Brayden Narveson

[tynimiller]

Folks that think kicking is easy....here's a stat for you.

Justin Tucker is arguably the greatest kicker ever, the best kicker presently arguably....and if he retired right now would have the highest career percentage on field goals EVER....

And it isn't even over 90% - 89.7% the number would be.

Even Tucker's last two years have been just 86%

 

[Heyjoe4]

Truthfully it makes sense if we have someone else wanting to come in or a clear vet to take over. I mean at this point I'm not opposed if Crosby did want a curtain call to come back and put Narveson on the PS for a year....but truthfully I'm a ride the kicker through and make changes in off season if we must.

Agreed. Once the season starts, and especially at the specialist position, it's hard to make changes. Biden it out for now. MLF is vocally behind him. Yeah maybe he doesn't have a choice but it still helps.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just broke them all down along with Maher and old man Crosby.

Maher has the highest coin flip potential and least amount of baggage...

I think you mean Matthew Wright (not Knight)?

Maher might be a short term fix, but he will be 35 next month and kind of like Bullock, might be best to find your future kicker this season.

If they are going to make a switch or bring a guy in, I would like to see Riley Patterson. Young, but experienced.

Precisely...I mean we are still small enough where each kick makes a massive swing to his % numbers

I think this is the chance you take with guys like Narveson and Anders Carlson. They haven't been through the rigors of a few seasons of NFL kicking. So instead of relying on "what has he done in the past", you have to rely on "Does this guy look like he can kick in the NFL?" Personally, I would rather have a vet kicking, that has established himself and you pretty much know what to expect. That said, I wouldn't want a short term fix in a 34+ year old kicker. Yes, some kick well past 35, but I would prefer finding an under 30 guy and have him for the next 4-8 years.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you mean Matthew Wright (not Knight)?

Maher might be a short term fix, but he will be 35 next month and kind of like Bullock, might be best to find your future kicker this season.

If they are going to make a switch or bring a guy in, I would like to see Riley Patterson. Young, but experienced.


I think this is the chance you take with guys like Narveson and Anders Carlson. They haven't been through the rigors of a few seasons of NFL kicking. So instead of relying on "what has he done in the past", you have to rely on "Does this guy look like he can kick in the NFL?" Personally, I would rather have a vet kicking, that has established himself and you pretty much know what to expect. That said, I wouldn't want a short term fix in a 34+ year old kicker. Yes, some kick well past 35, but I would prefer finding an under 30 guy and have him for the next 4-8 years.

Yeah Wright not Knight

 

[Magooch]

Anders was oddly a roller coaster on XPs way more than field goals...I mean truthfully his field goals he was 20 for 20 under 40 yards. BUT was 7 for 13 over 40...

Anders and Narveson are truly it seems VERY similar young kickers when it comes to field goal attempts...but one thing Narveson has been pure on is XPs it seems.

Just to extrapolate some math (I was curious myself)...

Narveson's 17-game average at this pace would be a total of 38/55 FGM and 38/38 XPM. Now to be fair this is largely academic. Odds are that he will most likely end up missing at least an XP or two, and will probably make a few more chip shot FGs (at minimum) pushing that number up.
But just for fun...this would amount to 51 points left "on the table" as it stands.
By the same measure last season Carlson was 27/33 in total FGs and 34/39 in XPs. That would be then 23 points left on the table...

But, like i said. That will probably not bear out in actuality, more of just a fun thought exercise. Though I will say...my perception was that Carlson was WAY worse on extra points. In reality, Carlson missed 5 extra points all year, and 6 field goals. So while Narveson likely won't finish the year at 70% FGM (he will be long gone before then if he maintains that pace IMO), he HAS currently left 12 points on the table through 4 games, which is more than half of what Carlson left for a whole season...

 

[tynimiller]

Just to extrapolate some math (I was curious myself)...

Narveson's 17-game average at this pace would be a total of 38/55 FGM and 38/38 XPM. Now to be fair this is largely academic. Odds are that he will most likely end up missing at least an XP or two, and will probably make a few more chip shot FGs (at minimum) pushing that number up.
But just for fun...this would amount to 51 points left "on the table" as it stands.
By the same measure last season Carlson was 27/33 in total FGs and 34/39 in XPs. That would be then 23 points left on the table...

But, like i said. That will probably not bear out in actuality, more of just a fun thought exercise. Though I will say...my perception was that Carlson was WAY worse on extra points. In reality, Carlson missed 5 extra points all year, and 6 field goals. So while Narveson likely won't finish the year at 70% FGM (he will be long gone before then if he maintains that pace IMO), he HAS currently left 12 points on the table through 4 games, which is more than half of what Carlson left for a whole season...

tiny sample sizes lesson such exercises. Now at about the half way mark or 2/3 of the way I expect we might know a LOT more.

 

[milani]

This more than likely is a big factor at this point. He has to be on the edge every day, wondering if he's going to have a job or not. For a Packer kicker, for over two years now, it's been living out of a suitcase, because you don't know if you're going to have a job next week or not.

That's a problem created by management. Nobody knows from day to day what they will do. LeFleur keeps saying he believes in Narvy, but we have Gute up there in the tower, making decisions. Not showing any support for the guy. Always looking to bring another candidate in to kick a few times in practice to impress him, and hopefully LeFleur.

But, based on a comment LeFleur made a while back, the decision who will be kicking off the tee next week has been Gute's decision. That, by the way, concerns me. Does that mean Gute makes the roster decisions, and Mike just gets to run whatever he tells him he has, or does Mike have some decision level in who stays and who goes?

There always seems to be some little burr under the saddle that makes each season risky.

Teams are rightfully sensitive to place kickers today. More so for their misses than their makes. As I once iterated back in the era of old world kickers historians forget that the biggest reason Lombardi failed to win another championship in 1964 was not the Baltimore Colts nor the Cleveland Browns. It was his place kicker. And that was Paul Hornung who went 12-39 as well as missing 2 ten yard extra points that resulted in one point defeats! But Lombardi did not respond. And Hornung up until his suspension and injuries was a decent kicker for that era. Lombardi learned his lesson in the off season by getting a FT kicker with a good track record. Had Hornung made those 2 extra points and just 6 specific FGs in that season the Packers go to the Championship Game to face the Cleveland Browns who they had already beaten that season. So do not wait long here Gute!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Teams are rightfully sensitive to place kickers today. More so for their misses than their makes. As I once iterated back in the era of old world kickers historians forget that the biggest reason Lombardi failed to win another championship in 1964 was not the Baltimore Colts nor the Cleveland Browns. It was his place kicker. And that was Paul Hornung who went 12-39 as well as missing 2 ten yard extra points that resulted in one point defeats! But Lombardi did not respond. And Hornung up until his suspension and injuries was a decent kicker for that era. Lombardi learned his lesson in the off season by getting a FT kicker with a good track record. Had Hornung made those 2 extra points and just 6 specific FGs in that season the Packers go to the Championship Game to face the Cleveland Browns who they had already beaten that season. So do not wait long here Gute!

Not the best form and yeah, I think fans forgave his rusty toe, due to his abilities on offense.

THE TOE THAT LOST ITS TOUCH

In the beginning it was like old times. With metronomic perfection the Golden Toe swung thrice—once from 52 yards—and suddenly three field goals were on the

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[milani]

Not the best form and yeah, I think fans forgave his rusty toe, due to his abilities on offense.

THE TOE THAT LOST ITS TOUCH

In the beginning it was like old times. With metronomic perfection the Golden Toe swung thrice—once from 52 yards—and suddenly three field goals were on the

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Great information! Thanks. When Hornung came back after the suspension Lombardi wanted him in training early. He had an off season job with a beer distributor during his sabbatical. Hornung came to Green Bay in May and was doing reps up the bleachers to strengthen his legs. As the season got going he was 10-15 pounds under his playing weight. Recall that in 1962 after an early season injury Jerry Kramer took his place. And in 1961 his kicking duties got periodically interrupted when the Army recalled him due to the Berlin Crisis. Kramer kicked all of 1963. But come 1964 Kramer was out of action due to the unknown wood splinters in his thigh that made him very sick until it was discovered in 1965. He nearly died. Rosters were smaller then. Many teams were going to a FT kicker instead of a position player. I think Lombardi revered Hornung so much that he did not relent to make the change and shop for a kicker.

 

[gopkrs]

He came back from his suspension and couldn't kick worth a damn anymore. I saw a game where The Pack was going to kick a very short field goal and they took too much time so the angle would be better. Back then the hash marks were wider. The rams declined and Hornung missed.

 

[milani]

He came back from his suspension and couldn't kick worth a damn anymore. I saw a game where The Pack was going to kick a very short field goal and they took too much time so the angle would be better. Back then the hash marks were wider. The rams declined and Hornung missed.

The first game against the Rams he had about a 14 yard FG blocked that was ran back 94 yards for a TD. A 10 point swing that cost the game. The second Ram game he made one FG but missed 3 more. The game ended in a tie.

 

[Pugger]

Time to start shopping for a kicker again. Knew better than to trust this guy this early on.

But who are we gonna find out there now? Gute gambled and came up snake eyes.

 

[milani]

Not the best form and yeah, I think fans forgave his rusty toe, due to his abilities on offense.

THE TOE THAT LOST ITS TOUCH

In the beginning it was like old times. With metronomic perfection the Golden Toe swung thrice—once from 52 yards—and suddenly three field goals were on the

vault.si.com

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Tracking that season was able to look at our 5 losses and 1 tie in our 8-5-1 season. If in those games Hornung kicks at just above average the Packers would have gone 12-0-2! Even if he is average the Packers win the conference with 1 or 2 losses.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But who are we gonna find out there now? Gute gambled and came up snake eyes.

The pitfalls of trying to replace a solid long time veteran like Mason Crosby. I used to have a yearly discussion with a few posters that insisted that the Packers were paying too much for Mason and they would be better off just signing an UDFA Kicker. If that poster was still here, I would present "Seasons 2023 and so far, 2024, as evidence that he was wrong."

This isn't a lot different than what other teams go through trying to find a Kicker. For that matter, teams go through it trying to find a QB, Punter, etc. that they can rely on.

Sure would be nice to have a K that you can 100% count on, but since those don't exist, for now the Packers will need to play as if they expect their K to be 15% less accurate than a guy who makes 90% of his kicks.

I expect MLF to go for it more on 4th and short-medium range, outside the 30.

 

[Magooch]

I guess the odd thing to me is...

Narveson was a 92.9% kicker in 2020 for WKU.
For the next three years of college: 79.3%, 71.4%, and 78.3%. This year in Titans camp he was reportedly 21/28 on field goals, or 75%.
I have to ask: how many players tend to improve their kicking numbers when moving from college to the pros? I didn't have much issue with the signing at the time, as admittedly I didn't look into it much but I guess now I'm like...what did management expect here? That he would perform like he did in his sophomore year of college and the following 3+ years were an aberration, or...?

 

[tynimiller]

I guess the odd thing to me is...

Narveson was a 92.9% kicker in 2020 for WKU.
For the next three years of college: 79.3%, 71.4%, and 78.3%. This year in Titans camp he was reportedly 21/28 on field goals, or 75%.
I have to ask: how many players tend to improve their kicking numbers when moving from college to the pros? I didn't have much issue with the signing at the time, as admittedly I didn't look into it much but I guess now I'm like...what did management expect here? That he would perform like he did in his sophomore year of college and the following 3+ years were an aberration, or...?

A TON of kickers start rough and build.

Justin Tucker the leader is a rarity as he hit 90% rookie year
Eddy Pineiro who only played five years so far but is second for career only hit 82.1% of FG and missed 2 XPs rookie year.
Butker like Tucker also was electric as a rookie at 90% (in 2022 he only hit 75%)
Younghoe Koo who has become one of the best only hit 50% of his rookie kicks (4 games)
Daniel Carlson is 5th in career % and he hit only 81% rookie year, then only played two games hitting 1 of 4, then hit 94%, then 73.1 and since then has had 86% or better four straight seasons.
Chris Boswell hit 90% BUT like Carlson hit just 65% his fourth year and then 71% four years later after doing three 90%+ in a row....
Robbie Gould - hit just 77.8% his rookie year
Stephen Gostkowski - 76.9% on his rookie year
Dan Bailey - 86% his rookie year (had two 75% years in his career)

Adam Vinatieri - this was his first five years in order 77.1% , 86.2 %, 79.5%, 78.8% and 81.8%...he then had 80% a 90% then back down to 73.5% before hitting a stride of typically 80 or better. *his first six seasons folks, only one was better than Anders really from a FG perspective and his rookie year he missed three XPs (BEFORE THEY WERE 30+ yarders)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I guess the odd thing to me is...

Narveson was a 92.9% kicker in 2020 for WKU.
For the next three years of college: 79.3%, 71.4%, and 78.3%. This year in Titans camp he was reportedly 21/28 on field goals, or 75%.
I have to ask: how many players tend to improve their kicking numbers when moving from college to the pros? I didn't have much issue with the signing at the time, as admittedly I didn't look into it much but I guess now I'm like...what did management expect here? That he would perform like he did in his sophomore year of college and the following 3+ years were an aberration, or...?

If Gute and the Packers were "relying" on Narveson to return to his 2020 form, than it was a very dumb signing. Gute isn't dumb, nor is Bisaccia. I think they must have liked what they saw on film and heard from other coaches about Narveson.

Considering MLF didn't flinch at all about saying much about him after the game and they only brought in 2 RB's for tryouts yesterday, seems like the plan is that they are sticking with Narveson, for now.

Stats can be very deceiving, especially when the data is limited. I am guessing somewhere a site or person has evaluated a Kicker with something other than "makes and misses". I guess to truly evaluate a K, at minimum, each kick should be weighted on distance. Throw in "weather, wind, temp., bad hold, bad snap, bad blocking, injury, kickoffs, etc." and you might have a much better idea of who the top kickers are.

 

[Magooch]

This all being said though, perhaps in defense of Narveson...when do we start taking a look at the rest of the kicking unit? It seems like a lot of these issues have perhaps coincided with the combo of Orzech/Whelan snapping and holding and if you go back and look at a lot of our misses many have come where the snap and/or hold is less than optimal.

Another case of small sample size too, but we saw Greg Joseph struggle with us and moved to New York and went 5/5 in his first game. Now admittedly he missed one last week, but still sits at 5/6 FG and 3/3XP on the season. Again, that's a super small sampling, but combined with last season/this season it makes me wonder if the problem isn't just the kicker(s) alone.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This all being said though, perhaps in defense of Narveson...when do we start taking a look at the rest of the kicking unit? It seems like a lot of these issues have perhaps coincided with the combo of Orzech/Whelan snapping and holding and if you go back and look at a lot of our misses many have come where the snap and/or hold is less than optimal.

Another case of small sample size too, but we saw Greg Joseph struggle with us and moved to New York and went 5/5 in his first game. Now admittedly he missed one last week, but still sits at 5/6 FG and 3/3XP on the season. Again, that's a super small sampling, but combined with last season/this season it makes me wonder if the problem isn't just the kicker(s) alone.

I think anything/anyone is fair game when evaluating kickers.

It would be interesting to know where Alex Hale is in the process. Does he lose his IPPP status if he is elevated to the 53? I doubt it.

 

[Voyageur]

Old school philosophy in the NFL was that you couldn't afford to waste a roster spot on a kicker. Those were the days of 33 players, and peaking at 38 in 1960. But then 35 again. So, difficult to have a specialist like that. Same applies to long snapper.

 

[OldSchool101]

For example, yesterday the Vikings only won by 2 points, but I think on the field, at least yesterday, the Vikings were the much better team across the board.

I kinda half agree here. Let me explain. First you hit the nail on the head in bold. Obviously we both know it’s on any given Sunday. I remember reading before Sunday that the Vikings had been in the lead the vast majority of this year. Some teams are built to get in a lead and stay there. Some are not. Some are great “come from behind” teams. The Vikings had proven to be that first one… until yesterday. They had a 28 point lead and let us in the game up 6 points with 10:16 left in the game.
All that after this start.

Missed FG
INT
Missed FG
INT
Turnover on Downs

Now I’m not taking away anything from them as far as they ARE a quality team. But we had 6 Turnovers (on downs) and 2 Missed FG and this was a 2 point win. Another 2 minutes in that game clock or pair of timeouts and this could’ve been a Vikings loss. There’s no excuse for not putting us away earlier except that they just could not.

Just look at the Lions last night. When it was 27-35 and Seattle mounted a nice comeback? They answered with a nail in the coffin TD. THAT is winning in convincing fashion. The Vikings “Started” in convincing fashion but definitely did not end convincingly. Now that could be that GB is much better a team than how we started.

 

[milani]

The pitfalls of trying to replace a solid long time veteran like Mason Crosby. I used to have a yearly discussion with a few posters that insisted that the Packers were paying too much for Mason and they would be better off just signing an UDFA Kicker. If that poster was still here, I would present "Seasons 2023 and so far, 2024, as evidence that he was wrong."

This isn't a lot different than what other teams go through trying to find a Kicker. For that matter, teams go through it trying to find a QB, Punter, etc. that they can rely on.

Sure would be nice to have a K that you can 100% count on, but since those don't exist, for now the Packers will need to play as if they expect their K to be 15% less accurate than a guy who makes 90% of his kicks.

I expect MLF to go for it more on 4th and short-medium range, outside the 30.

In other words try to get the kid consistent kicks from 25-35 yards. When he appears to handle that you increase his range up to 40 and eventually to 45. Sounds like high school. Now if it is the last play of the half or game you can let him swing from 50 since you have nothing to lose.

 

[milani]

I kinda half agree here. Let me explain. First you hit the nail on the head in bold. Obviously we both know it’s on any given Sunday. I remember reading before Sunday that the Vikings had been in the lead the vast majority of this year. Some teams are built to get in a lead and stay there. Some are not. Some are great “come from behind” teams. The Vikings had proven to be that first one… until yesterday. They had a 28 point lead and let us in the game up 6 points with 10:16 left in the game.
All that after this start.

Missed FG
INT
Missed FG
INT
Turnover on Downs

Now I’m not taking away anything from them as far as they ARE a quality team. But we had 6 Turnovers (on downs) and 2 Missed FG and this was a 2 point win. Another 2 minutes in that game clock or pair of timeouts and this could’ve been a Vikings loss. There’s no excuse for not putting us away earlier except that they just could not.

Go look at the Lions. When it was 27-35? They answered with a nail in the coffin TD. They won in convincing fashion. The Vikings Started to n convincing fashion but definitely did not end convincingly

When we faced Minnesota last year in GB we lost by more with Cousins only playing 3 quarters although Jefferson was out.

 

[Pugger]

I guess the odd thing to me is...

Narveson was a 92.9% kicker in 2020 for WKU.
For the next three years of college: 79.3%, 71.4%, and 78.3%. This year in Titans camp he was reportedly 21/28 on field goals, or 75%.
I have to ask: how many players tend to improve their kicking numbers when moving from college to the pros? I didn't have much issue with the signing at the time, as admittedly I didn't look into it much but I guess now I'm like...what did management expect here? That he would perform like he did in his sophomore year of college and the following 3+ years were an aberration, or...?

The width of the uprights is wider in college but the hash markers are too. Besides having a strong leg I suspect a lot of kicking is what goes on between the ears.

 

[Pugger]

Old school philosophy in the NFL was that you couldn't afford to waste a roster spot on a kicker. Those were the days of 33 players, and peaking at 38 in 1960. But then 35 again. So, difficult to have a specialist like that. Same applies to long snapper.

And punter.