2024 draft discussion thread

[OldSchool101]

A lot of wide receivers improve their drop rate after a season or two of coaching. While fumbling is a little different, it isn't outrageous to think Lloyd can get more surehanded. The Packers have really been good at protecting the ball for many seasons. I'd hate to see that change.

I often wonder if hand size or hand strength correlated to fumbling issues. Or is technique more important? I remembered his hands were somewhat smaller for a typical RB.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I often wonder if hand size or hand strength correlated to fumbling issues. Or is technique more important? I remembered his hands were somewhat smaller for a typical RB.

It's probably a combination of hand size and strength. Can't imagine big hands don't help hang on to the ball. Obviously keeping the ball next to your body is a must so there is more to it than just hand size.

 

[Thirteen Below]

It's probably a combination of hand size and strength. Can't imagine big hands don't help hang on to the ball. Obviously keeping the ball next to your body is a must so there is more to it than just hand size.

I recall that one of Ahman Green's problems was that he was lefthanded, and - unlike most RBs - he never learned to feel comfortable carrying the pill in his offhand.

So when he ran to the right, the ball was exposed and vulnerable to linebackers and safeties spearing it at full speed or stripping it. Most of his fumbles came when he was running to the right, and other teams definiteluy figured it out. Brian Urlacher sure took advantage of it; he said it straight up after a game where Chicago embarrased Green Bay in 2004, partly because he stripped Green of the ball deep in the red zone.

Green's left-arm reliance is hardly a secret. Just ask Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher, who darted through the offensive line and cleanly stripped the ball from Green.
"He carries the ball in his left hand and I just happened to hit the ball," Urlacher said."

Analysis: Is Green a fumbler?

They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks. One flaw in that philosophy is Ahman Green is neither old nor a dog.

247sports.com

Green knew it, too, and I recall the coaching staff worked with him on it. But he never was able to correct it, even once he knew how much a part of the problem that was. He just couldn't learn how to feel natural carrying a football in his right hand. So, 4-7 fumbles every season.

But - once he went to Houston, he never put the ball on the ground again in his life. He did have fewer than 200 more touches in his career after going to Houston, but still, considering he averaged 1 fumble every ~50 carries through his career, it's statistically significant that he never dropped another ball in his last 3 seasons. That suggests he may have finally figured it out.

So yeah, sometimes really simple things play a big part in the problem. That's part of why I say maybe Green Bay's scouts and coaching staff have seen something in Lloyd's game that they feel is correctable. I reckon we will find out.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Again though that isn't how you would grade a team's Day2. Say they drafted:

Cooper and Bullard still but then went Dylan Laube instead of Lloyd and Tatum Bethune instead of Hooper...you're grading the whole Day2.



The second we saw three QBs go 1-3 the chatter was STRONG possibility of some guys falling...especially if teams pushed for the 4-6th QBs and the plethora number of WRs were going to push prospects into the second. Few names that GB really needs to thank (or the organization that took them) are guys like Penix, Nix, McCarthy, Pearsall, Worthy....five guys that IMO had zero business going first round.

Tyni,

I wasn't on Hopper until Day 3 so that's a C pick for me.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Tyni,

I wasn't on Hopper until Day 3 so that's a C pick for me.

Ditto to both of you guys. I'm not sure Cooper or Bullard make it to the second round without the huge run on QBs, WRs, and OL early in the draft. I'm not so critical of the WRs and OL taken, but the QB run looked like desperation after the first three picks, although I do like Penix, just not at #8. We'll see if that pays off for Atlanta. (And Rick, yeah, Hopper seems a stretch.)

Kind of makes up for the years GB truly needed WR help, and everyone was gone by late round 1. I think that happened twice. One year when Gluten took no WRs, and then the year he had to trade up in round 2 to get Watson. I guess drafting can be like karma - bad years followed by good years and vice versa. It all seems to have worked out fine.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Tyni,

I wasn't on Hopper until Day 3 so that's a C pick for me.

Hopper is very similar to the Deguara pick. Both guys were picked in the third round when they were consensus late 5th or 6th round picks. Picking Hopper isn't the issue, it's using a third round pick that you got from trading Douglas that's the issue. Reaching for a player hasn't been a very productive tactic.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Hopper is very similar to the Deguara pick. Both guys were picked in the third round when they were consensus late 5th or 6th round picks. Picking Hopper isn't the issue, it's using a third round pick that you got from trading Douglas that's the issue. Reaching for a player hasn't been a very productive tactic.

It is hard to understand these big discrepancies between the consensus of sportswriters and whoever else ranks a draft class, and where a guy is actually picked based on a GM's analysis.

I hope Hopper has something going for him that most people missed. DeGuara is a good example, although the third round overall hasn't been that good for GB. I know there are exceptions. Just don't remember a lot of guys taken in round 3 who panned out.

 

[Sanguine camper]

It is hard to understand these big discrepancies between the consensus of sportswriters and whoever else ranks a draft class, and where a guy is actually picked based on a GM's analysis.

I hope Hopper has something going for him that most people missed. DeGuara is a good example, although the third round overall hasn't been that good for GB. I know there are exceptions. Just don't remember a lot of guys taken in round 3 who panned out.

Gute likes to reach in the first three rounds, especially the third. After that, he let's guys fall to him and the opposite can happen like getting Zach Tom in the 4th, Wicks in the 5th or Brooks in the 6th. Like I've said before, Gute's day three drafting is superlative and has saved his job from his early round blunders.

 

[tynimiller]

He’s had three true “blunders” in day1 and day2

Josh Jackson, Sternberger and Amari Rodgers.


FTR a blunder to me is a guy that doesn’t even stay in the league as a contributor or even make it on the team that drafts him during his rookie deal. A guy that not only shouldn’t have been drafted when he was but arguably should have been a UDFA rather than a day1 or day2 pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

Hopper is very similar to the Deguara pick. Both guys were picked in the third round when they were consensus late 5th or 6th round picks. Picking Hopper isn't the issue, it's using a third round pick that you got from trading Douglas that's the issue. Reaching for a player hasn't been a very productive tactic.

I agree Hopper is a little chancy at #91. That said he was rising as one of the top LB’s in 2022. Then in 2023 he was dealing with an ankle injury and it showed. Rd3 is a funny thing. If we get the continuation of 2022 Hopper then he’s more in that later Rd2 value, but at the end of Rd3.

For me, I had Hopper and Lloyd more in that Rd4 area (call it our #126) Thats still a very good athlete there. Rd4 RB’s and Off Ball LB’s often go on to get either early playing time, lots of involvement or both.

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as Hopper. He was another Missouri product trending in the direction of his predecessor, Nick Bolton. Had Hopper not been dealing with injuries? I can see where he was projected to build off his 2022 campaign (2nd year as Starter)

Projecting out his 4th year Junior season. By all accounts 2023 Hopper should’ve been in that
80-90 Tackles
15 TFL
3 Sacks
5 PD
1 INT
Let’s make no bones about it.. that type production above would’ve put him solidly in that class of LB who starts in a Rookie season. I believe we took a chance that THIS is the Hopper we could get at #91

Now let’s be frank. Ty’rons 2023 production was still “good”, but it’s obvious he wasn’t playing to his ceiling at all. He also has a pretty ideal height at 6’2” 228lb to fill out a few more pounds into a pro typical modern LB

I Remember his predecessor took very similar or equivalent type arguments. Too small, too slow.. probably a Day 3 guy. His biggest problem now is getting his SB ring off to shower. This was Nick Bolton in 2021 from the same School.

“Bolton could play on the inside of a 3-4 defense in the NFL, but his best fit could come as 4-3 Mike – middle – linebacker. Some in the media have Bolton projected as a first-rounder, but some team sources said they have Bolton graded on Day 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft as a fourth- or fifth-rounder. Other team evaluators said they had Bolton graded in the third round, with one team saying they had him as a late second- to early third-round pick. Overall, team contacts thought was likely to be a second- or third-round pick”

 

[OldSchool101]

Gotta remember that Hopper didn’t even get a full season in and got a 2nd Team All SEC nod AND he was a finalist for the Nations best LB (Butkus Award). We’re talking 2023 here
What would’ve happened had he played healthy all season?

That TFL rate is better than Bolton coming out. Now let’s not jump to conclusions I’m not saying he’s better than him, but it’s absolutely impressive. At the LB position TFL is a key component of success. He scores an “A” grade there. As is #Tackles (Pursuit) PD (coverage skill) Sacks (disruptive) etc.

For myself, a more proper argument might be that “We probably didn’t even NEED another LB after taking Cooper” What I’m making of all this?
GB is emphasizing Run Stop and gaining versatility and depth

 

[Thirteen Below]

Ditto to both of you guys. I'm not sure Cooper or Bullard make it to the second round without the huge run on QBs, WRs, and OL early in the draft. I'm not so critical of the WRs and OL taken, but the QB run looked like desperation after the first three picks, although I do like Penix, just not at #8. We'll see if that pays off for Atlanta.

I am right there with you on that thought. I was practically doing cartwheels that whole first night, watching QBs, WRs, and OLs being snatched up one after the other - 6 QBs, 4 WRs, that's 10 players at positions where we had zero need, and 6 OL in a year where the draft was so deep that when we picked the 7th OL, it was a tackle who would have been Top 15 most years - arguably even 10.

Plus, the abundance of QBs allowed a guy who many had pegged for the 4th round to fall to us in Round 7, because anyone who had any need at all for a quarterback had already cashed in. It was like that whole draft was arranged specifically to set us up for maximum drafting success. Gutekunst had us positioned to draft for maximum value rather than immediate need in every single round.

It was a thing of beauty.