2016 Playoffs round 2 -- in big D

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Lmao at all these fans

Which ones ?

 

[COWBOYS☆]

Which ones ?

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

 

[COWBOYS☆]

Is Montgomery playing?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

very inciteful. Thanks for coming.

 

[Mondio]

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

This guy hasn't paid much attention. Found a post and translated it to "all of them" LOL

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

They`re coming out of the woodwork tonight

 

[mongoose]

Aaron says jordy might play with pad andmeds

 

[C-Lee]

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[longtimefan]

Is Montgomery playing?

Yup.. Not even on injury report

 

[longtimefan]

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

You are on a Packer forum..

 

[PackAttack12]

The Packers don’t stand a chance

Green Bay is a really good team, but let’s not go crazy and outthink the room that they’re so hot, therefore they’re better than the Cowboys.

Let’s look at a few numbers to show just why the Cowboys are the wrong team for the Packers to be facing.

The difference in Team Efficiency, a metric used by footballoutsiders.com, shows that the gap between the Cowboys and the Packers is as large as it is between the Packers and the…

wait for it…

Cincinnati Bengals.

Want more?

During their recent surge, the Packers haven’t faced ONE TEAM in the top half of the NFL in PPG. Meanwhile, I’m not sure if you’re aware of this or not, the Cowboys have the 5th best scoring offense in the NFL

How have the Packers done this year when facing teams with a Top 8 scoring offense? They’re 0-3. They also had losses to Top 15 offenses Washington and Tennessee.

(The folks at Bloggingtheboys.com did a nice job of illustrating this here if you’re a visual learner!!)

Meanwhile, when the Cowboys face a team with a potent offense, like Green Bay, Washington or Pittsburgh, they have won those games, and seemingly score at will at times during those contests.

It’s really not that hard to figure out. Football has never been about who is better this time of year, it’s never been about who the best QB is either. If it was, Marino and Peyton Manning would have 10 titles each.

Football this time of year is about matchups, and the teams that give the Cowboys problems are not the Packers or the Falcons of the world, it’s the Giants and their defense. Strength on strength.

There’s a reason the Cowboys hold a 66% chance of advancing based on the metrics. There’s a reason they are favored in Vegas. They are the better football team.

The quarterback can only do so much, and while Aaron Rodgers is terrific, he’s no better than Marino or Manning in their primes. Last time I checked, they never did it all alone, neither has Rodgers.

Vegas has already told us that the Cowboys are better by virtue of the point spread. Don’t outthink the room.

You're making something that's very simple very complicated.

This criteria almost always works. It's a quarterback's game. Am I going to give the advantage to a Super Bowl MVP, and 2 time league MVP, or a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game?

Sorry. My money's on discount double check.

I get your point about Manning/Marino. But the difference between these two quarterbacks is astounding. If Dak were a 5 year veteran, you'd have me. But until I see how he performs on a huge playoff stage, national television, bright lights, etc., I'm not betting on him and a rookie running back to deliver the goods.

I'm glad that you decided to come with some real statistics this time. Think you learned your lesson after the last post you made with statistics on here. Better be prepared to get fact checked.

 

[Sky King]

...There’s a reason the Cowboys hold a 66% chance of advancing based on the metrics. There’s a reason they are favored in Vegas. They are the better football team...

...Vegas has already told us that the Cowboys are better by virtue of the point spread. Don’t outthink the room.

Obviously, you do not understand "the room" which is how and why the sports books in Las Vegas operate at a profit. So, let somebody who lives in Las Vegas (and who also is close to people who have made a nice living in the industry) try helping you to understand what goes into oddsmakers setting the betting line. I'll try to keep it so simple that even you may be able to understand it.

Sports books exist to make money. As such, they try to attract bets that are split 50/50 dollar-wise between the two teams. Why? Because the their "vig" is usually 10% of the total dollar amount being bet. In other words, they get to keep 10% of the money for themselves regardless of which team wins. Call it their commission. They establish the spreads to get as much money as possible being bet as evenly as possible on both participants. Sports books could win or lose big if they deliberately tried to get bettors to bet in a lopsided manner. Instead, they adjust the spread leading up to the game to influence where the books want the betting money to be placed. They don't "like" teams the way you like teams. But they do like your money. They want you to like your team enough to bet on them.

Let's look at some betting factors that involve both the Cowboys and the Packers. Both teams have many die-hard fans who will bet on their teams purely out of sentiment. It's akin to voting (with money) for their favorite team. The sports books love this because of the vig. But other bettors bet to win and have little sentiment other than love of cash. The more bettors the better. Keeping it split 50/50 is the trick.

The spread can both encourage that more money will be bet in total and also that more money will be bet on one team or the other. Remember the vig. So, when the books increase the spread it may be to get more money bet on the other team. For example, the home team being favored by three points is a given. When the spread is adjusted up or down it is meant to influence the betting. If the bets are balanced the spread may be adjusted to help maintain that balance. If you see the spread shift before Sunday keep that in mind. The spread is influenced by the power rating and also by how the bets are being placed. Betting dollars may outweigh the power ratings.

Ever wonder why the spread sometimes includes a half point when no games ever end up being won or lost by such a margin? If you haven't figured that out yet then you may need to remove the Stetson because it could be restricting the flow of blood to your brain. But in case you have no idea here's one important reason why: Should the scoring differential set by the books and the final score of the game be exactly the same, 3 points for instance, it results in a "push." It's a tie of sorts. That means nobody wins (that placed a bet under that spread). There goes the vig on those bets. The money goes back to the bettors. All of it. That displeases the books. And here's something else that you may not know: You can buy points either way in the spread. I'll leave it to you to figure that one out. Hint: Think vig.

Las Vegas books love no team. It"s strictly business. But please continue clinging to that misconception. By all means visit us and place bets with your heart. Besides building billion dollar+ casinos with your losses it helps to lower my taxes.

Hope to see you out here real soon.

 

[ExpatPacker]

All of them...you guys think dallas will be a cake walk.

Say what? This coming from a Cowboys fan? Just take a look at your own fan sites which are so full of arrogant posts that think that this game is over before it even starts. There's a reason why Packer fans have some confidence in their team. That's not to say that the Packers will win, but they do have a chance, and it's not a small chance either. Of course Dallas is going to be tough to beat, like we know that. But just keep thinking the Packers have no chance....

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers don’t stand a chance

Green Bay is a really good team, but let’s not go crazy and outthink the room that they’re so hot, therefore they’re better than the Cowboys.

Let’s look at a few numbers to show just why the Cowboys are the wrong team for the Packers to be facing.

The difference in Team Efficiency, a metric used by footballoutsiders.com, shows that the gap between the Cowboys and the Packers is as large as it is between the Packers and the…

wait for it…

Cincinnati Bengals.

Want more?

During their recent surge, the Packers haven’t faced ONE TEAM in the top half of the NFL in PPG. Meanwhile, I’m not sure if you’re aware of this or not, the Cowboys have the 5th best scoring offense in the NFL

How have the Packers done this year when facing teams with a Top 8 scoring offense? They’re 0-3. They also had losses to Top 15 offenses Washington and Tennessee.

(The folks at Bloggingtheboys.com did a nice job of illustrating this here if you’re a visual learner!!)

Meanwhile, when the Cowboys face a team with a potent offense, like Green Bay, Washington or Pittsburgh, they have won those games, and seemingly score at will at times during those contests.

It’s really not that hard to figure out. Football has never been about who is better this time of year, it’s never been about who the best QB is either. If it was, Marino and Peyton Manning would have 10 titles each.

Football this time of year is about matchups, and the teams that give the Cowboys problems are not the Packers or the Falcons of the world, it’s the Giants and their defense. Strength on strength.

There’s a reason the Cowboys hold a 66% chance of advancing based on the metrics. There’s a reason they are favored in Vegas. They are the better football team.

The quarterback can only do so much, and while Aaron Rodgers is terrific, he’s no better than Marino or Manning in their primes. Last time I checked, they never did it all alone, neither has Rodgers.

Vegas has already told us that the Cowboys are better by virtue of the point spread. Don’t outthink the room.

There aren't any posters around here arguing the Packers defense is the team's strength and we are well aware of the fact it will be tough to stop the Cowboys offense.

It seems you haven't realized the Packers offense having been extremely hot over the last seven games though facing top six scoring defenses three times scoring 38 points in each of those games.

I'm fine with Dallas being favored entering the game as they have played a great regular season but if you think that game has already been decided you might be in for a huge surprise.

 

[JLW_51]

I am interested in seeing how the Packers defensive front is going to do against the Cowboys OL and Elliott and their run game. I wrote a piece about it, http://lastwordonprofootball.com/2017/01/11/packers-defensive-front-grueling-task-ahead/, I contend if they don't contain Elliott, I don't see them winning this game, you guys agree?

 

[Pkrjones]

I contend if they don't contain Elliott, I don't see them winning this game, you guys agree?

Absolutely, that is the key to a Packer victory. IF Elliott runs rampant (more than 4 ypc) the Cowboys will more than likely have long, sustained drives keeping AR on the sidelines and not lighting up the scoreboard.

Front 7 stop the run consistently and then the Packers have a chance at forcing errors and/or turnovers. I think Capers will have some surprises allowing a few defensive stops, giving AR & the offense a shot at getting a lead... then it'll be a shoot-out.

 

[JLW_51]

Absolutely, that is the key to a Packer victory. IF Elliott runs rampant (more than 4 ypc) the Cowboys will more than likely have long, sustained drives keeping AR on the sidelines and not lighting up the scoreboard.

Front 7 stop the run consistently and then the Packers have a chance at forcing errors and/or turnovers. I think Capers will have some surprises allowing a few defensive stops, giving AR & the offense a shot at getting a lead... then it'll be a shoot-out.

Agree, Capers also might need to move around Matthews, have him attack from not just the outside, but also inside. I have a gut feeling Peppers will have a big day on Sunday.

 

[PackAttack12]

Agree, Capers also might need to move around Matthews, have him attack from not just the outside, but also inside. I have a gut feeling Peppers will have a big day on Sunday.

The diversity of looks thrown at Prescott will be key.

If I'm Capers, I'm mixing it up regularly.

 

[JLW_51]

I was at the game at Lambeau this season when the Cowboys won, I don't remember Capers doing much of that. If he is going to mix it up, he has to make sure it stops the run. Prescott had a good season, but the Packers need to force him to win the game, not the running game.

 

[longtimefan]

The Packers don’t stand a chance

Green Bay is a really good team, but let’s not go crazy and outthink the room that they’re so hot, therefore they’re better than the Cowboys.

Let’s look at a few numbers to show just why the Cowboys are the wrong team for the Packers to be facing.

The difference in Team Efficiency, a metric used by footballoutsiders.com, shows that the gap between the Cowboys and the Packers is as large as it is between the Packers and the…

wait for it…

Cincinnati Bengals.

Want more?

During their recent surge, the Packers haven’t faced ONE TEAM in the top half of the NFL in PPG. Meanwhile, I’m not sure if you’re aware of this or not, the Cowboys have the 5th best scoring offense in the NFL

How have the Packers done this year when facing teams with a Top 8 scoring offense? They’re 0-3. They also had losses to Top 15 offenses Washington and Tennessee.

(The folks at Bloggingtheboys.com did a nice job of illustrating this here if you’re a visual learner!!)

Meanwhile, when the Cowboys face a team with a potent offense, like Green Bay, Washington or Pittsburgh, they have won those games, and seemingly score at will at times during those contests.

It’s really not that hard to figure out. Football has never been about who is better this time of year, it’s never been about who the best QB is either. If it was, Marino and Peyton Manning would have 10 titles each.

Football this time of year is about matchups, and the teams that give the Cowboys problems are not the Packers or the Falcons of the world, it’s the Giants and their defense. Strength on strength.

There’s a reason the Cowboys hold a 66% chance of advancing based on the metrics. There’s a reason they are favored in Vegas. They are the better football team.

The quarterback can only do so much, and while Aaron Rodgers is terrific, he’s no better than Marino or Manning in their primes. Last time I checked, they never did it all alone, neither has Rodgers.

Vegas has already told us that the Cowboys are better by virtue of the point spread. Don’t outthink the room.

Fun stat.

Packers during the season have given up 8 more passing yards per game than the Cowboys..

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I wish Sunday would hurry up and get here now. I don't know what it is about this game, but I have not felt so confident that we're gonna win a playoff game since beating the Bears in that 2010 NFC Championship Game.

 

[yooperpackfan]

I wish Sunday would hurry up and get here now. I don't know what it is about this game, but I have not felt so confident that we're gonna win a playoff game since beating the Bears in that 2010 NFC Championship Game.

I'm ready right now but time is dragging.
I believe the front 7 of the Green Bay Packers defense will have a big game.
Packers win and will be packing to head for Atlanta.

 

[broguy]

Absolutely, that is the key to a Packer victory. IF Elliott runs rampant (more than 4 ypc) the Cowboys will more than likely have long, sustained drives keeping AR on the sidelines and not lighting up the scoreboard.
/QUOTE]

While I agree with your premise here, I would point out that Elliott has been held under 4 ypc twice all season, so I don

The diversity of looks thrown at Prescott will be key.

If I'm Capers, I'm mixing it up regularly.

Good article from Barnwell about how rookie QBs, even some of the best, have really struggled in the playoffs. He also suggests that Dak's game (with the help of the run game) is built to reverse that trend.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rted-super-bowl-game-dak-prescott-change-that

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I'm thinking on offense without Jordy, Cook and GMo are gonna hold the keys to winning.

 

[brandon2348]

This kind of feels like at Atlanta 2010.
'
Also, everyone talking about Zeke. If Dallas gets forced into a lot of cover 2 we got a couple of guys that can hit it and go too.