2020 MVP Race

[RepStar15]

I don’t care who league MVP is. I want any member of the packers team to be the super bowl MVP. Don’t care who.

 

[pacmaniac]

Completion %: Rodgers
Yards: Mahomes
Touchdowns: Rodgers
TD %: Rodgers
Interceptions: Rodgers
INT %: Even
YPA: Even
QB Rating: Rodgers
QBR: Rodgers

Statistically, this isn't even a debate. The only edge Mahomes holds is in gross yardage. Rodgers is even or ahead in every other metric.

I agree that Rodgers is in the lead right now. But Mahomes also has more wins. In 9 out of the last 11 seasons, the MVP went to the player on the team with the most wins in the league.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

People talk about the supporting casts in GB and KC as though there's a gaping chasm between them, but Rodgers and Mahomes have a pretty comparable set-up in terms of advantages once you start breaking it down.

-In terms of offensive design and play calling, LaFleur/Hackett and Reid/Bienemy are on a similar level this year.

-Both of them have elite #1 wide receivers in Adams on the one hand and Hill on the other.

-Mahomes has a huge advantage at TE, where Kelce is arguably the best in the game. Tonyan has been a good and fun revelation, but he's obviously a sizeable step down.

-But Rodgers' backfield of Jones, Williams, and Dillon is a lot better than CEH and a broken down Lev Bell.

-Rodgers has the superior offensive line working for him, and a more effective running game.

-Many people would argue that the rest of the receiving corps is where Mahomes has the huge advantage, but I don't see it.

Here are Mahomes' next three wide receivers after Hill:

-Hardman: 60 targets, 39 receptions, 535 yards, 4 TD, 13.7 YPR, in 15 games
-Robinson: 52 targets, 39 receptions, 408 yards, 3 TD, 10.5 YPR, in15 games
-Watkins: 55 targets, 37 receptions, 421 yards, 2 TD, 11.4 YPR, in 10 games

And here are Rodgers':

-Valdes-Scantling: 60 targets, 31 receptions, 603 yards, 5 TD, 19.5 YPR, in 15 games
-Lazard: 42 targets, 31 receptions, 434 yards, 3 TD, 14.0 YPR, in 9 games
-St. Brown: 12 targets, 7 receptions, 117 yards, 1 TD, 16.7 YPR, in 11 games

So until you get to the 4th guy on the depth chart, there isn't much of a discernable difference. In fact, you could easily make the case that Rodgers' #2 and #3 wide receivers have been more effective than the #2 and 3 in Kansas City.

So on balance, I think the edge goes to Mahomes because of Kelce, but it's pretty close when you consider that Rodgers does have some advantages to "off-set" the gap at TE (RB/OL). Hardly a big difference.

In my opinion you don't value the difference Travis Kelce makes for the Chiefs offense enough.

As a tight end he ranks fourth in the league in receptions, second in yards and fifth in touchdowns. He has more receptions, yards and touchdowns than Packers receivers aside of Adams combined.

Bet he wishes he didn't have that one bad and fairly meaningless int last night though.

While that was a bad decision by Rodgers it should hardly have any effect on him being named MVP for this season.

i've only been critical of a couple of things and only over a couple of seasons. not sure what you mean by "overall." overall this season? his career? overall this season...as i've said before, this year has been a complete 180 in every regard for him. he's been fantastic, willing, and a model of leadership. he's saying and doing all the right things. he's been more honest and contrite this season than i can ever remember. he IS the MVP. that discussion is over. the national media has even given up the mahomes argument.
for his career? automatic, first second he's eligible, HOF'er says it all. the best to ever lace them up in pure football talent.

Yet you advocated for the Packers to release him after this year before the season started.

Rodgers should win MVP and I'm sure we can all agree it was Gute pushing Rodgers by drafting his replacement that inspired this level of play from Rodgers.

I'm not convinced the Packers drafting Love had any effect on Rodgers performing at an MVP level this season.

I agree that Rodgers is in the lead right now. But Mahomes also has more wins. In 9 out of the last 11 seasons, the MVP went to the player on the team with the most wins in the league.

The league MVP didn't play for the team with the most wins in 2012, '16 and '18 over the past 10 seasons. In addition there were several winners with their teams being tied with others for the best record in the league.

I think the Packers finishing with fewer wins than the Chiefs will be a factor.

 

[Dantés]

In my opinion you don't value the difference Travis Kelce makes for the Chiefs offense enough.

As a tight end he ranks fourth in the league in receptions, second in yards and fifth in touchdowns. He has more receptions, yards and touchdowns than Packers receivers aside of Adams combined.

This is a curious correction seeing as how I called Kelce a huge advantage and arguably the best TE in football.

 

[gbgary]

Yet you advocated for the Packers to release him after this year before the season started.

because i expected another 2019 out of him and for the obvious cap and roster benefits going forward (for $40 million in gained cap space in 2022 to put the best team possible around love). who knew he was going to do a 180? it most likely gets him 2021 as a Packer and the 2022 benefit falls from $40 to $17m. it could still happen. when people realize the step back the Packers will make after this season they'll understand it's for the best. adams comes due after next season. where's that money coming from? rodgers knows what's up. i think that's one of the reasons he's so laid back this season. they may have already told him. we'll see. covid's ruined a lot of things. the final years of rodgers stay in GB is just one of them. it's going to be cut short. the question is how many seasons and the quality of those teams. i'm excited for this season but i'm also excited about the prospects of love in this offense with a team full of quality players around him because we could afford to keep/get them.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I
I'm not convinced the Packers drafting Love had any effect on Rodgers performing at an MVP level this season.

That was intended to be sarcastic. I don't think the Love pick had anything to do with it. I was just pointing out the only possible positive view on the Packers drafting a replacement for when they push out a recent MVP QB.

 

[pacmaniac]

Rodgers will break his own 2011 record (which Mahomes tied in 2018) if he can have his 14th game with a 100+ QB rating next week.

 

[longtimefan]

That was intended to be sarcastic. I don't think the Love pick had anything to do with it. I was just pointing out the only possible positive view on the Packers drafting a replacement for when they push out a recent MVP QB.

Publicly no. Privately I bet it does.

how many times has the chip on my shoulder been mentioned ??

they bring a younger guy in, he sees writing in the wall. He knows it’s a business and it happens. So he tries everything to be the best . Working out more and different, probably studying more and different.

not saying he is being an ******* about it , just realized he needs to really play greater than he has been

b4 you turn it around to suit your narrative..he wants to win now and with the Pack. And is going above and beyond to do it. And maybe the love pick (and not intentionally by Gute) pushed him that way

 

[Mondio]

I know it affects them. even last year the Gary pick surprised me because of who we got in FA. Then i'm thinking, you need 3 rushers anyway to keep rotation AND if someone can take your job, you don't get comfortable. Coincidence Gary has been playing better, Preston entered the season a little fluffy and a little slower and a few weeks in Gary gets the start and since then Preston is playing better? I don't think so.

These guys all seem like great teammates, i'm not saying they're selfish etc, it's just human nature. If you're comfortable you're likely not growing and maybe not working as hard. Still working hard, but not as hard as you did to climb to the top. It's pretty normal and I don't think anybody is immune to it. And for as hard as Rodgers always works, as I'm sure he has, I wouldn't be surprised if that woke him up a little bit.

 

[Dantés]

I know it affects them. even last year the Gary pick surprised me because of who we got in FA. Then i'm thinking, you need 3 rushers anyway to keep rotation AND if someone can take your job, you don't get comfortable. Coincidence Gary has been playing better, Preston entered the season a little fluffy and a little slower and a few weeks in Gary gets the start and since then Preston is playing better? I don't think so.

These guys all seem like great teammates, i'm not saying they're selfish etc, it's just human nature. If you're comfortable you're likely not growing and maybe not working as hard. Still working hard, but not as hard as you did to climb to the top. It's pretty normal and I don't think anybody is immune to it. And for as hard as Rodgers always works, as I'm sure he has, I wouldn't be surprised if that woke him up a little bit.

So many fans say, regarding the draft, "just take the best player on your board. BPA! BPA!"

But when the team actually does that... they're not happy.

 

[thequick12]

I'm not convinced the Packers drafting Love had any effect on Rodgers performing at an MVP level this season.

To say it hasn't had "any" effect on Rodgers play is simply wrong. Of course it's had some effect on Rodgers especially mentally. Let's remember this dude hasn't ever let not being chosen #1 go...

Now is it the main reason he is playing like an mvp again...doubt it, I think that has a lot to do with what he noticed watching his 2010 film and it being his 2nd year in the mlf offense.

Figuring out you were forgetting what it's all about, having fun. And being comfortable in an offense, I think that's much bigger. Not to mention adams and jones make a pretty good big 3 along with Rodgers.

*that's a crazy stat about kelce and Packers wr group, wow!

 

[PackAttack12]

Rodgers will break his own 2011 record (which Mahomes tied in 2018) if he can have his 14th game with a 100+ QB rating next week.

Rodgers had 14 in 2011 as well. Best he can do is tie.

EDIT: It is indeed 13. Had a moment.

 

[easyk83]

I'm not convinced the Packers drafting Love had any effect on Rodgers performing at an MVP level this season.

I tend to think that Rodgers settling in and fully accepting the offense has been the significant reason for his improvement. Defenses have been forced to respect the run game more, even if we're only rushing 3 more times per game, and Rodgers tends to get the ball out faster and he's taking a lot less sacks and hits. He's presently at about 19 sacks on the year for a rate of 1 sack per game, down by about 1.25 sacks per game. This translates to less physical wear and tear and presumably less overall knockdowns and hits.

According to my unreliable eye balls, he seems faster in attacking the underneath routes when open. Which likely slows down the rush as well and probably opens up the down field routes more.

 

[pacmaniac]

Rodgers had 14 in 2011 as well. Best he can do is tie.

No, he had 13, since he sat out the final game in 2011.

 

[PackAttack12]

No, he had 13, since he sat out the final game in 2011.

Damn, you're right. My apologies.

 

[Do7]

Welp! Mahomes is sitting out this week! I think it's safe to say this MVP is all but wrapped up for Rodgers!

 

[pacmaniac]

Damn, you're right. My apologies.

No need to apologize! I actually made the same mistake myself, seeing that he only had 2 games below 100 in 2011, and forgetting that he didn't play the last game.

 

[PackAttack12]

Welp! Mahomes is sitting out this week! I think it's safe to say this MVP is all but wrapped up for Rodgers!

Unless Rodgers has an awful game. Voters have short memories.

 

[gbgary]

Welp! Mahomes is sitting out this week! I think it's safe to say this MVP is all but wrapped up for Rodgers!

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well how about that.

 

[pacmaniac]

Unless Rodgers has an awful game. Voters have short memories.

The oddsmakers have swung back and forth like crazy the last few weeks based on single games. Mahomes was the favorite until he threw 3 INTs a few weeks ago, then Rodgers was the favorite. Then Rodgers had the poor game against Carolina, and suddenly Mahomes was the heavy favorite again. Then Mahomes had a not so great game last week and Rodgers had a good game, and suddenly Rodgers is the heavy favorite again.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This is a curious correction seeing as how I called Kelce a huge advantage and arguably the best TE in football.

It wasn't meant as a correction at all, just stated my opinion. Mahomes having Kelce results in a huge advantage at the skill positions compared to Rodgers and the Packers' weapons.

Once again, just my two cents.

it most likely gets him 2021 as a Packer and the 2022 benefit falls from $40 to $17m. it could still happen. when people realize the step back the Packers will make after this season they'll understand it's for the best. adams comes due after next season. where's that money coming from? rodgers knows what's up. i think that's one of the reasons he's so laid back this season. they may have already told him. we'll see. covid's ruined a lot of things. the final years of rodgers stay in GB is just one of them. it's going to be cut short. the question is how many seasons and the quality of those teams. i'm excited for this season but i'm also excited about the prospects of love in this offense with a team full of quality players around him because we could afford to keep/get them.

There's absolutely no way the Packers will move on from the MVP to hand the reigns to a second year quarterback who wasn't even active once during his rookie campaign.

I understand it would save a ton of cap space but wouldn't make the team any better even if it would allow to keep some other players around.

To say it hasn't had "any" effect on Rodgers play is simply wrong. Of course it's had some effect on Rodgers especially mentally. Let's remember this dude hasn't ever let not being chosen #1 go...

What I tried to point out is that Rodgers might have performed at the same level even if the Packers hadn't selected Love in the first round.

 

[Dantés]

It wasn't meant as a correction at all, just stated my opinion. Mahomes having Kelce results in a huge advantage at the skill positions compared to Rodgers and the Packers' weapons.

Once again, just my two cents.

Ok.

Well I certainly think Kelce is an elite weapon and a big advantage to Mahomes. And I would agree that Mahomes has a better supporting cast because of him. But my point is that I don't think the gap is as large as people would believe if you break it all down.

Maybe this is a simpler way to say it.

Coaching/Playcalling: Even
#1 Wide Receiver: Even
Tight End: +++ Mahomes
Offensive Line: ++ Rodgers
Backfield: + Rodgers
Supporting WR's: + Mahomes

 

[PackAttack12]

Ok.

Well I certainly think Kelce is an elite weapon and a big advantage to Mahomes. And I would agree that Mahomes has a better supporting cast because of him. But my point is that I don't think the gap is as large as people would believe if you break it all down.

Maybe this is a simpler way to say it.

Coaching/Playcalling: Even
#1 Wide Receiver: Even
Tight End: +++ Mahomes
Offensive Line: ++ Rodgers
Backfield: + Rodgers
Supporting WR's: + Mahomes

Very minor differences I would say is a slight advantage to Mahomes in coaching/playcalling and a slight advantage to Rodgers in #1 receiver. Reid and Bieniemy are more proven and have been around each other a long time. I trust their big game experience. They've just had more "at bats" than LaFleur. I still wonder about his adjustment ability in the biggest moments.

And though I like Hill a lot and his world class speed is a potential game breaker at any given moment, Adams is playing all around the best at the position in the NFL right now in my view.

 

[Dantés]

Very minor differences I would say is a slight advantage to Mahomes in coaching/playcalling and a slight advantage to Rodgers in #1 receiver. Reid and Bieniemy are more proven and have been around each other a long time. I trust their big game experience. They've just had more "at bats" than LaFleur. I still wonder about his adjustment ability in the biggest moments.

And though I like Hill a lot and his world class speed is a potential game breaker at any given moment, Adams is playing all around the best at the position in the NFL right now in my view.

Yeah I think those are fair correctives.

If someone had to pick between LaFleur and Reid as the better offensive mind, pedigree is an easy tie breaker to Reid. However, just in the year 2020 alone, I think LaFleur has been right there. Whether he can maintain and excel in the long term like Reid remains to be seen.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well I certainly think Kelce is an elite weapon and a big advantage to Mahomes. And I would agree that Mahomes has a better supporting cast because of him. But my point is that I don't think the gap is as large as people would believe if you break it all down.

Maybe this is a simpler way to say it.

Coaching/Playcalling: Even
#1 Wide Receiver: Even
Tight End: +++ Mahomes
Offensive Line: ++ Rodgers
Backfield: + Rodgers
Supporting WR's: + Mahomes

That's fine, in my opinion Kelce gives the Chiefs more of an advantage. It's fine to disagree on the topic though.