Wide Receiver Options

[Heyjoe4]

I agree it's completely unrealistic to expect Watson to replace Adams. He was drafted to contribute from the get-go though.



The tight ends improving on the production over past seasons would take pressure off the wide receivers to contribute this season. I'm not sure it will happen either though.

Well the TE group is probably in worse shape than the WR group. DeGuarra will have to take a big step up and Tonyan will need to return no later than mid-season (I think it will be earlier) and find his 2020 form. I don't think there are any TE FAs left worth pursuing and a trade seems unlikely. It's possible Gluten grabs someone during cut downs. Gotta wait and see and we, well at least I, have no patience.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a thought discussion my Packer buddy and I had last night. Since it deals with multiple WRs fits here better than the Lazard thread.

The posed question was "Who between Watkins and Lazard would you prefer plays their way into a contract extension for another year or two or an offseason signing of similar length once this season is done?"

Everyone knows I'm a big Lazard fan, BUT my answer was Sammy. While you may never coach up another WR to be the blocker Lazard is, we saw it in MVS - by the time he entered his third season MVS was a solid blocker as well positioning wise and willingness wise; no he couldn't move defenders like Lazard can at times, but he was there in position and his downfield blocking effort was great. So that aspect which puts Lazard ahead of Sammy cannot be denied, BUT Sammy when healthy illustrates more clear WR1 and WR2 potential that just cannot be denied IMO. I also factor in their ages...Lazard is essentially two years Sammy's junior and that brings Sammy's contract negotiations down + his injury history even if he puts together a solid healthy 2022.

If posed that question who you got?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Here's a thought discussion my Packer buddy and I had last night. Since it deals with multiple WRs fits here better than the Lazard thread.

The posed question was "Who between Watkins and Lazard would you prefer plays their way into a contract extension for another year or two or an offseason signing of similar length once this season is done?"

Everyone knows I'm a big Lazard fan, BUT my answer was Sammy. While you may never coach up another WR to be the blocker Lazard is, we saw it in MVS - by the time he entered his third season MVS was a solid blocker as well positioning wise and willingness wise; no he couldn't move defenders like Lazard can at times, but he was there in position and his downfield blocking effort was great. So that aspect which puts Lazard ahead of Sammy cannot be denied, BUT Sammy when healthy illustrates more clear WR1 and WR2 potential that just cannot be denied IMO. I also factor in their ages...Lazard is essentially two years Sammy's junior and that brings Sammy's contract negotiations down + his injury history even if he puts together a solid healthy 2022.

If posed that question who you got?

Lazard. A career season from Sammy would be like the year when Nick Perry was really good; a tease that you end up overpaying for later.

 

[lambeaulambo]

Doesn't Watkins have a ring? Nick Perry - lol. That simile is out of line..get the interlopour extraordinare in here to argue. I saw someone punked Zartan the other day...lol

 

[tynimiller]

Lazard. A career season from Sammy would be like the year when Nick Perry was really good; a tease that you end up overpaying for later.

A tease? Health is the only holdback from Sammy his entire career. His production when in is very good - he's not like a guy (Perry) that puts together one or two good years out of half dozen full seasons IMO.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here's a thought discussion my Packer buddy and I had last night. Since it deals with multiple WRs fits here better than the Lazard thread.

The posed question was "Who between Watkins and Lazard would you prefer plays their way into a contract extension for another year or two or an offseason signing of similar length once this season is done?"

Everyone knows I'm a big Lazard fan, BUT my answer was Sammy. While you may never coach up another WR to be the blocker Lazard is, we saw it in MVS - by the time he entered his third season MVS was a solid blocker as well positioning wise and willingness wise; no he couldn't move defenders like Lazard can at times, but he was there in position and his downfield blocking effort was great. So that aspect which puts Lazard ahead of Sammy cannot be denied, BUT Sammy when healthy illustrates more clear WR1 and WR2 potential that just cannot be denied IMO. I also factor in their ages...Lazard is essentially two years Sammy's junior and that brings Sammy's contract negotiations down + his injury history even if he puts together a solid healthy 2022.

If posed that question who you got?

I'm with you on Sammy. When he was drafted by Buffalo he put together three very good seasons. His challenge, as you note, is staying healthy. I think he suffers from chronic hamstring problems. That's a difficult injury to overcome.

But I pick Sammy because he's been there. Lazard has had to play in the shadow of Adams, given. I'm just not sure Lazard advances much further from where he is. He's in excellent shape, he's big and reasonably quick, and he can block and catch. That's valuable and I think that's Lazard's ceiling. I hope I'm wrong and with more targets, he improves.

Finally, it's a little scary to think that Watkins may be a #2 or even #3 WR. I'd much rather have someone else step up. But who? Not a rookie, the odds are very long. I think Doubs will surprise with a 600 yard, 5 TD season, but that's still #3 production.

I don't see this getting resolved this year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

A tease? Health is the only holdback from Sammy his entire career. His production when in is very good - he's not like a guy (Perry) that puts together one or two good years out of half dozen full seasons IMO.

Every season he starts really well and then does very little for the bulk of the season. Some of that is injury but not the majority.

 

[tynimiller]

Every season he starts really well and then does very little for the bulk of the season. Some of that is injury but not the majority.

I wanted to disagree without checking but lets look...

2014 active 16 games - 65Recs/982 yards which is 61.38 yards a game rate. 1,026 snaps.
2015 active 13 games - 60Recs/1047 yards or 80.5 yards per game. 715 Snaps
2016 active 8 games - 28Recs/430 yards or 53.75 yards per game. 381 Snaps
2017 active 15 games - 39 Recs/593 yards or 39.5 yards per game. *This was his first year out of Buffalo and the only year with the Rams. 774 Snaps
2018 active 10 games - 40Recs/519 yards or 51.9 yards per game. 459 snaps.
2019 active 14 games - 52Recs/673 yards or 48 yards per game. 740 Snaps
2020 active 10 games - 37Recs/421 yards or 42 yards per game. 527 Snaps
2021 active 13 games - 27 Recs/394 yards or 30.3 yards per game. 458 snaps

When he is healthy and able to be active he has put up WR2 or WR3 type numbers his whole career.

Lazard charts out similar (ignoring 2018 barely in):

2019 active 16 games - 35Recs/477 yards or 29.8 yards per game. 479 snaps
2020 active 10 games - 33Recs/451 yards or 45 yards per game. 470 Snaps
2021 active 15 games - 40Recs/513 yards or 34 yards per game. 716 Snaps

@Sunshinepacker to be fair I'm not necessarily disagreeing at all with picking Lazard over Sammy - I think A LOT of merit holds there. I just push back a little on description cast on Watkins is all, but neither have played really like a WR2 snap wise except Sammy 4 seasons and Lazard once.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I wanted to disagree without checking but lets look...

2014 active 16 games - 65Recs/982 yards which is 61.38 yards a game rate. 1,026 snaps.
2015 active 13 games - 60Recs/1047 yards or 80.5 yards per game. 715 Snaps
2016 active 8 games - 28Recs/430 yards or 53.75 yards per game. 381 Snaps
2017 active 15 games - 39 Recs/593 yards or 39.5 yards per game. *This was his first year out of Buffalo and the only year with the Rams. 774 Snaps
2018 active 10 games - 40Recs/519 yards or 51.9 yards per game. 459 snaps.
2019 active 14 games - 52Recs/673 yards or 48 yards per game. 740 Snaps
2020 active 10 games - 37Recs/421 yards or 42 yards per game. 527 Snaps
2021 active 13 games - 27 Recs/394 yards or 30.3 yards per game. 458 snaps

When he is healthy and able to be active he has put up WR2 or WR3 type numbers his whole career.

Lazard charts out similar (ignoring 2018 barely in):

2019 active 16 games - 35Recs/477 yards or 29.8 yards per game. 479 snaps
2020 active 10 games - 33Recs/451 yards or 45 yards per game. 470 Snaps
2021 active 15 games - 40Recs/513 yards or 34 yards per game. 716 Snaps

Yeah those numbers are pretty consistent with a #2 or #3 WR. That probably means #1 in GB this year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I wanted to disagree without checking but lets look...

2014 active 16 games - 65Recs/982 yards which is 61.38 yards a game rate. 1,026 snaps.
2015 active 13 games - 60Recs/1047 yards or 80.5 yards per game. 715 Snaps
2016 active 8 games - 28Recs/430 yards or 53.75 yards per game. 381 Snaps
2017 active 15 games - 39 Recs/593 yards or 39.5 yards per game. *This was his first year out of Buffalo and the only year with the Rams. 774 Snaps
2018 active 10 games - 40Recs/519 yards or 51.9 yards per game. 459 snaps.
2019 active 14 games - 52Recs/673 yards or 48 yards per game. 740 Snaps
2020 active 10 games - 37Recs/421 yards or 42 yards per game. 527 Snaps
2021 active 13 games - 27 Recs/394 yards or 30.3 yards per game. 458 snaps

When he is healthy and able to be active he has put up WR2 or WR3 type numbers his whole career.

Lazard charts out similar (ignoring 2018 barely in):

2019 active 16 games - 35Recs/477 yards or 29.8 yards per game. 479 snaps
2020 active 10 games - 33Recs/451 yards or 45 yards per game. 470 Snaps
2021 active 15 games - 40Recs/513 yards or 34 yards per game. 716 Snaps

@Sunshinepacker to be fair I'm not necessarily disagreeing at all with picking Lazard over Sammy - I think A LOT of merit holds there. I just push back a little on description cast on Watkins is all, but neither have played really like a WR2 snap wise except Sammy 4 seasons and Lazard once.

Sammy looked like he was going to have a good career but for whatever reason he just fell off after his second year and has never seemed to recover.

The weird thing is that he always seems to be really good through the first 3 weeks of the season and then proceeds to turn into Robert Tonyan.

 

[sschind]

Watkins for sure. I think his upside is much higher. Obviously if he plays his way to a new contract he won't be injured, or at least not half a season type anyway. I guess you could still punish him for past seasons but if he goes say 14 15 games I say he gets the benefit of the doubt. I could see Lazard working his was up to an OK #2 guy but I think Watkins had the talent to be a great #2 even a borderline #1.

A lot of blocking is the willingness to do it. How was Watkins at it in the past.

 

[kevans74]

I wanted to disagree without checking but lets look...

2014 active 16 games - 65Recs/982 yards which is 61.38 yards a game rate. 1,026 snaps.
2015 active 13 games - 60Recs/1047 yards or 80.5 yards per game. 715 Snaps
2016 active 8 games - 28Recs/430 yards or 53.75 yards per game. 381 Snaps
2017 active 15 games - 39 Recs/593 yards or 39.5 yards per game. *This was his first year out of Buffalo and the only year with the Rams. 774 Snaps
2018 active 10 games - 40Recs/519 yards or 51.9 yards per game. 459 snaps.
2019 active 14 games - 52Recs/673 yards or 48 yards per game. 740 Snaps
2020 active 10 games - 37Recs/421 yards or 42 yards per game. 527 Snaps
2021 active 13 games - 27 Recs/394 yards or 30.3 yards per game. 458 snaps

When he is healthy and able to be active he has put up WR2 or WR3 type numbers his whole career.

Lazard charts out similar (ignoring 2018 barely in):

2019 active 16 games - 35Recs/477 yards or 29.8 yards per game. 479 snaps
2020 active 10 games - 33Recs/451 yards or 45 yards per game. 470 Snaps
2021 active 15 games - 40Recs/513 yards or 34 yards per game. 716 Snaps

@Sunshinepacker to be fair I'm not necessarily disagreeing at all with picking Lazard over Sammy - I think A LOT of merit holds there. I just push back a little on description cast on Watkins is all, but neither have played really like a WR2 snap wise except Sammy 4 seasons and Lazard once.

Thanks for doing this

Sammy's issue isn't talent or ability, the stats further prove this. It's just staying healthy

Lazard, while not always healthy, I don't view as the same league talent or ability wise

They are only 2 years apart in age so it's not apples and Oranges

Further, going off those numbers 60/800/8 is not unreasonable to expect from Sammy this year if he can stay healthy

 

[kevans74]

Sammy looked like he was going to have a good career but for whatever reason he just fell off after his second year and has never seemed to recover.

The weird thing is that he always seems to be really good through the first 3 weeks of the season and then proceeds to turn into Robert Tonyan.

It's always just been injuries. This is a guy who was selected NUMBER 4 OVERALL.

Number 4 OVERALL...

He has had a decent career, so he hasn't exactly been a "bust" or anything. It's always just injury issues with him, some guys just can't stay healthy.

Although different players, its like Cobb. Cobb has had a decent career too but is often injured. Would he have had more 1000 yard seasons, if he stayed healthy? Probably. But Cobb hasn't had a "bad" career, just not as good had he had stayed healthy

 

[tynimiller]

Sammy looked like he was going to have a good career but for whatever reason he just fell off after his second year and has never seemed to recover.

The weird thing is that he always seems to be really good through the first 3 weeks of the season and then proceeds to turn into Robert Tonyan.

I wanted to see, as I don't remember these blazing starts except his second year.

2014 - he put up 3, 8 and 2 receptions first three games with 31, 117, 19 yards.
2015 - He put up 0, 6, 1 receptions with 0, 60, 39 yards.
2016 - 4, 2, (IR stint), 3 receptions with 43, 20, (IR stint), 80 yards
2017 - 5,2,6 receptions with 58,30,106 yards
2018 - 3,6,5 receptions with 21,100,55 yards
2019 - 9,6,5 receptions with 198,49,64 yards
2020 - 7,1,7 receptions with 82,11,62 yards
2021 - 4,4,4 receptions with 96,44,68 yards


So yes and no. I'd personally categorize only 2019 as coming out of the gate hot, 2014/2017/2018 were good but not great and rest quite average if judging off expectations of WR2 - but that isn't necessarily what role he has been similar to Lazard.

Lazard for reference since that's the discussion:

2019 - (no Offensive snaps till week 4, week 5 he took 1 then started seeing time) 4,3,5 receptions with 65,42,42 yards
2020 - 4,3,6 receptions with 63,45,146 yards
2021 - 2, (missed game), 1,2 with 16,(inj), 42,33 yards

 

[Heyjoe4]

Thanks for doing this

Sammy's issue isn't talent or ability, the stats further prove this. It's just staying healthy

Lazard, while not always healthy, I don't view as the same league talent or ability wise

They are only 2 years apart in age so it's not apples and Oranges

Further, going off those numbers 60/800/8 is not unreasonable to expect from Sammy this year if he can stay healthy

Yeah I'd take that from Watkins this year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well the TE group is probably in worse shape than the WR group. DeGuarra will have to take a big step up and Tonyan will need to return no later than mid-season (I think it will be earlier) and find his 2020 form. I don't think there are any TE FAs left worth pursuing and a trade seems unlikely. It's possible Gluten grabs someone during cut downs. Gotta wait and see and we, well at least I, have no patience.

Are we worse off than 2021 at TE? My answer is no.

Would I have liked to get one in the pipeline as the successor to Lewis or maybe a high ceiling Flex TE? Absolutely. Yet the chances of high Rookie TE production is minimal also. We’re talking about a push to win in 2022 and the best way for that is a TE with at least 2-3 years experience in system and we’ve got several options there

It’s totally conceivable that the Packers rely more on veteran TE this season. I could see a slight target increase and 850-950 yards as very reasonable. What will be even more important is finishing in the Endzone.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Are we worse off than 2021 at TE? My answer is no.

Would I have liked to get one in the pipeline as the successor to Lewis or maybe a high ceiling Flex TE? Absolutely. Yet the chances of high Rookie TE production is minimal also. We’re talking about a push to win in 2022 and the best way for that is a TE with at least 2-3 years experience in system and we’ve got 4 of them.

It’s totally conceivable that the Packers rely more on veteran TE this season. I could see a slight target increase and 850-950 yards as very reasonable. What will be even more important is finishing in the Endzone.

Yeah that's a fair point. Tonyan will play in the last half of the season this year (I expect him back earlier, like week 4 or 5) and I expect DeGuarra will take steps forward. So it's reasonable to expect the same production as 2021, or more.

Now if Tonyan can play better than his breakout year in 2021, it could be a really good season for the TEs.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah that's a fair point. Tonyan will play in the last half of the season this year (I expect him back earlier, like week 4 or 5) and I expect DeGuarra will take steps forward. So it's reasonable to expect the same production as 2021, or more.

Now if Tonyan can play better than his breakout year in 2021, it could be a really good season for the TEs.

Sure, at least an upward tick.

I also believe a bubble will rise. Meaning at least 1 from our WR group will separate themselves from the Pack. I think that unknown is Sammy Watkins. If he plays in ~>=13-14 games he’ll put up 1,000

His production has always been equivalent to his availability. Yet I believe an old vet will take care of an old vet, I can sense that in Rodgers voice. This is just merely a hunch, but Aaron is much more likely to trust a 9 year veteran than a Rookie. Sammy is better than Lazard and with all due respect, Lazard has never came anywhere close to a pair of 1,000 seasons. A healthy Watkins puts up 1,000 and that’s not close to his ceiling in a WR room that has no designated #1 or #2.

This is not only a contract year from Watkins, but a contract+career year. His career is over if he flails in GB. He’s got most to lose. Think about it, if he somehow put together a 1,000 season? He’d get a substantial payout next season, possibly here in GB. Sammy iterated how lucky this scenario is for him and how blessed a position he’s put himself. It’s possible it would make Lazard expendable I’m ‘23 and I think Lazard knows it too and wants security. Lazard is really nothing more than a proven #3 WR that blocks well (not that in itself that’s bad, but he’s standing on sand if he doesn’t improve this season)He’s definitely not a premier Wideout at all at this point.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sure, at least an upward tick.

I also believe a bubble will rise. Meaning at least 1 from our WR group will separate themselves from the Pack. I think that unknown is Sammy Watkins. If he plays in ~14 games he’ll put up 1,000

Agree on Watkins. He needs to stay healthy, but the change of environment will be good for him. And he may carry some other guys with him.

 

[tynimiller]

Sure, at least an upward tick.

I also believe a bubble will rise. Meaning at least 1 from our WR group will separate themselves from the Pack. I think that unknown is Sammy Watkins. If he plays in ~>=14 games he’ll put up 1,000

His production has always been equivalent to his availability. Yet I believe an old vet will take care of an old vet, I can sense that in Rodgers voice. This is just merely a hunch, but Aaron is much more likely to trust a 9 year veteran than a Rookie. Sammy is better than Lazard and Lazard has never came close to a pair of 1,000 seasons. A healthy Watkins puts up 1,000

Agreed we will end up with a WR that hits 1,000 yards unless we simply get injury bug that hits. My "bets" in order to hit that mark are Watkins, Lazard, Cobb, Watson...

 

[gopkrs]

It's always just been injuries. This is a guy who was selected NUMBER 4 OVERALL.

Number 4 OVERALL...

He has had a decent career, so he hasn't exactly been a "bust" or anything. It's always just injury issues with him, some guys just can't stay healthy.

Although different players, its like Cobb. Cobb has had a decent career too but is often injured. Would he have had more 1000 yard seasons, if he stayed healthy? Probably. But Cobb hasn't had a "bad" career, just not as good had he had stayed healthy

I'm no Sammy expert nor KC but I got the feeling there were just too many really good targets on KC or Sammy could have had very good stats. Looking forward to the season

 

[kevans74]

I'm no Sammy expert nor KC but I got the feeling there were just too many really good targets on KC or Sammy could have had very good stats. Looking forward to the season

Yeah you're right.

We don't really have a Hill or Kelce type, although Watson could emerge, who will take targets away from Sammy

He has the talent/ability, he just has to stay healthy. It has been encouraging to see Sammy admit to this though in interviews lol. It's the NFL, part of his job is to find a way to stay healthy. And, as he put it, he can ball if/when he's healthy. And no one is denying that

 

[Heyjoe4]

Agreed we will end up with a WR that hits 1,000 yards unless we simply get injury bug that hits. My "bets" in order to hit that mark are Watkins, Lazard, Cobb, Watson...

I work backwards and I believe Rodgers will throw for a little over 4,000 yards this year. To me, that means someone is gonna get 1,000 yards and it's most likely gone be Watkins. My ranking is a little different than yours, but not much - Watkins, Lazard, Watson, Doubs. Cobb gets injured too easily and I don't remember the last time he had a 1,000 yard season. His real value will be as a mentor/coach to the new guys.

And anticipating some feedback, yeah Watkins gets injured a lot too. Not this year.

 

[tynimiller]

I work backwards and I believe Rodgers will throw for a little over 4,000 yards this year. To me, that means someone is gonna get 1,000 yards and it's most likely gone be Watkins. My ranking is a little different than yours, but not much - Watkins, Lazard, Watson, Doubs. Cobb gets injured too easily and I don't remember the last time he had a 1,000 yard season. His real value will be as a mentor/coach to the new guys.

And anticipating some feedback, yeah Watkins gets injured a lot too. Not this year.

You know my love for Doubs so I love seeing him crack your list. He'd be my darkhorse just off my list. Honestly I should have flipped cobb and Watson. Doubs to me has a very similar chance to Cobb at hitting it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah you're right.

We don't really have a Hill or Kelce type, although Watson could emerge, who will take targets away from Sammy

He has the talent/ability, he just has to stay healthy. It has been encouraging to see Sammy admit to this though in interviews lol. It's the NFL, part of his job is to find a way to stay healthy. And, as he put it, he can ball if/when he's healthy. And no one is denying that

And something tells me Gluten isn't done with the WR group yet. I think Julio Jones is available, and if he could get past his ego, GB could afford him. And who knows who might get cut for cap reasons.