49ers at Packers Pre-game Thread

[Voyageur]

I think the injury questions surrounding the 49ers may be a bit over exaggerated to be honest. Limited practice on Wednesday, and a rest day don't translate into a guy not being out there on Sunday. It's just a question mark being put behind their name, and I think a lot of teams use it as a point of confusion for the opposition. It forces them to diversify what they will do on Sunday, depending on who takes the field against them. I think Kittle, McCaffery, and Purdy will all be on the field when the 49ers offense goes out there. If even one is on the shelf, I'd be surprised.

We're playing a bit short at CB with Jaire probably out. But, beyond that, I think everyone is pretty much a go for the game. Forget Marshawn for the year. He's been battling injury and health issues that will probably keep him out until the ramp up to next year.

My biggest concern is that the Packers still don't have the killer instinct in them. As soon as they get any lead, it's like Matt pulls in the horns, and tries to finesse their way through the rest of the game, just being satisfied with a W. We've been lucky 3 out of the last 4 weeks, and eventually that luck will turn on you.

I think the key to this win is whether or not Love throws the ball to people other than Watson on key plays. After one drop by Doubs this past week, he never even bothered to look in his direction after that, even though there were times he was the obvious choice to where the ball should go. Love still has a lot to learn, and this is at the top of the list. You spread the ball around.

I think our RBs can match up with the 49ers, despite McCaffery. Jacobs can pretty much be an offset. Especially if they don't work him to death early on, trying to get that first score. It's got to be about team, so Josh still has his legs going into the 4th quarter.

The 49ers are the 6th best defense, and the Packers 12th, against both pass and rush. Both teams have given up 25 TDs. I see it as a stand off, with the team getting the upper hand having one more take away when the game ends.

I won't even pick this one until the middle of Sunday morning. It's a tough one, especially since the 49ers have a jinx on the Packers that's similar to the one the Packers have over the Bears.

 

[Magooch]

I think Kittle, McCaffery, and Purdy will all be on the field when the 49ers offense goes out there. If even one is on the shelf, I'd be surprised.

I suspect all three of them will go too (although I wonder if Purdy will be somewhat limited), but the bigger X-factor for me is Bosa. He didn't practice at all today, and it sounds like it's really up in the air for the weekend. IMO, Bosa is a bigger loss than anyone on offense, save for maybe Purdy. Without him their pass rush is extremely limited.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Obviously we're in better shape right now record-wise compared to this point last season, but I think most would probably agree with me that it feels like we really haven't got everything dialed quite in yet and that it still largely feels like we're still looking to find our footing. Just a kind of uneven team in many ways.

If I have to be honest with myself, the Packers are not as good as their record.

It turns out, that they have had a pretty soft schedule. Their 7 wins are against average (Texans & Cardinals) to below ave. teams (Bears, Colts, Jags, Titans, Rams).

They caught the Rams and Texans at a time when they were very banged up.

Their 3 loses were against playoff teams (Eagles, Lions, Vikings). The combined records of the teams they beat; 31-42.

The good news, the Packers remaining schedule (7 games), besides the Lions and Vikings, is by no means a juggernaut. (49'ers, Dolphins, Seahawks, Saints, Bears).

All that said, if the Packers want to advance beyond the 1st round of the playoffs, they are going to have to improve quite a bit.

 

[Magooch]

Yeah, that's about where my gut says too. Like, if I take off the Packer-glasses....I think overall we're a slightly above-average team, but one that's a little streaky, a little inconsistent. High ceiling, low floor, if you will - on a good day we can hang with good teams; on a bad day we can be beat by bad ones. It's really still a "could go either way" type of situation (and season on the whole) for me.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say we're probably a top-10 team, but closer to 10 than top-5, for instance. Off the top of my head, all things being equal I'd probably bet on the following teams being able to beat us more often than not: Detroit, KC, Philly, Minnesota, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, Baltimore...and would put it probably 50-50 with teams like SF, Washington, Denver, Seattle, and two that we beat in Arizona and LA Rams. For teams that I'd consistently favor us over, that puts us more or less in the middle of the pack. But like I said - I wouldn't be surprised if a win here serves as the springboard to us finally starting to feel like we've got things figured out.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Given the youth of the Packers and the state of the roster going into 2025 (very few key Free agents), I am very optimistic about the team moving forward.

The remaining 7+ playoff game(s) are learning and growing moments for this roster. It would take quite a bit of growth in the next seven weeks for the Packers to contend with the Lions, who I would say is the odds on favorite to represent the NFC in the SB.

The Packers are a team that could very easily be 5-5 or even 4-6. Only 2 of their wins (Titans and Cardinals) were wins greater than 1 score. Those 5 wins that were by less than 1 score, weren't decided until the final minutes of the game.

 

[gopkrs]

If I have to be honest with myself, the Packers are not as good as their record.

They have not pulled it all together yet.

 

[OldSchool101]

Or, he could just pass it to Kraft when he is open. Watson makes a terrific catch in double coverage here, but Kraft is absolutely wide open for a nice chunk play. He just didn't throw t to him.

Yeah I missed that play but that’s a good shot. Now I know the play worked out. However imo Kraft catches that and gets within 5-10 yards of Watson before being taken down. Sounds trivial by its lonesome. The reason targeting Kraft is not trivial is that the probability of an INT to Kraft is about 0% there. We’ve been talking about this all year now. The probability of an INT to Watson is about ~15-20% in my estimation. It’s realistic, lower, but unnecessary. Just take the medium gainer and move the chains and give Kraft an opportunity to use his rumbling style to make up the difference. By staying on his feet and using his stiff arm there’s a small probability he achieved Watson yardage or scores.

Also shorter throw into the open = higher % reception. Love throwing to Kraft has about an 80% success rate but that throw to Watson is at best a 50/50 ball.

Anyway, again, the Packers almost catch 49'ers at a good time.

I noticed that also.
I do really like the Thursday report I think it’s more telling. Too many guys rest on Wed it’s harder to depict the outcome.
Imo if they DNP on both Wed/Thurs it spells will not play
But yeah point taken on that list. Its about the best we could hope for

 

[El Guapo]

The 49ers said that both Joey Bosa and Trent Williams likely won't practice at all (similar to last week) as they nurse injuries. Neither got more hurt in Sunday's game. Expect that both will also play against the Packers.

It's pretty clear at the end of the article about both players: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42511334/49ers-te-george-kittle-hamstring-vows-play-vs-packers

 

[OldSchool101]

I see our Packers team as “stuck on a plateau” We’ve been fortunate to Win the close ones. In Two of our losses,
it just felt like a game of catch-up. The scores were close but we never really controlled the game either.
All that said, the mere fact that we’re having to base our hope on their players being injured tells a story. We’re probably more of a 6-4 strength team and I think the 49ers are also. We’re actually probably one of the closest matchups this week.

Another point is this. We have become accustomed to losing to the 49ers more often than not. I think that plays into our psychology of meeting them. We become timid like a QB that got knocked around pretty good last few meetings. Yet every year teams improve and regress. This 49ers team is NOT as potent as previous years imo. I suppose one could argue that holds true for GB. If we were in Santa Clara I’d give the 49ers a 2-point Favorite. In Lambeau? I think it’s a dead EVEN lock at this juncture.

I put the deciding factor on Kittle. He was out last week and he is one of their top 2 playmakers. If he plays? SF is leaning a 1.5-point favorite

 

[Krabs]

And he airmailed one to Kraft that resulted in that pick.

Pretty sure on the 1st Watson catch (where he had 3 guys around him) that on the other side of the field Doubs was wide open.

Yep, that was another one. Brady pointed that one out. Love has to do a better job of seeing what the defense gives him.

 

[tynimiller]

I see our Packers team as “stuck on a plateau” We’ve been fortunate to Win the close ones. In Two of our losses,
it just felt like a game of catch-up. The scores were close but we never really controlled the game either.
All that said, the mere fact that we’re having to base our hope on their players being injured tells a story. We’re probably more of a 6-4 strength team and I think the 49ers are also. We’re actually probably one of the closest matchups this week.

Another point is this. We have become accustomed to losing to the 49ers more often than not. I think that plays into our psychology of meeting them. We become timid like a QB that got knocked around pretty good last few meetings. Yet every year teams improve and regress. This 49ers team is NOT as potent as previous years imo. I suppose one could argue that holds true for GB. If we were in Santa Clara I’d give the 49ers a 2-point Favorite. In Lambeau? I think it’s a dead EVEN lock at this juncture.

I put the deciding factor on Kittle. He was out last week and he is one of their top 2 playmakers. If he plays? SF is leaning a 1.5-point favorite

The good thing is a LOT of this Packers team doesn't have the long term impacts of Niner games. Sure, last year but for most that is it...and they showed the Niners in Santa Clara they can hang. This team may lose, but I don't think its a mental thing if we do...at least not from a psyche type stance.

Oddly enough I was more worried about the Bears out of the bye than I was this game...but that was also assuming Bosa, CM and Williams would likely not be playing - but it seems all may, just depends on what level.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just watched SF game against Seattle last week. Numero uno is spying Purdy… he is absolutely more prone to running once he rolls out. He’s really crafty at picking up chunk plays 8-12 yards and moving the chains. He’d a risk taker using his feet. Expect it.

The other aspect is this. Brock Purdy has never lost a game where SF Wins the Turnover battle. When they get a takeaway or two? They Win 100% of the time. Give Purdy a free possession or two and it’s a fact he will punish you you. Love MUST end his record INT streak Sunday. He can’t toy around jump balls against SF or we will lose. I’d rather see him throw it away than throw into double coverage.

 

[OldSchool101]

d they showed the Niners in Santa Clara they can hang. This team may lose, but I don't think it’s a mental thing if we do...at least not from a psyche type stance.

Sorry I didn’t clarify that either way. Let me clarify that. I was talking about US as in fans. We get timid in our ability to objectively call a game based on today’s information. Call it biased because of our history with SF49ers

 

[tynimiller]

Sorry I didn’t clarify that either way. Let me clarify that. I was talking about US as in fans. We get timid

Oh for sure real feeling there.

 

[OldSchool101]

Oh for sure real feeling there.

the optimist in me obviously wants us to Win. I also know we can and I think you do also. However to do that we need to improve a smidge each week. If we get into the Redzone this week I don’t want to see any risky backwards momentum plays, especially on short distance like 2nd n 4 or 3rd n 2 etc.

I know #10 threw a wild INT last week. Aside from that he played pretty good. If he plays like that and eliminated the INT? I think we can beat SF

 

[Schultz]

I am not going to jinx anything and talk about the Packer trainers. I think the same trainers that some fans were bashing in years past for all the injuries.

Anyway, again, the Packers almost catch 49'ers at a good time. Not quite as good of a moment as they caught the Rams, but still....not a fully potent 49'er team.

Injuries Give Packers Enormous Advantage Over 49ers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers might never be better positioned to beat the San Francisco 49ers than they will be on Sunday at Lambeau Field. While cor

www.si.com

There was a game a few years ago that SF was decimated with injuries that GB won. If memory serves 2020 season. Multiple score win and SF was I believe without starting QB, Jimmy G. RB, Wilson & Mostert WR, Samuel & Aiyuk & TE Kittle. Now that was an enormous advantage.

 

[Magooch]

There was a game a few years ago that SF was decimated with injuries that GB won. If memory serves 2020 season. Multiple score win and SF was I believe without starting QB, Jimmy G. RB, Wilson & Mostert WR, Samuel & Aiyuk & TE Kittle. Now that was an enormous advantage.

Yep, 2020 regular season.
Nick Mullins started at QB, Jerick McKinnon at RB. Ironically they still passed decently well against us.
9 rec for 184 yards and a TD to Richie James (who??)
3 rec and 52 yards to Ross Dwelley (who????)
We won 34-17.

Of course, they returned mostly to full-strength and Mostert absolutely steamrolled us in the playoffs. 29 carries for 220 yards and 4TD. Jimmy G played, but only had SIX completions (eight attempts, lol) for 77 yards.
37-20 loss.

 

[Voyageur]

Lots of good observations by everyone in this thread. So many possibilities related to the 49ers and Sunday's game.

Pokerbrat's post showing the records of teams the Packers played tells a story we need to heed. They've been beaten by teams that are above the mid point in the rankings, and only beaten teams that aren't contenders, and probably not even contenders to make the playoffs. As for the road ahead, we have some tough sledding in the division, and that's going to be huge.

 

[milani]

Well. Here we are facing off against our longtime nemesis again. Things have changed for both teams. The 49ers have been a bit banged up like us. Even Purdy has been a little gimpy after taking some punishment against the Seahawks. Both teams have slightly regressed since our last meeting. However I feel good about this one as this isn’t the 49ers level team we’ve faced in recent years either. They have had their struggles like us and it’s them traveling a couple thousand miles, not us.

Let’s do this!

If this game was a month ago I feel good since McCaffrey was not back. He is not 100% but he is still dangerous. Now that Kittle is back it gives us a lot more to contest. If Deebo and Ayouk are playing the 9ers could get back to where they were last year. They have lost close ones like us.

 

[milani]

Yep, 2020 regular season.
Nick Mullins started at QB, Jerick McKinnon at RB. Ironically they still passed decently well against us.
9 rec for 184 yards and a TD to Richie James (who??)
3 rec and 52 yards to Ross Dwelley (who????)
We won 34-17.

Of course, they returned mostly to full-strength and Mostert absolutely steamrolled us in the playoffs. 29 carries for 220 yards and 4TD. Jimmy G played, but only had SIX completions (eight attempts, lol) for 77 yards.
37-20 loss.

No fans in the stands either.

 

[OldSchool101]

No wonder we’re skeptical of the 49ers. They’ve eliminated us from the Playoffs 5 consecutive since 2013!
2013,2014,2020,2022,2024


Although we Won 4 of the previous 5 playoff contests from 1996-2002
1996,1997,1998,2002

 

[milani]

I really feel like this comes at a crucial point in our season, too.

Look back at last year...We were pretty up-and down to open the season, going 3-6 through week 10. But then Love really locked in and the whole team went on a solid run to close out the season and head into the playoffs. From week 11 onward, we went 6-2.

Obviously we're in better shape right now record-wise compared to this point last season, but I think most would probably agree with me that it feels like we really haven't got everything dialed quite in yet and that it still largely feels like we're still looking to find our footing. Just a kind of uneven team in many ways.

But with all that in mind...like I said above, SF are IMO a lot worse than recent years. But I still think psychologically this could be an extremely important game. Yes, it's just regular season, but they've knocked us out of the playoffs in 19, 21, and 23, and as best I can remember the last time we beat them was early in the 2021 regular season. And of course a win would be important not just for our possible playoff seeding but it would make it very, very difficult for the 9ers to make the playoffs at all. I think that's a big boost - we get the monkey off our back in some ways, and don't have to worry about running into them in the postseason. I'm sure while they wouldn't say it out loud there are probably a lot of guys who have been with us a few years who would really like to avoid what feels like an inevitable playoff exit to SF.

Of course that sword cuts both ways too. Just like a win could serve as a springboard to everything coming together for a back-half run...a loss could be really damaging mentally, too. Hurts our playoff seeding, gives SF new life in the playoff race, and we have to deal with continuing to feel like they've got our number (even a weaker/reduced version). Don't mean to sound dramatic, but it really wouldn't surprise me if it ends up being a pretty pivotal, make-or-break type of game.

It also gets down to having one's number. For instance, we just won a game we could have lost in Chicago. The same in LA against the Rams. Even Houston and Jacksonville went our way because of crunch time. Except for that 30-28 Crosby game SF finds a way to win against us in the last 5 minutes. Ironically, this season they have found ways to lose to other teams near the finish line. Let us break that spell this time.

 

[milani]

No wonder we’re skeptical of the 49ers. They’ve eliminated us from the Playoffs 6 times since 2013!


Although we Won 4 of the previous 5 playoff contests from 1996-2002
1996,1997,1998,2002

Favre loved playing the Niners. Even Majkowski beat Montana in SF. And if Fritz had not foolishly called the 3 man rush at the end it would have been 5 of 5 instead of OWENS CAUGHT IT.

 

[OldSchool101]

Favre loved playing the Niners. Even Majkowski beat Montana in SF. And if Fritz had not foolishly called the 3 man rush at the end it would have been 5 of 5 instead of OWENS CAUGHT IT.

Oh yeah I remember that Loss.

It’s supposed to be 5 consecutive. I had listed 2023 but we didn’t make playoffs under last year with Rodgers.

I guess you could say SF has owned us as of late. Although I think we’re built more evenly now also.

 

[milani]

This is a tough one for me to predict honestly. I think it's hard to look at totally objectively and not considering the history/context....I think if these were two totally anonymous teams - take away the names, the history, the jerseys, etc - and you compared just their performances this year, you'd be hard-pressed to favor the 49ers.

They do have a good offense (in terms of yards per game) but other than that, I think they're getting by a lot on name recognition and reputation at this point. They're a .500 team who hasn't beaten a single team with a winning record this year (Jets 3-8, Patriots 3-8, Seahawks 5-5, Cowboys 3-7, Buccaneers 4-6). Their line (on both sides of the ball) is just so-so. They have a bad run defense, and an average pass defense. At this point the DL is basically Nick Bosa and a bunch of "replacement-level" players. Same story on OL - It's Trent Williams and who knows. They've got a good run-blocking OL, but an average pass-blocking one. Deebo Samuel, for instance, is one of those names who I think people still put a lot of respect on and are pretty scared of, but he's been awful this year. He's averaging less than 60 all-purpose yards per game and has two TOTAL TDs on the year.

But of course the game is not played in a vacuum and context matters. If we play like we played vs Chicago, we'll probably lose. Still, looking at the totality of it...if you took our "average performance" from 2024 and played it against SF's "average performance," I think we'd win. Honestly, if you break down the numbers (again, just on average), we're almost identical, but we have played a considerably more difficult schedule (We are currently 8th in SoS played; SF are 22nd)

One random thing working in our favor is that in general we play better as the game goes along. Our 4th-quarter defense has been really good on the whole...But then SF has been the opposite. Their defensive EPA is #4 in the 1st quarter and #7 in the 2nd quarter. Then you get later in the game and it's #13 in the 3rd and falls off a cliff to #28 in the 4th.

So, I don't know. My head says we "should" win, but my gut is not confident...

I felt that even though we lost that playoff game last season I was surprised and I suspect the 9ers were as well that we played as good as we did. 9ers were clearly better on paper and stronger than Dallas. And we actually were ahead late in the game whereas when the Lions followed us there they had a complete 2nd half collapse.