Anders Carlson

[gopkrs]

Bill Bellichek made an interesting comment on the new KO rule. He said he'd kick it out of the end zone and let the opponent start at the 30. There are a lot of good returners and he'd rather not take a chance of kicking between the goal line and the 5 or 10 yard line. I don't know that I agree but it's an interesting point.

My guess is that against Nixon, most teams will try and kick out of the end zone. Well at least least with kickers capable of doing that.

Another thing to consider is that kickers are rarely asked to place a ball just inside the field of play. I'm sure some of them either are or will be good at this. As we've learned, each kicker is different.

If nothing else the rule adds a bit of excitement to an ordinarily dull play.

If everyone kicks it so the other team has it on the 30; I could see a rule change next year to put the ball on the 40.

 

[milani]

If/when he bangs a 64 yd game winner Packer Nation will embrace him.

But if he misses a 41 yarder in the playoffs in a winnable game he will be the goat.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If everyone kicks it so the other team has it on the 30; I could see a rule change next year to put the ball on the 40.

I think Bellichek said as much. If the spot for a touchback was on the 35 or 40, then it would make sense to kick short and allow a return.

I'm not that familiar with the rule, where the players line up. It does sound interesting.

 

[OldSchool101]

If/when he bangs a 64 yd game winner Packer Nation will embrace him.

Yes.
Heck, I’ll embrace him when he goes back to back games making all his XPA

 

[OldSchool101]

If everyone kicks it so the other team has it on the 30; I could see a rule change next year to put the ball on the 40.

While I respect Bill, I only agree with that if it’s a KR that is in that top 5-10 (possibly not even that) area in proficiency in the league or I have good ST coverage (call it top 50%)
Nixon might be a rare but good example to Just kick it in the Paint. He averaged over 27.+ per return last year (different rules)

The other are bottom Half of league Returners? Call it the bottom 20? I’m 100% telling my Kicker to try to plop it between the 5 and the Paint. Ideally Kicks would land on the 1 yard line, but to avoid the Paint I’d suggest between just inside the 5 yard line.

The next BEST 6 KR (#9-14) averaged 22.16 yards per return. That makes up the top 14 qualifiers from 2023. So going back decades of data, The KR over 25 yards average with adequate qualifying Numbers often number less than 10 players.

Why would I Kick to a guy averaging 22 or 20 or 18 yards per return and spot him the 30?

Remember the landing zone is between the 0-20 yard line

• 
  Any kick that hits in the landing zone - must be returned
• Any kick that hits in the landing zone and then goes into the end zone – must be returned or downed by receiving team – if downed then touchback to B20 yard line

 

[gopkrs]

While I respect Bill, I only agree with that if it’s a KR that is in that top 5-10 (possibly not even that) area in proficiency in the league or I have good ST coverage (call it top 50%)
Nixon is a good example to Just kick it in the Paint. He averaged over 27.+ per return. IF he catches it at the 3 yard line last year he’d averaged past the 30. Plu s you give him a free opportunity to score points.

The other are bottom Half of league Returners? Call it the bottom 20? I’m 100% telling my Kicker to try to plop it between the 5 and the Paint. Ideally the 2 yard line.

- Only 8 returners averaged over 25.0 per return in 2023. That’s fairly normal

The next BEST 6 KR (#9-14) averaged 22.16 yards per return. That makes up the top 14 qualifiers from 2023. So going back decades of data, The KR over 25 yards average with adequate qualifying Numbers often number less than 10 players.

Why would I Kick to a guy averaging 22 or 20 or 18 yards per return and spot him the 30? No Sir, Those guys get to start from inside the 5 and they’ll typically start from the ~25 +-

Give a team 5+ yards benefit per KO? That can be 30 yards or more of free bonus yards.

Nobody really knows what is going to happen as far as returns are concerned. But it is such a different setup that you cannot use previous years return yardage as examples. I'm thinking taking the ball out to the 25 or 30 will be normal. Although they will be kicking it high as they can. And if that's the case; might as well kick it into the endzone.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nobody really knows what is going to happen as far as returns are concerned. But it is such a different setup that you cannot use previous years return yardage as examples. I'm thinking taking the ball out to the 25 or 30 will be normal. Although they will be kicking it high as they can. And if that's the case; might as well kick it into the endzone.

That’s true we will know more once the stats come in. Some of the unknowns will be what will be the average Kickoff return yards THIS year. 25 yard returns were a pretty good mark until now. However the Coverage team is further up but also must wait until the ball makes contact to pursue.
All kicking team players other than the kicker will line up with one foot on the receiving team’s B40 yard line

Still though, these rules do NOT change the fact that a ball which lands inside the 5 rarely does not make the Paint unless it’s caught. If it doesn’t get returned Or Rolls onto the Paint? they lose 5 full yards this year. Starts at the 20 instead of last years 25.
-5 yards per Kick adds up real quick.

If we boot it into paint it’s automatic 30 yard line or +5 off last season. I’d have my Kicker ideally aim between the 0-5 unless it’s one of the top KR in the league. If it’s anywhere near the paint but outside it?? The KR has to know he’s about to lose potentially -10 yards as compared to Paint. When they catch it they lose .5 seconds securing it and often taking a step backwards. I’d want my opponent contemplating that and the Kickoff hitting the 1-3 yard line. Thats a nightmare decision to make to catch it at the 1 because 1” is now a critical 10 yard swing. Might as well be a -10 penalty if it’s not caught immediately.

The other aspect is because of new Kickoff positioning, the coverage unit will be confronting the returner just inside 20 and it won’t be just a Gunner. It’s potentially 10 guys standing around because they came out of the sprint blocks like Bosa. I’d have my guys line up like a track meet at the opponent 40 and have a Verbal Signal to Shoot out like it’s the Combine 40 cannonball

 

[gopkrs]

I don't think you have all ten tacklers going down on a line. The runner gets through and he's gone.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't think you have all ten tacklers going down on a line. The runner gets through and he's gone.

Um ok not sure how to respond to that one. lol

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes.
Heck, I’ll embrace him when he goes back to back games making all his XPA

Agreed. And it will be progress when we don't have to offer a ritualistic sacrifice every time he attempts an XP.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That’s true we will know more once the stats come in. Some of the unknowns will be what will be the average Kickoff return yards THIS year. 25 yard returns were a pretty good mark until now. However the Coverage team is further up but also must wait until the ball makes contact to pursue.
All kicking team players other than the kicker will line up with one foot on the receiving team’s B40 yard line

Still though, these rules do NOT change the fact that a ball which lands inside the 5 rarely does not make the Paint unless it’s caught. If it doesn’t get returned Or Rolls onto the Paint? they lose 5 full yards this year. Starts at the 20 instead of last years 25.
-5 yards per Kick adds up real quick.

If we boot it into paint it’s automatic 30 yard line or +5 off last season. I’d have my Kicker ideally aim between the 0-5 unless it’s one of the top KR in the league. If it’s anywhere near the paint but outside it?? The KR has to know he’s about to lose potentially -10 yards as compared to Paint. When they catch it they lose .5 seconds securing it and often taking a step backwards. I’d want my opponent contemplating that and the Kickoff hitting the 1-3 yard line. Thats a nightmare decision to make to catch it at the 1 because 1” is now a critical 10 yard swing. Might as well be a -10 penalty if it’s not caught immediately.

The other aspect is because of new Kickoff positioning, the coverage unit will be confronting the returner just inside 20 and it won’t be just a Gunner. It’s potentially 10 guys standing around because they came out of the sprint blocks like Bosa. I’d have my guys line up like a track meet at the opponent 40 and have a Verbal Signal to Shoot out like it’s the Combine 40 cannonball

I'm really confused by these rules. I'll figure it out once the game starts. Just a few questions, and thanks for the info:

- Do the kicking team players lined up at the receiving team 40 have to wait to move until the ball is caught (if it's returned)?

- Where do the receiving team players other than the returner line up? It's somewhere inside their 40, probably the 20. not sure.

- If the kick goes into the end zone, does the returner have the option to return?

- Outside the end zone, in the field of play, can the returner fair catch the ball?

Thanks!

 

[gopkrs]

I’d have my guys line up like a track meet at the opponent 40 and have a Verbal Signal to Shoot out like it’s the Combine 40 cannonball

Sounds like you are saying just have them all run straight ahead and get there is fast as they can.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Although they will be kicking it high as they can

I thought that at first too, but since the 10 kicking team players cannot move until the ball hits the ground or player in the landing zone or the end zone, I actually think a hard to handle line drive over the heads of everyone but the returner(s), might be the better option. Floating one up gives the returner more time to make their decision and get under the ball, possibly with a running start.

 

[Pkrjones]

I'm really confused by these rules. I'll figure it out once the game starts. Just a few questions, and thanks for the info:

- Do the kicking team players lined up at the receiving team 40 have to wait to move until the ball is caught (if it's returned)?

- Where do the receiving team players other than the returner line up? It's somewhere inside their 40, probably the 20. not sure.

- If the kick goes into the end zone, does the returner have the option to return?

- Outside the end zone, in the field of play, can the returner fair catch the ball?

Thanks!

New Dynamic Kickoff Rule Explainer | NFL Football Operations

operations.nfl.com

Players may move when ball is touched by returner OR touches the ground. Well placed kick not towards returner & that doesn't sqib out of bounds should be the optimum desired kickoff.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

New Dynamic Kickoff Rule Explainer | NFL Football Operations

operations.nfl.com

I'm still a bit confused by the onside kick, which appears to only be allowed in the 4th Q. I highlighted the confusing (for me) part. What is the "setup zone" when an onside kick is declared by the kicking team? While it states "current onside kickoff rules would apply", which in itself is a really poorly worded statement, is the "setup zone" the old rules or new rules?

• Onside kick:
  • 4th quarter begins, the team trailing has the opportunity to declare an onside kick to the officials
  • Current onside kickoff rules would apply. If onside kick goes beyond the setup zone untouched, kicking team penalized for UNS; return team would start the drive at the A20 yard line

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm really confused by these rules. I'll figure it out once the game starts. Just a few questions, and thanks for the info:

- Do the kicking team players lined up at the receiving team 40 have to wait to move until the ball is caught (if it's returned)?

- Where do the receiving team players other than the returner line up? It's somewhere inside their 40, probably the 20. not sure.

- If the kick goes into the end zone, does the returner have the option to return?

- Outside the end zone, in the field of play, can the returner fair catch the ball?

Thanks!

Yes the kicking team has to wait until it the ball makes contact with earth or a player.

The receiving team has to line up between the 35 and … hold on here’s the rules link. It’s just too much to type and I’d make a mistake along the way. Here it is Joe

New Dynamic Kickoff Rule Explainer | NFL Football Operations

operations.nfl.com

Really a primary focus was to promote returns and reduce high impact injuries by keeping players closer together during those returns. If a team elects to give their opponent the ball on the 30 regular? They’ll give up just 1.3 yards per KO across the preseason averages. The average starting Field Position is 28.7 yards in Preseason 2024 after applying the new KO rules.

On 420 attempts across 48 contests there’s been 0 TD’s. (1 returned to the 4 yard line) so maybe there’s some logic to kicking it in the paint after all. I mean if it gives up 1.3 yards, but avoids any % chance of a TD against better quality returns. I can see that it only gives up 11 yards per contest (based on 8.75 KR attempts per contest so far).

 

[Heyjoe4]

New Dynamic Kickoff Rule Explainer | NFL Football Operations

operations.nfl.com

Players may move when ball is touched by returner OR touches the ground. Well placed kick not towards returner & that doesn't sqib out of bounds should be the optimum desired kickoff.

My thanks to you and Old School for your answers and the links. Using the PS as a guide, and with average starting position at the 28.7, I'd be tempted to do what Bellichek suggested and kick it into the end zone. The Packers have the best kick returner in the NFL in Nixon (well, under the old rules). Opponents will most likely kick the ball out of the end zone and accept a 30 yd line starting position. Just a guess.