2024 draft discussion thread

[OldSchool101]

LOL I Loved Love as a prospect but absolutely cannot refute that he was a massive gamble.....you're actually making my case for me so just keep posting LOL

Nearly any QB is gamble. Particularly outside that Top 10 overall area. Positions get picked over hard past 20 overall. It still doesn’t account for the fact that Jordan Love isn’t even near his peak and he’s already put to shame his draft grade. A D? Cmon.
So he obviously wasn’t as big a gamble as many thought. At least many that obviously did NOT take the time or proper effort to truly study him. Either that or they were just egregiously wrong at evaluating him or have no clue how to team build. Possibly a good mix if all 3 in ineptitude. Jordan Love’s floor mops up 75% of the drafts ceiling.

I don’t put much weight in those draft grades. We need not go far to see just how wrong. Let’s hit Day2 last years draft, 2023. NFL.com put a B grade on our Day2 selections just last year Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Only 4 teams ranked below our Day2 draft grade. Thats Reed, Musgrave and Kraft? they basically are saying we’re in the potential bottom dwellers of draft grades just last year?? Thats ridiculous.
GB had one of their best drafts in a decade or more last year. If you think disagreeing with these graded are “short-sided” then I’ll gladly admit I’m the shortest sided one of them all. I totally disagree with our lousy, day 2, bottom dweller grade. The last two years of Day2’s stack 7 Packers. I’d argue opposite. Those 7 players offer a ton of potential as a group. Probably closer to Top 5-10 than their bottom 5-10 grades being handed out. I respectfully disagree with you Tyni.
In 2024:
1 Suamataia <= Cooper, Bullard, Lloyd Hopper combined. Definitely NOT the reverse you are selling us

 

[Heyjoe4]

Nearly any QB is gamble. Particularly outside that Top 10 overall area. Positions get picked over hard past 20 overall. It still doesn’t account for the fact that Jordan Love isn’t even near his peak and he’s already put to shame his draft grade. A D? Cmon.
So he obviously wasn’t as big a gamble as many thought. At least many that obviously did NOT take the time or proper effort to truly study him. Either that or they were just egregiously wrong at evaluating him or have no clue how to team build. Possibly a good mix if all 3 in ineptitude. Jordan Love’s floor mops up 75% of the drafts ceiling.

I don’t put much weight in those draft grades. We need not go far to see just how wrong. Let’s hit Day2 last years draft, 2023. NFL.com put a B grade on our Day2 selections just last year Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Only 4 teams ranked below our Day2 draft grade. Thats Reed, Musgrave and Kraft? they basically are saying we’re in the potential bottom dwellers of draft grades just last year?? Thats ridiculous.
GB had one of their best drafts in a decade or more last year. If you think disagreeing with these graded are “short-sided” then I’ll gladly admit I’m the shortest sided one of them all. I totally disagree with our lousy, day 2, bottom dweller grade. The last two years of Day2’s stack 7 Packers. I’d argue opposite. Those 7 players offer a ton of potential as a group. Probably closer to Top 5-10 than their bottom 5-10 grades being handed out. I respectfully disagree with you Tyni.
In 2024:
1 Suamataia <= Cooper, Bullard, Lloyd Hopper combined. Definitely NOT the reverse you are selling us

Cliff Notes version please. (OK, I need to take my own advice on this as well. Most people just won't read something this long. LTF sets the example for brevity in his responses. We all could benefit from his example, including me. So taking my own advice, I'll limit my own future comments/replies to no more than two paragraphs, and even that is long.)

 

[tynimiller]

Nearly any QB is gamble. Particularly outside that Top 10 overall area. Positions get picked over hard past 20 overall. It still doesn’t account for the fact that Jordan Love isn’t even near his peak and he’s already put to shame his draft grade. A D? Cmon.
So he obviously wasn’t as big a gamble as many thought. At least many that obviously did NOT take the time or proper effort to truly study him. Either that or they were just egregiously wrong at evaluating him or have no clue how to team build. Possibly a good mix if all 3 in ineptitude. Jordan Love’s floor mops up 75% of the drafts ceiling.

I don’t put much weight in those draft grades. We need not go far to see just how wrong. Let’s hit Day2 last years draft, 2023. NFL.com put a B grade on our Day2 selections just last year Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Only 4 teams ranked below our Day2 draft grade. Thats Reed, Musgrave and Kraft? they basically are saying we’re in the potential bottom dwellers of draft grades just last year?? Thats ridiculous.
GB had one of their best drafts in a decade or more last year. If you think disagreeing with these graded are “short-sided” then I’ll gladly admit I’m the shortest sided one of them all. I totally disagree with our lousy, day 2, bottom dweller grade. The last two years of Day2’s stack 7 Packers. I’d argue opposite. Those 7 players offer a ton of potential as a group. Probably closer to Top 5-10 than their bottom 5-10 grades being handed out. I respectfully disagree with you Tyni.
In 2024:
1 Suamataia <= Cooper, Bullard, Lloyd Hopper combined. Definitely NOT the reverse you are selling us

You only can grade what a team has….so of course if you allow just number of players to control a grading than sure but duh.

Fact is most grades are developed on how well a team did with what they had (in the opinion of the analyst) - KC had just one day2 pick. You grade that, it is short sighted to lesson a grade purely because of it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You only can grade what a team has….so of course if you allow just number of players to control a grading than sure but duh.

Fact is most grades are developed on how well a team did with what they had (in the opinion of the analyst) - KC had just one day2 pick. You grade that, it is short sighted to lesson a grade purely because of it.

Agreed. A team with four picks can be graded just as easily as a team with 11 picks. In both cases, value and team need can be benchmarks. Pretty straightforward IMO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But the claim that by default number of picks beat one pick purely by grading is as I have said short sighted at minimum. Just because a team has two first round picks doesn't mean they did better Day1 than a team with 1...

While I agree with you, it is with a caveat. One part of "draft success" (the day after) I look at is what a team went into the draft with and what they left with. So moving around during the draft, as Gute does quite often, is super important IMO. A GM that just sits pat and waits for their turn to pick, probably isn't doing a complete job. Gute and his draft team mimic a lot of what I see them doing all year long, looking for those small ways to improve the team, by bettering themselves with a quick trade or pickup.

All in all, this "grading" of the actual drafts picks, before the draftees even get a team jockstrap assigned to them is just an exercise in masturbation by the media and football fans, but a popular one for sure.

 

[gopkrs]

You only can grade what a team has….so of course if you allow just number of players to control a grading than sure but duh.

Fact is most grades are developed on how well a team did with what they had (in the opinion of the analyst) - KC had just one day2 pick. You grade that, it is short sighted to lesson a grade purely because of it.

Most of the analysts that I read or see on TV don't take into consideration how many picks a team had or if the pick was first or 30th. Nor do they seem to think about players received in a trade for picks.

 

[sschind]

Grading a draft immediately does have merit. Everybody does it. Even those who won't put a letter grade on it because "grading a draft immediately is pointless" and "you can't really grade a draft until 3 years have passed" still give their evaluations which is essentially the same thing. It addresses to what extent the grader feels the team has addressed its needs and how they feel the draftees will help the team. We all know that is not as important as how the individual players actually perform and help the team but at the moment its all anyone has. The thing is not everyone grades using the same criteria and even if they do their evaluations of players and situations can vary significantly.

That's why when one team gets 1 player who the grader thought should have been drafted way higher gets a higher grade than a team who gets 4 players who went pretty much where he thought they would go or even a bit higher. The number of players taken is only 1 part of of the evaluation.

 

[tynimiller]

Grading a draft immediately does have merit. Everybody does it. Even those who won't put a letter grade on it because "grading a draft immediately is pointless" and "you can't really grade a draft until 3 years have passed" still give their evaluations which is essentially the same thing. It addresses to what extent the grader feels the team has addressed its needs and how they feel the draftees will help the team. We all know that is not as important as how the individual players actually perform and help the team but at the moment its all anyone has. The thing is not everyone grades using the same criteria and even if they do their evaluations of players and situations can vary significantly.

That's why when one team gets 1 player who the grader thought should have been drafted way higher gets a higher grade than a team who gets 4 players who went pretty much where he thought they would go or even a bit higher. The number of players taken is only 1 part of of the evaluation.

Yup, Doubs and Tom both alone made draft class Day3 grade from me for Packers in the day of no less than a B+ because both of those picks alone were an A+ at that point in the draft with how high I had him. While the rest of Gutes' picks that year panned out rather solid, if he'd made some absurd reaches for me and my board I'd easily pushed us to that B+ instead of being in the A's for me....I happened to have thought a lot of Tariq, Samori and Enagbare so they were highly thought for me but still.

Number of players taken is a part sure, but so miniscule to the fact that a team with four picks is not defacto higher than one with less.

 

[DoURant]

Nearly any QB is gamble. Particularly outside that Top 10 overall area. Positions get picked over hard past 20 overall. It still doesn’t account for the fact that Jordan Love isn’t even near his peak and he’s already put to shame his draft grade. A D? Cmon.
So he obviously wasn’t as big a gamble as many thought. At least many that obviously did NOT take the time or proper effort to truly study him. Either that or they were just egregiously wrong at evaluating him or have no clue how to team build. Possibly a good mix if all 3 in ineptitude. Jordan Love’s floor mops up 75% of the drafts ceiling.

I don’t put much weight in those draft grades. We need not go far to see just how wrong. Let’s hit Day2 last years draft, 2023. NFL.com put a B grade on our Day2 selections just last year Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Only 4 teams ranked below our Day2 draft grade. Thats Reed, Musgrave and Kraft? they basically are saying we’re in the potential bottom dwellers of draft grades just last year?? Thats ridiculous.
GB had one of their best drafts in a decade or more last year. If you think disagreeing with these graded are “short-sided” then I’ll gladly admit I’m the shortest sided one of them all. I totally disagree with our lousy, day 2, bottom dweller grade. The last two years of Day2’s stack 7 Packers. I’d argue opposite. Those 7 players offer a ton of potential as a group. Probably closer to Top 5-10 than their bottom 5-10 grades being handed out. I respectfully disagree with you Tyni.
In 2024:
1 Suamataia <= Cooper, Bullard, Lloyd Hopper combined. Definitely NOT the reverse you are selling us

I'm not a fan of Draft grades, at least not until the players 1st contract is up. The Packers pick of Love, receiving a "D" grade, is linked towards the Packers having Rodgers on the team, not because of Love's talent level. He wasn't going to play for a few years, unless injury forced him to play. It was rumored that the Colts were interested in Love, and if the Colts would have traded up and drafted him, it would have been probably a "B", maybe even an "A". If this draft was regraded today, we all know the Packers pick of Love would be an "A+". In hindsight, if the 2020 Draft was re-drafted today, Love could very well be pick #1 or #2 overall.... which is why I don't like the post Draft grades.

 

[Thirteen Below]

In one of the rare cases where I agree with Rodgers - Gluten should have told Rodgers what he was planning before he drafted Love. Yeah Rodgers won two more MVPs, but those felt like revenge awards and Rodgers was just as happy winning a "spite" MVP as he would have been winning the SB. Gluten and Rodgers never mended that bridge.

I'm not sure it was necessary to notify Rodgers, or for that matter even a good idea, given how temperamental he can be.

Gute apparently didn't have a solid intention to draft Love until shortly before the pick was made - possibly even as close as one slot prior to our pick. Going into the draft, QB was certainly among the options he was considering, but when you're picking #30, there's just no way to assume any particular player is likely to still be there.

There's credible reporting that says Green Bay was seriouslly considering Brandon Ayuk with that pick, because Minnesota had just drafted Justin Jefferson and nobody expected them to take another WR with #25. Suposedly, the trade up was intended to take Ayuk, but the Vikings traded the pick to the Niners at the last second and they took him - at which point, Green Bay decided pull the trigger on the trade with Miami and take Love instead. If Gutekunst had told Rodgers prior to the draft that he was thinking QB, and then drafted Brandon Ayuk, he's poked the prima dona with a stick for no real purpose.

Besides, Rodgers himself was asked just a few weeks prior to the draft what he would think if Green Bay took an early quarterback. Here is what he said:

“Well look, I’m realistic,” Rodgers said. “I know where we’re at as an organization and where I’m at in my career. I still feel like I have a ton of years left playing at a high level. I’m confident enough. I’ve always felt like it doesn’t matter who you bring in, they’re not going to be able to beat me out anytime soon. … I understand the business and the nature of it, obviously love to bring guys in that are going to be able to play and compete the right way. I understand it’s a business. I wouldn’t have a problem.”

Behind the Packers’ stunning decision to draft QB Jordan Love in first round

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst traded up four spots to No. 26 and dealt a fourth-round selection to the Dolphins.

www.nytimes.com

So. He says he has no problem with it, it's fine, anything that makes the team better, it's just a business., he understands, he doesn't feel threatened, etc. And then they draft a quarterback, and he gets pissy about it?

Man up, you arrogant baby.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm not sure it was necessary to notify Rodgers, or for that matter even a good idea, given how temperamental he can be.

Gute apparently didn't have a solid intention to draft Love until shortly before the pick was made - possibly even as close as one slot prior to our pick. Going into the draft, QB was certainly among the options he was considering, but when you're picking #30, there's just no way to assume any particular player is likely to still be there.

There's credible reporting that says Green Bay was seriouslly considering Brandon Ayuk with that pick, because Minnesota had just drafted Justin Jefferson and nobody expected them to take another WR with #25. Suposedly, the trade up was intended to take Ayuk, but the Vikings traded the pick to the Niners at the last second and they took him - at which point, Green Bay decided pull the trigger on the trade with Miami and take Love instead. If Gutekunst had told Rodgers prior to the draft that he was thinking QB, and then drafted Brandon Ayuk, he's poked the prima dona with a stick for no real purpose.

Besides, Rodgers himself was asked just a few weeks prior to the draft what he would think if Green Bay took an early quarterback. Here is what he said:

Behind the Packers’ stunning decision to draft QB Jordan Love in first round

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst traded up four spots to No. 26 and dealt a fourth-round selection to the Dolphins.

www.nytimes.com

So. He says he has no problem with it, it's fine, anything that makes the team better, it's just a business., he understands, he doesn't feel threatened, etc. And then they draft a quarterback, and he gets pissy about it?

Man up, you arrogant baby.

Well yeah - and then he tells the press the Jets should only be thinking about football, and he missed mandatory mini camp. Hypocrite, as LTF called him. The list goes on. Glad he’s not GB’s problem anymore.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Well yeah - and then he tells the press the Jets should only be thinking about football, and he missed mandatory mini camp. Hypocrite, as LTF called him. The list goes on. Glad he’s not GB’s problem anymore.

Perhaps we love our superstar quarterbacks too much. Maybe we're spoiling those boys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Perhaps we love our superstar quarterbacks too much. Maybe we're spoiling those boys.

I think it's how people handle their celebrity. It's not football, but fame killed people like Elvis, Michael Jackson, Kurt Cobain, Howard Hughes - the list goes on. Rodgers just let his celebrity go to his head in an unhealthy way. Or maybe it just gave him a platform and he was nuts long before he came to GB. It just seemed like the last 2 or 3 years in GB really made him think he was other worldly. Favre went through something similar, so maybe it is that some people just can't handle the spotlight. I don't recall disliking Rodgers so much until Love was drafted. But Rodgers was probably gonna be this way regardless.

And I think he's gonna learn some hard lessons. I can't see a broadcaster wanting him doing color. Jeopardy didn't want him. The Pat McAfee Show fired him. He's just not a likable guy.

 

[OldSchool101]

You only can grade what a team has….so of course if you allow just number of players to control a grading than sure but duh.

Fact is most grades are developed on how well a team did with what they had (in the opinion of the analyst) - KC had just one day2 pick. You grade that, it is short sighted to lesson a grade purely because of it.

You can call grading a group of players by total contributions “short sided”. If anything ignoring this is a team sport would fall into that category far more easily. Correct me if I’m wrong but they don’t hand out the Lombardi Trophy to 1 draft pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not a fan of Draft grades, at least not until the players 1st contract is up. The Packers pick of Love, receiving a "D" grade, is linked towards the Packers having Rodgers on the team, not because of Love's talent level. He wasn't going to play for a few years, unless injury forced him to play. It was rumored that the Colts were interested in Love, and if the Colts would have traded up and drafted him, it would have been probably a "B", maybe even an "A". If this draft was regraded today, we all know the Packers pick of Love would be an "A+". In hindsight, if the 2020 Draft was re-drafted today, Love could very well be pick #1 or #2 overall.... which is why I don't like the post Draft grades.

I get that. But if they can’t be held accountable for grading players then why grade them? Isn’t it a guess as to their future contributions? I don’t think draft grades should be limited to that draftee contribution at that moment in time. It just doesn’t make sense to me. Draft grades should involve how that player performs long term in relation to their capital expenditures

If those same graders put a D grade today on Love with the same basis that we “already had a starting QB” then I think their system is severely flawed. That’s pretty critical if you ask me and it just goes to show how limited us people think when grading others.

Jordan Love is no D, they were egregiously wrong

 

[OldSchool101]

You only can grade what a team has….so of course if you allow just number of players to control a grading than sure but duh.

Fact is most grades are developed on how well a team did with what they had (in the opinion of the analyst) - KC had just one day2 pick. You grade that, it is short sighted to lesson a grade purely because of it.

Good point. Maybe they should have 2 grades. One for each player and one for the group?

 

[OldSchool101]

That's why when one team gets 1 player who the grader thought should have been drafted way higher gets a higher grade than a team who gets 4 players who went pretty much where he thought they would go or even a bit higher. The number of players taken is only 1 part of of the evaluation.

I agree with that. But then you admit the volume of draftees should factor. It obviously does not.

 

[OldSchool101]

. We all could benefit from his example, including me. So taking my own advice, I'll limit my own future comments/replies to no more than two paragraphs, and even that is long.)

I like your idea! I can get 5 posts with each comment! It’ll make me look more involved around here as I’ve been busy lately.
Brilliant!

 

[sschind]

I get that. But if they can’t be held accountable for grading players then why grade them? Isn’t it a guess as to their future contributions? I don’t think draft grades should be limited to that draftee contribution at that moment in time. It just doesn’t make sense to me. Draft grades should involve how that player performs long term in relation to their capital expenditures

If those same graders put a D grade today on Love with the same basis that we “already had a starting QB” then I think their system is severely flawed. That’s pretty critical if you ask me and it just goes to show how limited us people think when grading others.

Jordan Love is no D, they were egregiously wrong

Is anyone held accountable for anything any more? I have no issues with revisiting draft grades 1 or 2 or 3 years later but honestly how many people do that. Very few would be my guess and I would also guess very few would give out the same grades they did post draft. I doubt many would give Love less than a B right now.

As far as draft grades involving how a player performs long term that simply isn't possible. All they have is the information they have and a guess as to how the player will perform and to be honest I think if they place too much emphasis on that guess it ruins the grade.

I look at post draft grades like this. Was the player a need and if not was he such a value at that point where need could be overlooked (Aaron Rodgers although one could argue that with Favre's waffling it was a need) Was the players college performance such that it justified his draft position and if not were there extenuating circumstances (injury, new system etc) and finally was the player equal to or at least close to other players available at the time that also fit the criteria. I personally don't put much stock in what a player is expected to do once they start playing. That part of the evaluation should be left for 1 or 2 or 3 years down the road.

 

[Poppa San]

Is anyone held accountable for anything any more? I have no issues with revisiting draft grades 1 or 2 or 3 years later but honestly how many people do that.

Search

www.packerforum.com

Knock yourself out.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I like your idea! I can get 5 posts with each comment! It’ll make me look more involved around here as I’ve been busy lately.
Brilliant!

??????? Huh?

 

[sschind]

Search

www.packerforum.com

Knock yourself out.

Im not sure what good that will do unless Old School is specifically talking about grades that were given out on this site. There are hundreds of people giving out post draft grades. I doubt a very larger percentage revisit them and an even smaller percentage would be accessible from this forum.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I agree with that. But then you admit the volume of draftees should factor. It obviously does not.

Hate to nitpick, but there is a way in which it does. When a GM drafts 13 players, and a year later 10 of those picks are still on the roster (and many of them contributing significantly) that has to count for something. Or, 13 picks, and a year later 10 players still contributing.

Any draft in which 75% or even 90% of your picks pan out has to get some sort of points, doesn't it?

 

[OldSchool101]

Search

www.packerforum.com

Knock yourself out.

This was the second post I read and I couldn’t agree more

At the moment we are all understandably preoccupied with the 2017 class. However, draft grades put out right after the players are chosen make very little sense. In reality, they are used for click bait or serve as a platform for people to just share their thoughts on the prospects

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as 2024? I actually can’t believe we got Edgerrin Cooper. I think Cooper is a VERY good LB and possibly should went in that 30-40 overall range. We’re lucky to get 1st pick at a needed position.

In 2022 I thought Quay was an early 2nd Rd selection and a little reachy at #22. Possibly closer to where Cooper just got drafted was about right. Those Georgia players often benefit from no weaknesses or having talent all around them, meaning their draft rankings are skewed a smidge imo. I thought Wyatt was a closer strike at #28 Overall in 2022, but time will tell.
A-