Which Team(s) Are Most Likely To Regress From Winning Records Last Year To Losing Ones This Year?

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Out of all those teams the Giants and Falcons are the least likely to regress, and if anything they both could easily be improved. The Falcons just have a big "?" with Steve Sarkisian coming into a new environment and there's a good chance there might be growing pains with changes he brings just as Norv Turner brought to Minny and caused AP problems. They've had their defensive problems too, and coming off a superbowl loss like the one they had, we'll have to see if it puts them in a tailspin. The Giants formed maybe one of the best defensive backfield's seen in quite some time last year, but will Odell Beckham Jr. continue to drag that team down with drama and become a liability again? And will Eli's offense continue to struggle with output is another "?" On paper both these teams should be contenders, but they've come out to be the league's biggest disappointers over the years as well.

The most likely to regress in my opinion are the Lions and the Bucs. Even though Stafford may have his throwing hand in better shape now, the bad losing streak the Lions found themselves on the end of could be a problem. The Bucs as well, even though to their credit they made a winning season happen still have a lot of work to do to make me a believer. To me neither of these teams are going to be getting the kind of luck they had go their way this last year, and the last time the Lions posted back-to-back winning seasons was 1994 and 1995, and the bucs it was 2007 and 2008.

Also not really sold on the Titans yet, but they certainly were way ahead of expectations last year. As for the fins and the Raiders, well things look good there but Carr and Tannehill are going to have to deliver big on their new contracts.

 

[gopkrs]

imho the only team that may regress is hotlanta. All the others seem to me to be on the rise.

 

[Dantés]

The Lions are the easiest answer. They trailed in the 4th quarter in 15/16 games. The only other team to do that was the Cleveland Browns. Statistically, it's a major anamoly to trail that often but manage to win that many games. And frankly, their roster just isn't that good.

I can also see the Giants slide. I believe Eli is in full decline, and that offensive line is going to allow edge rushers to tee off on him.

The Falcons are probably the 2nd easiest to peg for regression, but that regression probably won't take them below .500. Offenses that good usually step back by about a touchdown per game the following season. And in this case, the guy that made it all go is gone. It's weird-- we've seen Ryan and Jones & Co put up good, not great numbers for years. Then they explode under Shanahan and the assumption is that that's the new norm.

 

[C-Lee]

I personally think the Bucs could be nice next year, OP. That offense has some weapons.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

The Lions are the easiest answer. They trailed in the 4th quarter in 15/16 games. The only other team to do that was the Cleveland Browns. Statistically, it's a major anamoly to trail that often but manage to win that many games. And frankly, their roster just isn't that good.

I can also see the Giants slide. I believe Eli is in full decline, and that offensive line is going to allow edge rushers to tee off on him.

The Falcons are probably the 2nd easiest to peg for regression, but that regression probably won't take them below .500. Offenses that good usually step back by about a touchdown per game the following season. And in this case, the guy that made it all go is gone. It's weird-- we've seen Ryan and Jones & Co put up good, not great numbers for years. Then they explode under Shanahan and the assumption is that that's the new norm.

They also upgraded the offense with a top 3 center and some guys other than Jones to throw the ball to. And the defense made just enough plays to go from horrific to somewhat tolerable, and have their arrow pointed up.

 

[Dantés]

They also upgraded the offense with a top 3 center and some guys other than Jones to throw the ball to. And the defense made just enough plays to go from horrific to somewhat tolerable, and have their arrow pointed up.

I'm not saying that their personnel made zero gains, but Shanahan was far and away the biggest piece of that puzzle. We have seen Ryan with great (better) pieces before (e.g. Jones, White, and Gonzalez). It didn't look like that.

 

[Guacamole]

I'm thinkin Denver is going to be a team that ends up with a losing record. Who's their QB? They play the NCF East and AFC East. 7-9

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In my opinion Miami and Washington are most likely to end up below .500 in 2017 after finishing last season with a winning record.

 

[Zartan]

No option for the Cowboys? After coming off last season I think they will regress slightly I really dont think Dak will have the same performance again this season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No option for the Cowboys? After coming off last season I think they will regress slightly I really dont think Dak will have the same performance again this season.

I fully expect the Cowboys to finish with a winning record though.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

It seems e it happens every year, doesn't it? The season before last the Pants and the Redskins were two playoff teams that looked to be "on the rise", but last year......not so much.

I'm skeptical about Detroit.......They seem to rely on 4th quarter comebacks a little too much and always seem come up a bit short when the stakes get higher. The Cowboys had a magical season last year (at least, until A-Rod "went to Jared") but now they've lost 40% of their starting O-line and still have questions on defense. In New York, Eli has seen better days. The Eagles and the Bucs appear to have the arrow pointing in the right direction, and possibly Tennessee and Miami also. At least one of those teams will disappoint, and at least one.....won't.

But I'm just guessing like everyone else. That's the fun of football in July - Nobody's wrong yet.

 

[Mondio]

No option for the Cowboys? After coming off last season I think they will regress slightly I really dont think Dak will have the same performance again this season.

They were a choice of mine, but not a choice on the poll. Losing offensive line pieces can hurt, but they can be accounted for too. I think another factor is the offseason and defensive coordinators seeing what the young QB was doing. Granted having a great running game can really help out, but tendencies and things get figured out in the offseason. How many times has a QB come in did well, then did not much every year after?

We'll see if the young QB gets figured out, or if he can adapt. It's a lot easier to look good when your running back can run for 6 yards before a defender even lays a hand on him, we'll see if that remains the case again next year. Losing lineman won't help, but it might not hurt tremendously either as we've seen ourselves. But teams have been spending the entire offseason figuring out ways to stop their rushing attack and put more pressure on Dak to make plays. I think he's going to have a growing season

and they didn't have to win without their top guys all year. pretty much. They had some big guys IR'd, we'll see what they have to offer like Collins and Jaylon Smith. But the QB, the RB, the pass catchers and oline were pretty much intact the entire season. Didn't have to see them try and replace any of those guys for any amount of time really last year either.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

They were a choice of mine, but not a choice on the poll. Losing offensive line pieces can hurt, but they can be accounted for too. I think another factor is the offseason and defensive coordinators seeing what the young QB was doing. Granted having a great running game can really help out, but tendencies and things get figured out in the offseason. How many times has a QB come in did well, then did not much every year after?

We'll see if the young QB gets figured out, or if he can adapt. It's a lot easier to look good when your running back can run for 6 yards before a defender even lays a hand on him, we'll see if that remains the case again next year. Losing lineman won't help, but it might not hurt tremendously either as we've seen ourselves. But teams have been spending the entire offseason figuring out ways to stop their rushing attack and put more pressure on Dak to make plays. I think he's going to have a growing season

and they didn't have to win without their top guys all year. pretty much. They had some big guys IR'd, we'll see what they have to offer like Collins and Jaylon Smith. But the QB, the RB, the pass catchers and oline were pretty much intact the entire season. Didn't have to see them try and replace any of those guys for any amount of time really last year either.

Interestingly the Cowboys had a slightly higher number of injuries than the Packers last season according to Football Outsiders adjusted games lost metric.

Of course that doesn't prevent you to continue to use injuries as an excuse for the Packers coming up short in 2016.

 

[elcid]

Lions, Redskins and Bronco's for me. Unfortunately I can only pick one.

 

[Mondio]

why did I even click? when the statement " But the QB, the RB, the pass catchers and oline were pretty much intact the entire season. Didn't have to see them try and replace any of those guys for any amount of time really last year either." is true, one must find an angle so he can be "right". I don't care about your metric. and it won't prevent me from using it. When I see the cowboys replace 1 position in 1 game with 5 different players and see a constant rotation of players week after week because players are going down and playing injured the next week and their offense doesn't miss a beat I'll pay attention.

Until then, who you lose, when you lose them and their relative health while playing all matter more than your metric. But it won't stop you from using your metric when it matters most to you. Back to the pile

 

[rodell330]

I'm thinkin Denver is going to be a team that ends up with a losing record. Who's their QB? They play the NCF East and AFC East. 7-9

Took the words right out of my mouth. They will have a top 10 defense...but lose a lot of low scoring games. They will finish tied for last in the AFC West with the Chargers.

 

[gbgary]

a team not on the list is dal. they'll regress record wise but still have a winning record. they have a tougher schedule, all the other teams in the east are better, and their secondary is all new.

 

[C-Lee]

On the opposite side of things, I can see Carolina bouncing back nicely this year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

why did I even click? when the statement " But the QB, the RB, the pass catchers and oline were pretty much intact the entire season. Didn't have to see them try and replace any of those guys for any amount of time really last year either." is true, one must find an angle so he can be "right". I don't care about your metric. and it won't prevent me from using it. When I see the cowboys replace 1 position in 1 game with 5 different players and see a constant rotation of players week after week because players are going down and playing injured the next week and their offense doesn't miss a beat I'll pay attention.

Until then, who you lose, when you lose them and their relative health while playing all matter more than your metric. But it won't stop you from using your metric when it matters most to you. Back to the pile

Of course you don't care about an objective view about injuries in 2016 as that would completely steal the thunder out of your argument and you might have to admit the Packers didn't have the talent necessary to win the Super Bowl last season.

I'm well aware you're not capable of doing that though, resulting in you looking like a sore loser.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

In my opinion Miami and Washington are most likely to end up below .500 in 2017 after finishing last season with a winning record.

Oh, I almost forgot about Washington, but then again they were kinda an afterthought as it is. Problem for them is they may have blown the bank on Cousins.

I still think the Lions and Bucs are headed for the biggest calamity though.

 

[Mondio]

On the opposite side of things, I can see Carolina bouncing back nicely this year.

unless their QB matures in a hurry, they'll always be what they are. If he doesn't, I can see them finishing the same again with a fired coach.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Took the words right out of my mouth. They will have a top 10 defense...but lose a lot of low scoring games. They will finish tied for last in the AFC West with the Chargers.

I guess my bad in that was that they already declined last year. I know, winning record and all but losing the division to KC and Oakland still wasn't supposed to happen according to the experts, so ... I guess I didn't consider them a surprise team in the way Miami, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Detroit were.

But those last three got to their winning records on luck alone and they won't do so this year.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

unless their QB matures in a hurry, they'll always be what they are. If he doesn't, I can see them finishing the same again with a fired coach.

I suspect with the additions of Samuel and McAffrey, the coaches had it in mind that they want him to stop the backyard football tactics and play more conventionally, knowing he got knocked around bad last year. If he does, it'll be an interesting race between them and the Falcons. I certainly think Carolina does have more going for them than the Saints who just can't fix that D, and even the Bucs who won a lot of games on the ease of schedule they had at the midpoint on. But yeah, Cam cant afford to get abused like that again or his days are numbered.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I'm not saying that their personnel made zero gains, but Shanahan was far and away the biggest piece of that puzzle. We have seen Ryan with great (better) pieces before (e.g. Jones, White, and Gonzalez). It didn't look like that.

The crazy thing is the Redskins fans hated KS when he was their OC, and even in 2015 if you were to go to the Falcons forums, their fans were ready to crucify him too. Some might even argue he was partly to blame for losing the Superbowl.

Now I'm not going to discredit him, he had by far and away the best season as an OC last year, but just one in my books doesn't mean he's quite up in the grandstands yet IMO.

But I will say this that his stock as an OC (regardless of his HC tenure) could well go up depending on what Sark does. If Ryan and co match or continue a high-flying performance, maybe not with duplicate numbers but still good enough to be a reckoning force, Shannahan may lose a little bit of stock due to being seen as having loads of talent around him to work with. If the Falcons O struggles in any way, Shannahan's going to be sought out as an OC by a lot of teams if his HC job doesn't work out.

 

[Dantés]

The crazy thing is the Redskins fans hated KS when he was their OC, and even in 2015 if you were to go to the Falcons forums, their fans were ready to crucify him too. Some might even argue he was partly to blame for losing the Superbowl.

Now I'm not going to discredit him, he had by far and away the best season as an OC last year, but just one in my books doesn't mean he's quite up in the grandstands yet IMO.

But I will say this that his stock as an OC (regardless of his HC tenure) could well go up depending on what Sark does. If Ryan and co match or continue a high-flying performance, maybe not with duplicate numbers but still good enough to be a reckoning force, Shannahan may lose a little bit of stock due to being seen as having loads of talent around him to work with. If the Falcons O struggles in any way, Shannahan's going to be sought out as an OC by a lot of teams if his HC job doesn't work out.

At any given time for any given team, you can find plenty of fans who want everyone fired regardless of the teams' performances.

That is kind of crazy, because the Redskins dropped a touchdown per game after Shanahan left. The Browns' offense had a rare stretch of offensive competence under him. Then this last year the Falcons, with very comparable personnel to what's been there for years, were an all time great offense.

10.2% of Ryan's completions last year went for touchdowns. For his career prior, he was at 6.9%. I think that illustrates the effect that Shanahan, in year two with the offense installed, had on Ryan & Co. That would be the difference between Ryan's 38 touchdowns last year and a year with only 26.

Most teams with such dramatic scoring offenses regress by about 6-7 points, leaving them still as very good offenses but not historic. I would expect that to be the floor of any regression in ATL this year, given that Shanahan is gone and they're coming off the worst SB loss of all time. 10+ points would not shock me.