2018 Salary Cap Analysis

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bulaga is in the last 2 years of his 5 year contract.

CAP HIT DEAD CAP

2018 $7,903,125 $3.2M

2019 $8,350,000 $1.6M

Guessing the Packers will be keeping an eye on his recovery from his torn ACL......if he can't come back until mid season, might be worth moving on from him and take the $4.8M cap hit. If it looks like he can play, almost have to roll with him again, unless you have solid depth behind him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

They need to address the WR situation as well. Paying 35 million for Nelson, Cobb and Adams is ridiculous. Then there is the Bulaga situation. "Decisions Decisions".

If renegotiations are done properly they should adequately be able to bolster CB spot while keeping some combination of Matthews, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga in play on new cap friendly deals.

Then we have the draft.

I agree that the allocation to the WR position is not tenable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The issue I see with these big contract guys that we are talking about and maybe it's why TT is doing other things now, is that we have very little depth at their positions. So we jettison Cobb and Jordy, than what? Say goodbye to Matthews and Bulaga, who is ready to fill their shoes at the same level?

There should be a natural progression here with younger guys getting better, which allows you to pitch the older guys if their production doesn't meet their contracts. Except for Adams, TT has failed to find a WR, OLB or RT to take over the starting rolls.

I hope to see Gute get busy in Free Agency at those positions (and TE), if he does, I think we will all know which direction the Packers are leaning with the overpaid vets.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Bulaga is in the last 2 years of his 5 year contract.

CAP HIT DEAD CAP

2018 $7,903,125 $3.2M

2019 $8,350,000 $1.6M

Guessing the Packers will be keeping an eye on his recovery from his torn ACL......if he can't come back until mid season, but be worth moving on from him and take the $4.8M cap hit. If it looks like he can play, almost have to roll with him again, unless you have solid depth behind him.

Bulaga's release would not be a $4.8 mil cap hit. It would be $5.15 mil in cap savings:

https://overthecap.com/player/bryan-bulaga/1092/

Bulaga is a wild card about whom we have insufficient information. Spriggs 2.0 (or should we say 3.0) looked better than earlier versions. But with the position to his left a question mark as well, the right side of the line is certainly a matter of concern and interest.

A possible scenario is that Bulaga has lost some mobility but can still play whereby he'd be a fit at RG and rolling with Spriggs at RT. The problem there is that if Bulaga can play, which begins with the severity of the ACL and the rehab progress, and assuming he wants to play, you won't know what you have until camp.

 

[gbgary]

I'm not in favor of any extensions on the aging guys.

aging doesn't mean they're still not good. the new defense needs experienced guys to run it. you extend clay a couple of years at a reduced price. the crappy d isn't going to get better by just cutting your best linebacker. oh, and i still say move him inside and draft the best edge available at 14.
randal needs to stay at cb. he's not a hitter.
people saying they need a safety forget they drafted a safety/cb in josh jones. it's his natural position. he IS a hitter.
free agency will have a lot to say about what they do in the draft since it happens first.

they're going to have to ask themselves if they're in win-now mode or rebuilding mode. if it's rebuilding mode there's no better time than now to do the unthinkable for cle's 2 number one's. the cap issues suddenly go away too.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The bottom line is you can't pay average production the sum of game changer money and win big in this league. There is only so much margin for error with this thing and Rodgers can only cover so much of it up.

Agreed.

If we were in New England we all know what would happen and all these guys would be cut at current deals. There really wouldn't even be any mystery about it. It's just bizz and the NFL and what it takes to stay competitive.

If that's the way you feel then stop talking about renegotiations.

Under your Hoodie approach, start with the $13.5 million effective cap space as illustrated in post #1 of this thread. Going all Belichick by cutting the 4 players in question (Matthews, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga) buys you $36.3 million in cap savings, getting you right to the $50 million cap space mark. Hoodie's key to success has been his willingness and effectiveness in revamping his offensive scheme based on the availability of resources. He's had WR-centric offenses, balanced run/pass offenses, then as money got tight he transitioned to cheap slots to complement his TE with wideouts nobody can remember, while finding ways to win with an eroding defense. That approach is unique and you cannot expect to replicate it with a wave of the hand.

Now, starting from the roster as it exists now with that $50 mil in cap, you have to find starters at the following positions:

- wideout
- slot receiver
- RT
- RG
- TE remains an issue
- an edge rusher
- either a perimeter corner or slot corner, depending on where you want to play Randall
- SS
- while considering the FS and another corner in their contract years
- and the elephant in the room, the Rodgers extension

Now consider which up-and-comers currently on the roster can fill those spots. Maybe Spriggs and Brice/Jones. Maybe McCray at RG. That's about it among reasonable expectations, and those guys would need to make a jump to match what you've lost.

And you still have not filled the expensive impact positions at receiver, edge rusher and possibly perimeter corner, all positions that require a year of seasoning even for first rounders. And you need to have King make the jump.

Then the second phase is having a clear vision and plan of re-loading roster with available resources. There is no reason to go into a 2 year re-build here.

No matter how you cut it, reconciling those two sentences, given the Hoodie-like assumptions above, is more like magic wand waving than reasonable expectation.

The long term contracts signed, the draft and free agent patch-a-hole moves, were all built for a 2015-2017 window. You could go back a couple of years and find my post illustrating that if you want to do the work. I don't. You don't simply undo that. Gutekunst has a 5 year contract. Will he be allowed to use it? Maybe a little. McCarthy has 2 years on his deal.

 

[HardRightEdge]

As long as he doesn't get hurt, I predict GREAT things from Randall this year. After all.....it's the last year of his Rookie contract and he is going to play his *** off for a big pay day.

It think it's reasonable to expect "good" play from Randall, but he lacks something "great" corners have: the knack for spotting the ball before it gets there.

Whether being able to flip and run with your head around or read the receivers eyes to anticipate the approaching ball, great corners are not often left with their back to the ball, swiping at the receivers arms.

Not having that ability leaves you vulnerable to long throws, back shoulders, jump balls and interference calls. You can still be a good corner without that skill if you limit separation and thereby limit targets, but you will not be a shut down corner against better receivers.

Randall always looks better facing the play in zone in keeping with his natural FS skills.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It think it's reasonable to expect "good" play from Randall, but he lacks something "great" corners have: the knack for spotting the ball before it gets there.

Whether being able to flip and run with your head around or read the receivers eyes to anticipate the approaching ball, great corners are not often left with their back to the ball, swiping at the receivers arms.

Not having that ability leaves you vulnerable to long throws, back shoulders, jump balls and interference calls. You can still be a good corner without that skill if you limit separation and thereby limit targets, but you will not be a shut down corner against better receivers.

Agreed and I was being a bit sarcastic when I used the word "Great" in connection to Randall and his play during his contract year. But I do imagine him doing what most guys do in their contract year, put it all out there, whatever that may be.

But just for fun, let's say Randall has a Pro Bowl season in 2018, what are you willing to resign the guy for?

 

[Mondio]

aging doesn't mean they're still not good. the new defense needs experienced guys to run it. you extend clay a couple of years at a reduced price. the crappy d isn't going to get better by just cutting your best linebacker. oh, and i still say move him inside and draft the best edge available at 14.
randal needs to stay at cb. he's not a hitter.
people saying they need a safety forget they drafted a safety/cb in josh jones. it's his natural position. he IS a hitter.
free agency will have a lot to say about what they do in the draft since it happens first.

they're going to have to ask themselves if they're in win-now mode or rebuilding mode. if it's rebuilding mode there's no better time than now to do the unthinkable for cle's 2 number one's. the cap issues suddenly go away too.

Problem is, if best available edge guy at 14 is Jamal Reynolds, i'm not picking him regardless of who we have on the roster. Not when I could use RT, DB, DB, ILB too

 

[Mondio]

Randall doesn't seem to get his head around quite in time to make the spectacular plays. Not sure if that gets better or not. He's good though. On the flip side, when he's watching the QB, he breaks on the ball and can play it in the air like a great player can.

and he may not be Nick Collins when it comes to hitting, but he can play the run. He made more than a couple really nice plays in the run game last year and behind the LOS too. on his own and prevented some really big plays.

 

[brandon2348]

Agreed.



If that's the way you feel then stop talking about renegotiations.

Under your Hoodie approach, start with the $13.5 million effective cap space as illustrated in post #1 of this thread. Going all Belichick by cutting the 4 players in question (Matthews, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga) buys you $36.3 million in cap savings, getting you right to the $50 million cap space mark. Hoodie's key to success has been his willingness and effectiveness in revamping his offensive scheme based on the availability of resources. He's had WR-centric offenses, balanced run/pass offenses, then as money got tight he transitioned to cheap slots to complement his TE with wideouts nobody can remember, while finding ways to win with an eroding defense. That approach is unique and you cannot expect to replicate it with a wave of the hand.

Now, starting from the roster as it exists now with that $50 mil in cap, you have to find starters at the following positions:

- wideout
- slot receiver
- RT
- RG
- TE remains an issue
- an edge rusher
- either a perimeter corner or slot corner, depending on where you want to play Randall
- SS
- while considering the FS and another corner in their contract years
- and the elephant in the room, the Rodgers extension

Now consider which up-and-comers currently on the roster can fill those spots. Maybe Spriggs and Brice/Jones. Maybe McCray at RG. That's about it among reasonable expectations, and those guys would need to make a jump to match what you've lost.

And you still have not filled the expensive impact positions at receiver, edge rusher and possibly perimeter corner, all positions that require a year of seasoning even for first rounders. And you need to have King make the jump.



No matter how you cut it, reconciling those two sentences, given the Hoodie-like assumptions above, is more like magic wand waving than reasonable expectation.

The long term contracts signed, the draft and free agent patch-a-hole moves, were all built for a 2015-2017 window. You could go back a couple of years and find my post illustrating that if you want to do the work. I don't. You don't simply undo that. Gutekunst has a 5 year contract. Will he be allowed to use it? Maybe a little. McCarthy has 2 years on his deal.

Nobody said it was going to be easy nor should it be. 50 mill and eleven draft picks should mitigate replacing a bunch of average production IMO. Time to give this thing a face lift. I am not for renegotiating all of the dead weight but keeping 1 or 2 to lessen the blow wouldn't be the worst thing imaginable.

We're going to find out rather quickly what we have in Gutekunst.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I haven't read many comments about Ha Ha Dix and the $5,597,000 due to him next year. He might have been my biggest disappointment on Defense this year. I expected him to step it up and he seemed to decline, almost seemingly afraid to make a hit.

No dead cap on this his final year on his extended Rookie deal, I doubt the Packers part ways with him, but they need more out of him at that price.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Agreed and I was being a bit sarcastic when I used the word "Great" in connection to Randall and his play during his contract year. But I do imagine him doing what most guys do in their contract year, put it all out there, whatever that may be.

But just for fun, let's say Randall has a Pro Bowl season in 2018, what are you willing to resign the guy for?

First, I find that scenario highly implausible, but lets go with it.

It is not reasonable to project an outcome without first seeing what transpires in the interim. There are way too many balls in the air at the moment.

I'll say this much: there's little love lost between Randall and his head coach, a guy who evidently is going to have more say in personnel matters. Whether you look at the sideline tantrum or Randall's recent comments, he's had a ******* for accountability, justified or not. McCarthy said recently he should shut up an stick to his knitting. Randall has expended a whole lot of his first round draft pick benefit-of-the-doubt capital.

So the first prerequisite for his retention following a Pro Bowl season would be newfound mutual love and affection engendered by his new DC. After that it's about the money. To make the Pro Bowl you have to be playing perimeter corner. A second contract Pro Bowl perimeter corner is a very expensive item. Then it becomes how much cap do you have and "who else ya got?' when that time comes.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Nobody said it was going to be easy nor should it be. 50 mill and eleven draft picks should mitigate replacing a bunch of average production IMO. Time to give this thing a face lift. I am not for renegotiating all of the dead weight but keeping 1 or 2 to lessen the blow wouldn't be the worst thing imaginable.

We're going to find out rather quickly what we have in Gutekunst.

I agree with that. And that looks like a two year project.

I'd not rule out a 10 win 2018 season and making the playoffs under a two year plan. But I don't think you can count on championship calibre in one year without relying on the weaknesses of others at opportune moments.

There's simply not enough cap and too many years of mediocre-to-poor drafts in the rear view mirror.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

Actually, they'd need two. Nobody around here seems to have noticed House is a free agent. At least Randall at FS, Clinton-Dix as FS/SS swing man, and Jones at SS/IL swing man would solve Burnett's departure, if it happens. His free agent status also seems to have been forgotten.

You'd like to think Pettine can do something about Jones (and King for that matter) being constantly lost in zone coverages.

Pettine likes to run a lot of man coverage. The change in scheme might help King be a better defensive back.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pettine likes to run a lot of man coverage. The change in scheme might help King be a better defensive back.

I'm really stating the obvious, but the Packer really need the Kevin King pick to pan out. If his injuries are such that he can't become an effective #1 or he stays healthy but his play is only average, it's going to leave a big dent at the position and feel like we haven't accomplished anything in 3 years at CB, despite the draft resources thrown at it.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

I'm really stating the obvious, but the Packer really need the Kevin King pick to pan out. If his injuries are such that he can't become an effective #1 or he stays healthy but his play is only average, it's going to leave a big dent at the position and feel like we haven't accomplished anything in 3 years at CB, despite the draft resources thrown at it.

I agree. The amount of resources thrown at the cornerback position in the last three years is ridiculous. The Packers have two spent two first round picks and a second round pick on corners in the past three drafts and the position is still unsettled.

It's especially frustrating (for me anyways) due to the excellent rookie seasons by TJ Watt and Tak McKinley (since the Packers have almost no pass rush) and All-Pro seasons by Casey Heyward and Micah Hyde.

 

[elcid]

I agree. The amount of resources thrown at the cornerback position in the last three years is ridiculous. The Packers have two spent two first round picks and a second round pick on corners in the past three drafts and the position is still unsettled.

It's especially frustrating (for me anyways) due to the excellent rookie seasons by TJ Watt and Tak McKinley (since the Packers have almost no pass rush) and All-Pro seasons by Casey Heyward and Micah Hyde.

To be fair, McKinley was never available and of these 2 corners you mentioned only Hayward might have been a solid CB1 for us.


Furthermore, I'd like to touch upon the salary cap discussion here a little closer. I've seen a lot of people arguing that Cobb is supposed to take the pay cut over Nelson. While I agree that Cobb has not produced anything in the last 2 seasons, surely his versatility and youth makes him more worth the price tag than an aging and slower Nelson? Imo if the Packers are trying to restructure a contract, its going to be Jordy. I'd also argue that this avenue would be the most succesful in opening up salary cap since not only does the man bleed green and gold, he is a fair and rational dude who seems to just want to get to the SB one last time. He knows that he is not worth the price tag, nor ever will be again while Cobb (while also very down to earth, respectful and with a great work ethic) knows that in potential he can still be worth the money his contract is paying him.

Ideally, I'd see the Pack trim 5m of Nelson's contract, and 2m of each Cobb's and Matthews's contracts.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I thought 13 mil salary cap available was grim. Then I realized that estimate included the highest rise in cap space available for the year... 11 mil...

What if they only give us 8 more? Or 6?

All of a sudden Greenbay has only 8 mil to go get free agents....

I'm sorry. But it's rebuild time. We have a hoard of draft picks. A young team. And a handful of veterans who make too much, and a hall of fame qb who is going to end up in LA, or Vegas if we aren't careful...

 

[HardRightEdge]

I thought 13 mil salary cap available was grim. Then I realized that estimate included the highest rise in cap space available for the year... 11 mil...

What if they only give us 8 more? Or 6?

All of a sudden Greenbay has only 8 mil to go get free agents....

I'm sorry. But it's rebuild time. We have a hoard of draft picks. A young team. And a handful of veterans who make too much, and a hall of fame qb who is going to end up in LA, or Vegas if we aren't careful...

The NFL has advised teams that the expected cap will be in the range of $174 - $178 million.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-salary-cap-2018-figure-projection/946805001/

You are correct that my $13.5 million estimate was based on overthecap's data and their $178 million cap number. I suppose it could go as low $9.5 millon using the lower bound in the range.

I've noted something recently that I might as well note again:

Cap rollover has been in place since 2011-to-2012. That's seven years. And the accumulated rollover into 2018 is about $9 million, or about $1.3 million unused cap per year. And every year since there are numerous calls for the signing of one expensive free agent or another. And here we are, at it again.

It won't be easy to fix but it is not as bad as "rebuild time". But it will take a couple of good drafts.

 

[brandon2348]

The NFL has advised teams that the expected cap will be in the range of $174 - $178 million.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-salary-cap-2018-figure-projection/946805001/

You are correct that my $13.5 million estimate was based on overthecap's data and their $178 million. I suppose it could go as low $9.5 millon using the lower range.

I've noted something recently that I might as well note again:

Cap rollover has been in place since 2011-to-2012. That's seven years. And the accumulated rollover into 2018 is about $9 million, or about $1.3 million unused cap per year. And every year since there are numerous calls fro the signing of one expensive free agent or another. And here we are, at it again.

It won't be easy to fix but it is not as bad as "rebuild time". But it will take a couple of good drafts.

It's a mini rebuild. It can come quick if they hit this draft well. You look at the Saints and all the production they got out of there recent draft shows it is possible. That draft they just had put them right back in the playoffs and contention.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's a mini rebuild. It can come quick if they hit this draft well. You look at the Saints and all the production they got out of there recent draft shows it is possible. That draft they just had put them right back in the playoffs and contention.

After 3 straight 7-9 seasons. The Saints had 5 picks in the top 76. The Packers will have 2 with a close 3rd. It's possible the Packers hit several some home runs in the draft, but that would be a happy eventuality not something to be expected. You have to be good and lucky. Good in properly assessing the players and their fit; lucky with a couple of "I cannot believe that guy is still on the board" moments.

 

[PackerDNA]

I just read an article this morning- and I'm seeing the same line of thought on this site- that if the Packers don't 'get their act together' and get him some help, Rodgers will leave.
Two words; franchise tag.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

I just read an article this morning- and I'm seeing the same line of thought on this site- that if the Packers don't 'get their act together' and get him some help, Rodgers will leave.
Two words; franchise tag.

Two words; death sentence

I'd rather the Packers trade Rodgers today than have to deal with possibly franchise tagging him in the future.

 

[Mondio]

The NFL has advised teams that the expected cap will be in the range of $174 - $178 million.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-salary-cap-2018-figure-projection/946805001/

You are correct that my $13.5 million estimate was based on overthecap's data and their $178 million cap number. I suppose it could go as low $9.5 millon using the lower bound in the range.

I've noted something recently that I might as well note again:

Cap rollover has been in place since 2011-to-2012. That's seven years. And the accumulated rollover into 2018 is about $9 million, or about $1.3 million unused cap per year. And every year since there are numerous calls for the signing of one expensive free agent or another. And here we are, at it again.

It won't be easy to fix but it is not as bad as "rebuild time". But it will take a couple of good drafts.

exactly, we aren't drowning in cap commitments, but we're not swimming in cash to spend either. We have a core of some good players locked up, some aging vets that could be cut if they really had someone else targeted (though I'm not leaning that way) and the best draft position we've had in a decade and a lot of picks to do stuff with.

The right decisions need to be made, but for a team in transition, we're in pretty good shape all things considered.