2024 draft discussion thread

[Heyjoe4]

Again though that isn't how you would grade a team's Day2. Say they drafted:

Cooper and Bullard still but then went Dylan Laube instead of Lloyd and Tatum Bethune instead of Hooper...you're grading the whole Day2.



The second we saw three QBs go 1-3 the chatter was STRONG possibility of some guys falling...especially if teams pushed for the 4-6th QBs and the plethora number of WRs were going to push prospects into the second. Few names that GB really needs to thank (or the organization that took them) are guys like Penix, Nix, McCarthy, Pearsall, Worthy....five guys that IMO had zero business going first round.

Yeah I forgot about all the WRs who went so early, and that there were a number of QBs who were a huge reach in round 1. It's strange, like a herd mentality - these GMs are so desperate to get their franchise QB. I do like Penix, but not at #8, and McCarthy doesn't belong in round 1, much less #11.

Oh well it worked out great for the Packers.

 

[Sanguine camper]

While it's silly to post a draft grade before guys even play, all you can reasonably do is base a grade on achieving value and hitting needs at the same time. I would think a draft grade should decline when the GM reaches for a pick in the 3rd round for Hopper who was a consensus late fifth or 6th round pick. Even Morgan was a slight reach at 25. Giving Gute a "B" on the draft using those metrics seems more than fair. Cooper and Bullard were good values at needed positions, but they aren't the entire draft.

 

[tynimiller]

While it's silly to post a draft grade before guys even play, all you can reasonably do is base a grade on achieving value and hitting needs at the same time. I would think a draft grade should decline when the GM reaches for a pick in the 3rd round for Hopper who was a consensus late fifth or 6th round pick. Even Morgan was a slight reach at 25. Giving Gute a "B" on the draft using those metrics seems more than fair. Cooper and Bullard were good values at needed positions, but they aren't the entire draft.

You're absolutely right it is all relative to the person and their prospect rankings!! Like Morgan as an example, many here got sick of me bringing him up clear back to the end of 2023 calendar year as a first round guy...I obviously would grade Packers first round significantly different than someone that saw him as a second rounder.


Unrelated additional thought...
The issue I have is folks just thinking because it's one pick the grade must be lower vs a collection of three picks...or if you happen to be grading a team for a day that had four picks letting one mega good pick by your definition overwrite the perhaps terrible other two or three. Those approaches miss the mark to me.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You're absolutely right it is all relative to the person and their prospect rankings!! Like Morgan as an example, many here got sick of me bringing him up clear back to the end of 2023 calendar year as a first round guy...I obviously would grade Packers first round significantly different than someone that saw him as a second rounder.


Unrelated additional thought...
The issue I have is folks just thinking because it's one pick the grade must be lower vs a collection of three picks...or if you happen to be grading a team for a day that had four picks letting one mega good pick by your definition overwrite the perhaps terrible other two or three. Those approaches miss the mark to me.

Sanguine said it best, it's silly to post draft grades, or to take them seriously, before the guys actually play. But we need something to feed our football fix when there are no games, and the draft captures the most attention, and the most imagination. Sportswriters have to give us something to discuss/debate, even if it's meaningless in the moment.

 

[sschind]

FWIW Chad Reuter predicts/projects Cooper and Bullard to make the defensive all rookie team.

Per NFL.com

2024 NFL All-Rookie Team: Projecting 14 instant-impact newcomers on defense/special teams

www.nfl.com

 

[tynimiller]

Sanguine said it best, it's silly to post draft grades, or to take them seriously, before the guys actually play. But we need something to feed our football fix when there are no games, and the draft captures the most attention, and the most imagination. Sportswriters have to give us something to discuss/debate, even if it's meaningless in the moment.

Disagree so long as someone takes it for what it is, it's a grading based on the reviewer's prospect ratings. Only fools grade drafts immediately by any other metric.

 

[tynimiller]

FWIW Chad Reuter predicts/projects Cooper and Bullard to make the defensive all rookie team.

Per NFL.com

2024 NFL All-Rookie Team: Projecting 14 instant-impact newcomers on defense/special teams

www.nfl.com

Playing time is the biggest way for this to happen and both should see tons.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Good point. I'm just surprised those guys lasted to the second round. Well this year was heavy on QBs and OL, so some guys probably slipped. But Cooper and Bullard seem like excellent picks at excellent value.

This was a damned good year to not need a QB or a WR; it allowed us to sit back and wait for (probably) the best LB in the draft to fall to us, and (arguably) the best safety. It's the sign of a well-managed team - no desperate immediate needs at amy position, with the possible exception of safety, but there were plenty to pick from on Day Two when we had all those picks.

 

[gopkrs]

I think this draft was great. But how great will depend on how good Morgan is. And I have not read anything that gives me any idea of what kind of pro he will be. Just going to have to wait and see how he plays. We could have gone in a couple of directions with that number 1 pick. I'm very glad we went O line. But... Also, I see a number of people hanging their hats on Dillard. I am very pessimistic about that and hope if he doesn't show something right away; we don't waste a lot of time with him.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Also, I see a number of people hanging their hats on Dillard. I am very pessimistic about that and hope if he doesn't show something right away; we don't waste a lot of time with him.

I don't get all this Dillard love that pops up here and there.

High hopes? Sure, why not?

Optimism? OK, glass half full. I get it.

But actully hsving high expectations? I don't know what the basis is of that.

The best predictor of future results is past performance, and his past performance has been terrible. He was rated 108 out of 136 OTs in 2023. How much better is he capable of getting? I trust our coaching staff to get the most out of him that he has in him, but I'm skeptical there is enough in there to make it into anything special.

I agree that signing him was a shrewd move, a "low downside, high upside" shot in the dark, and completely worth it. If he pays oiff, great - if he doesn't, oh well. Not like we were the ones who wasted a 1st round pick on the dude. If he makes the team as #10 on the depth chart, I'll be happy. That'd be a win, IMO.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Yeah I forgot about all the WRs who went so early, and that there were a number of QBs who were a huge reach in round 1. It's strange, like a herd mentality - these GMs are so desperate to get their franchise QB. I do like Penix, but not at #8,

I like Penix at #8 for the Falcons, in this situation, but only because of their current roster and depth chart. I think he has a lot of potential in the right system, but not Year One. Maybe even not Year Two. But if they're content to get whatever they can out of Cousins for the next year or two while they build a roster, and keep Penix on the Green Bay timeline (Rodgers, then Love, sitting and learning for a year or two), then I think they might get a lot of value out of that pick a few years down the road.

I honestly don't know enough about their coaching staff to know how well they may or may not do with him, but if that was part of their thinking, I respect their guts. There were a lot of pundits toward the end of last season explainimg to one another about how Green Bay may be showing the whole league a new way to develop quarterbacks. Maybe Atlanta is one of the first to ry to copy it.

and McCarthy doesn't belong in round 1, much less #11.

They say Napoleon was the man who coined the phrase "never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake." I always enjoy silently watching Minnesota do all this "Viking stuff". The Sam Darnold era may be here to stay for a while, unless they can work a trade for Fields.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Disagree so long as someone takes it for what it is, it's a grading based on the reviewer's prospect ratings. Only fools grade drafts immediately by any other metric.

Using that metric I agree - based on the reviewer's rating of the prospect, and I'd add, how it may impact the team. And I only add that because most grades are done based largely on the prospect rating, but also with consideration for team fit/need.

These grades are interesting in the short run. But hey, as I said, we need something to talk about and sportswriters need something to write.

And FWIW, I wasn't dissing the excellent pre-draft analyses you post. You put a lot of work into those and they are fun to read and follow. The draft is a big deal and I don't think anyone here, certainly not me, would disagree with that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I like Penix at #8 for the Falcons, in this situation, but only because of their current roster and depth chart. I think he has a lot of potential in the right system, but not Year One. Maybe even not Year Two. But if they're content to get whatever they can out of Cousins for the next year or two while they build a roster, and keep Penix on the Green Bay timeline (Rodgers, then Love, sitting and learning for a year or two), then I think they might get a lot of value out of that pick a few years down the road.

I honestly don't know enough about their coaching staff to know how well they may or may not do with him, but if that was part of their thinking, I respect their guts. There were a lot of pundits toward the end of last season explainimg to one another about how Green Bay may be showing the whole league a new way to develop quarterbacks. Maybe Atlanta is one of the first to ry to copy it.




They say Napoleon was the man who coined the phrase "never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake." I always enjoy silently watching Minnesota do all this "Viking stuff". The Sam Darnold era may be here to stay for a while, unless they can work a trade for Fields.

I'll reply in reverse order:

I never heard that quote from Napoleon. Certainly a classic. If the Queens are smart, and they aren't, they'll play Darnold for an entire season and let McCarthy learn. My guess is they'll lose 5 or 6 in a row and throw McCarthy to the wolves. Fields is an interesting idea though. As for McCarthy - well I'll believe he's an NFL QB when I see it. His college tape is worthless. He just played for an excellent MI team.

And I did like Penix a lot before the draft (honestly). I just didn't see him going at #8. From the Falcons' perspective, it was probably a shrewd move, no matter how much it was panned. I don't think Penix would have made it to round 2. And Cousins is getting up there. He's bound to start showing his age in a year or two, and Penix should be ready. Watch out for the Falcons this year and maybe years to come.

 

[tynimiller]

I think this draft was great. But how great will depend on how good Morgan is. And I have not read anything that gives me any idea of what kind of pro he will be. Just going to have to wait and see how he plays. We could have gone in a couple of directions with that number 1 pick. I'm very glad we went O line. But... Also, I see a number of people hanging their hats on Dillard. I am very pessimistic about that and hope if he doesn't show something right away; we don't waste a lot of time with him.

How does a draft hinge on Morgan alone?

Morgan could never crack the starting lineup and be cut before his final year of rookie deal......

Bullard, Cooper both become solid level starters who get a second contract....Lloyd is a 700 yd 7TD paring to Jacobs and then we get a solid depth piece out of maybe Hopper, Monk or King.....that'd be a dynamite 2024 draft.

 

[Heyjoe4]

How does a draft hinge on Morgan alone?

Morgan could never crack the starting lineup and be cut before his final year of rookie deal......

Bullard, Cooper both become solid level starters who get a second contract....Lloyd is a 700 yd 7TD paring to Jacobs and then we get a solid depth piece out of maybe Hopper, Monk or King.....that'd be a dynamite 2024 draft.

Don't read so much into a comment. I don't think gopkrs was basing his "great draft" comment on Morgan alone. He was just commenting on Morgan.

 

[tynimiller]

Don't read so much into a comment. I don't think gopkrs was basing his "great draft" comment on Morgan alone. He was just commenting on Morgan.

Possibly. I'm only one coffee into the day here so likely need to wake up a bit more LOL

 

[Heyjoe4]

Possibly. I'm only one coffee into the day here so likely need to wake up a bit more LOL

That's what I Thought Ty! You seem a little grouchy today. Well, we're all guilty of that now and then. It's all good.

 

[OldSchool101]

I wouldn’t really grade it much different for KC that was a dynamite pick and I say A+

Relative to slot and such I likely would say straight A or A- for ours merely for the fact RBs are over drafted often and plenty exist (and I love Lloyd) and Hopper pick was odd to my board and I likely would have given his pick alone a C or so

Well technically you disagree with our FO then. They passed on that one KC draft pick 3 separate times. We passed on him TWICE in Round 2. If he was projecting as a generational level player I doubt that happens. Thats what an A+ is for me with 1 selection. Although I admit they toss those draft grades around like they are Swiss Moca packets.

I look at Day 2 grades like this. How does the TOTAL group impact the team over this season? Over the next 4 seasons? Over a career.

If I get 10 seperate Day 2 draft selections there’s a big chance that a couple have big time success. Not do so much with 1 player selection (using as a hypothetical to show a value point)

 

[Heyjoe4]

Well technically you disagree with our FO then. They passed on that one KC draft pick 3 separate times. We passed on him TWICE in Round 2. If he was projecting as a generational level player I doubt that happens. Thats what an A+ is for me with 1 selection. Although I admit they toss those draft grades around like they are Swiss Moca packets.

I look at Day 2 grades like this. How does the TOTAL group impact the team over this season? Over the next 4 seasons? Over a career.

If I get 10 seperate Day 2 draft selections there’s a big chance that a couple have big time success. Not do so much with 1 player selection (using as a hypothetical to show a value point)

I agree that a draft is better graded (accepting for a minute that grading a draft is important) based on a group of players taken, their perceived value at the time, and team fit.

So if all KC had was one selection, that can be graded. I don't know who the player in question is. But when it comes to draft grading, especially past round 1 or 2, Ty's A+ is just as valid as my F- and that's just for illustration. I don't know who the player is.

 

[tynimiller]

Well technically you disagree with our FO then. They passed on that one KC draft pick 3 separate times. We passed on him TWICE in Round 2. If he was projecting as a generational level player I doubt that happens. Thats what an A+ is for me with 1 selection. Although I admit they toss those draft grades around like they are Swiss Moca packets.

I look at Day 2 grades like this. How does the TOTAL group impact the team over this season? Over the next 4 seasons? Over a career.

If I get 10 seperate Day 2 draft selections there’s a big chance that a couple have big time success. Not do so much with 1 player selection (using as a hypothetical to show a value point)

But the claim that by default number of picks beat one pick purely by grading is as I have said short sighted at minimum. Just because a team has two first round picks doesn't mean they did better Day1 than a team with 1...

For those that perhaps aren't familiar with the pick being discussed for KC Kingsley Suamataia was the LT for the BYU team that steadily grew and grew in draft predictions and late in the game it seemed around the league he was in that end of Day1 or second round range with guys like Beebe, Morgan, Barton, Paul, Fisher, JPJ,,,that cluster that folks wouldn't be surprised if they went as high as top 20 or so or slip into late second round. Just so happens I loved Suamataia a lot, and he finished at #54 I believe or so on my big board and I had him finish ahead of Paul and Fisher who actually ended up on Day2 going before him.

He's a 6'4' 326lb young prospect who started 2022 on the RT and was one of the cleanest and elite level pass blockers in college football...then in 2023 BYU flipped him to the left side and he put forth an even better season...

PFF had him graded out at 86.1 in pass blocking for 2023...he had just one "bad" game against southern Utah...he was a better run blocker on the right side in 2022 (74.2) than he was on left side in 2022 (52.9) but absolutely exhibits the strength (31 reps) and quick feet to make plays in the running game at the next level.

He fit the GB type for sure having just a touch over the weight but his body frame, high RAS (9.35) along with 34.25 arms for sure had him on any logical minded GB fan's radar...toss in his HIGH level play on both sides and he was for sure a guy I circled if we didn't go Tackle day 1 and he was there would be a Packer type for Day2.

 

[Heyjoe4]

But the claim that by default number of picks beat one pick purely by grading is as I have said short sighted at minimum. Just because a team has two first round picks doesn't mean they did better Day1 than a team with 1...

For those that perhaps aren't familiar with the pick being discussed for KC Kingsley Suamataia was the LT for the BYU team that steadily grew and grew in draft predictions and late in the game it seemed around the league he was in that end of Day1 or second round range with guys like Beebe, Morgan, Barton, Paul, Fisher, JPJ,,,that cluster that folks wouldn't be surprised if they went as high as top 20 or so or slip into late second round. Just so happens I loved Suamataia a lot, and he finished at #54 I believe or so on my big board and I had him finish ahead of Paul and Fisher who actually ended up on Day2 going before him.

He's a 6'4' 326lb young prospect who started 2022 on the RT and was one of the cleanest and elite level pass blockers in college football...then in 2023 BYU flipped him to the left side and he put forth an even better season...

PFF had him graded out at 86.1 in pass blocking for 2023...he had just one "bad" game against southern Utah...he was a better run blocker on the right side in 2022 (74.2) than he was on left side in 2022 (52.9) but absolutely exhibits the strength (31 reps) and quick feet to make plays in the running game at the next level.

He fit the GB type for sure having just a touch over the weight but his body frame, high RAS (9.35) along with 34.25 arms for sure had him on any logical minded GB fan's radar...toss in his HIGH level play on both sides and he was for sure a guy I circled if we didn't go Tackle day 1 and he was there would be a Packer type for Day2.

Sounds like he was a great value at #54, although I admit I didn't know who he was until now. The name sounds somewhat familiar, and I'm sure he was a first round pick in one of the bazillion pre-draft predictions. It will be interesting to see how he fares in KC.

On another subject (sort of) - did KC need LT help? I thought their O line was solid.

 

[tynimiller]

Sounds like he was a great value at #54, although I admit I didn't know who he was until now. The name sounds somewhat familiar, and I'm sure he was a first round pick in one of the bazillion pre-draft predictions. It will be interesting to see how he fares in KC.

On another subject (sort of) - did KC need LT help? I thought their O line was solid.

KC has been piecing together a OL for a while...there middle spots I actually like a lot of what they've done...but their tackles seem to be piece milled together and I suspect Kingsley will be one of their starters this next season I bet.

 

[OldSchool101]

But the claim that by default number of picks beat one pick purely by grading is as I have said short sighted at minimum. Just because a team has two first round picks doesn't mean they did better Day1 than a team with 1...

For those that perhaps aren't familiar with the pick being discussed for KC Kingsley Suamataia was the LT for the BYU team that steadily grew and grew in draft predictions and late in the game it seemed around the league he was in that end of Day1 or second round range with guys like Beebe, Morgan, Barton, Paul, Fisher, JPJ,,,that cluster that folks wouldn't be surprised if they went as high as top 20 or so or slip into late second round. Just so happens I loved Suamataia a lot, and he finished at #54 I believe or so on my big board and I had him finish ahead of Paul and Fisher who actually ended up on Day2 going before him.

He's a 6'4' 326lb young prospect who started 2022 on the RT and was one of the cleanest and elite level pass blockers in college football...then in 2023 BYU flipped him to the left side and he put forth an even better season...

PFF had him graded out at 86.1 in pass blocking for 2023...he had just one "bad" game against southern Utah...he was a better run blocker on the right side in 2022 (74.2) than he was on left side in 2022 (52.9) but absolutely exhibits the strength (31 reps) and quick feet to make plays in the running game at the next level.

He fit the GB type for sure having just a touch over the weight but his body frame, high RAS (9.35) along with 34.25 arms for sure had him on any logical minded GB fan's radar...toss in his HIGH level play on both sides and he was for sure a guy I circled if we didn't go Tackle day 1 and he was there would be a Packer type for Day2.

I have no problem with anyone putting a Draft grade on a specific player. It has very little to do with me liking or not liking one player. Yet the topic is DAY2 grade. If the potential impact of the entire group TOGETHER isn’t taken into account, then the topic shouldn’t be Day2. It should be

Who was the best SINGLE rated player drafted for their position. They are totally separate arguments. I might agree with you on that one.

Although I rarely agree with draft grades anyway. PFF graded the Packers with a D in 2020. They said Love is a MASSIVE gamble and Runyon would never exceed backup

PFF just got a D- by me. Let’s see in a couple of years if pick #63 outplays all our Day 2 picks. We’ll have a side bet

 

[tynimiller]

I have no problem with anyone putting a Draft grade on a specific player. It has very little to do with me liking or not liking one player. Yet the topic is DAY2 grade. If the potential impact of the entire group TOGETHER isn’t taken into account, then the topic shouldn’t be Day2. It should be

Who was the best SINGLE rated player drafted for their position. They are totally separate arguments. I might agree with you on that one.

Although I rarely agree with draft grades anyway. PFF graded the Packers with a D in 2020. They said Love is a MASSIVE gamble and Runyon would never exceed backup

PFF just got a D- by me. Let’s see in a couple of years if pick #63 outplays all our Day 2 picks. We’ll have a side bet

LOL I Loved Love as a prospect but absolutely cannot refute that he was a massive gamble.....you're actually making my case for me so just keep posting LOL

 

[Heyjoe4]

LOL I Loved Love as a prospect but absolutely cannot refute that he was a massive gamble.....you're actually making my case for me so just keep posting LOL

Yeah I think the case has been made that not too much thought be put into assessing a draft for a few years. I gave the Love pick a C at the time I think - well after a lot of swearing and throwing **** around. Case in point, eh?

At the time, I thought Gluten meant to replace Rodgers sooner rather than later. That season ended pretty badly and there was talk that Rodgers was slipping. In hindsight, maybe Gluten meant all along to have Love study behind Rodgers for 2 or 3 years. In one of the rare cases where I agree with Rodgers - Gluten should have told Rodgers what he was planning before he drafted Love. Yeah Rodgers won two more MVPs, but those felt like revenge awards and Rodgers was just as happy winning a "spite" MVP as he would have been winning the SB. Gluten and Rodgers never mended that bridge.