2024 Draft Prospect Discussions

[Pokerbrat2000]

If he tests well and has a RAS flirting or breaking 9.00 he doesn't see Day 3 I bet.

I think Allen is going to turn some heads at the combine. If you have ever seen him in person, he is just a beast. At 6' 2" and 245, he is mostly muscle, with legs like tree trunks. I would call AJ Dillon 1.0. I think he will be a much better back than Dillon ever was and at the age of 20, he doesn't have a ton of mileage nor any major injuries.

If he tests out well, I see him going late 2nd round or early 3rd, he's NFL ready and I really would be just fine and excited if the Packers drafted him. He would be a great complimentary back with Jones.

BTW, all this "he isn't a proven route runner" is just a bunch of noise. The Badgers do not use their backs in that way. He has 49 receptions in 35 games played.

 

[PikeBadger]

I think Allen is going to turn some heads at the combine. If you have ever seen him in person, he is just a beast. At 6' 2" and 245, he is mostly muscle, with legs like tree trunks. I would call AJ Dillon 1.0. I think he will be a much better back than Dillon ever was and at the age of 20, he doesn't have a ton of mileage nor any major injuries.

If he tests out well, I see him going late 2nd round or early 3rd, he's NFL ready and I really would be just fine and excited if the Packers drafted him. He would be a great complimentary back with Jones.

BTW, all this "he isn't a proven route runner" is just a bunch of noise. The Badgers do not use their backs in that way. He has 49 receptions in 35 games played.

Dillon wasn't a proven receiver either coming out of college but was quite good already as a rookie.

 

[PikeBadger]

I don't see Allen as being quick to the hole and I've always had the feeling that he runs with too high a profile providing too large a tackling target exposing too much legs. I see him more as a 4th round target.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Dillon wasn't a proven receiver either coming out of college but was quite good already as a rookie.

I find it funny when "experts" downgrade a college RB for their abilities to catch out of the backfield. Now that is fine, if they have proven to just be a terrible receiver. However, just because they are only thrown the ball 1-2 during a game, doesn't equate to a RB with no receiving skills.

I don't see Allen as being quick to the hole and I've always had the feeling that he runs with too high a profile providing too large a tackling target exposing too much legs. I see him more as a 4th round target.

I disagree. Watch how many tackles he breaks and yards after contact. While you can't see his eyes in this film, he is very good at finding a hole and changing directions to hit it.

He would be an absolute steal in the 4th round.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

I really like this guys discussion of Allen. I just wish that he had used more film and from different games. People will look at this and just say "Meh, it was against a weak team." Yup, it was, but it isn't about the defense per se, it is about Allen's abilities as a RB, which he breaks down nicely in the video.

If you are worried about how he does against better talent, look at his game stats. In 2022 he shredded the #3 Buckeyes for 165 yards on 23 carries.

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[Thirteen Below]

I really like this guys discussion of Allen. I just wish that he had used more film and from different games. People will look at this and just say "Meh, it was against a weak team." Yup, it was, but it isn't about the defense per se, it is about Allen's abilities as a RB, which he breaks down nicely in the video.

If you are worried about how he does against better talent, look at his game stats. In 2022 he shredded the #3 Buckeyes for 165 yards on 23 carries.

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I've been trying to dampen my enthusiasm for Allen the last month or so, because there seem to be a lot of negative reports on him. People who don't like him really don't like him, and that always makes me wonder if i'm missing something important. But the more I look at him, and go back and watch Badger games, the harder it is for to not be excited about him.

Trouble is, I suspect we won't get him because he's the kind of guy for whom someone's likely to overpay. I see him in Round 3, but we don't pick until #88, and I think someone's going to swoop in and snatch him up before that. Not sure I'd be ready to take him at #58.

Do you like him enough to spend #58 on him? Given our needs at LB and S?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I've been trying to dampen my enthusiasm for Allen the last month or so, because there seem to be a lot of negative reports on him. People who don't like him really don't like him, and that always makes me wonder if i'm missing something important. But the more I look at him, and go back and watch Badger games, the harder it is for to not be excited about him.

Trouble is, I suspect we won't get him because he's the kind of guy for whom someone's likely to overpay. I see him in Round 3, but we don't pick until #88, and I think someone's going to swoop in and snatch him up before that. Not sure I'd be ready to take him at #58.

Do you like him enough to spend #58 on him? Given our needs at LB and S?

Same critics that said Jonathan Taylor would never make it in the NFL. I can't remember who it was, but there were a few posters here that I duked it out with over Taylor. He's turned out to be a pretty good NFL back. Their argument was "Wisconsin always has a great OL and Taylor will turn out like most of the other Badger RB's (Moss and Dayne)." I think fumbling and pass catching was also a knock on JT.

I do think Allen is the real deal. The Badger OL was a mess this year, as was the entire offense, yet he played a lot of the year hurt and still was a beast. He also only really played 7 complete games and still had 984 yds on 181 carries (5.4 yds/carry) and 12 TD's. He just turned 20 fricking years old in January and is still learning a position that he wasn't even recruited to play. Badgers recruited him as a LB! So yeah, the upside on this guy is incredible, IMO. He also isn't a big headed kid, that thinks he is the BMOC, he works incredibly hard, is smart (listen to his interviews) and a team guy. See video below.

Do I think the Packers will or should select him at 58? I don't think they will, but I wouldn't be mad if they did. Heck, Dillon was taken at 62. The RB class is pretty deep, so that might keep him on the board longer than 88. If he is still there at 88 and Gute passes on him, I will be mad, but understand the whole need thing.

A starting RB isn't what the Packers need in 2024, but they might need one soon. Allen is going to be better than Dillon and the 1-2 punch of Braelon and Jones could go a long way.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

He just turned 20 fricking years old in January and is still learning a position that he wasn't even recruited to play. Badgers recruited him as a LB! So yeah, the upside on this guy is incredible, IMO. He also isn't a big headed kid, that thinks he is the BMOC, he works incredibly hard, is smart (listen to his interviews) and a team guy. See video below.

Was thinking about what I said here and then I thought about the combine. Depending on how he tests out, he possibly could turn a lot of heads with scouts and coaches that talk with him and see him in person. He didn't have a monster 2023 season, so I think he is still under the radar, until maybe after this weekend.

 

[Todd Princl]

I don't see Allen as being quick to the hole and I've always had the feeling that he runs with too high a profile providing too large a tackling target exposing too much legs. I see him more as a 4th round target.

And we both kno that the Packers love their pad level!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Another aspect of what the Packers do at RB is the incredible amount of pretty talented RB's that might be hitting the Free Agent Market.

- Saquon Barkley

- Josh Jacobs

- Austin Ekeler

- Derrick Henry

- Tony Pollard

- D’Andre Swift

- Gus Edwards

- Joe Mixon (Talk of his release)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sounds like both Kinchens (S) and Rakestraw (CB) might be 2 guys Gute will pass on. Both had poor showings at the combine.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/after-combine-packers-probably-will-pass-on-top-safety-kamren-kinchens/

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/top-cornerback-prospect-ennis-rakestraw-misses-mark

 

[gopkrs]

I'd much rather go with the consensus of mock drafters/analysts and get: Jonathon Brooks, Trey Brensen, Blake Corum, Bucky Irving, Estime, or Jaylen Wright.

 

[tynimiller]

I'd much rather go with the consensus of mock drafters/analysts and get: Jonathon Brooks, Trey Brensen, Blake Corum, Bucky Irving, Estime, or Jaylen Wright.

Don’t sleep on the guy I shared weeks back from Louisville. Big FAST and low miles having had to sit behind Allen at Wisconsin before transfer

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

I don't remember if it was Tyni or Dante who loved him, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on Bucky Irving now. I'm not saying he's terrible or the 40 is everything, but man that's not what I wanted to see for someone who I thought might have a similar play style to Gibbs. I was also similarly shocked at Jawhar Jordan running so slow.

Also, noticed Benson had some slow feet in the Staley drill. Guerendo tested extremely well, but I'm not familiar with his tape so not sure that matches his play.

Lloyd moved up a little for me and so did Wright.

Safety doesn't look great and I'm hoping we make moves in free agency at this position.

Mitchell, Wiggins, and Arnold are my top three at corner right now.

Would love to add Sweat or Jenkins to the line for run support.

Wilson tested out of the gym, but as a linebacker and having seen his film, he can get caught up in the traffic due to his size and his injury history is a giant red flag.

Just some notes... well maybe word salad until I commit more time to film.

 

[tynimiller]

Laveon Bell was a 4.6 guy.

Bucky is not a burner, but love his cutting and I haven’t seen it yet but what was his three cone?

 

[Thirteen Below]

Guerendo tested extremely well, but I'm not familiar with his tape so not sure that matches his play.

I've seen almost every Louisville game this year, and I was a little bit surprised by how well he did - but not really all that much. It was within the range of what I would have expected, but admittedly, the upper end of that range. He really is the real deal. Just a rocket, especially for a guy with such massive upper-body strength. I don't want to be the 200-pound safety who has to plug the gap 20 times a day when he busts through the first layer at full throttle.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Laveon Bell was a 4.6 guy.

Bucky is not a burner, but love his cutting and I haven’t seen it yet but what was his three cone?

I haven't found any three cones for running backs yet. However, are you comparing Bell to Irving? One is 6'1" 220lbs and was more of a bruising back. The other is 5'9" 192lbs and is supposed to be more of a shifty back similar to Gibbs. Being around the same height and weight as Gibbs with what was supposed to be a similar skill set and running around 4.6 is not ideal.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I'd much rather go with the consensus of mock drafters/analysts and get: Jonathon Brooks, Trey Brensen, Blake Corum, Bucky Irving, Estime, or Jaylen Wright.

Brensen and Corum had really solid days today at the Combine, but I'm not sure Irving really moved up many boards. He looked good, though and didn't do anything to hurt himself.

Estime, on the other hand... he dropped back a round or two. 4.71 40 is a poor look for any RB.

I was watching some film late last night, and found an Estime highlight reel. The more I watched it, the more it looked like a Notre Dame offensive line highlight reel - almost every big play seemed to be Joe Alt clearing a backside gap 6 yards wide and Estime exploding through it untouched at full speed. He's got that play down pat, I'll give him that - take the quick handoff and head for the hole Alt's making for him, but I rarely saw him make any holes for himself.

 

[tynimiller]

I haven't found any three cones for running backs yet. However, are you comparing Bell to Irving? One is 6'1" 220lbs and was more of a bruising back. The other is 5'9" 192lbs and is supposed to be more of a shifty back similar to Gibbs. Being around the same height and weight as Gibbs with what was supposed to be a similar skill set and running around 4.6 is not ideal

Not at all, folks critical of Irving due to forty though. I expect he does well in cone but who knows.

His shiftiness and redirect in games is special.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Do I think the Packers will or should select him at 58? I don't think they will, but I wouldn't be mad if they did. Heck, Dillon was taken at 62. The RB class is pretty deep, so that might keep him on the board longer than 88. If he is still there at 88 and Gute passes on him, I will be mad, but understand the whole need thing.

Pretty much where I fall on the issue, too.

Which of course assumes that we stand pat at 25, 41, 58, 88, and 93. Which I think is unlikely, so our speculation only has a limited degree of logic to it.

A starting RB isn't what the Packers need in 2024, but they might need one soon. Allen is going to be better than Dillon and the 1-2 punch of Braelon and Jones could go a long way.

Exactly the way I see it. Adding a feature back to the roster for the 2024 season is not a priority, but adding one for the 2025 season arguably is.

Jones is a hard-running back with a violent, pounding style, and given a choice between angling toward the sideline and heading for the 250-lb linebacker, he picks the linebacker 9 out of 10 times. He's been tackled over 1800 times in his career, and he's turning 30 this year - the point at which RBs start to break down, and when that starts to happen, it usually goes pretty fast. You can easily count on one hand the number of years we can expect Jones to continue to perform at this level, but it will probably be within the next 2 or 3 years.

And if 2024 is the year he starts to tail off, I don't want to go into the offseason knowing that the 2025 season depends on either getting a free agent RB or drafting a back who can step in as a rookie starter. I'd be a lot more comfortable covering that need a year early, when we have plenty of draft picks in the right range, and developing the kid over the course of the season.

We might even get an extra year out of Aaron if we draft someone who can effectively split time with him this season.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Another aspect of what the Packers do at RB is the incredible amount of pretty talented RB's that might be hitting the Free Agent Market.

- Saquon Barkley

- Josh Jacobs

- Austin Ekeler

- Derrick Henry

- Tony Pollard

- D’Andre Swift

- Gus Edwards

- Joe Mixon (Talk of his release)

I'd rather spend free agent money on a safety; that's a need we're going to have a much harder time meeting in the draft, and you rarely seem to get good value from UFA RBs. They always seem overpriced.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd rather spend free agent money on a safety; that's a need we're going to have a much harder time meeting in the draft, and you rarely seem to get good value from UFA RBs. They always seem overpriced.

Agree on usually not getting value back for FA RB's. However, with how big the supply is of talented FA RB', coupled with decent draft stock of talent, it might be a buyers market.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Agree on usually not getting value back for FA RB's. However, with how big the supply is of talented FA RB', coupled with decent draft stock of talent, it might be a buyers market.

Excellent point.... yeah, you're seeing a deeper, more comprehensive and strategic view of the scenarios.

Not to sound like I'm determined to not be wrong, but looking at it through that lens, I guess my main reservation is that we're only buying a few years because Arbies have such a short career and we're getting one who's already close to the halfway point.

But yeah, if we could find the right guy at the right price, I can see the plus side. Definitely. As I've said, we don't need an OJ or a Walter Payton. There are a lot of free agents who may not be as good as Jones, but are still plenty good enough to do what needs to be done to keep the defense spread out and vulnerable to the aerial circus.

I guess my thinking is this... we're looking at two positions of need here, safety and RB. Of the two, safety is by far the more immedate need, and it's a weak talent pool from which to draft a safety. And even if you draft a really good one, the chances of him stepping in and being a key man in our defense Day One are pretty slim. Which is pretty mucn exactly the expectation we'd be placing on him.... and that's a tough ask at that position.

Yet there are a fair number of decent and probably adequate safeties available in the free agent market, who we can count on to solve a significant part of the problem for several years while we focus on other parts of our roster.

At the same time, there are a number of running backs available in this draft class who fit the profile of what we're looking for at that position. We can solve the RB problem for the next 2-8 years with the right draft pick.

I don't know how many positions we can really afford to fix tihis year with free agents, but if money is tight (which seems likely) and we have to pick just one to go all in on and really commit to (which seems likely), I'd rather spend on safety than get a half decent safety and a half decent running back.

Or maybe I'm applying too many layers of thought to the whole process. lol

 

[gopkrs]

At the same time, there are a number of running backs available in this draft class who fit the profile of what we're looking for at that position. We can solve the RB problem for the next 2-8 years with the right draft pick.

Yes, that's what I'm hoping

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't know how many positions we can really afford to fix tihis year with free agents, but if money is tight (which seems likely) and we have to pick just one to go all in on and really commit to (which seems likely), I'd rather spend on safety than get a half decent safety and a half decent running back.

We are definitely thinking along the same lines. No doubt in my mind that the Packers have to go after at least 1 if not 2 FA Safeties. No way should they try to fill that need strictly through the draft. I think by the time Free Agency and the draft are over, the Packers have at least 3 new safeties on the roster.

As far as RB goes. I only pointed out the supply of both the FA and draft stock of decent RB's to bring home the fact that the Packers don't have to break the bank at the position. No need to spend a lot of money or high draft stock for a backup/2nd back and they still should come away with a qualified guy. The good news for the Packers, some teams will break the bank on a Sequon Barkley or Josh Jacobs and that should add available RB's in the draft for the Packers to snag at a perceived bargain. On the other end of that, because of the supply, a guy like FA Gus Edwards may not get much attention and might sign for $2-3M.

It's a good year to need a backup RB and despite the combine, not that bad of year to need a starting safety.