Week 11: Packers @ Colts

[rmontro]

I'm going to say we win this game because I refuse to consider losing to the Colts as I live in Indiana and that would be a complete and total disaster.

As a fellow Hoosier, I agree with you. But I've been there and done that before.
Meanwhile, the Packers are quietly holding down the #1 seed spot in the NFC. So it's not like they don't have anything to play for.

 

[gbgary]

No Rivers didn't take them apart. Their running back did. Rivers simply played well enough not to blow it like he usually did, and The Packers didn't force Rivers into playing from behind which would force him into making mistakes.

I'm curious, do you see us as pretenders, because I do not see how you can say that they are the better team. Maybe defensively sure, but look who they beat. Aside from the Titans, who I don't think are better than The Packers, what SB contending team have they really beaten for you to form that kind of conclusion? Do I think their defense is good and can give us fits, certainly, but I don't think it's as good as everyone makes them to be.

pretenders? i think they're a good team. about the same as last season. this year better O than D. last year we were the opposite...better D than O. i think they're overachieving like last year. the team depth has come through again. they're getting healthy again so that should help. good enough to win a SB? no but i hope they can get there and win.
oh...and rivers did pick them apart. short pass after short pass. watch it again on youtube or something if you can fine it.

 

[PackerDNA]

Just a feeling, but I think the Packers make just one more play than the Colts and hang on, 27-24

 

[Poppa San]

I was talking about a realistic scenario

You mean like a blocked punt or sumtin'?

 

[gonzozab]

Yeah, I don't have a good feeling about this game at all. Just a bad matchup and although we don't play them very often, they seem to be a thorn in our side. I looked it up. The last time the Packers beat the Colts on the road, they were the Baltimore Colts, in 1974. Ouch.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Crosby with a surprise on-side kick, perfectly executed, which swings momentum resulting in a Packers victory!

Well he is our HOF kicker and worth every cent of his paycheck.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Took my numbers right off this site: https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings/defense

Interesting, I don't know what their first points column is about but it doesn't reflect a team's ranking in points allowed this season (those numbers are posted in the sixth column).

You mean like a blocked punt or sumtin'?

Yeah, maybe a great return or a turnover forced.

Yeah, I don't have a good feeling about this game at all. Just a bad matchup and although we don't play them very often, they seem to be a thorn in our side. I looked it up. The last time the Packers beat the Colts on the road, they were the Baltimore Colts, in 1974. Ouch.

To be fair, the Packers have only played a total of four games in Indy so far.

 

[Krabs]

Not to take them lightly in any way, but outside of Tennessee, who have they beaten really? I think they'll be decent, but we'll expose them as not being as good as people think they are. But watch should we blow them out, people will downplay it and saying how The Colts aren't that good. If we score early, I don't see Indy keeping up with us. We can't make this a slow game like we did last week.

That is interesting looking at the opponents that both GB and IND have played. Schedule is what it is, but it makes this game an even bigger question mark in my mind. Have either of these teams really found an identity?

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I'm not going to expect much from the run game this weekend. Our pass rush will need to be on point and the defense will need to watch for Rivers check downs to Hines.

 

[Dantés]

Defense:

The Colts at #1 in the league in yards allowed per play at 4.8 (Packers at 5th best on offense at 6.5).

Their scoring defense is 4th best at 19.7 ppg allowed (Packers are 3rd best at 30.8 ppg scored).

They allowed a mere 3.5 yards per carry on average, which is 3rd in the league.

And their net yards per attempt allowed in the passing game is 5.8, which is 5th best.

Pro Football Reference has them 12th in pressure %, but that's without blitzing very much at all (their 19.4% blitz rate is 3rd to last in the league).

They rush four, they cover, and they tackle. Their 35 missed tackles as a team is the lowest number league wide. Packers more than double that number at 72.

The hole in the armor, if you want to call it that, appears to be 3rd down conversions. They allow 40.5% of 3rd downs to be converted, which is basically league average. The Packers' offense is one of the best 3rd down units in the league (overall, but they lack in short yardage).

Offense:

The Colts are 15th in the league in yards gained per play at 5.7 (Packers at 19th on defense at 5.8 allowed).

Their scoring offense is 14th at 26.9 ppg allowed (Packers at 15th on defense at 24.9 allowed).

They gain a paltry 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground 27th overall (Packers allowed 4.6 YPA which is 23rd).

Their net yards gained per attempt is pretty strong at 7.2, 7th in the league (Packers allow 6.7, which is 21st).

Rivers has only been sacked 9 times on the season, for the lowest percentage in the league (2.7%). He gets the ball out extremely quickly.

Because their offense relies on a quick passing game, tackling is paramount. The Packers can't give the terrible effort we've seen at times.

Their 3rd down conversion % is terrible at 37.5, which is 30th in the league. Green Bay's defense is 15th overall at 39.8% allowed.

My Take:

I think this game will come down to 3rd downs. The Colts defense is extremely tough, with very few weaknesses.

The Packers will most likely not break off many big chunk plays. But if they can methodically attack the defense with long drives, converting on 3rd downs, they can score on this unit.

On defense, the Packers will need to play with more intensity, swarming to the ball and getting guys on the ground. The Colts offense is efficient in ways, but not on 3rd downs. Tackle and force their drives to end in a kick (either FG or punt) and they should be in good stead.

I'm going to optimistically predict that the defense shows up with better intensity and predict a final score of 27-23.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

Indy poses a serious challenge. They'll pressure Rodgers better than most teams we've faced have, and they have a better run offense than some think - which we all know is an issue for us.

Aaron has got to get the ball out quickly. If he waits until 1/2 second left on the clock, he is gonna get killed.

 

[gopkrs]

Aaron has got to get the ball out quickly. If he waits until 1/2 second left on the clock, he is gonna get killed.

I think he waits too long also. It is pretty predictable right now.

 

[tynimiller]

Aaron has never been one to get it out quick...just hasn't - and I don't think as a whole that will change. He will get sacked some this week...I just pray zero strip sacks happen or injuries.

 

[jetfixer]

Like someone said before, whats our CB situation going to be? That might be the main factor.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Like someone said before, whats our CB situation going to be? That might be the main factor.

And is Adams going to be healthy enough to go... No Adams, no CB's, no W in my opinion. Colts are good.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Who gave Jacksonville their one win again? Indy is 2-2 1-2 vs teams that currently have a winning record (after the bears loss Monday.)

Correct me if I am wrong, but the Packers are 1-1 against teams that are .500 or better and just barely beat the 1-7 Jaguars (at home), so Colts fans might be saying the same about the Packers.

A win by either team will be a signature win and probably something to hang their hats on, but still 2 somewhat unproven teams with winning records against mostly not so great teams, playing on Sunday.

 

[Krabs]

I think this game will come down to 3rd downs. The Colts defense is extremely tough, with very few weaknesses.

The Packers will most likely not break off many big chunk plays. But if they can methodically attack the defense with long drives, converting on 3rd downs, they can score on this unit.

On defense, the Packers will need to play with more intensity, swarming to the ball and getting guys on the ground. The Colts offense is efficient in ways, but not on 3rd downs. Tackle and force their drives to end in a kick (either FG or punt) and they should be in good stead.

I'm going to optimistically predict that the defense shows up with better intensity and predict a final score of 27-23.

The better intensity could come from King and Alexander if they are back. That would help a lot. Also, Kirksey came back and Martin is healthy. However, the key is those corners. If we are all healthy I give them a good shot at winning this one. Rivers will give some chances at some picks. Gotta be ball hawks in this one and get some turnovers.

 

[Dantés]

The better intensity could come from King and Alexander if they are back. That would help a lot. Also, Kirksey came back and Martin is healthy. However, the key is those corners. If we are all healthy I give them a good shot at winning this one. Rivers will give some chances at some picks. Gotta be ball hawks in this one and get some turnovers.

I hope to see plenty of man coverage and very little blitzing. Rivers gets the ball out too fast for blitzes to get home, and you don't have to worry about turning and running in man coverage, because ol' Phil ain't leaving the pocket.

Above all else, and the game could just come down to this: TACKLE.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

No Rivers didn't take them apart. Their running back did. Rivers simply played well enough not to blow it like he usually did, and The Packers didn't force Rivers into playing from behind which would force him into making mistakes.

I'm curious, do you see us as pretenders, because I do not see how you can say that they are the better team. Maybe defensively sure, but look who they beat. Aside from the Titans, who I don't think are better than The Packers, what SB contending team have they really beaten for you to form that kind of conclusion? Do I think their defense is good and can give us fits, certainly, but I don't think it's as good as everyone makes them to be.

Depends on how you look at it. He did have 294 passing yards, although out of all the games he's played against us so far that was the fewest.

But I agree the biggest reason for the Chargers offense's success was that our own offense was stinking to high heaven and therefore he didn't really need to do much anyway. Problem is I don't think we're going to be running away with the game on Sunday in any manner that's going to put the heat on Indy to play catchup.

 

[Pugger]

And is Adams going to be healthy enough to go... No Adams, no CB's, no W in my opinion. Colts are good.

I thought I saw a report where both Jaire and King are practicing.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The better intensity could come from King and Alexander if they are back. That would help a lot. Also, Kirksey came back and Martin is healthy. However, the key is those corners. If we are all healthy I give them a good shot at winning this one. Rivers will give some chances at some picks. Gotta be ball hawks in this one and get some turnovers.

Maybe due to covid, I have been watching other teams more this year. Some of these teams just have beasts in the front 7 of their defenses. The Packers really lack players in their front 7 IMO. While quality corners and safeties are nice to have, give me a good front 7 and I think they make the secondary just that much better. I suppose the reverse can be true, but you can only cover guys so long.

Monday night was a good example, the Bears defense was playing pretty well and then Akiem Hicks left the game with an injury and all of a sudden the Vikings offense started having more success.

The Packers have Clark and the Smith Brothers, otherwise their front 7 is pedestrian. That really has to be something Gute addresses this offseason.

 

[Do7]

I thought I saw a report where both Jaire and King are practicing.

Yup they were both practicing if I'm not mistaken, so was Lazard. Davante on the other hand did not.

 

[GleefulGary]

I hope to see plenty of man coverage and very little blitzing. Rivers gets the ball out too fast for blitzes to get home, and you don't have to worry about turning and running in man coverage, because ol' Phil ain't leaving the pocket.

Above all else, and the game could just come down to this: TACKLE.

This means Nyheim Hines is gonna feast.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Yup they were both practicing if I'm not mistaken, so was Lazard. Davante on the other hand did not.

I was actually just thinking about this and thinking well ... if Adams was out, we can finally test the old debate out on whether or not the offense is better or not without him. I know some posters were talking about this and about Rodgers spreading the ball out without him.

Thus far I'd stick with the opinion that most the games he's missed thus far have been against bad defenses and hence the offense hasn't had to miss any beats per se. We got a good defense to face now, so we'll see how the spread the ball theory works out in this one.

 

[swhitset]

Maybe due to covid, I have been watching other teams more this year. Some of these teams just have beasts in the front 7 of their defenses. The Packers really lack players in their front 7 IMO. While quality corners and safeties are nice to have, give me a good front 7 and I think they make the secondary just that much better. I suppose the reverse can be true, but you can only cover guys so long.

Monday night was a good example, the Bears defense was playing pretty well and then Akiem Hicks left the game with an injury and all of a sudden the Vikings offense started having more success.

The Packers have Clark and the Smith Brothers, otherwise their front 7 is pedestrian. That really has to be something Gute addresses this offseason.

I agree... but be careful I think you just opened the door for Slacker.