So I deep deep dove into safeties that are on the top of my board...Nubin, Kinchens, Hicks, Bullard, Bishop....these five (other than DeJean) have been my top 5 safeties since about Oct/Nov time frame but they've shifted some as to who and how strong I think each is.
While measurables may shift my thoughts some, I don't think the order I have these in will change - measurables to me typically confirm or strengthen thoughts but rarely change them massively.
#1 Kamren Kinchens - He is locked in as my #1. I'm going to bring up a player comp that I do so VERY hesitantly, because I strongly believe this player had the chance of being arguably the best at his position in Packer history....Kinchens reminds me so strongly of Nick Collins coming out of Bethune-Cookman.
- Closing Ability - The first thing that pops to me is this mans downhill or jump ball closing explosion seems quicker than at any other time he closes on the field. It's almost like his body can produce a higher gear when he sees a ballcarrier break through the line or the ball is in the air more so than even if a receiver slips behind a corner and he has over the top help and has to close. Kinchens plays the ball, and does so with an anger almost that I always saw in Nick - until the ball is possessed by the offense, Kinchens 100% feels that ball is his.
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Body for hitting - While he is highly athletic and has excellent speed and acceleration (not elite but very good) none of that comes at a cost of body structure or hitting ability. He unlike say Bullock out of USC is not a pencil thin pool noodle trying to shoulder or ankle tackle everything (I'm exxagerating folks but Bullock is much more slender). At 5'11' 205lbs (Miami site claims 6 foot)
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Fluidity and Flexibility throughout movements - While his long speed isn't quite elite, meaning unlike say stokes who could make up for misstep or delayed reactions with his speed, Kinchens makes up for in his anticipation but also his body control. His hips are fluid and this allows hip to keep exceptional leverage typically when in coverage....his backpedal is IMO the best out of the safeties on this list and it is all of this that gives me that true center field of the future vibe from him.
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Ball hawking can cost him - His aggression and belief he can get the ball costs him at times and his growth in the knowledge and in game ability to know when to go for it and when to go for the receiver instead or just not overcommit will be the biggest hurdle IMO of him being just a starter vs potentially an all pro type safety in a few years.
If you want to see him in at his best IMO check out the film from this years' Texas A&M game...all phases he showed out. Both this year and last year Clemson games he was awesome, and last year's film that got me pumped for him even last year was Georgia Tech and the before mentioned Clemson game. That GTech game of 2022 Kamren scored guys a 96.8 overall PFF grade...but a 77.6 in Run defense, 73.6 Tackling grade and a 96.2 Coverage grade...just ludacris good day. He took over 400 snaps (57.2%) at FS vs 174 box and 117 slot in 2022 and this past year saw him again majority at FS with 379 (59.4%) FS vs 110 box and 113 slot.
Kinchens gets a first round stamp from me value wise I would say anything after 17 or so I would understand a team with need calling in his name.
#2 Tyler Nubin - He actually was my #1 for sometime until I really dove into Kinchens more, which for the record I think Kinchens overtook Nubin for me, not that I noticed anything I didn't like out of Nubin. Tyler honestly graded out better than Kinchens overall and at times against the likes of Nebraska, Iowa, MSU and Illinois IMO played elite level football for a safety this past year in 2023. So what makes him so good:
-Body structure - much like Kinchens, he is not a tiny dude...despite being 6'2' and only five pounds heavier than Kinchens, Nubin's frame is very well structured. But I will say Nubin exhibits more strength in his playstyle than Kinchens right now...I think both have adaquate strength, but Nubin especially when down in run support I was amazed at times how well he could anchor a block, read and arm strength made him able to shed the block and make a play.
- Hands - Excellent hands. If he gets his hands on the ball it is RARE it won't be going the other way.
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Run Support Now - To me if someone picks Nubin over Kinchens it is more with run support and down in the box safety help is desired, because that is where Nubin feasts on offenses and makes things happen....coverage in the slot is an added benefit because there is not a TE he has seen that would have the advantage over him - a massive vital trait more and more teams have to employ given the TE athleticism in the league nowadays.
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Needs better hips and feet - This is the only glaring issue with Nubin for me and is the sole reason I struggle to say he is worth Day1 capital. His feet and his fluidity in movement just isn't on par with where you would want it...but his football IQ and proven track record has showcased time after time he has figured out how to not let it be an issue. That would be the question, can he make it work at the next level if this aspect of his game doesn't grow. Personally I actually think if he hits the agility tests at the combine, it is confirmation that he isolated his biggest weakness and started attacking it - he does that he is right up there with Kinchens for me and I then have a 1a and 1b with VERY little difference in value despite me seeing one more of a center fielder type and the other box type - each would have similar if not exact same value overall.
2022 - he played 339 snaps at FS or 59.5% of his defensive snaps
2023 - he played 468 snaps at FS or 60.9 % of his defensive snaps
I won't drown everyone through rest but Jaden Hicks has become my #3 and Javon Bullard my #4 (his diverse offering of slot/safety play is very attractive though) and Cole Bishop is #5 with the surprise surprise possibly of my top ten being I think Oladapo from Oregon State might get my #6 overall...and since no one has probably looked or heard his name quick hit notes:
Kitan Oladapo is an older prospect having played five years. Has good size at 6'1' 217lbs according to most sources, Overall PFF grades: 2023 - 88.2 / 2022 - 79.9 / 2021 - 73.6. His run defense grade was ELITE level this past year but his coverage nearly was too at 84.4. One of his best games was the ND bowl game this season but also if able check out the Washington game against INSANELY good WRs and QB he was possibly the best player out there for the Beavers.
2023 snaps - 22% FS / 35.2% slot / 37% box
2022 snaps - 36.6% FS / 24.6% slot / 34.4% box
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