2018 Salary Cap Analysis

[brandon2348]

Not enough. We need that no1 or no2 edge rusher AND Matthews in 2018.

A free safety with range would be more valuable then Matthews at his current state.

 

[mradtke66]

A free safety with range would be more valuable then Matthews at his current state.

Perhaps. But in what was is getting a rookie OLB and/or adding a rangy FS in any way, shape, or form mutual exclusive to keeping Matthews on the roster?

 

[brandon2348]

Perhaps. But in what was is getting a rookie OLB and/or adding a rangy FS in any way, shape, or form mutual exclusive to keeping Matthews on the roster?

My point is simple in regards to salary cap that is Matthews wasnt worth 15 million last year and isn't worth 11 million next year. Packers can do better and that's my opinion. My hope is that they have a vision in place to take cap savings and draft to put together better and more cost effective options

 

[mradtke66]

My point is simple in regards to salary cap that is Matthews wasnt worth 15 million last year and isn't worth 11 million next year. Packers can do better and that's my opinion. My hope is that they have a vision in place to take cap savings and draft to put together better and more cost effective options

He probably wasn't worth 15 last year, we had what, a 10MM cap penalty if we cut him? He was certainly worth the 4MM-net we could have gotten by cutting him.

Now is he worth 11MM this year? I don't know. Part of the problem with that number is the cap has gone up. Let's see what the market says a 2nd contract is for a good edge rusher. Maybe 11MM is what you pay for 8 sacks in 2018.

As far as doing better, sure. I like that idea. But that cutting Matthews is required achieve that is false dichotomy.

I want a better edge guy and I want Matthews to stick around, unless we luck out with 3 guys better than him. Even then, he's due less than 1MM in bonus this year. Prudent to keep him through training camp at the least, to protect yourself from injury.

FURTHER, the idea that he's worth 15MM last year...that was his cap number. 4.1MM of that 15 was his pro-rated signing bonus. He made 10MM in salary, 1MM in workout/roster bonus.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A free safety with range would be more valuable then Matthews at his current state.

There's one on the roster: Randall.

 

[brandon2348]

There's one on the roster: Randall.

Packers would need to get another corner to make that happen ideally.

 

[brandon2348]

He probably wasn't worth 15 last year, we had what, a 10MM cap penalty if we cut him? He was certainly worth the 4MM-net we could have gotten by cutting him.

Now is he worth 11MM this year? I don't know. Part of the problem with that number is the cap has gone up. Let's see what the market says a 2nd contract is for a good edge rusher. Maybe 11MM is what you pay for 8 sacks in 2018.

As far as doing better, sure. I like that idea. But that cutting Matthews is required achieve that is false dichotomy.

I want a better edge guy and I want Matthews to stick around, unless we luck out with 3 guys better than him. Even then, he's due less than 1MM in bonus this year. Prudent to keep him through training camp at the least, to protect yourself from injury.

FURTHER, the idea that he's worth 15MM last year...that was his cap number. 4.1MM of that 15 was his pro-rated signing bonus. He made 10MM in salary, 1MM in workout/roster bonus.

Like I've posted I admit Matthews has value just not 11 million IMO. I would have no problem keeping him through camp to see how things shake out.

In a perfect scenario I have Packers restructuring Matthews around 6 mill and extending him a year allowing him to retire as a Packer.

 

[gbgary]

Not enough. We need that no1 or no2 edge rusher AND Matthews in 2018.

yes...i wasn't saying he wouldn't be there.

 

[mradtke66]

Like I've posted I admit Matthews has value just not 11 million IMO. I would have no problem keeping him through camp to see how things shake out.

In a perfect scenario I have Packers restructuring Matthews around 6 mill and extending him a year allowing him to retire as a Packer.

The problem here is there's nothing to restructure. He has only one year left on his contract. To restructure, we'd have to extend him. To get him down to 6MM a year, he'd just have to accept a 1 year, 1MM extension. (11 + 1 ) /2 . I don't think he'd do that.

I'm guessing he'd get about 8MM/year on the open market. Possibly more as even decent edge rushers tend to be overpaid in FA. Plus we have the tangental bonus of comp picks. If we let him play out his current contract, don't re-sign him in 2019, and someone ELSE does re-sign him, we snag a pick.

I don't know exactly how I'd value that potential pick, but it's non-zero.

 

[brandon2348]

The problem here is there's nothing to restructure. He has only one year left on his contract. To restructure, we'd have to extend him. To get him down to 6MM a year, he'd just have to accept a 1 year, 1MM extension. (11 + 1 ) /2 . I don't think he'd do that.

I'm guessing he'd get about 8MM/year on the open market. Possibly more as even decent edge rushers tend to be overpaid in FA. Plus we have the tangental bonus of comp picks. If we let him play out his current contract, don't re-sign him in 2019, and someone ELSE does re-sign him, we snag a pick.

I don't know exactly how I'd value that potential pick, but it's non-zero.

I meant extend when I posted restructure.

I doubt he will go for it too. He had almost half his sacks against the Browns. Thats why i say let him go.

 

[mradtke66]

I meant extend when I posted restructure.

I doubt he will go for it too. He had almost half his sacks against the Browns. Thats why i say let him go.

I'm reluctant. He's certainly not a super star anymore, but he's valuable and he plays a premium position. An extra ~3MM isn't horrible. Let him play it out, see what the market looks like, go from there. Also possible Pettine has some different ideas on how to use him and he snags 10 sacks next year. 10+ sacks at 11MM/year is probably below market rate.

 

[sschind]

Fair enough. So, who are they, how much do you save, and who are you gonna replace them with?

Everybody starts with who the underperformers are, but who else ya got or can get? If you ain't got somebody better, then overpaying may be necessary.

You're going to find overpaid players on every roster. The exception might be the tear down and rebuild cases, like the massive amount of dead cap McKensie absorbed in his first 2 years in Oakland. I don't think we're there yet.

That's the key thing that everyone seems to forget. You may gain 6 million in cap space by cutting player X but now you have another hole on your roster to fill. If you plan on replacing him with an UDFA at the minimum deal then yeah, you just gained maybe 5.5 million in cap space but is that replacement going to give you anywhere near the performance that player X did? If he does you made a great move but its a huge gamble. Especially when player X is a starter. Now if you have to go out and sign a somewhat established FA he may cost you 3-4 million a year now your savings are only 2-3 million and you have to wonder is it really worth it. Is the new FA going to give you the production X did and his production is going to have to be much better than the UDFA to make is a good move because you are paying him quite a bit more.

Bottom line a portion of the money you save by cutting a player has to go to his replacement on the roster you can't count it all to use towards improving some other area.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Packers would need to get another corner to make that happen ideally.

Actually, they'd need two. Nobody around here seems to have noticed House is a free agent. At least Randall at FS, Clinton-Dix as FS/SS swing man, and Jones at SS/IL swing man would solve Burnett's departure, if it happens. His free agent status also seems to have been forgotten.

You'd like to think Pettine can do something about Jones (and King for that matter) being constantly lost in zone coverages.

 

[brandon2348]

Actually, they'd need two. Nobody around here seems to have noticed House is a free agent. At least Randall at FS, Clinton-Dix as FS/SS swing man, and Jones at SS/IL swing man would solve Burnett's departure, if it happens. His free agent status also seems to have been forgotten.

You'd like to think Pettine can do something about Jones (and King for that matter) being constantly lost in zone coverages.

Brice could also back up Randall at FS.

Yes, 2 would be better then 1. I say let House and Burnett walk with your scenario at safety in play. IMO the money available should be spent at Corner. Mo Claiborne would be an upgrade for House and would be on the cheap side. Then it depends on how aggressive they want to get after that. Trumaine Johnson would be great. If they can lock down the corner position with free agency and get a couple good ones then the draft capital available should be able plug the other holes.

I believe we're in good hands with Pettine.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Brice could also back up Randall at FS.

Yes, 2 would be better then 1. I say let House and Burnett walk with your scenario at safety in play. IMO the money available should be spent at Corner. Mo Claiborne would be an upgrade for House and would be on the cheap side. Then it depends on how aggressive they want to get after that. Trumaine Johnson would be great. If they can lock down the corner position with free agency and get a couple good ones then the draft capital available should be able plug the other holes.

I believe we're in good hands with Pettine.

So you cut Matthews, use the money to buy a corner, and you're still missing an edge rusher and nickel corner. Tight cap space while having aging stars is a b*tch.

 

[brandon2348]

So you cut Matthews, use the money to buy a corner, and you're still missing an edge rusher and nickel corner. Tight cap space while having aging stars is a b*tch.

They need to address the WR situation as well. Paying 35 million for Nelson, Cobb and Adams is ridiculous. Then there is the Bulaga situation. "Decisions Decisions".

If renegotiations are done properly they should adequately be able to bolster CB spot while keeping some combination of Matthews, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga in play on new cap friendly deals.

Then we have the draft.

 

[Lawdog]

Like I've posted I admit Matthews has value just not 11 million IMO. I would have no problem keeping him through camp to see how things shake out.

In a perfect scenario I have Packers restructuring Matthews around 6 mill and extending him a year allowing him to retire as a Packer.

I like this scenario. If the packers could restructure and extend both Matthews and Nelson that would be a win. I hope they both retire as Packers. I still believe both have tremendous value.

 

[PackerDNA]

Tough decisions coming up, but at least they have options. A key consideration for me is that we're at the point of diminishing returns with Matthews and Nelson. Throw Bulaga in there too if his body is breaking down.

 

[adambr2]

They've put a lot of time and development into making Randall a corner, and he's finally turned into the top corner on the team. No way do they consider a move for him to free safety IMO.

They need HHCD to rebound in a big way, frankly.

 

[Mondio]

I like Bulaga. Seems like a good guy, works hard, and is pretty good, but his body just doesn't seem to hold up. 2012 missed half a season or so and ended on IR, 2013 he missed the entire season with a torn ACL, 2015 he was in and out of lineup, mostly available but always playing hurt, and then started this year hurt came back for a couple games and tore his ACL and was on IR for much of the season again. His body just doesn't seem to want to hold up to this game, and it's too bad. I hate to see that happen to good guys that play the game well. and he does. I haven't looked at his contract so I don't know what the ramifications are.

But healthy he's better than what we have behind him. and I'm not sure i can trust Spriggs or Murphy to stay healthy either, because in 2 years neither have. McCray, that guy just goes out and gets it done. He looks like an old school lineman that shouldn't be out there, yet he is. I'm very comfortable with him in a support role, but I would like a little better out of a starter. Just not sure who it is. Give Bulaga another chance? If I knew he was going to be healthy, it's a no brainer, but without looking, i'm sure there are a few million per year that have been in the training room and not on the field.

 

[HardRightEdge]

They've put a lot of time and development into making Randall a corner, and he's finally turned into the top corner on the team. No way do they consider a move for him to free safety IMO.

I agree they will not convert Randall to safety. That cow has already left the barn. I threw it out there for yucks since I've been complaining about his misuse since the day he was drafted. Besides, Randall would probably resist the move entering his contract year.

So, we have aging, injured and underperforming core and star players in Nelson, Matthews, Bulaga and Cobb. Extending these guys just makes the problem worse next year when they're a year older. And if, for example, as was proposed above, you offer Matthews 12 mil for 2 years to replace his $11.4 mil one year deal, what makes anybody think he'd take it? Nelson seems amenable, but on what terms?

In the mean time, Burnett has to be re-signed or replaced. Same with House. We assume the RG is not coming back.

And there's not a lot of cap space to work with. Randall and Clinton-Dix are entering contract years.

There's a lot to address without much cap space to do it.

There needs to be a two year plan with two good drafts. Thompson didn't get booted upstairs for nothing.

 

[Mondio]

I'm not in favor of any extensions on the aging guys. Make the decision, they can help us and play or they won't and cut them. It's a tough decision, it should be, but it needs to be made one way or the other. kicking the hurt down the road isn't going to help. We won't gain enough to make meaningful acquisitions unless everyone does it and then we won't be able to keep core young guys in 2-3 years. 2 year plan sounds about right and with a little luck, we'll still compete this next year for the big game, but it will take a little luck.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As long as he doesn't get hurt, I predict GREAT things from Randall this year. After all.....it's the last year of his Rookie contract and he is going to play his *** off for a big pay day.

 

[brandon2348]

The bottom line is you can't pay average production the sum of game changer money and win big in this league. There is only so much margin for error with this thing and Rodgers can only cover so much of it up.

If we were in New England we all know what would happen and all these guys would be cut at current deals. There really wouldn't even be any mystery about it. It's just bizz and the NFL and what it takes to stay competitive.

Then the second phase is having a clear vision and plan of re-loading roster with available resources. There is no reason to go into a 2 year re-build here. Not unless we have the wrong people in place which I hope we don't.

 

[HardRightEdge]

They've put a lot of time and development into making Randall a corner, and he's finally turned into the top corner on the team. No way do they consider a move for him to free safety IMO.

They need HHCD to rebound in a big way, frankly.

I don't think Clinton-Dix was as good as he was made out to be in 2016 nor as bad as he's being made out to be now.

As for his past season, when you're the last line of defense and other guys are not assignment-sure, you're bound to play tentatively.

As for the previous season, he was at the top of the INT list which is what people look at because they can't see what high safeties do on most plays. But I think it is fair to say he does not have the range or anticipation of what we would regard as top 6. He's an above average safety when the guys around him can be trusted.

He spent a good part of last year either playing high in low-high double teams or trying to cover for poor zone performance.