Im no cap expert… but I think Wimm has stated they would have 8 days to get a deal done before they had to clear cap space.
2022 Salary Cap Riddle/Thread/Discussion
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tynimiller
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Correct you have to have the space at the tag is my understanding @captainWIMM hopefully will confirm that for us.
Jaire's trade would SUCK, but IF you're the GM and you see yourself facing a ton of cuts and loss of Adams to make it all work....trading Jaire and making a net savings of maybe $8M or so ($5.5M ish to Rasul signing) out of the $13.2M saved....AND most likely getting one top 50 pick and maybe a Day 3 back for him (easily worth this IMO) to help potentially quickly reset the stage for either a push with Rodgers (if he stays) OR build the Love time period build. Be much easier to potentially fill the MASSIVE Adams void with two first round picks and the luxury of one going to a WR that is there...plus potentially an edge or DL to replace the loss of (Smith, Smith, Lowry in my predictions). No guarantee 1st rounders jump in swimming but better chance than depending on Day2 and 3s usually.
Pokerbrat2000
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I think the whole offseason is going to pivot around what Rodgers decides. If he stays, then Gute, Ball and maybe even Rodgers, are going to have to figure out a creative way to try and keep as much of the band together as they can. If Rodgers retires or is traded, I would be tempted to say clean house of all the big cap hits and start your rebuild with as many draft picks as you can get out of trades and a better bank to build with. I love Jaire, but he isn't going to make the difference next season if the rest of the defense has been gutted and Rodgers is gone.
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tynimiller
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See to me my thought process is if Rodgers stays I'm much more willing to let Jaire walk and run again with Rasul and Stokes as my mains in order to help make the cap work AND a slightly less potent we'll say defense can make it work with Rodgers led offense. IF Rodgers is leaving, my eggs and expenses are going to defensive side of the ball and I'm immediately making a push to extend Alexander here AND see if Rasul wants to stay in Green Bay. Love's success early in his career is going to be like nearly all young QBs - solid to great defenses being part of the recipe. Transcended QB play from youngsters just doesn't happen a ton.
So I agree 100%, a lot of my thought processes change and the trickle down comes off the Rodgers decision. If I'm Gute and behind closed doors Rodgers says if I stay Gute what can we do roster wise I'm pulling out a list of items - some will be knowns and some won't be, but I'm ready to go into the vision and such some to paint the picture.
Pokerbrat2000
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My confidence level for immediate success without Rodgers is obviously far less than yours. As I was watching the Vikings Sunday night, I couldn't help but be reminded of that. The drop off between Cousins and Mannion is far less than the drop off between Rodgers and Love. The Vikings offense looked like a shell of what they were with Cousins. Sadly, at least for year #1, I think the same will happen if and when Love replaces Rodgers.
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tynimiller
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Who said I had confidence in success? I have far more confidence in the chance at success if Love is our QB focusing on building the best defense I can though.
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While I agree with you that the Packers probably will have more success with Love at QB, with a solid defense, I just don't think a solid defense will be enough to get it done in the first few years. I definitely would keep my corp. of young guys on defense: Clark, Gary, Stokes, Savage, Douglas and possibly Jaire and try to build around them, but that will take some time too.
Then again, using your idea of trading Jaire and maybe even Clark, frees up a ton of money, gets you some really decent draft stock and pushes the rebuild out to hopefully when Love is clicking on offense.
I am not looking forward to it initially from the W and L's standpoint, but it might be fun to see the Packers have to build a team that isn't centered around the QB. I love watching a potent offense, but this season when the defense is playing really well, I really have enjoyed it.
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tynimiller
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The first year with Love will not be about pushing for the Super Bowl or even necessarily winning the division - it will be at its core finding out if we are committing to him and the 5th year option or not in all honesty.
Lot of fleshing of roster moves must be done, but if Love is QB1 in 2022 I instantly view my lens of hope around .500 season. So 9 wins or so would be the hope...
Lot of fleshing of roster moves must be done, but if Love is QB1 in 2022 I instantly view my lens of hope around .500 season. So 9 wins or so would be the hope...
Pokerbrat2000
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Which is why I would say you purge your roster of the fat contracts, especially if they aren't going to be around in 2023. I love Aaron Jones, but if you look at his contract, the Packers should either cut him after 2022 or rework his deal. Otherwise his 2023 cap hit is $19.25 M.
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tynimiller
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Everyone with any kind of fiscal intelligence knew that contract was a two year contract when done, there is I'd say less than 0% chance he sees the third year as written.
Pokerbrat2000
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Right, but the question would become, do you trade AJ this off season if Rodgers is traded/retires? While his deadcap is almost equal to his cap hit in 2022 ($9.75 VS $9) you get trade value out of him, instead of cutting him after the 2022 season. He would be a cheap one year rental for someone, but might get you a 2nd round pick because of it.
mradtke66
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Plenty of ways that this could come back to bite us, but really we just have to survive 2022. 2023 we get the new TV contract applied and the cap is set to explode.
Bhak (effectively) can't be cut in 2022. In 2023, his cap percentage goes down. Seems unlikely to be cut unless he falls off a cliff. 4/5 of the line is still on rookie deals. Though Jenkins will need some of extension, waiting until the end of 2022 benefits us in that we can see how he recovers and push the cap hit to 2023.
Jones will likely be extended or cut. Even with a bigger cap, his percentage is a little out of whack. But is sure looks like that was the plan--have a goofily structured cap to survive 2022.
Rodgers and Adams, assuming both want to stay, would just need some careful language to skip past 2022. Low salary, "modest" signing bonus, and then a 2023 roster bonus to be applied for the 2023 salary cap year, with some kind of cap penalty due to accounting to the Packers if they are cut before the roster bonus. There will be gamesmanship here with how both contracts are structured, but it's doable.
Z. Smith is almost certainly cut. Bad cap number and we have survived not having him.
P. Smith is almost certainly cut/extended/something. His number isn't bad, but a little high for an older player who isn't necessarily elite anymore.
Mason is old. Easy cut.
Turner is a true cap casualty.
Bhak (effectively) can't be cut in 2022. In 2023, his cap percentage goes down. Seems unlikely to be cut unless he falls off a cliff. 4/5 of the line is still on rookie deals. Though Jenkins will need some of extension, waiting until the end of 2022 benefits us in that we can see how he recovers and push the cap hit to 2023.
Jones will likely be extended or cut. Even with a bigger cap, his percentage is a little out of whack. But is sure looks like that was the plan--have a goofily structured cap to survive 2022.
Rodgers and Adams, assuming both want to stay, would just need some careful language to skip past 2022. Low salary, "modest" signing bonus, and then a 2023 roster bonus to be applied for the 2023 salary cap year, with some kind of cap penalty due to accounting to the Packers if they are cut before the roster bonus. There will be gamesmanship here with how both contracts are structured, but it's doable.
Z. Smith is almost certainly cut. Bad cap number and we have survived not having him.
P. Smith is almost certainly cut/extended/something. His number isn't bad, but a little high for an older player who isn't necessarily elite anymore.
Mason is old. Easy cut.
Turner is a true cap casualty.
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tynimiller
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Jones won't rework his contract and cutting costs us doesn't save us. He is here for 2022
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tynimiller
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I mean you could, but that's a rock to throw once a few of the bigger ones are only. RBs value on the trade block has plummeted in recent years for sure.
Pokerbrat2000
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You need to talk to Captain, before taking that drastic step!
mradtke66
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You need to talk to Captain, before taking that drastic step!
Heh. I'm not a Mason hater by any stretch. Normally, I'd probably not suggest it. But with the cap what it is next year, harder than typical choices must be made.
In particular, solid, good locker room guys who are not special are at risk. Mason, Lowry, King (though not directly applicable. Not on the roster next year).
I love a strong defense and I would love to have these guys as the core of my defensive unit. I don't like the idea of trading Alexander at all. With an extension we can probably cut his cap hit in half or even more. Trading away what looks like a shut down corner for a shot at maybe getting another player nearly as good in the draft does not excite me.
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tynimiller
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It wouldn’t be a let’s go get a new Jaire with the draft capital though. That isn’t why one would even entertain such a move. It’s a crazy thought for sure and one I don’t think we see happen unless Rodgers stays and makes some demands that needs the money or what not.
1. The only way I trade a proven all pro (Jaire) is if I am worried about his shoulder. That may be the thought process of trade partners and their trade offers may reflect that.
2. No way I trade Jaire and or Clark. They are both young and too good at what they do. The cap space must be made up with cutting and or re-structuring the older players on the roster. (Smiths, Turner, Lowry, Cobb, Crosby)
3. Sure you hope Gute continues to be successful with any added draft capital but why take the risk by trading proven young NFL talent to acquire that capital.
4. AJ has 1 year left with GB. Dillon has come along even quicker than they had hoped. I really liked Hill before his injury. As long as that wasn't something that will effect him going forward IMO he will be a contributor when AJ is gone.
5. I can't see Adams here next year. Salary cap issues just won't allow it. WR becomes a priority. Just how much of a priority depends on Rodgers staying or not. Without Rodgers you almost have to take a WR in the 1st round. With him you can wait until the 3rd round IMO.
6. You can only keep Cobb on a sweetheart deal.
7. This may be the most important part of the whole puzzle. Just how much will Douglas, Campbell, Tonyan, MVS want to stay with the Packers?
8. Other than Turner, I would not touch the OL. They are the bright spot.
2. No way I trade Jaire and or Clark. They are both young and too good at what they do. The cap space must be made up with cutting and or re-structuring the older players on the roster. (Smiths, Turner, Lowry, Cobb, Crosby)
3. Sure you hope Gute continues to be successful with any added draft capital but why take the risk by trading proven young NFL talent to acquire that capital.
4. AJ has 1 year left with GB. Dillon has come along even quicker than they had hoped. I really liked Hill before his injury. As long as that wasn't something that will effect him going forward IMO he will be a contributor when AJ is gone.
5. I can't see Adams here next year. Salary cap issues just won't allow it. WR becomes a priority. Just how much of a priority depends on Rodgers staying or not. Without Rodgers you almost have to take a WR in the 1st round. With him you can wait until the 3rd round IMO.
6. You can only keep Cobb on a sweetheart deal.
7. This may be the most important part of the whole puzzle. Just how much will Douglas, Campbell, Tonyan, MVS want to stay with the Packers?
8. Other than Turner, I would not touch the OL. They are the bright spot.
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tynimiller
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Besides Turner there isn’t a reason to get rid of any OL.
Without creative cuts or trades you are not resigning I’d guess more than one of those you listed of Rasul, Campbell, Tonyan and MVS
Without creative cuts or trades you are not resigning I’d guess more than one of those you listed of Rasul, Campbell, Tonyan and MVS
I realize that. You were going with Stokes and Douglas. I debated putting that in but decided not to. What I meant by finding another player nearly as good was at any position. If you get a first rounder for him you are going to hope that the guy you pick will be at least as good which I don't think is a given.
I know you're not saying they should do this. You are only proposing a possible alternative and I appreciate that. My feelings are however that besides Rodgers, Gary, and maybe Clark, Alexander is the last guy we should get rid of and I might even put him in front of Gary. For what its worth Adams would come in 5th in my voting although Stokes might even beat him out.
In that case I hope it's Campbell.
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tynimiller
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If Jaire is extended I’d agree
If you trade Jaire for a top 50 pick, you are going to spend it to replace him. King nor Sullivan ain't his replacement. Might as well resign him for a 4-5 year extension.
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tynimiller
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Of course extending him is preferred, but the pick or even picks wouldn’t be necessarily to replace him but an arrow in the quiver to try and plug many spots left by the cap casualties. If Jaire scenario happened, IMO it only occurs if you can and have signed Rasul to be here in 2022.
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