"It's a Team Game" - Week 12 Addition
Giants Stats:
Offensive 3rd. down performance: 37.2%, 18th. ranked (Packers are at 33.6%, 25th. ranked)
Defensive 3rd. down performance: 39.3%, 16th. ranked (Packers are at 40.0%, 20th. ranked)
Offensive 4th. down performance: 9 of 23, 39.1%, 22nd. ranked (Packers are 1-6, 16.7%, dead last)
Defensive 4th. down performance: 4 of 6, 66.7%, 29th. ranked (Packers are 4 of 8, 50%, 15th. ranked)
[The best to look at 4th. downs is to add a team's offensive success rate to their defensive success rate (2 of 6 in the Giants case) with anything under net 50% being equivalent a turnover, either forfeited FG point opportunities or allowing the opponent another scoring opportunity (forfeiting possession) or forfeited field position. For the Giants, that's 11 for 29, 7 instances under 50%, equivalent to a -7 turnover differential. The Packers are 5 of 14, 4 instances under 50%, or equivalent to a -4 turnover differential. Never heard anybody talk about 4th. downs in this way? Me neither. Think it through.]
Offensive Red Zone TD%: 55.2%, 19th. ranked (Packers are at 67.6%, 3rd. ranked)
Defensive Red Zone TD%: 47.2%, 7th. ranked (Packers are at 48.7%, 10th. ranked)
Turnover Differential: -11, 29th., chiefly on 25 giveaways (Packers are +8, 5th. ranked, the two turnover per game difference between these two teams is huge)
[NOTE: If you have not figured out that what separates the Packers from 0.500 or worse teams has been red zone performance and turnover differential, be so advised.]
20+ yard TDs:
Offense: 10 (Packers have 6)
Defense: 14 (Packers have 9)
Conclusion:
What separates the Giants from 0.500 teams hinges on a couple of plays per game in turnover differential and its sibling, 4th. down performance.
What separates the Packers from 0.500 teams also comes down to a couple plays per game in the red zone or with turnovers.
"Any given week" is not necessarily some abberation. The differences between a "bad" team and a "good" team can be pretty narrow, making or not making a small handful of plays.
The Packers are favored by -6 to -6.5 depending on the book. Assigning the home team a 3 point advantage, the betting line is saying the Packers are a 9.0 - 9.5 point better team.
- The data says the Packers have a +2 advantage in turnovers combined with 4th. down equivalency. That's a lot of points, somewhere in the 7-9 range.
- The Giants have a small edge on 3rd. downs, 5% net, maybe two per game on both sides of the ball combined. Give them a couple of points for that.
- Big play TDs is pretty much a wash; both teams give a few more than they get.
- The Packers superior red zone performance is significant and is the deciding factor.
My probability determination is the Packers will cover the 6.5 point spread. That's a probability, a fairly strong one in my estimation. If the Giants have some unique game where they manage not to turn the ball over or screw up on 4th. down, this game can be quite a bit closer than it would appear.
Of course, we want to see the Packers put together 4 good quarters and dish a beatdown. We have not seen that yet, so the probability is they won't. Again, that's a probability not a certainty.
