2018 Salary Cap Analysis

[HardRightEdge]

There is a good amount of fat to trim on this roster if the Packers want to pickup some cap space.

Fair enough. So, who are they, how much do you save, and who are you gonna replace them with?

Everybody starts with who the underperformers are, but who else ya got or can get? If you ain't got somebody better, then overpaying may be necessary.

You're going to find overpaid players on every roster. The exception might be the tear down and rebuild cases, like the massive amount of dead cap McKensie absorbed in his first 2 years in Oakland. I don't think we're there yet.

 

[Poppa San]

What is the equation to figure what round comp pick a team gets for losing a established starting veteran? Even if the veteran hasn't produced.

NFL doesn't say. I recall some website being reputed as very close with their comp pick predictions. Can't recall who but it was posted here a season or two back.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

The NFL does not disclose how they make the determination, though they provide hints: the size of the free agent contract, playing time and performance (such as offseason awards).

History shows the main factor is the size of the free agent contract.

There's a cap on how many compensatory picks will be awarded. It used to be 32; I don't know if that has changed. If they don't find 32 worthies for rounds 3-6, they slap the remainder on at the end of the 7th. round.

Another important consideration is whether the value of free agents lost exceeds the value of free agents signed. Interestingly enough, the Packers cut Bennett just before the week 10 deadline that would have qualified him as a Packer FA signing for compensatory purposes. It would not have been a bad idea to cut him anyway even if the injury nonsense had not arisen because he sure wasn't contributing much while dropping a lot of balls. Decent blocker, though. Had he stuck, he probably would have wiped out whatever pick we get for Hyde or Lang given the size of his contract.

I said earlier that Hyde is worth a 3rd. round comp, but that may have been a moment of weakness. The dollars might not be there. Same for Lang. Recall Williams and House got nice contracts, and ended up being 4th. round comps. Hayward made the Pro Bowl and only netted a 5th. rounder because of the modest 3 year/$15 mil contract. It still seems funny calling that modest, but it is for a cornerback.

Hyde/Lang: maybe a couple of 4th. rounders, maybe a 3rd. and a 4th.

Cook and lacy both got decent free agent contracts too... and tretter...

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

Fair enough. So, who are they, how much do you save, and who are you gonna replace them with?

WOW! That is a lot of questions for one sentence! That's also a lot of work to figure out cap hits and look at other teams' free agents and/or the draft to figure out replacements. I'll answer the first question, but nobody has the amount of time to answer the second two questions: Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, and Bryan Bulaga are three names that stand out. Matthews and Bulaga are injured too often and Cobb has never lived up to his contact. Packers have no internal replacements for Matthews (since the team has zero pass rush).

 

[Half Empty]

Net initial gain for those three ('how much do you save?') is somewhat over $25 mil. However, then one needs to address the third question and take whatever their replacements cost off of that.

 

[mradtke66]

Jordy isn't done. I could easily see him restructure or get cut and resigned a couple weeks later. But him making #1 wr money, and not getting open even with #12 throwing the ball. It doesn't add up.

You do realize just how product Jordy was to start the season, right? After 5 games, Jordy was on pace for 730 yards and 19 TDs. Adams was on pace for 912 yards and 12 TDs. But please, explain to me how he couldn't get open "even with 12 throwing him the ball."

 

[thequick12]

$5 mil is hardly a figure I'd associate with a "good" free agent at the key (and expensive) positions of OLB, WR or CB. You're likely to end up with a lot of adequate vets, little impact, and little playmaking.

You might be able to get a good center, guard, safety or ILB at that price, but those are hardly the key issues nor do they replace the guys you just cut.

Casey Hayward signed for like 3 years 15 million Micah Hyde signed for 5 years 30 million those are both good free agent signings. Julius peppers signed for 3.5 million that was a good signing. So I'd say 5 million a year is a good average number for a quality free agent. I think you can resign Morgan Burnett for 5 m a year which would be a good signing or a better signing might be Tre Boston for 6 m a year who knows. Also I think if as a gm you plan to keep any of the 3 Cobb Nelson or Matthews beyound 2018 you extend them now and lower that cap number down to what they could likely expect on the open market. For Matthews I say that's in the 7/8 m a year on a 3 year deal similar to what peppers signed here. Right there you save 3.4 m. Nelson he's a 5/6 m player probably on nothing more than a 1y ear deal elsewhere. Also I think he'd retire rather than play elsewhere so let's say 5 m year by adding 2 years. That's 5.4 m saved in 2018. As for Cobb if you don't want him after 2018 then just leave him be or cut him. If you wanna extend him he's a 5/6 m year guy. Let's say you extend him at 6m for 2 extra years. You save 3.5 m. Then you have 3 quality wr locked in for 3 seasons while the receivers you select high in the draft (Christian Kirk) this year and in 2019 develop. Also you end up with 25.8 m in cap space in 2018 going off the 13.5 number. The problem you end up with is Cobb is best in slot and Nelson at this point is best there too. So you need someone outside. That's where. Signing jimmy graham comes in. MM loves to line up his big athletic fast te on the outside and there's nobody better for that role than graham. I'm guessing he's gonna be 7/8 m a year let's say 8 that still leaves you with 17.8 m. Then Burnett 5 m per and your down to 12.8 m. And this is assuming the contract structure is just evenly split which it won't be. Then sign Richard Rodgers for 2 m a year and cut Lance Kendricks to save 1.3 m and you've got 2 of your 3 tes. Draft mark Anthony or Troy fumagali and your set. You've also got 12 m in salary cap space left to do whatever. Extend Rodgers or sign another free agent for Pettine.

 

[gbgary]

they're right in the middle of the league in cap space. they'll renegotiate nelson, matthews, and maybe cobb. no reason to cut them. they're 3 of our most important players. the idea is to get better...not worse.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Too much has been made about Jordy being washed up....

People tend to view these things in a binary fashion, hero or bum.

The way I see it he's stepped down to possession receiver status in a receiving crew that is a collection of possession receivers. The days of "White Lightning" are over. (That nickname comes from pro-football-reference.com, so don't go all racial.) And he's at an age where an extension has a high risk of throwing bad money into the equation.

I think we're looking at stand pat or release, with a wildcard that we cannot assess: did he have an undisclosed nagging injury last season with a positive prognosis. Even if that injury scenario is in play, an extension would be imprudent.

 

[Half Empty]

the idea is to get better...not worse.

Now, why didn't I think of that?

 

[mradtke66]

Cook and lacy both got decent free agent contracts too... and tretter...

IIRC, a team can only get a max of 4. The big contracts were Tretter, Lang, and Hyde. Those three are obvious. Cook might be the 4th. We're projected to get something like a 3 and 3x 5's. But that's all speculation.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

IIRC, a team can only get a max of 4. The big contracts were Tretter, Lang, and Hyde. Those three are obvious. Cook might be the 4th. We're projected to get something like a 3 and 3x 5's. But that's all speculation.

that is what I have read as well.

OverTheCap.com has T.J. Lang, (third round), Micah Hyde (fifth round), J.C. Tretter (fifth round) and Jared Cook (fifth round).

Had the Packers held on to Marty B past week 10, the Micah Hyde pick would have been cancelled out and replaced with Eddie Lacy and a 6th round pick.

 

[Half Empty]

OverTheCap has our comp picks as 3/5/6/6 https://overthecap.com/2018-compensatory-draft-picks-update-592017/ and nfl.com as 3/5/7/7 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...jecting-compensatory-picks-for-2018-nfl-draft

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

OverTheCap has our comp picks as 3/5/6/6 https://overthecap.com/2018-compensatory-draft-picks-update-592017/ and nfl.com as 3/5/7/7 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...jecting-compensatory-picks-for-2018-nfl-draft

I think both of those are old sources.

Given the complexity and apparent secrecy of how these picks are calculated, I don't think anyone knows for sure what they will actually be until they are announced.

The most recent (1/6/18) thing I found on the Packers was what I posted above and can be found in the chart here:

https://overthecap.com/projecting-2018-compensatory-picks/

 

[HardRightEdge]

they're right in the middle of the league in cap space. they'll renegotiate nelson, matthews, and maybe cobb. no reason to cut them. they're 3 of our most important players. the idea is to get better...not worse.

Middle of league in cap space is nothing to be excited about. And your proposal is a self-contradiction and would make a bad general manager. You can't call a player one of the most important, with no adequate replacement in the fold as in these cases, and then expect them to renegotiate in any significant way. Of course any knucklehead could renegotiate and extend these contracts in way that would make the player happy and buy cap space in 2018, but that's a recipe for disaster.

I would not venture a guess on precisely what will happen with each of these players given the unknowns. One thing I do know is what you described will not happen.

 

[gbgary]

Middle of league in cap space is nothing to be excited about. And your proposal is a self-contradiction and would make a bad general manager. You can't call a player one of the most important, with no adequate replacement in the fold as in these cases, and then expect them to renegotiate in any significant way. Of course any knucklehead could renegotiate and extend these contracts in way that would make the player happy and buy cap space in 2018, but that's a recipe for disaster.

I would not venture a guess on precisely what will happen with each of these players given the unknowns. One thing I do know is what you described will not happen.

jordy's already said he'd be open to a cut/restructure. if the others aren't then they very well may be cut. they'd both be looking at cuts if they went somewhere else anyway so i don't see why they wouldn't adjust their contract to stay with Rodgers. that's your leverage. without matthews (who needs to move to the middle) and cobb the team is going to be worse though. as for exciting cap position there's only one way to make that happen. if that's even an option there's no better time than now to do it. nobody wants to do that though. so...after the 3 adjustments that i think they'll do, extending Rodgers, signing one or two good free agents they'll be near the bottom of the league in cap space and looking at a 9-7 record, or worse (without matthews and cobb), next season .

 

[HardRightEdge]

jordy's already said he'd be open to a cut/restructure. if the others aren't then they very well may be cut. they'd both be looking at cuts if they went somewhere else anyway so i don't see why they wouldn't adjust their contract to stay with Rodgers. that's your leverage. without matthews (who needs to move to the middle) and cobb the team is going to be worse though. as for exciting cap position there's only one way to make that happen. if that's even an option there's no better time than now to do it. nobody wants to do that though. so...after the 3 adjustments that i think they'll do, extending Rodgers, signing one or two good free agents they'll be near the bottom of the league in cap space and looking at a 9-7 record, or worse (without matthews and cobb), next season .

Oh, I'm sure Jordy will not be looking at a a "cut/restructure". First of all, there's nothing left to restructure with only one year left on his deal. Second, he would be talking about an extension, if the team was willing to do so, that might buy cap in 2018. You would not want to do that. There's no magic bullet with a player in his twilight.

Matthews move to the middle? LOL I wouldn't pay him the veteran minimum to play middle linebacker. What a colossal waste of the productivity he still has left. Even a couple years ago he was a lousy ILB.

 

[mradtke66]

without matthews (who needs to move to the middle)

Terrible MLB. He just looked better by comparison to an Aging AJ Hawk and flat tire Brad Jones.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Terrible MLB. He just looked better by comparison to an Aging AJ Hawk and flat tire Brad Jones.

And truth be told, he was not even that good. Does nobody remember he went two consecutive games at ILB without making a single tackle? How is that even possible? Matthews accomplished it, though.

 

[mradtke66]

Second, he would be talking about an extension, if the team was willing to do so, that might buy cap in 2018. You would not want to do that. There's no magic bullet with a player in his twilight.

It wouldn't be a horrible move, just more than a little risk. An extra 2 years with the understanding that he's no. 3 and primarily the slot guy? He'd probably be worth it, depending on what the actual extension looks like.

He was still pretty productive the first five games last year, but yes, the end will come quickly.

 

[Mike McCarthy]

There’s no reason to believe Matthews is an asset at olb at this point of his career either.

 

[mradtke66]

And truth be told, he was not even that good. Does nobody remember he went two consecutive games at ILB without making a single tackle? How is that even possible? Matthews accomplished it, though.

He wasn't the worst ILB ever (see previous comment) and even made a couple of plays here and there. That pick against Chicago was it?

But yeah, down in and out as a run plugger? Not that good at it and doesn't play to his strengths.

 

[mradtke66]

There’s no reason to believe Matthews is an asset at olb at this point of his career either.

7.5 sacks, average run defender, great run defender when the play is away from him. He's also on the downslope of his career, but there's a big difference between "declining" and worthless.

 

[gbgary]

Oh, I'm sure Jordy will not be looking at a a "cut/restructure". First of all, there's nothing left to restructure with only one year left on his deal. Second, he would be talking about an extension, if the team was willing to do so, that might buy cap in 2018. You would not want to do that. There's no magic bullet with a player in his twilight.

Matthews move to the middle? LOL I wouldn't pay him the veteran minimum to play middle linebacker. What a colossal waste of the productivity he still has left. Even a couple years ago he was a lousy ILB.

extension w/a cut is what i was talking about...for all three. clay was actually pretty solid in the middle, but not great, for never having played there before. he really can't play olb at a high level anymore so moving inside makes sense to get most out of him. he's still got a couple of years left. they'll need experienced players to run the new defense pettine will install. the Packers will draft an edge rusher with their first pick to replace him. why cut him?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Given that there is no dead cap money left on his contract, the decision on Matthews is really simplified this year. Is he worth $11,368,750 and if not, can he be replaced? They still will need to find someone to play OLB equal or better to him.

Last year people were screaming for him to be cut or "traded", but he had a dead cap hit of $14.575M, would have made no sense to cut him.