2024 draft discussion thread

[OldSchool101]

Javon Bullard was about right at #58 overall. The knock on him was size, yet almost everyone that has played with him said you wouldn’t say he played small. Along with Cooper DeJean, his versatility to play both CB or Safety made him very appealing. He’s really a CB. You really get an assertive player that fit both roles here. That multi role capability alone lifts Bullard’s grade.
B+

 

[OldSchool101]

Marshawn Lloyd has virtually no miles. I thought we’d get him in Rd4 in some capacity. Yet there are plenty of people in the know that say he was one of the top 2-3 RB’s in this draft class. As far as need? Maybe a tick off the rating for 2024 if we keep Dillon, but he’s really Dillon’s replacement in 2025. Lloyd will be fully primed next year and at a 4.47 40 yard, he adds a break away speed component that AJ Dillon lacks.
This system functions off play action and outside zone running is a key to our attack. That is EXACTLY one of Marshawns’ strengths.

It’s also really important to have depth at RB in postseason. We learned that with James Starks. I fully expect us to reach Postseason now. Starks was a catalyst for our ground attack in our lead up to our last SB Win.
Jim Nagy said he was by far the best RB healthy at the Senior Bowl and was already one of his favorites and an automatic to make Senior Bowl. His thoughts were he wouldn’t have been surprised to see Lloyd go later Rd1 to earlier Rd2. He also mentioned it didn’t shock him to slip some due to lack of emphasis at the RB position lately. Nagy would’ve graded this an A imo. I gave that selection 2 ticks less for position and being a backup in his Rookie season.
B+

 

[OldSchool101]

Ty’ron Hopper likely was our first bigger surprise at #91. What many don’t know is Hopper was emerging as one of the best LB’s in College in 2022. His 23% TFL rate is “Near-Elite” in the SEC. He partly flew under radar because he battled an ankle injury and missed some time last year. He’s the antithesis of Blake Martinez. Hoppers strength is his aggressive, down-hill playing style. If used properly to his strengths, he’ll perform at a high level. If not, he’s a reach.
B- leaning C+

 

[OldSchool101]

Jordan Morgan is probably the most well known as he was on many people’s radar and got attention from multiple teams. I’d argue that at worst we have a Player who at Guard will be a Probowl alternate or better within a couple seasons. At best we have a starting LT, which is a premier position especially when it appears we have a Star QB
B leaning B+

 

[Sanguine camper]

Marshawn Lloyd has virtually no miles. I thought we’d get him in Rd4 in some capacity. Yet there are plenty of people in the know that say he was one of the top 2-3 RB’s in this draft class. As far as need? Maybe a tick off the rating for 2024 if we keep Dillon, but he’s really Dillon’s replacement in 2025. Lloyd will be fully primed next year and at a 4.47 40 yard, he adds a break away speed component that AJ Dillon lacks.
This system functions off play action and outside zone running is a key to our attack. That is EXACTLY one of Marshawns’ strengths.

It’s also really important to have depth at RB in postseason. We learned that with James Starks. I fully expect us to reach Postseason now. Starks was a catalyst for our ground attack in our lead up to our last SB Win.
Jim Nagy said he was by far the best RB healthy at the Senior Bowl and was already one of his favorites and an automatic to make Senior Bowl. His thoughts were he wouldn’t have been surprised to see Lloyd go later Rd1 to earlier Rd2. He also mentioned it didn’t shock him to slip some due to lack of emphasis at the RB position lately. Nagy would’ve graded this an A imo. I gave that selection 2 ticks less for position and being a backup in his Rookie season.
B+

The knock on Lloyd is that he's a fumbler. Nothing will get you on the bench faster than putting the ball on the ground. With Lloyd, it's been his fumbles per attempt that's scary. His rather low number of carries kept the fumbling from being more of an anvil around his neck. The other concern that I have with him is his propensity to spin to avoid tacklers. That might work in the PAC 12 but it will get you clobbered more often than not in the NFL. Lloyd has a lot of learning to do. I expect him to get relatively few touches this year.

 

[OldSchool101]

The knock on Lloyd is that he's a fumbler. Nothing will get you on the bench faster than putting the ball on the ground. With Lloyd, it's been his fumbles per attempt that's scary. His rather low number of carries kept the fumbling from being more of an anvil around his neck. The other concern that I have with him is his propensity to spin to avoid tacklers. That might work in the PAC 12 but it will get you clobbered more often than not in the NFL. Lloyd has a lot of learning to do. I expect him to get relatively few touches this year.

That’s a good point.
Have you looked more in depth at the cause of those or are they correctable? Idk
Do you think that issue is enough to still knock a later 3rd round grade on him? Like drop him rounds or something?

Ill start. While no one can see the future. I doubt the Packers spend an #88 if they thought he would fumble repeatedly or if they thought he was helpless. This was almost exactly the argument with Jordan Love btw. That INT concern turned out to be a largely blown way out of proportion snd if memory serves me we had complaints he was the worst in College football.
Is it possible that’s the case here a bit of overblown concern. Idk. I do know his carry count is low for drafted RB which tells me that samples are not kind to % on that stuff. Double his snap count it could be in normal range etc.

Lastly I think those concerns hit fans harder than our Staff. In GB I see a pretty capable and confident group with good success with our RB’s room. I think that #88 selection was the Top 50 area selection on our board that Brian spoke of when he picked up a 3rd Rounder in the Rasul trade.

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting article on Marshawn and our mindset on fumbling

https://www.Packers news.com/story/...away-if-he-cures-fumbling-issues/73599733007/

I’ll admit that I don’t know how they record fumbles in the NFL but I think it’s “Fumbles Lost”
In 2023 Dalvin Cook lost 4 fumbles across 264 attempts. He was elected to the Probowl (1.52%)

22’/23’ Marshawn Lloyd lost 4 fumbles across 227 combined attempts. (1.76%). So if he loses 1 less fumble he’s 1.32% and well below Cook.

Not saying to ignore it, but 1-2 more fumbles across a years worth of workload can kill that stat. Marshawn should get help in that regard, but I don’t think it’s a situation where it kills his draft grade either.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As far as 2024? I actually can’t believe we got Edgerrin Cooper. I think Cooper is a VERY good LB and possibly should went in that 30-40 overall range. We’re lucky to get 1st pick at a needed position.

In 2022 I thought Quay was an early 2nd Rd selection and a little reachy at #22. Possibly closer to where Cooper just got drafted was about right. Those Georgia players often benefit from no weaknesses or having talent all around them, meaning their draft rankings are skewed a smidge imo. I thought Wyatt was a closer strike at #28 Overall in 2022, but time will tell.
A-

Overall I agree with your assessment on all three players. It's been said here before, including by me, Cooper and a few other guys dropped because of the run on QBs, OL, and WRs. In a year not so skewed, Cooper probably goes later in round 1. Anyway, Gluten got a lot of value out of his picks. Now we'll see. But yeah, I love the Cooper pick, especially as a complement to Walker.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That’s a good point.
Have you looked more in depth at the cause of those or are they correctable? Idk
Do you think that issue is enough to still knock a later 3rd round grade on him? Like drop him rounds or something?

Ill start. While no one can see the future. I doubt the Packers spend an #88 if they thought he would fumble repeatedly or if they thought he was helpless. This was almost exactly the argument with Jordan Love btw. That INT concern turned out to be a largely blown way out of proportion snd if memory serves me we had complaints he was the worst in College football.
Is it possible that’s the case here a bit of overblown concern. Idk. I do know his carry count is low for drafted RB which tells me that samples are not kind to % on that stuff. Double his snap count it could be in normal range etc.

Lastly I think those concerns hit fans harder than our Staff. In GB I see a pretty capable and confident group with good success with our RB’s room. I think that #88 selection was the Top 50 area selection on our board that Brian spoke of when he picked up a 3rd Rounder in the Rasul trade.

I'm not concerned about Lloyd's college fumble stats. I think that's fixable with NFL coaching. He'll still put the ball on the ground more than anyone likes his rookie year, but he's not the feature back (yet) and he'll learn. Bench a guy a few times and he'll usually correct. Or he'll be gone, but I doubt that in this case.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Hate to nitpick, but there is a way in which it does. When a GM drafts 13 players, and a year later 10 of those picks are still on the roster (and many of them contributing significantly) that has to count for something. Or, 13 picks, and a year later 10 players still contributing.

Any draft in which 75% or even 90% of your picks pan out has to get some sort of points, doesn't it?

You just put this out-of-control draft grading discussion in perspective. Debating about how a draft should be graded is a fool's errand - 13 picks versus 11 picks versus 4 picks. I mean we all do it, but it's not worth much. Ugh.

To your point 13, better to pay at least some attention to how last year's class fared. Even better, wait 3 or 4 years and then assess.

 

[tynimiller]

Marshawn Lloyd has virtually no miles.

For those curious just how little this is.....for reference many will get:

AJ Dillon three seasons at BC in college he amassed 845 rushing attempts.
Lloyd in his three seasons (split between USC and SC) he amassed just 291 attempts - Dillon had only one year in college where he had less than that LOL

 

[Sanguine camper]

Interesting article on Marshawn and our mindset on fumbling

https://www.Packers news.com/story/...away-if-he-cures-fumbling-issues/73599733007/

I’ll admit that I don’t know how they record fumbles in the NFL but I think it’s “Fumbles Lost”
In 2023 Dalvin Cook lost 4 fumbles across 264 attempts. He was elected to the Probowl (1.52%)

22’/23’ Marshawn Lloyd lost 4 fumbles across 227 combined attempts. (1.76%). So if he loses 1 less fumble he’s 1.32% and well below Cook.

Not saying to ignore it, but 1-2 more fumbles across a years worth of workload can kill that stat. Marshawn should get help in that regard, but I don’t think it’s a situation where it kills his draft grade either.

Lloyd fumbled 8 times in 325 touches during college for a scary 2.5% fumble rate. 4 of those fumbles were lost which is below normal. About 2/3 of fumbles are lost on average. That stat also varies with receives generally losing their fumbles more often. If he doesn't improve that fumble rate he would fumble 4 times if he touches the ball 162 times this coming year and most likely lose 3 of those. Fumbles aren't quite as devastating as interceptions because the run backs tend to be shorter. I guess is it worth 3 turnovers to get him about 9 to 10 touches per game? He probably won't see the ball that much so the up side of his explosiveness could be looked at as a price to pay with several turnovers.

 

[Heyjoe4]

For those curious just how little this is.....for reference many will get:

AJ Dillon three seasons at BC in college he amassed 845 rushing attempts.
Lloyd in his three seasons (split between USC and SC) he amassed just 291 attempts - Dillon had only one year in college where he had less than that LOL

Thanks to you and OS. I didn't know that. Any reason why his carries would be so low?

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks to you and OS. I didn't know that. Any reason why his carries would be so low?

Offensive structure of the teams he was on.....last year you gotta remember they had Caleb Williams as their QB

His time in South Carolina saw him in 2022 in an offense that had Rattler as the QB and focus was passing also, and in 2021 he was buried as an underclassman and decent backs ahead which knew the system more.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Lloyd fumbled about once for every 40 touches in college. That's serious butterfingers territory. If he has a high ratio of explosive plays, that fumble rate could be tolerated if he doesn't get a lot of carries. I would hope he can improve that weakness, otherwise he'll ultimately wind up in the coach's dog house and contribute to the third round curse.

 

[Thirteen Below]

While no one can see the future. I doubt the Packers spend an #88 if they thought he would fumble repeatedly or if they thought he was helpless....

Lastly I think those concerns hit fans harder than our Staff. In GB I see a pretty capable and confident group with good success with our RB’s room.

Fumbilitis is sometimes a curable affliction, depending on the root cause. Remember Ahman Green - he fumbled, on average, every 52 carries both in Seattle and in Green Bay; once for roughly every 250 yards of producrtion. Then for some reason, he never dropped a ball again in his final 2 seasons in Hiouston.

I don't think he ever had fewer than 4 fumbles in a single year with the Packers, and a couple of times had 7. His total fumbles, his ratio of fumbles per carry, and fumbles per yards all would have him at or very near the top of the NFL every year in the present day.

Obviously, nobody on the team was happy about it, and as much as Sherman *****ed about it the Packers learned to live with it. They just decided that the production was worth the price, I guess. 1 fumble for every 250 rushing yards.

Green Bay has probably studied the film very closely, and may feel that they've spotted a couple of technical issues that they think they can coach up. Or, they may feel the upside is so good (so "Green-like") that it's worth the risk. Or, maybe a combination of both. Way I see it, the front office and offensive coaching staff have put up one hell of a track record these past few years, and if they think this was the right guy, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. They've earned my trust and my faith.

 

[Sanguine camper]

A lot of wide receivers improve their drop rate after a season or two of coaching. While fumbling is a little different, it isn't outrageous to think Lloyd can get more surehanded. The Packers have really been good at protecting the ball for many seasons. I'd hate to see that change.

 

[OldSchool101]

You just put this out-of-control draft grading discussion in perspective. Debating about how a draft should be graded is a fool's errand - 13 picks versus 11 picks versus 4 picks. I mean we all do it, but it's not worth much. Ugh.

To your point 13, better to pay at least some attention to how last year's class fared. Even better, wait 3 or 4 years and then assess.

That’s exactly my point. Although I do think IF there is going to be a grading system, that there should be grade involving the impact of the group. Meaning grading 1 player to potentially 6 players is foolish. I saw the grade on Minnesota for Day2 as B+. Someone explain that to me and how they rank better than our 4 collective players. I’ll be as cordial as possible in any response to defend the Vikings Day2 selection(s). GB apparently really sucks at drafting, we got a worse grade (B)

 

[Heyjoe4]

Offensive structure of the teams he was on.....last year you gotta remember they had Caleb Williams as their QB

His time in South Carolina saw him in 2022 in an offense that had Rattler as the QB and focus was passing also, and in 2021 he was buried as an underclassman and decent backs ahead which knew the system more.

Thanks for the detail Ty. I forgot he was at USC the same time as Williams, so yeah, that would have been a pass heavy offense. There's probably some local bias as well - I'm just used to Badger football with an emphasis on running. The college game is changing though with a lot more passing.

Anyway, good to get a guy who hasn't taken a lot of hits. That may explain his tendency to fumble. He just hasn't had enough carries or been hit enough different ways to know how to carry the ball in all situations. It's all good news for the Packers actually. They will certainly teach him ball security. He may get benched a few times, but he'll learn.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That’s exactly my point. Although I do think IF there is going to be a grading system, that there should be grade involving the impact of the group. Meaning grading 1 player to potentially 6 players is foolish. I saw the grade on Minnesota for Day2 as B+. Someone explain that to me and how they rank better than our 4 collective players. I’ll be as cordial as possible in any response to defend the Vikings Day2 selection(s). GB apparently really sucks at drafting, we got a worse grade (B)

First of all, and I think there's consensus on this, draft grades are a bit of a fool's errand. But we all follow the mock drafts, we all follow the draft, and we all read the various grades and some of us offer our own grades.

But when it comes to handing out these arbitrary grades, the number of picks a team has is not relevant. Beyond round 1 (if that) it's still a process with a lot of built in bias. Taking into account the number of picks a team has takes that a step further into irrelevance.

 

[Heyjoe4]

A lot of wide receivers improve their drop rate after a season or two of coaching. While fumbling is a little different, it isn't outrageous to think Lloyd can get more surehanded. The Packers have really been good at protecting the ball for many seasons. I'd hate to see that change.

Well said. Didn't Adams drop a good number of passes in his first two years? And Ty has pointed out that Lloyd didn't get a lot of carries in college. I believe ball security can be taught to a RB. And if the RB is smart, he'll learn quickly how to hold onto the ball. I like the Lloyd pick and am not concerned about his fumbling (well until it costs the Packers a W.....).

 

[OldSchool101]

But when it comes to handing out these arbitrary grades, the number of picks a team has is not relevant. Beyond round 1 (if that) it's still a process with a lot of built in bias. Taking into account the number of picks a team has takes that a step further into irrelevance.

Apparently that’s what The NFL draft grading system believes also!
I was sarcastically referencing the Vikings. Having Zero Day2 selections MN got a better grade than us!
Look at post #768 attachment above. Numbers of players in grading a draft class are not only relevant, it’s now at criminal levels.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Apparently that’s what The NFL draft grading system believes also!
I was sarcastically referencing the Vikings. Having Zero Day2 selections MN got a better grade than us!
Look at post #768 attachment above. Numbers of players in grading a draft class are not only relevant, it’s now at criminal levels.

Whatever. I've wasted too much time on this subject.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Well said. Didn't Adams drop a good number of passes in his first two years?

Many have gone through that. Remember James Jones? The first year or two he was here, his nickname was "Alligator Arms". Anytime someone was talking about the Packers and mentioned "ol' Alligatior Arms", everyone knew they were talking about Jones. He struggled badly his rookie year, then improved in Year Two before sucking again in Year 3 and 4.

A lot of fans were really pissed that Ted gave him a decent second contract, but it wasn't as good deal as he'd hoped for, and there was a lot of acrimony. In the end, he had no choice but to shut up and take it, because he learned the hard way that he wasn't worth as much on the open market as he and hs dad thought he was.

Driver went through the same learning curve - dropped a lot of passes his first year, then improved his second year, and by Year 3 and 4 had grown into the DD we all remember. But that first season, I remember a camera angle showing Favre's face as he released a pass to Driver, and he was literally wincing. Could hardly stand to look, and then he burst into a big grin when DD caught it.

I believe ball security can be taught to a RB. And if the RB is smart, he'll learn quickly how to hold onto the ball. I like the Lloyd pick and am not concerned about his fumbling (well until it costs the Packers a W.....).

I love the Lloyd pick too, but I'm not quite as confident as you seem to be that he'll learn. Ahman Green never did, at least in his 7 years in Green Bay. It wasn't until he went tio Houston that he figured it out.

But every player is different. Different players may have different underlying reasons for their tendency to fumble, and some may be easier to coach up than others. But either way, our scouting and coaching staff seem to think they can work with it, so I give them the benefit of the doubt. In a few months, we'll start to see how it may work out.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Many have gone through that. Remember James Jones? The first year or two he was here, his nickname was "Alligator Arms". Anytime someone was talking about the Packers and mentioned "ol' Alligatior Arms", everyone knew they were talking about Jones. He struggled badly his rookie year, then improved in Year Two before sucking again in Year 3 and 4.

A lot of fans were really pissed that Ted gave him a decent second contract, but it wasn't as good deal as he'd hoped for, and there was a lot of acrimony. In the end, he had no choice but to shut up and take it, because he learned the hard way that he wasn't worth as much on the open market as he and hs dad thought he was.

Driver went through the same learning curve - dropped a lot of passes his first year, then improved his second year, and by Year 3 and 4 had grown into the DD we all remember. But that first season, I remember a camera angle showing Favre's face as he released a pass to Driver, and he was literally wincing. Could hardly stand to look, and then he burst into a big grin when DD caught it.


I love the Lloyd pick too, but I'm not quite as confident as you seem to be that he'll learn. Ahman Green never did, at least in his 7 years in Green Bay. It wasn't until he went tio Houston that he figured it out.

But every player is different. Different players may have different underlying reasons for their tendency to fumble, and some may be easier to coach up than others. But either way, our scouting and coaching staff seem to think they can work with it, so I give them the benefit of the doubt. In a few months, we'll start to see how it may work out.

Agree about Lloyd. Love the pick, understand the problems with fumbles and believe that can be fixed. But yeah, sometimes not and Ahman Green never did get it while in GB.

We'll find out soon enough. He'll get coaching, and a lot of practice reps where seasoned defenders practice their ball stripping techniques. The trial by fire comes in the games. If he fumbles in a real game, he'll ride the bench. That's usually motivation for a guy to start paying attention to ball security. He gets it or his career in GB is short. I believe he'll get it.