2017 Draft/FA Needs - Ranked

[McKnowledge]

Neither has Matthews been named defensive player of the year nor has Daniels made the Pro Bowl so far in their careers.

Pardon self...NFC Defensive MVP (2010). Daniels (wishful thinking).

 

[JK64]

The Packers should nevertheless upgrade the cornerback position in free agency with a veteran that has already proved to be capable of performing at a high level in the NFL.

This can't be said enough IMO.

 

[JK64]

It's all about how the contracts are structured. Chandler Jones at about $16M a year sounds about right.
But that could be made to be 8M against the cap in 2017.

I am leery about Jones. Anyone that shows up a the police station nude....

 

[JK64]

His hammies and shoulder do indeed need to be reconstructed LOL


but anyway. Yea it doesn't make sense for him as an individual to have his deal restructured. But if you go to him and say " if we had an extra 5 mil we could make some big time moves to better the defense and take the load off of you"......then maybe you agree to it. He should agree with it. But I bet it doesn't work that way in the reality of the NFL.

Wasn't CMIII saying he needed surgery this off season?

 

[JK64]

yup which is why they have to be careful with clay's restructure contract.

I don't think Clay will restructure.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think Clay will restructure.

more like....Clay is not required to restructure.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Pardon self...NFC Defensive MVP (2010).

Well, Matthews won the Kansas City Committee of 101 NFC defensive player of the year award in 2010 but honestly before looking it up I had never heard about it. Therefore I take it with a grain of salt.

Wasn't CMIII saying he needed surgery this off season?

As far as I know offseason shoulder surgery was discussed as a possibility for Matthews but hasn't been confirmed so far.

 

[Pkrjones]

As far as I know offseason shoulder surgery was discussed as a possibility for Matthews but hasn't been confirmed so far.

He would need to pass a physical before being traded or cut, and I don't believe he'd pass one any time soon. I haven't found any details on his bonus $$, but I don't think anything is due on the league's 1st or 3rd day, so timing isn't critical unless he tries to let it heal on its own and then wants surgery in late June.

 

[PikeBadger]

I don't see how that matters. There are always several positions of need. If the "best available player" at priority #2 is deemed sufficiently better than the best available player at priority #1, that the priority #2 player is selected hardly proves the case. The reality is that the quality found at #15 or #20 depending on draft depth is not much different than that at #50. The key differentiaters are need and scheme fit. With multiple priorities, you're going to find a player in that group at a position of need.

If one wants to say "best available player among the high priority needs", then I would not argue.

We have a record of at least 6 consecutive examples of first round picks to demonstrate that.

What a GM does in trying to get over the top is different from what he does once he's achieved that and wants to repeat it.

The Packers will not be drafting a QB, OT or safety in the first round, for example, no matter how good they think he might be because he won't be much better than a player at a position of need. Also, the Packers will not be spending a first round pick on a RB, C, OG or ILB, no matter how good the player might be because they do not value those positions as "bang for the buck" propositions.

It takes a radical mispricing of injury or dope risk in a superior talent available at #29 to make the best player available case interesting, and Thompson avoids those players like the plague in his risk/reward calculations.

One caveat: Thompson might draft a natural FS for conversion to CB.

Thompson's sub-par record with these last six 1st. round picks suggests he ought to trade down.

I strongly agree that picks 15 and 50 are much closer in talent level and potential than most people realize. I cringe when I see people refer to all those 1st round picks as busts when in reality all of our 1st rounders are much closer to second round talent than they are to a top 5-10 1st round pick. I'm probably an outlier here but I think that Rodgers phenomenal career is due in large part to McCarthy's coaching. Imo, Peppers is probably the only top 3-5 guy on the team. We generally don't have access to natural talent like he possesses. I do believe that Woodson was another one of those incredibly talented players.

All that aside. I tend to agree that in most years, we'd do better by trading back with our 1st round pick however, as we all know it takes two to tango. I think those types of trades are harder to make than most of us realize.

 

[Dantés]

I strongly agree that picks 15 and 50 are much closer in talent level and potential than most people realize. I cringe when I see people refer to all those 1st round picks as busts when in reality all of our 1st rounders are much closer to second round talent than they are to a top 5-10 1st round pick. I'm probably an outlier here but I think that Rodgers phenomenal career is due in large part to McCarthy's coaching. Imo, Peppers is probably the only top 3-5 guy on the team. We generally don't have access to natural talent like he possesses. I do believe that Woodson was another one of those incredibly talented players.

All that aside. I tend to agree that in most years, we'd do better by trading back with our 1st round pick however, as we all know it takes two to tango. I think those types of trades are harder to make than most of us realize.

So to clarify-- you don't consider Rodgers a top 5 quarterback?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think those types of trades are harder to make than most of us realize.

It does take two to tango.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

All that aside. I tend to agree that in most years, we'd do better by trading back with our 1st round pick however, as we all know it takes two to tango. I think those types of trades are harder to make than most of us realize.

I think that is always an option in TT's mind but depends on what players are still on the board when the Packers are getting ready to pick. In this years draft, if TT doesn't address the CB and OLB needs in Free Agency, I would prefer he trade the #29 pick and whatever else makes the deal work, to obtain a quality starter at one of those 2 positions. We need a few players on defense now, not guys who may or may not be starters in 2-4 years.

 

[PikeBadger]

So to clarify-- you don't consider Rodgers a top 5 quarterback?

I don't think that coming out of college that he was what I would consider a top 3 or top 5 draft pick. I think that his year class was widely considered to be a weak QB class.

 

[Dantés]

I don't think that coming out of college that he was what I would consider a top 3 or top 5 draft pick. I think that his year class was widely considered to be a weak QB class.

So basically what you're saying is that consistently picking in the back of the draft has hurt the Packers' chances of landing blue chip talent?

 

[Poppa San]

So basically what you're saying is that consistently picking in the back of the draft has hurt the Packers' chances of landing blue chip talent?

We discussed and cited this in another thread about a month ago. Not saying it is a perfect measuring stick but IIRC, over a 3 year period only about 1/2 the probowl players were picked in the first round. That means that in theory and with hindsight one could build a probowl roster team without a first round pick. The stats did not tease out the 25th-32nd players of the first round which is where the Packers have been drafting lately. It is tough but for a draft guru like Ted it should be a walk in the park? (maybe that's the thread.)

 

[PikeBadger]

So basically what you're saying is that consistently picking in the back of the draft has hurt the Packers' chances of landing blue chip talent?

Yes, the real cream in terms of physical natural ability of any draft class generally gets lopped off very early.

 

[Dantés]

We discussed and cited this in another thread about a month ago. Not saying it is a perfect measuring stick but IIRC, over a 3 year period only about 1/2 the probowl players were picked in the first round. That means that in theory and with hindsight one could build a probowl roster team without a first round pick. The stats did not tease out the 25th-32nd players of the first round which is where the Packers have been drafting lately. It is tough but for a draft guru like Ted it should be a walk in the park? (maybe that's the thread.)

Yeah, I recall that conversation.

But I would persist that you're overstating that case. There has never been a front office with the capability of filling out a great roster without the benefit of their first round picks.

50% of the pro bowlers, by your source, were found in the first 32 picks. The rest were spread across the combination of the ~220 remaing draft slots and ~512 free agents darts that teams collectively take each year. 32 vs. ~732.

You're emphasizing the raw numbers of pro bowlers between round 1 and everything else without considering how much different the pools are.

 

[Poppa San]

Yeah, I recall that conversation.

But I would persist that you're overstating that case. There has never been a front office with the capability of filling out a great roster without the benefit of their first round picks.

50% of the pro bowlers, by your source, were found in the first 32 picks. The rest were spread across the combination of the ~220 remaing draft slots and ~512 free agents darts that teams collectively take each year. 32 vs. ~732.

You're emphasizing the raw numbers of pro bowlers between round 1 and everything else without considering how much different the pools are.

Just pointing out in theory it is possible. About as likely as Olivia dumping Aaron to steal me from my wife if we ever met.

 

[Half Empty]

Yes, the real cream in terms of physical natural ability of any draft class generally gets lopped off very early.

Maybe that's the key word. The real difference-makers are probably gone in the single-digit picks. I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions (a couple of Packers, to start), but perhaps just focusing on the 'first round' is wrong. If the Packers hadn't even made the playoffs during TT's tenure, he could have been picking 20th instead of lower. Would that have made much of an impact?

 

[PikeBadger]

I think that is always an option in TT's mind but depends on what players are still on the board when the Packers are getting ready to pick. In this years draft, if TT doesn't address the CB and OLB needs in Free Agency, I would prefer he trade the #29 pick and whatever else makes the deal work, to obtain a quality starter at one of those 2 positions. We need a few players on defense now, not guys who may or may not be starters in 2-4 years.

I think that is always an option in TT's mind but depends on what players are still on the board when the Packers are getting ready to pick.




I think so too. We'll probably never know for sure. One thing I've always suspected is that the Packers board looks different than most teams and would have allowed Thompson to trade back and still get his targets many times. I also think that in the last few years the draft has become more difficult for Thompson because a number of his former employees now are using a similar draft philosophy or elements there in and know how he thinks. I also think trades are harder to make now because other GM's have studied his methods. All of which could support a sound argument that maybe a new face in that role would be appropriate soon.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He would need to pass a physical before being traded or cut, and I don't believe he'd pass one any time soon. I haven't found any details on his bonus $$, but I don't think anything is due on the league's 1st or 3rd day, so timing isn't critical unless he tries to let it heal on its own and then wants surgery in late June.

The Packers could trade or release Matthews even with him not being healthy. He will receive a $500K workout bonus for participating in OTAs and minicamp.

 

[El Guapo]

One thing that I can say with near confidence, is that the Packers won't trade/release Clay Matthews in the same offseason that they let Nick Perry walk in FA. They should keep at least one, but both are often hurt. One could make the argument that in recent years Perry has been on the rise and Matthews on the decline. Matthews was more of an elite/impact player in his prime and still may be. Perry's stats were better this year, partially due to playing in more games and it being a contract year.

I hate to say that when you factor in salaries, Perry might be the better value at this point (depending on what he's able to be signed for).

 

[Arthur Squires]

Lately I've seen some mocks with Jabril Peppers falling late 1st early 2nd round. It makes me wonder is TT would pull trigger on star athlete like Peppers with our 1st pick. Or does his go to New England just to make them a better team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lately I've seen some mocks with Jabril Peppers falling late 1st early 2nd round. It makes me wonder is TT would pull trigger on star athlete like Peppers with our 1st pick. Or does his go to New England just to make them a better team.

I truly hope Thompson passes on Peppers if he's still on the board by the time the Packers pick. He doesn't address any of the team's biggest needs at all.

 

[Sky King]

I truly hope Thompson passes on Peppers if he's still pn the board by the time the Packers pick. He doesn't address any of the team's biggest needs at all.

Hopefully, somebody picking not too far after #29 would trade-up with the Packers to get him - if that scenario were to play out.