Week 11: Packers @ Colts

[Dantés]

This means Nyheim Hines is gonna feast.

Both him and Taylor could hurt the Packers in the YAC department.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Like someone said before, whats our CB situation going to be? That might be the main factor.

Both Alexander and King have been full participants in both practices so far this week.

 

[El Guapo]

I'm not usually a rah-rah guy, I don't see this game being as close as most. I think that the Packers offense is going to get back in gear and the defense will have the advantage of playing with a lead. Comfortable win for Green Bay is my bet.

 

[JKramer64]

Alexander, King and Devante are off the injury report. Lazard is questionable.

 

[XPack]

https://forums.colts.com/topic/68760-packers-colts-predictions/

 

[Dantés]

Here are the quarterbacks that the Colts have faced this season, their rating against the Colts, and their rating on the season as a whole.

1. Gardner Minshew, 142.3 Vs IND, 94.4 overall
2. Kirk Cousins, 15.9 @ IND (LOL), 98.1 overall
3. Sam Darnold, 47.0 @ IND, 65.9 overall
4. Nick Foles, 76.4 Vs IND, 81.0 overall
5. Baker Mayfield, 72.7 Vs IND, 90.0 overall
6. Joe Burrow, 78.3 @ IND, 89.8 overall
7. Matthew Stafford, 96.9 Vs IND, 96.2 overall
8. Lamar Jackson, 97.5 @ IND, 95.6 overall
9. Ryan Tannehill, 83.4 Vs IND, 106.9 overall

I did not realize what a poor slate of opposing QB's Indy had faced until I looked at some of the comments in that thread that @XPack linked to. Rodgers is at 116.4 so far this season, which is head and shoulders better than anything they've faced. If that number held up, it would be the second best mark of his HOF career, coming in after only the 2011 campaign.

So while it looks like Indy usually holds QB's below their average level of performance, it will be intriguing to see how much more difficult Rodgers can make their jobs.

Lastly, here are their opponents' scoring outputs versus them and then on average.

1. Jaguars: 27, 22.1
2. Vikings: 11, 26.2
3. Jets: 7, 13.4
4. Bears: 11, 19.1
5. Browns: 32, 24.0
6. Bengals: 27, 22.7
7. Lions: 21, 25.2
8. Ravens: 24, 27.1
9. Titans: 17, 27.7

So with a couple exceptions, they generally hold opponents below their normal scoring output by 3-10 points. If the Packers came in 5 points below average, that would be about 26 points. And then it would be up to the defense to hold them below that number.

 

[PikeBadger]

https://forums.colts.com/topic/68760-packers-colts-predictions/

I just had the same thought a while ago. Their fans are much more upbeat and confident than our forum is imo. That’s a pretty excited fan base. They do have a lot of respect for Rodgers though. I was looking around at Coltsfreeks.com

 

[hasamikun]

It really was interesting to take a look at how Colts fans view this matchup. They seem to be alot more optimistic about this.

1. The Packers have the both matchup when we look at passing. They arent scary offensively there and the Packer get their best suit on the DBs tomorrow. And defensively they havent faced an offense as good as ours. MVS is on a hot streak, Lizard will get some limited snaps and Adams wont play another bad game after last week. And they cant cover him anyways.

2. The exact opposite is happening looking at rushing. They have one of the best rushing D in the league and Packers cant stop the run. Packers need to have a lead and therefore force them throw.I dont like this vs Rivers, but it will be neccesary. LaFleur will need to have one of his better playcalling games against the Colts, thats for sure.

3. Packers are finally somewhat close to healthy. Except Ervin, they have all their major players ready for the game which will be glorious, especiall on offense. Finally having Jones, Adams, Rodgers, MVS and possibly Lizard playing can be the key. Meanwhile the Colts lost their best pass rusher to the Covid list. But they are a healthy team as well.

I think this will be a close matchup, if Packers dont show up at the running game, defensively and offensively. I take the best QB-WR combo in the league when playing in a dome. But it will be one hell of a fight and the team hopefully brings the heat for this.

A win vs the Colts probably sets the Packers up for another 13-3 season. I dont see them winning vs the Titans but the rest is extremely doable.

 

[Pugger]

I think the Colts are better than the Titans. Plus we get TN at home on the 27th.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I did not realize what a poor slate of opposing QB's Indy had faced until I looked at some of the comments in that thread that @XPack linked to. Rodgers is at 116.4 so far this season, which is head and shoulders better than anything they've faced.

Aside of Darnold the Colts have faced mostly average quarterbacks. While Rodgers is clearly the best one they will have played against they have looked pretty well against better receiving corps than the Packers currently field.

It will be interesting to see how the Packers offense fares against their defense.

A win vs the Colts probably sets the Packers up for another 13-3 season. I dont see them winning vs the Titans but the rest is extremely doable.

While it's definitely possible the Packers lose vs. the Titans I feel comfortable about their chances of winning that game.

 

[GB psyco]

I dont expect a win.

Me neither, until we get a defense we will get bounced out of the playoffs for the rest of AR's career

 

[Dantés]

Aside of Darnold the Colts have faced mostly average quarterbacks. While Rodgers is clearly the best one they will have played against they have looked pretty well against better receiving corps than the Packers currently field.

Minshew— 21st
Cousins— 16th
Darnold— 33rd
Foles— 27th
Mayfield— 24th
Burrow— 25th
Stafford— 17th
Jackson— 18th
Tannehill— 7th

The level of QB they’ve faced recently has been better, but five of their nine opponents have been 21st or later (i.e. not average). Even by the eye test, I think most people realize that guys like Minshew, Foles, and Mayfield are below average players, in addition to Darnold. It’s been one of the easier slates faced league wide.

The average of these rankings is actually 21st.

The average of the Packers’ opponents is 15th, and they haven’t exactly faced a murderers row. Six of their opponents have been top half however, compared to the Colts’ two.

Lastly, a QB rating reflects the overall success of the passing attack, which “bakes in” the rest of the personnel. The fact is that Rodgers has the best rating in the league with the pass catchers he’s had to work with.

So while they’ve faced better receiving corps, they have not come close to face a passing offense as good as Green Bay’s.

This does not mean that the Packers will find success. It means that Indy is relatively untested. That the Packers haven’t been tested with strong defenses gets pointed out all the time. So naturally we should be able to recognize the simple reality of the inverse.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I think the Colts are better than the Titans. Plus we get TN at home on the 27th.

Hopefully, but we'd better hope we're not dealing with hostile winds in that one favoring a running game over a passing one

 

[PackerDNA]

I think the Colts are better than the Titans. Plus we get TN at home on the 27th.

Unfortunately, home field hasn't been a big advantage for us this season

 

[PackerDNA]

Just saw a couple of articles. one, dated 10 hours ago, said Kevin King was cleared to play. Then saw another, dated a few minutes ago, that said he is questionable because of an Achilles injury.
Also, Scott is questionable due to a personal matter.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Just saw a couple of articles. one, dated 10 hours ago, said Kevin King was cleared to play. Then saw another, dated a few minutes ago, that said he is questionable because of an Achilles injury.
Also, Scott is questionable due to a personal matter.

The Packers added King and Scott to the injury report today.

Scott didn't make the trip to Indianapolis and the team signed punter Drew Kaser because of it.

 

[PackerDNA]

King can't seem to go 10 steps without injuring something. It's just not going to happen for this guy.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Lot of talking about who the Colts have played, but we got embarrassed in Tampa, lost to a Vikings team we had no business losing to, and almost let the 1-7 Jaguars have the statement win of their season in a home game

Bottom line, this is NFL; the margin between the Super Bowl winner and the team with the 1st Overall Pick in the Draft is closer than I think many of you would like to admit.

Colts defense is good....ours not so much.

MVS will come back to Earth and disappear again. Hopefully Lazard is ready for big time football again, otherwise Jones and Williams won't find much running room otherwise. Tonyan and Jace gonna have to step up and not just make one catch a game. Rodgers to Adams, who'll draw double coverage and still produce....will not be enough to win this game.

With that OL, Rivers will put on a clinic and the combination of Taylor, Hines, and Mack send Pettine's termination letter to the printer.

Colts dress down Packers 35-17.

 

[gopkrs]

Tonyan and Jace gonna have to step up and not just make one catch a game.

Usually when they have one catch. They were only thrown to one time. I think that is the playcalling.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

But we've seen them release for passes several times a game, we don't doubt Rodgers' trust in either of them.....so that leaves us with what? They're not getting open.

 

[gopkrs]

Honestly, I'm not sure. I believe they are not targeted enough. LaFleur or ARod, I don't know. Because I just cannot believe they don't get open enough to have the ball thrown their way more.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Well it's MLF's heavy scheme that incorporates TEs more than MM did in the past, and it's not like we have 10 TEs on the roster like the Bears do. I have noticed that Lewis seems to make plays when he's in, but Tonyan and to a greater extent Jace, seem almost invisible in the offense.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Scott didn't make the trip to Indianapolis and the team signed punter Drew Kaser because of it.

I thought there was something like a 48 hour waiting period due to COVID testing before a new player can join a team?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Minshew— 21st
Cousins— 16th
Darnold— 33rd
Foles— 27th
Mayfield— 24th
Burrow— 25th
Stafford— 17th
Jackson— 18th
Tannehill— 7th

The level of QB they’ve faced recently has been better, but five of their nine opponents have been 21st or later (i.e. not average). Even by the eye test, I think most people realize that guys like Minshew, Foles, and Mayfield are below average players, in addition to Darnold. It’s been one of the easier slates faced league wide.

The average of these rankings is actually 21st.

Those quarterbacks have combined to post a passer rating of 91.5 this season, slightly below the league average of 94.6.

The Colts lead the league in passer rating allowed at 78.9, holding opposing starters 12.6 points below their season average.

It's true they haven't faced an elite passing attack so far but still seem to be one of the better units the Packers will face this year.

Lastly, a QB rating reflects the overall success of the passing attack, which “bakes in” the rest of the personnel. The fact is that Rodgers has the best rating in the league with the pass catchers he’s had to work with.

I mostly attribute Rodgers leading the league in passer rating to him being an elite quarterback but not the team having a ton of talent at wide receiver.

Usually when they have one catch. They were only thrown to one time. I think that is the playcalling.

There's no reason to force the ball more to Tonyan and especially Sternberger.

I thought there was something like a 48 hour waiting period due to COVID testing before a new player can join a team?

The Packers worked out Kaser this week and told him to stay in Green Bay after it. He had to pass COVID-19 protocols in order to work out with the team.

Maybe Scott's absence for a personal matter was foreseeable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ian Rapoport report that Allen Lazard will play tonight but the Packers plan to put him on a pitch count to ease him back in.