Anders Carlson

[Voyageur]

Carlson's kicks in the preseason game, and on Family Night were wobbly, and even though good, inconsistent with leg strength. I think this is bothering the coaching staff. It should. The wheels will come off that bus again I'm afraid.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Carlson's kicks in the preseason game, and on Family Night were wobbly, and even though good, inconsistent with leg strength. I think this is bothering the coaching staff. It should. The wheels will come off that bus again I'm afraid.

Yeah it seems the narrative is that he has a very strong leg but accuracy problems. This should be fixable but he looks like the same kicker from last season. It's a shame because K is such an important position. I'd say stick it out with him for one more year rather than taking Joseph, but I'm not so sure. The two will compete until final cutdown day and it's a toss up. could be they go with Joseph just because of his experience, and try the draft again next year.

Other than that, Gluten is limited to bringing on retreads, probably with the same results. It's just gonna be a concern all season unless Bisaccia can pull something out of Carlson.

 

[gopkrs]

This is a potential super bowl year. I don't think we should be keeping a kicker who we hope will be better next year.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This is a potential super bowl year. I don't think we should be keeping a kicker who we hope will be better next year.

I agree with you, but what is the alternative? It's Joseph and the two are about the same. Joseph has kicked better in camp, slightly better. The argument for Joseph then is that he's got more experience. If that's the only difference, then Joseph is the guy. But expectations for kicking success are about the same between the two. In that case, I'd take Carlson. If he can be coached up, he's the better long-term solution. Joseph is a known quantity.

What's your opinion on who should be the kicker - Carlson, Joseph, or "keep looking". I think those are the only options.

 

[Voyageur]

I agree with you, but what is the alternative? It's Joseph and the two are about the same. Joseph has kicked better in camp, slightly better. The argument for Joseph then is that he's got more experience. If that's the only difference, then Joseph is the guy. But expectations for kicking success are about the same between the two. In that case, I'd take Carlson. If he can be coached up, he's the better long-term solution. Joseph is a known quantity.

What's your opinion on who should be the kicker - Carlson, Joseph, or "keep looking". I think those are the only options.

You're right. What are the options? They have to make a decision, and hope it's the right one. But, I'd always keep the door open to finding someone you can bring in as the season progresses.

I think they should have been more pro-active in looking for someone since the end of last season. I'm surprised they weren't in the bidding for the kid who went to the Lions to be honest.

 

[gopkrs]

The argument for Joseph is that he is kicking the ball through the middle of the goalposts and Anders hardly makes it. We want consistency this year. If we are looking for someone to hit a 60 yarder to win a playoff game; we are asking too much with what is available. If you want to bring in another kicker for the last month...OK...but w/o Carlson imo. One on one with Joseph.

 

[Poppa San]

but what is the alternative?

Is there a kicking competition is another camp? Perhaps a team needing a #4-5 developmental WR? There are probably about 60 kickers in camps looking to land one of 32 jobs.

 

[sschind]

Carlson's kicks in the preseason game, and on Family Night were wobbly, and even though good, inconsistent with leg strength. I think this is bothering the coaching staff. It should. The wheels will come off that bus again I'm afraid.

When I said I haven't seen anything that would make me choose Joseph over Carlson this is the kind of stuff I meant. This and kicks not being down the center. I haven't noticed this but I haven't really been watching. The coaches have and if its true I think thats probably what bothers them like you said. If the only difference was just the numbers I think Carlson wins the job but if Joseph is making solid kicks while Carlson's are ugly that might be enough for the coaches to switch horses.

 

[Pkrjones]

With the kickoff rules changed drastically this year there is not much need for a "big leg", imho.

Adopt the philosophy of going for the 1st down unless the FG try is 45 yds or less. Odds of 3 pts goes way up, the offense knows they have 4 tries between the 50-30 yd lines.

Whether it's Joseph or somebody else, find the most accurate, "average leg" kicker & roll with them. Well placed directional kick offs, close to 100% accuracy on XP's & shorter FG's.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You're right. What are the options? They have to make a decision, and hope it's the right one. But, I'd always keep the door open to finding someone you can bring in as the season progresses.

I think they should have been more pro-active in looking for someone since the end of last season. I'm surprised they weren't in the bidding for the kid who went to the Lions to be honest.

True. Gluten could have done more to deal with K in the offseason. Well, maybe he has done more and we just don't know, very possible. Given the paper-thin difference between Carlson and Joseph, I'd stick with Carlson but it hardly matters for the upcoming season.

And yeah, it's always possible someone becomes available during the year. It's happened before, and is likely to happen if either Carlson or Joseph struggles.

Ideally Carlson overcomes his first-year blues and becomes the guy. That has happened before as well.

 

[Heyjoe4]

With the kickoff rules changed drastically this year there is not much need for a "big leg", imho.

Adopt the philosophy of going for the 1st down unless the FG try is 45 yds or less. Odds of 3 pts goes way up, the offense knows they have 4 tries between the 50-30 yd lines.

Whether it's Joseph or somebody else, find the most accurate, "average leg" kicker & roll with them. Well placed directional kick offs, close to 100% accuracy on XP's & shorter FG's.

Good point. Guys with strong legs seem to have more trouble with accuracy, and the new KO rules values accuracy over strength. Maybe the decision between Carlson and Joseph won't have much impact.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't remember this "captain", maybe he was before my time. But in a way, I know exactly who you're talking about, because I've run into a lot of those over the yers, and yeah - it only takes one of them to drag the whole board down into the mud.

There's another Packer board out there that I don't think anyone here is on, and I don't even participate with anymore. I've been there about 12 yearas, IFRC. It's got just one guy on there (a retired drill sergeanrt, I thnk) who only wants to fight people who disagree with him, on basically any single thing. No matter what the topic, there's never any "well, I think I'm right, but maybe I'm not, so I guess we just disagree". It's simply, "if you disagree with me, you're a despicable idiot", and then he attacks and insults the other poster viciously and relentlessly. From the sound of it, it's much worse than the captain guy, but still follows the same pattern.

It's completely shaped the entire tone of the board. It doesn't matter what the topic is; if you disagree with him about trading Rodgers, or whether the salary cap is a real thing that teams have to take into consideration when signing contracts, you're a moron - and a dozen other things that are probably worse. He doesn't even try to hide it, he just freely admits that all he wants to do is to fight people who disagree with him.

Abd the thing is, there are some really good people there, and very knowledgable football fans. You can learn a hell of lot from that group of people. But there's this rain cloud hangiong over every conversation, because every single step someoe takes, you never know if you're about to take a bullet from a sniper and sudeenly find yourself in a fire fight. Nobody can relax, or feel comfortable with people. There's just no fun there. Every single thing is going to be a fight, or at least some sort of insult.

And it's really just that one guy who's been the driving force behind that.

It's one of the things I really like about this board. People here value behaving like grownups (or at least, the Packer fans do). We may disagree, but we all understand that there are plenty of other places for us to fight if we like, and this is not the right board for that. People here show respect for people who disagree with them.

Imo much of it is the Regulars in here are generally older. There’s lots of retired, middle aged call it 50ish and guys n gals over 30yrs. I think most would agree there’s a ton of combined experience. Theres like 50 regulars (posters) that combined strength could probably come together and run a team. Maybe not a championship team but we’d compete with Chicago

I’m not sure what will fix our Kicking issues other than time. My hope is with each passing year Carlson gets a smidge better. That would be an expectation anyway.

 

[OldSchool101]

Greg Joseph is close to Crosby. Like 1% difference on FG career.
However Crosby was slightly more consistent by a couple % on XPM
I also liked that Crosby kicked more of his outdoors.
Joseph is a C+ B- and would suffice.
I really don’t think there would be much issue with him he’s a safer bet short term. Greg is also a perfect 2/2 FG and 12/12 XPM in Postseason. Those are all XPM after the distance back adjustment some years ago.
Greg doesn’t flinch when the game gets big.

As far as Carlson. I do question Carlsons confidence a little and XPA should be near automatic at a 93% + area made. Carlson was under 90% XPM and under 80% FG made in postseason. 87% should be FG% not a XPM% etc. Thats a concern when a team is in Win now mode and those are thresholds that should be cause for concern if we get 4-5 games in and they aren’t met (again)

I have no problem whatsoever with Carlson for a few games to see where he’s at. I also have no problem putting Joseph on PS in the wings.

IMO I value a guy that is automatic inside 45 and can hit inside 55 yards in a pinch over a guy that has potential of a 60+ yarder etc. Both are great but if I had to choose give me the better K inside 45

 

[mradtke66]

IMO I value a guy that is automatic inside 45 and can hit inside 55 yards in a pinch over a guy that has potential of a 60+ yarder etc. Both are great but if I had to choose give me the better K inside 45

I'm trying to find more stats, but I think "automatic within 45" is a higher bar that you realize. I've only found a single reddit post that computed averages from 18 yards and higher from 2009-2019 for all kickers. Giving the benefit of the doubt that this poster counted accurately and can compute a mean properly:

44 yards was the longest distance kick with a make percentage over 80%. 45 yards was 78.8%.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Thirteen Below]

I think Carlson has just about worn out his welcome. Even though he made his kicks yesterday in ideal weather conditions, he almost shaved the uprights.

That's the big takeaway from Saturday's kicking trials, I think. Or certainly one of the two.

One of Carlson's two kicks flew straight and true just inside the left upright, and the other one was swinging well wide to the right before it hooked just inside the right upright. They each came within a foot or so of missing.

The width of the uprights is 18'6". If the width was 16', Carlson would have been 0 for 2.

If the width of the uprights was 5', Joseph would have still been 1 for 1.

Too many of his kicks just barely make it inside the uprights. Yeah, I know, they still count for the same number of points, but how many of those kicks are going to be good in the wind at Lambeau, Soldier Field, or Levis Stadium come November, December, and January?

No consistency with him. One time he's wide right and the next time he's wide left or barely sneaks it around an upright. He just doesn't seem to be showing much improvement over a poor rookie season.

And that's the really frustrating thing - there's no consistency even with his misses.

Some kickers have a pattern; they tend to miss to the right or the left.... they usually hook, or slice....he just misses all over the place. When you consistently miss to one side or the other, there's often a technical flaw or some error in your fundamentals that can be corrected with a good coach. But his technical flaw is that he just misses all over the place.

It's not like a coach can sit him down and say, "here, if you just change this thing or that thing about the way you swing your foot or the way you're hitting the ball, your kicks will fly straight". He's just inaccurate; he just can't hit that 18.5 foot target.

If the uprights were 22' feet apart, he'd be an all-pro. But in a league where then uprights are 18 and a half feet apart, the guy is just unreliable.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Is there a kicking competition is another camp? Perhaps a team needing a #4-5 developmental WR? There are probably about 60 kickers in camps looking to land one of 32 jobs.

Good point. There are close to 50-60 guys trying to land a kicking gig. Only 32 spots. Gotta believe Gluten is keeping a close eye on this.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's the big takeaway from Saturday's kicking trials, I think. Or certainly one of the two.

One of Carlson's two kicks flew straight and true just inside the left upright, and the other one was swinging well wide to the right before it hooked just inside the right upright. They each came within a foot or so of missing.

The width of the uprights is 18'6". If the width was 16', Carlson would have been 0 for 2.

If the width of the uprights was 5', Joseph would have still been 1 for 1.

Too many of his kicks just barely make it inside the uprights. Yeah, I know, they still count for the same number of points, but how many of those kicks are going to be good in the wind at Lambeau, Soldier Field, or Levis Stadium come November, December, and January?






And that's the really frustrating thing - there's no consistency even with his misses.

Some kickers have a pattern; they tend to miss to the right or the left.... they usually hook, or slice....he just misses all over the place. When you consistently miss to one side or the other, there's often a technical flaw or some error in your fundamentals that can be corrected with a good coach. But his technical flaw is that he just misses all over the place.

It's not like a coach can sit him down and say, "here, if you just change this thing or that thing about the way you swing your foot or the way you're hitting the ball, your kicks will fly straight". He's just inaccurate; he just can't hit that 18.5 foot target.

If the uprights were 22' feet apart, he'd be an all-pro. But in a league where then uprights are 18 and a half feet apart, the guy is just unreliable.

No consistency, even on the misses. Oy vey, not exactly a ringing endorsement. But yeah we saw that all last year. He kicks to the right, he kicks to the left. How about down the middle once in a while? Maybe Joseph is the guy. I give up, above my pay grade.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm trying to find more stats, but I think "automatic within 45" is a higher bar that you realize. I've only found a single reddit post that computed averages from 18 yards and higher from 2009-2019 for all kickers. Giving the benefit of the doubt that this poster counted accurately and can compute a mean properly:

44 yards was the longest distance kick with a make percentage over 80%. 45 yards was 78.8%.

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Last season taking ALL cumulative Kicks. The league was 95.6% <40 yards. I doubt that dropped much <45yards.. maybe a couple %?
Let’s call it 93.6%. That’s Average

So that said when I say “automatic” for me that doesn’t mean 100%. I’m thinking these guys are human, so automatic to me for a Kicker is in that 95%+. You get me 96/100 Kicks and I’ll personally nickname you
“Mr. Automatic”.

I absolutely want automatic inside 45 though. We certainly shouldn’t be hovering around 87% for a 33 yard XPM and idc if you live in Antarctica in January. Joseph was 94.7% or about average XPM.
Daniel Carlson, his brother, was 100% XPM for the 2023 season. It’s not impossible. 8 teams had a perfect 100% on XPA across an entire season.
25% of the league never missed one.
75% of the NFL (24 Kickers)>= 91.4%

Joseph was not great. But by my estimation? he can push in 87% Kicks inside ~47 yards (Carlson’s XPM %)

Ok I get it we value we spent a draft pick, but give him 5-6 games and then move on. Are we afraid someone would steal Carlson off PS? If he needs time if that’s truly the issue? stash him and make him earn it. Give him a year on PS and if he’s not a 90% Kicker by 2025 move on.

 

[mradtke66]

Last season taking ALL cumulative Kicks. The league was 95.6% <40 yards. I doubt that dropped much <45yards.. maybe a couple %?
Let’s call it 93.6%.

I'd have to see data to prove it your idea. The dataset, which again, is old but the best I can find, shows an expected downward trend (with some really funny hiccups. 33 yards: 94%. 34 yards: 86%. 35 yards: 90%).

Similarly, the numbers don't appear to have significantly changed. Using the same data set I provided and some rudimentary Excel, all kicks under 45 yards had a success rate of 90.1%. 40 yards and in were at 92.5%. And with all that success, just 40 yarders have a 85.2% success rate. 45 yarders are down 78.8%. In other words, those relatively easy 18-35 yard kicks are doing a lot of heavy lifting to bring up the average.

In aggregate, your feeling is close, but only in aggregate.

39 yards and closer, he was perfect, exceeding the NFL average.

40-49 yards, he was 50%. NFL average is 77%. 2 missed kicks off of average.

50-62 yards, he was 60%, NFL average is 63%. I'd call that a wash between lower sample size. (I capped it at 62 as the rates plummet after that and consider including them disingenuous. Especially since I don't think he attempted anything much over 50 yards? If we relax this to all 50+ kicks, the NFL average drops and he looks better by comparison)

To be clear: I'm not defending Carson, I'm picking on your argument which seems to be built more on intuition rather than data. I'm not invested in him beyond letting him try to work through his issues. I do and don't think kickers are easily replaced and my only worry if for him to be his brother and figure it all out the year after we cut him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Packers regular season kicker might not even currently be on the team.

There are plenty of teams that currently have 2 kickers, so there will no doubt be more kickers available as we get closer to Sept.

Who are the best kickers likely to be cut this year?

Update: Washington released Ramiz Ahmed, but Dan Quinn said there is still an open competition at the position After parting with kicker Joey Slye this offseason, Washington officially entered into...

www.hogshaven.com

 

[Poppa San]

The Packers regular season kicker might not even currently be on the team.

There are plenty of teams that currently have 2 kickers, so there will no doubt be more kickers available as we get closer to Sept.

Who are the best kickers likely to be cut this year?

Update: Washington released Ramiz Ahmed, but Dan Quinn said there is still an open competition at the position After parting with kicker Joey Slye this offseason, Washington officially entered into...

www.hogshaven.com

From the article
"Ryland, meanwhile, is a University of Maryland product, taken in the 4th round of the 2023 draft. Ryland was the Pats starter, but he wasn’t very good, making just 64% of his field goals."
I don't feel so bad about AC after seeing this. We 'wasted' our 4th round pick on Colby Wooden.

 

[thequick12]

CW magically pissed off just about everyone on here. You didn't miss anything.

He may have pissed you guys off but to say nothing was missed is far fetched

Captain was very knowledgeable and took the time to do thorough research. He was definitely an informational asset to the forum

 

[Poppa San]

He may have pissed you guys off but to say nothing was missed is far fetched

Captain was very knowledgeable and took the time to do thorough research. He was definitely an informational asset to the forum

His entire thing was it had to be proven. Love wasn't going to be good until he was good then Cap'n would finally give him his due. Until Love proved it he was a wasted pick. Potential was not in CWs vocabulary only evidence.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'd have to see data to prove it your idea.

2023 NFL Kicking | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2023 NFL Kicking Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

If you don’t want to believe me that’s fine. Spend the time I did to compile the data. It’s right here. I just used 2023 because I feel that’s pretty relevant.

Also pay attention to Kickers inside 40
They are almost perfect inside <30
Would you really expect them to be that much worse at 33? Thats an XPA
distance. Like I said you’ll see 24 Kickers are 91%+ at 33 yards. 1/3 of those never missed an XPM (8). Another 1/3 only missed 1 XPA all season. That alone is 50% of the league.
The only way 5 XPA misses (Carlson) are acceptable is if you’re trying 100+ times, which doesn’t exist. Jake Moody led the league in attempts with 61 in 2023. He made 60/61. He ranks #9 due to a volume tiebreaker. He missed 1 XPA but had the most attempts so highest %.
Justin Tucker didn’t even break the top 10 XPM% and he was over 98% made. Thats just how accurate these guys are today. All due respect I think Reddit needs to update their info so I’m going to call bluff on that. I don’t believe other peoples math so I do my own research.

I know 87% doesn’t sound that bad for XPM without looking, but Carlson was with the bottom 25% of the league last year. Now this isn’t a beat up on Carlson post and I realize it sounds that way, because the data is irrefutable and makes him look bad. It’s not me making him look bad I’m just posting information. I’d love nothing more than to report that he’s a 99% or 100% from 33 and just needs to refine from 40 or 45 yards. Not the case he’s poor from all standards.

 

[OldSchool101]

Almost all the great Kickers are great from 33 yards. Very few exceptions. Gotta hit from XPA range or the rest of the story only gets worse