2022 Salary Cap Riddle/Thread/Discussion

[Pokerbrat2000]

I heard its closer to the cheerleader's lockeroom so I'll have that going for me...

Good luck with them, I hope you score more than they do!

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[tynimiller]

I also kinda sense this as well, he will play somewhere else but may not necessarily want to.

That said there are a couple teams that fit your scenario and to me the best is Denver for multiple reasons:

In order to be ready to win now AND bring in Adams in as well a team needs:


The only other two teams that arguably fit the description would be Dolphins and Pittsburgh
Dolphins
Cap Space - They have the most space of any team, estimated around $67M...you want Davante, sure...you want us to get Cobb who GB cut, sure...
Setup to Win Now - This team as built with Tua went on a massive run of wins to close their year. They're young and ready to succeed just need that QB and few other pieces.
Draft Equity to do it without massively crippling themselves - While they don't have the 2022 picks that Denver has, they have TWO first rounders in 2023 to mess with in a package - a luxury that neither Denver or Pittsburg has. They have the normal picks in rounds this year with a bonus 4th, BUT their first rounder is the 30th pick as their original 1st was traded otherwise would be higher.

Honestly, let's unpack the Dolphins scenario some more. Denver is the attractive spot from a more draft equity now scenario, BUT think like Gute for a second - if 2022 is the Love experiment and you don't need to necessarily have a ton of wins, just know whether he is the QB1 of the future or not - then a package to the Dolphins that includes both their 1st Round picks in 2023 and maybe only their 2nd and 3rd this year could be MASSIVELY attractive to Gutenkunst.

You get to have a last act nod of thanks to Rodgers putting him somewhere that can one win, and two bring in Adams with him. You also have IMMENSE draft equity (three first rounders) in 2023 to essentially HAND PICK at worst the second best QB in the draft if not the best one in your organization's opinion. If Love is the man of the future, you have the ability to add THREE first round talents on rookie contracts for the next four years in the early days of Love being "affordable".

Honestly, it is almost in many ways MORE attractive than the Broncos deal...and if you're the Dolphins you do this instantly - sure you sacrifice your Day 2 this year and a lot next year, but you add Davante and Rodgers for a SB run that could last two years or so and get a first round pick still this spring.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Honestly, let's unpack the Dolphins scenario some more. Denver is the attractive spot from a more draft equity now scenario, BUT think like Gute for a second - if 2022 is the Love experiment and you don't need to necessarily have a ton of wins, just know whether he is the QB1 of the future or not - then a package to the Dolphins that includes both their 1st Round picks in 2023 and maybe only their 2nd and 3rd this year could be MASSIVELY attractive to Gutenkunst.

You get to have a last act nod of thanks to Rodgers putting him somewhere that can one win, and two bring in Adams with him. You also have IMMENSE draft equity (three first rounders) in 2023 to essentially HAND PICK at worst the second best QB in the draft if not the best one in your organization's opinion. If Love is the man of the future, you have the ability to add THREE first round talents on rookie contracts for the next four years in the early days of Love being "affordable".

Honestly, it is almost in many ways MORE attractive than the Broncos deal...and if you're the Dolphins you do this instantly - sure you sacrifice your Day 2 this year and a lot next year, but you add Davante and Rodgers for a SB run that could last two years or so and get a first round pick still this spring.

Spot on. Unless Gute and MLF already know that Love isn't the answer, I would rather give him a year to prove what he has and then have those first round picks banked for 2023.

If Rodgers is traded between now and the draft, what will our draft needs be in this upcoming draft? I suppose that depends a lot on who you resign and if the "rebuild" is major or slight.

 

[tynimiller]

Spot on. Unless Gute and MLF already know that Love isn't the answer, I would rather give him a year to prove what he has and then have those first round picks banked for 2023.

If Rodgers is traded between now and the draft, what will our draft needs be in this upcoming draft? I suppose that depends a lot on who you resign and if the "rebuild" is major or slight.

Yeah my latest mock lived in the scenario of a trade with Denver....but honestly I suspect IF that scenario unfolds we resign probably two of these three (Campbell/MVS/Douglas) whichever we don't sign bumps their position group higher for sure...we'd most assuredly have the money to afford the cheaper resigns of Lazard, Yosh, EQSB, Sully, Kelly?, or so

I would bet in that scenario WR (gotta get that young talent to use 2022 to mesh with Love), OT (Turner may be cut and Jenkins/Bakh health issues), EDGE and iDL take the cake.

If Douglas isn't resigned I think you want to leave Day 2 with a DB as well if possible.

 

[sschind]

In OT I guess I can understand how losing a coin flip would create a big stir. Look at the Bills last night, poor Josh Allen was a perfect 9-0 on coin flips until last nights game and he lost both the opening one and the OT one.

Tails sometimes fails: Bills’ Josh Allen had been perfect calling coin toss before Sunday's game vs. Chiefs

Buffalo lost the pre-game coin toss and the overtime coin toss. The latter kept the ball out of the offense's hands.

www.syracuse.com

WTF are they paying that guy for? I mean really. talk about your choke job.

I'm not sure he really wants to play anywhere else. If a situation arose where it was a Brady/Tampa type scenario where the team is absolutely stacked and just waiting for a QB and he sees a fantastic opportunity to win NOW for the next season or 2 and Adams can be signed there as well I could see him agreeing to a trade. I put that at about 10%.

I think he prefers to stay here until the end, which imo is about 2-3 seasons tops.

And I don't think it will take making him the highest paid player like some people think it will. IMO playing out his career with the Packers is more important to him than making more money.

 

[Half Empty]

IMO playing out his career with the Packers is more important to him than making more money.

I guess there's really no objective answer to "where did this come from?", but can you discuss a bit more? He was talking smack last year, he's under great fire now, and he's never indicated that he wasn't pushing for best contract. Just intrigued.

 

[sschind]

I guess there's really no objective answer to "where did this come from?", but can you discuss a bit more? He was talking smack last year, he's under great fire now, and he's never indicated that he wasn't pushing for best contract. Just intrigued.

I will be the first to admit I am not addicted to watching athlete press conferences and interviews as some of you are so I may have missed a few things here and there. I'm going off what I remember, or at least what I think I remember. and to help me clarify my answer let me ask you one. what is this talking smack. Are you talking about all the pre season BS about not wanting to play here because I don't really feel that was contract or money related. That was more about respect and control.

If I recall correctly he has always said how much it would mean to play his entire career for one team. Yes he has admitted that this may not be possible but I still think it is a goal.

Second, while he has decried these recent contracts signed by younger "lesser" QBs I don't recall him saying he wanted to be the highest paid either. At least not recently.

I think it has more to do with control of when he decided to call it quits as opposed to the team telling him he is done than it does with money. If the Packers want him back and they are willing to give him a contract that will allow him to walk away in 2-3 years or however many he wants then he may take less than the top paid to do it.

Another thing he has to realize is that he doesn't have the room to play with that these young bucks do. Guys like Mahomes and and Allen and Burrow when his time comes and maybe Herbert and Murray, they are young enough to be able to sign the long term deals that make it viable for teams to offer. Look at Mahomes" deal. It was for 10 years but it doesn't really super sticky cap wise until 2027 and then its for only 1 year and it falls back to "normal" or what will likely be the normal by then. In fact I'd guess that by 2028 the Chiefs will be getting a steal. My point is if Rodgers wants to average 45 million a year he's going to have to count 45 million a year or at some point he's going to have to count 60. He doesn't have the time to stretch it out with 2 or 3 million dollar increases per year

On the other hand I don't think we will see a prolonged negotiation in fact it would not surprise me if the Packers made an offer that made him the top paid right off the bat. If that happens we will never know if he would have taken less.

I'm not sure if that answered you question. In short (coulda said this first and saved us all some time but you know me) its more of a gut feeling about what I think is more important to Aaron Rodgers. I don't think being the highest paid is as important to him anymore but that doesn't mean he won't be.

 

[tynimiller]

He won't be even if we redo his deal, Brady isn't close to it on his deal.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I could be wrong, but the Packers offered to make Rodgers the highest paid player in the NFL and he refused, saying that it wasn't $$ that he was looking for. That said, 2 MVP's in a row and the Packers wanting to rework his contract, keep him happy and in GB...it might take that to get it done.

 

[tynimiller]

I could be wrong, but the Packers offered to make Rodgers the highest paid player in the NFL and he refused, saying that it wasn't $$ that he was looking for. That said, 2 MVP's in a row and the Packers wanting to rework his contract, keep him happy and in GB...it might take that to get it done.

Correct they had a deal that at least on paper would have made him that - believe it was Gute that disclosed that. However, no one publically saw exactly what that breakdown was vs actual money.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rodgers is the key to 2022 and what the Packers do. He stated that he didn't not want to be a part of a rebuild. If that is the case and if he wants to stay, he is going to have to work with the Packers on getting his contract to a point where they are still able to keep other players. If he wants Adams to stick around, then Adams is going to have to do the same and so on and so forth. If I had to wager, we have seen the last of Adams in Green and Gold and that ultimately might push Rogers out.

 

[tynimiller]

I will say I don't see a world where Rodgers is back and we are able to keep more than 1 of these three guys Preston Smith, Zadarius Smith and Adrian Amos - those three represent the cleanest and biggest savings the Packers have options wise.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

One thing you need to account for is that the Packers currently have a total of $246.9 million in cap hits account for for only 42 players, which leaves them effectively at least $46.6 million over the cap for next season.

If the team decides to keep Rodgers around they need to restructure his deal, a move that could create up to $20 million of cap space.

From what I see...... rebuild is here. Some of those cap hits are staggering. The free agent list is damning.

Not saying it isn't possible. But we will need to make some extreme moves. Drop some big players. Restructure some others. I always see a hand full of one year prove it guys I thought GB could use. We need those guys this year.

The dead cap hit will be big and will be like playing with one arm tied behind our back. But some veteran over the hill stars on one year contracts. Would be good bandaides for some of our losses.

 

[OldSchool101]

Honestly, let's unpack the Dolphins scenario some more. Denver is the attractive spot from a more draft equity now scenario, BUT think like Gute for a second - if 2022 is the Love experiment and you don't need to necessarily have a ton of wins, just know whether he is the QB1 of the future or not - then a package to the Dolphins that includes both their 1st Round picks in 2023 and maybe only their 2nd and 3rd this year could be MASSIVELY attractive to Gutenkunst.

You get to have a last act nod of thanks to Rodgers putting him somewhere that can one win, and two bring in Adams with him. You also have IMMENSE draft equity (three first rounders) in 2023 to essentially HAND PICK at worst the second best QB in the draft if not the best one in your organization's opinion. If Love is the man of the future, you have the ability to add THREE first round talents on rookie contracts for the next four years in the early days of Love being "affordable".

Honestly, it is almost in many ways MORE attractive than the Broncos deal...and if you're the Dolphins you do this instantly - sure you sacrifice your Day 2 this year and a lot next year, but you add Davante and Rodgers for a SB run that could last two years or so and get a first round pick still this spring.

The reason I find Denver attractive. Rodgers is closer to his roots. They own #9 overall verses likely working with late Day 1 selections plus waiting until 2023 (loss of time value). They are AFC so we’re not again handing off the Brady NFC baton to compete against another HOF QB. They have the $ to take on Adams and Rodgers.

Having a known #9 overall is crucial to our rebuild, not to mention likely getting a #41 overall this season and a late day 1 n 2023.
We could move back from #9 into the early teens (#13 -14 etc..) and package our 2 extra day 2 selections (acquired 41 and 78 etc) to move up the board into the tail of Day 1.
That gives us 2 more later Day 1 stabs now. Plus a top 13-15 overall right now.

At that point I’m ok getting Denver’s later day 1 selection in 2023 to pair with that would likely be a top #16 natural pick (assuming we go .500 or sub with Love year 1).

That’s FIVE Day 1 selections on board within 14 months. Keep in mind we can package 2 of those 5 at any time to grab another QB earlier Day 1 to compete with Love if desired.
Plus All (or nearly all) of our natural Day 2-3 +comp picks in 2022-2023.
Plus an S-ton of extra $cap$ to work with by 2023 through 2026

These are obviously just my insights but it’s obvious we’ll likely resign Rodgers and push more debt under the house until it sinks the foundation. Which is fine, I’ll just be watching from the neighbors deck as the Rodgers/Adams party falls into a massive sink hole.

 

[tynimiller]

The reason I find Denver attractive. Rodgers is closer to his roots. They own #9 overall verses likely working with late Day 1 selections plus waiting until 2023 (loss of time value). They are AFC so we’re not again handing off the Brady NFC baton to compete against another HOF QB. They have the $ to take on Adams and Rodgers.
Having a known #9 overall is crucial to our rebuild

Oh don’t get me wrong as I broke down before that post Denver was my most likely, Dolphins next with Pittsburgh being my third dark horse should a trade occur.

We won’t keep him in NFC I believe if we move

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Oh don’t get me wrong as I broke down before that post Denver was my most likely, Dolphins next with Pittsburgh being my third dark horse should a trade occur.

We won’t keep him in NFC I believe if we move

One pitfall that I thought of with trading for 2023 draft pics and it was the same one that made it less appealing to trade him right after this years draft. Whatever team you send him to, he should improve quite a bit. So all those future picks you receive could get diluted quite a bit. Versus trading for this year's picks, knowing exactly where each pick lies in each round.

 

[PackAttack12]

Tyni....I'm not sure why you have that quote in your signature....but all I'll say is that Rodgers is NOT coming back to the Packers without Davante Adams. I could be wrong about that, but I'd bet so much money on it. Which means I'd probably lose.

 

[Poppa San]

I’ll just be watching from the neighbors deck as the Rodgers/Adams party falls into a massive sink hole.

You don't get off that easy. If need be, we'll hogtie you. You're stuck on this bandwagon like the rest of us.

I could be wrong about that, but I'd bet so much money on it. Which means I'd probably lose.

Oh please do bet the farm in that case.

 

[AKCheese]

Get a new st coach who can count to 11.
Trade Bak if you can do so and still keep Aaron. Cap room is the key.
Resign/ extend Aaron Davante Rashan Jaire
Smiths you cut or on a one year prove it deal.
Let knuckleheads like King go.
Rest is window dressing but those are the primary moves.

Note to all NFL teams: Our 30 YO Tackle who was only been able to play 20 snaps a year after ACL surgery…. Please come with all offers to absorb his contract as THE highest paid OL in the league…

 

[AKCheese]

Bak cannot be *cut* with savings for '22, but he *can* be traded and in doing so provide cap relief. If you want to reduce Rahan's 5.3MM cap hit, an extension makes sense. In the grand scheme of things, King or Watt? Nuff said.

You think you’re going to extend Gary for less than $5.3M per year?

 

[AKCheese]

WTF are they paying that guy for? I mean really. talk about your choke job.

And I don't think it will take making him the highest paid player like some people think it will. IMO playing out his career with the Packers is more important to him than making more money.

He won’t be the highest but he’ll be right up there when you condider they’ll have to make it a 5 year deal that will probably roll back to 2

 

[AKCheese]

Oh don’t get me wrong as I broke down before that post Denver was my most likely, Dolphins next with Pittsburgh being my third dark horse should a trade occur.

We won’t keep him in NFC I believe if we move

Best case is Arrogant gives us a short list of where he’ll go so there will be a little bidding. Worst case is he names one team and we get a take it or leave it deal.

 

[tynimiller]

You think you’re going to extend Gary for less than $5.3M per year?

Doubt he meant that, but you can make the hit in 2022 far less than the average per year salary, loading up subsequent years more

 

[Krabs]

I read through a bit, but not this whole thread. My apologies if someone else did this already. I broke down what I think needs to happen to keep Rodgers and Adams.

If the Packers can re-sign Adams and extend Rodgers they will likely lose the following players unless they renegotiate for league minimums.

Offense: Lazard, Cobb, MVS, EQ, Tonyan, Lewis, Nijman, Patrick, Kelly

Defense: Campbell, Douglas, Sullivan, both Smith Bros, Lowry, Lancaster, King, & Burks

ST: Crosby

If this were to happen the Packers would have the following depth chart.

Offense:

QB: Rodgers, Love, Benkert
RB: Jones, Dillon, Taylor, Hill
WR: Adams, Amari Rodgers, Winfree
TE: Deguara, Davis, Dafney
LT: Bahktiari
LG: Runyan(Jenkins)
C: Myers
RG: Newman
RT: Turner
Backup Oline: Braden, Hansen, Van Lanen

Defense:
Dline: Clark, Slaton
OLB: Gary, Garvin, Galeai
MLB: Barnes, Mcduffie
CB: Alexander, Stokes, SJC
S: Savage, Amos, Black, Davis, Scott

Special Teams
K: Kicker to be named later
P: Bojorquez

Draft Picks in Rd 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 7, 7, 7

A lot of holes would need to be filled with the draft or undrafted free agents. Maybe a few flyers like Douglas who have bounced around for a while.

 

[tynimiller]

I read through a bit, but not this whole thread. My apologies if someone else did this already. I broke down what I think needs to happen to keep Rodgers and Adams.

If the Packers can re-sign Adams and extend Rodgers they will likely lose the following players unless they renegotiate for league minimums.

Offense: Lazard, Cobb, MVS, EQ, Tonyan, Lewis, Nijman, Patrick, Kelly

Defense: Campbell, Douglas, Sullivan, both Smith Bros, Lowry, Lancaster, King, & Burks

ST: Crosby

If this were to happen the Packers would have the following depth chart.

Offense:

QB: Rodgers, Love, Benkert
RB: Jones, Dillon, Taylor, Hill
WR: Adams, Amari Rodgers, Winfree
TE: Deguara, Davis, Dafney
LT: Bahktiari
LG: Runyan(Jenkins)
C: Myers
RG: Newman
RT: Turner
Backup Oline: Braden, Hansen, Van Lanen

Defense:
Dline: Clark, Slaton
OLB: Gary, Garvin, Galeai
MLB: Barnes, Mcduffie
CB: Alexander, Stokes, SJC
S: Savage, Amos, Black, Davis, Scott

Special Teams
K: Kicker to be named later
P: Bojorquez

Draft Picks in Rd 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 7, 7, 7

A lot of holes would need to be filled with the draft or undrafted free agents. Maybe a few flyers like Douglas who have bounced around for a while.

Sorry some of this was wrong - below is as of a couple days ago the only Packers with 2022 contracts (they did add the PS guys to this yesterday).

I'm getting sick of so many just having no clue actually whom we even have on the roster for 2022 - and understanding this is crucial to even be reasonable when discussing all the various options/questions/decisions the Packers face this off season. So rather than post this all over like 18 different threads - here a thread to itself that will list our 2022 roster of players that actually are signed to be a Packer for next year. If you don't see a name here, that means that player in some capacity is a Free Agent (UFA, RFA, ERFA) and presently NOT assumed to be here next fall.

I have placed their total potential Cap Hit as presently constructed JUST FOR 2022

QB
Aaron Rodgers - $46,444,157
Jordan Love - $3,377,305

RB
Aaron Jones - $8,952,935
AJ Dillon - $1,441,590
Kylin Hill - $844,766
Patrick Taylor - $825,000

WR
Randall Cobb - $9,351,362
Amari Rodgers - $1,113,613
Juwann Winfree - $895,000

TE
Mercedes Lewis - $2,445,000
Josiah Deguara - $1,217,367
Tyler Davis - $895,000

OL
David Bakhtiari - $22,768,000
Elgton Jenkins - $2,158,106
Royce Newman - $949,836
Jon Runyan - $938,669
Josh Myers - $1,268,213

DT/DE
Kenny Clark - $20,867,632
Tedarrell Slaton - $895,130
Dean Lowry - $7,922,000

OLB
Tipa Galeai - $825,000
Za'Darius Smith - $27,659,411
Preston Smith - $20,970,576
Rashan Gary - $5,051,872
Jonathan Garvin - $914,820

ILB
Ty Summers - $989,476
Isaiah McDuffie - $857,677

CB
Eric Stokes - $2,710,346
Shemar Jean-Charles - $885,038
Jaire Alexander - $13,294,000

S
Adrian Amos - $11,982,000
Darnell Savage - $3,982,901
Vernon Scott - $915,922

Special Teams
Steven Wirtel - LS - $825,000
Mason Crosby - K - $4,735,000

That is only 35 players...add in the other dead money (past contracts/voided money) we already are over the salary cap by more than $40 Million.
Look in following comments for list of FAs borken down by types ALSO list on Defensive, Offense and Special teams of who this means we "lose" potentially that don't have contracts.