for getting a better per year deal for the club. of course you'd put in some creative protections for both sides. was just a thought.

It's impossible for the team to include any protection by fully guaranteeing a contract.

 

[jetfixer]

As an FYI, signing bonuses are what they sound like: cash money up front in the form of a check with the necessary tax and other deductions. Checks are typically cut at signing or withing a few days.

When Adams and Linsley signed those contracts on 12/30, you can assume checks were cut that day to book in 2017.

I mention this because in the Bennett situation, it's a matter of clawing back cash money already paid, not withholding money due. And if you don't claw back the cash, you don't claw back the cap space.

The onus is on the Packers to make their case. That's harder than if the money was withheld and Bennett had to make his case to get the payment.

Ok, help me out here.......4.2 of this dead money, as of now we owe it? But there are ways to get it back?

 

[Dantés]

Gutekunst should definitely approach Matthews about restructuring his contract to allow him to bring in another veteran edge rusher.



True, therefore the Packers should bring in a veteran on a reasonable deal to compete with Hundley for the backup position.



Over The Cap is doing a pretty good job of predicting compensatory picks:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/



It's impossible for the team to include any protection by fully guaranteeing a contract.

I’m sorry for boggling you, but I do really think the Packers have better defensive personnel at every position minus corner compared to the Bears.

 

[Mondio]

Since I couldn't find a Ted Thompson thread that was still open, I thought I would post this here. A really good read by Former Packers vice president Andrew Brandt. Talking about TT, past and future. Some of the "inside" information about TT that I often wondered about.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/09/packers-ted-thompson-transition-senior-advisor

There has been very little written about Ted over the years. He doesn't give us much. But the 2-3 well written things I've seen over the years point to a guy that just loves football. I laugh when I read all this stuff about Ted doing this for his ego and being stubborn to prove he's smarter than everyone and making this decision to protect his legacy and is some sort of puppet master pulling all these strings and making all these people dance to stay in control, but behind the scenes to take the spot light off of himself. One might say, it boggles my mind.

I think Ted is easy to figure out. He loves football, he doesn't care much about himself or his legacy and has always made decisions he thought were in the best interest of the GB Packers. he's not perfect, but sometimes he was the smartest guy in the room I think he had a vision and some might say he was stubborn, others might say he was disciplined enough to stay within that plan when it was awfully tempting to stray from it. I think it played a huge role in making the first pick he ever made for the Packers, but that's just me. I've been accused of having Ted Posters up in my bedroom so i'm probably biased. I think he got us built with great chances to win at least 2 more Super Bowls than we did. One more with Favre, then made the decision to move on and looking back that was an easy decision and very popular one too LOL, and then built it again to win with Rodgers and we did, saw some attrition then made a couple signings again to build it for that '14 run and don't kid yourself. We were stacked. That should have resulted in some more opportunities, but specific positional injuries really hurt the next 2 years. Now it's time to build again and he saw it was time for change and stepped aside and is giving another guy a chance to build this team. and he left us in decent shape like I always thought he would. We need some players, it happens in football and in life. Cycles, ebbs, flows. But we're not drowning in cap commitments and we have some room to work and make more if need be.

I wish he would write a book one day. I do think he's incredibly smart. he rarely spoke and he'd have little quips and some pretty funny stuff thrown in that I don't think most people got. and he'd always tell you nothing and I don't think he needed to. So many faces of a franchise, I think he was smart to let the coach, the QB, the legends of this team be the faces and he just did his work. I would think most people that have worked for success have a lot of respect for Ted, even if they didn't like all of his decisions.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There has been very little written about Ted over the years. He doesn't give us much. But the 2-3 well written things I've seen over the years point to a guy that just loves football. I laugh when I read all this stuff about Ted doing this for his ego and being stubborn to prove he's smarter than everyone and making this decision to protect his legacy and is some sort of puppet master pulling all these strings and making all these people dance to stay in control, but behind the scenes to take the spot light off of himself. One might say, it boggles my mind.

I think Ted is easy to figure out. He loves football, he doesn't care much about himself or his legacy and has always made decisions he thought were in the best interest of the GB Packers. he's not perfect, but sometimes he was the smartest guy in the room I think he had a vision and some might say he was stubborn, others might say he was disciplined enough to stay within that plan when it was awfully tempting to stray from it. I think it played a huge role in making the first pick he ever made for the Packers, but that's just me. I've been accused of having Ted Posters up in my bedroom so i'm probably biased. I think he got us built with great chances to win at least 2 more Super Bowls than we did. One more with Favre, then made the decision to move on and looking back that was an easy decision and very popular one too LOL, and then built it again to win with Rodgers and we did, saw some attrition then made a couple signings again to build it for that '14 run and don't kid yourself. We were stacked. That should have resulted in some more opportunities, but specific positional injuries really hurt the next 2 years. Now it's time to build again and he saw it was time for change and stepped aside and is giving another guy a chance to build this team. and he left us in decent shape like I always thought he would. We need some players, it happens in football and in life. Cycles, ebbs, flows. But we're not drowning in cap commitments and we have some room to work and make more if need be.

I wish he would write a book one day. I do think he's incredibly smart. he rarely spoke and he'd have little quips and some pretty funny stuff thrown in that I don't think most people got. and he'd always tell you nothing and I don't think he needed to. So many faces of a franchise, I think he was smart to let the coach, the QB, the legends of this team be the faces and he just did his work. I would think most people that have worked for success have a lot of respect for Ted, even if they didn't like all of his decisions.

Good insight Mondio. Brandt said some of the same things. As Brandt infers, he really isn't a guy who likes the spotlight or the microphone. I think a lot of people mistake that for having a big ego, arrogance or being "to big to speak to the people". When in reality, as you said, he preferred focusing on his job and The Green Bay Packers.

I would be right with you in that line to buy his autobiography, but sadly, he most likely would never participate in one, not his style.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

True, therefore the Packers should bring in a veteran on a reasonable deal to compete with Hundley for the backup position.

Amen. I would have expected TT to use a late round pick on another QB to compete mainly with Callahan, but I hope BG saw that its the #2 who needs to be pushed and does that with a Veteran signing.

 

[Half Empty]

Ok, help me out here.......4.2 of this dead money, as of now we owe it? But there are ways to get it back?

Yup