Tracking playoff positioning

[Magooch]

Captain said it - need two out of three to happen (and, IMO this would be the order of most to least probable):

Giants lose 4/5
Commanders lose 3/4
Seahawks lose 3/5

Giants play the Eagles, the Commanders, the Vikings, the Colts, and the Eagles. They should definitely be favored over the Colts, but I would assume are underdogs against the Eagles and Vikings and of course just played to a tie with the Commanders. Currently FiveThirtyEight's projections have the Eagles favored by 6.5, Commanders by 5, Vikings by 7.5, Giants by 2, and Eagles by 10.5, so naturally if that all played out as projected that would be one win and four losses. Checkmark.

Commanders play the Giants again; as above they are favored by 5 points and of course would probably need to win that in order for the Giants to get to four losses. With a win there that would mean needing to lose their remaining three matches: 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys. Current projections are 49ers by 1, Commanders by 0.5, and Cowboys by 5.5 - SF is a bit of a wild card with Jimmy G's injury, but they didn't really miss a beat this last week. Same with the Browns - if they get a "pre-suspension" Deshaun Watson then I would think they should win it. But he looked pretty rusty last week, to say the least. Cowboys should win handily.

With Seattle it's a bit harder for me to see it. They play the Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets, and Rams. I would confidently pick the Chiefs to win, but I don't know about the rest... Currently it's at Seahawks by 5.5, Seahawks by 3, Chiefs by 9, Seahawks by 3.5, and Seahawks by 4.5 - so you'd need to see two "upsets" to really have much chance there. That's why I see NYG and Wash as more likely.

Of course this all requires us winning out too which I am not super confident on yet. Our remaining games are presently projected at: Packers by 10 over Rams, Dolphins by 5.5, Vikings by 2.5, and Packers by 2.5.

 

[OldSchool101]

I

Unfortunately, Dallas, the Gmen, the Commanders, and Pete Carroll will likely have at least 9 wins but will not win their divisions.

I see that. I was kinda glad Tampa came back and Won. There’s gonna be a Division winner either way so might as well have them Knock down that the rest of the NFC South. We will be Tampa fans for the next couple weeks.
Atlanta .443 past opponents wins over GB (.435) by SOS tie breaker. However we should pass them up (.456 future opponents) down the stretch with our current .532 scheduled opponents. As long as we win our games there’s a 90% chance we’ll nip Atlanta on SOS after our Vikings game.

For those that didn’t see the Monday night game. Go watch the last 15 minutes or so. Brady just passed Manning for the record for MOST 4th qtr come from behind victories. It was clear how good he is under pressure. Just a phenomenal X factor, you’ve gotta respect his tenacity.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Every time I open this thread, all I hear is Jim Mora.

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[milani]

Captain said it - need two out of three to happen (and, IMO this would be the order of most to least probable):

Giants lose 4/5
Commanders lose 3/4
Seahawks lose 3/5

Giants play the Eagles, the Commanders, the Vikings, the Colts, and the Eagles. They should definitely be favored over the Colts, but I would assume are underdogs against the Eagles and Vikings and of course just played to a tie with the Commanders. Currently FiveThirtyEight's projections have the Eagles favored by 6.5, Commanders by 5, Vikings by 7.5, Giants by 2, and Eagles by 10.5, so naturally if that all played out as projected that would be one win and four losses. Checkmark.

Commanders play the Giants again; as above they are favored by 5 points and of course would probably need to win that in order for the Giants to get to four losses. With a win there that would mean needing to lose their remaining three matches: 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys. Current projections are 49ers by 1, Commanders by 0.5, and Cowboys by 5.5 - SF is a bit of a wild card with Jimmy G's injury, but they didn't really miss a beat this last week. Same with the Browns - if they get a "pre-suspension" Deshaun Watson then I would think they should win it. But he looked pretty rusty last week, to say the least. Cowboys should win handily.

With Seattle it's a bit harder for me to see it. They play the Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets, and Rams. I would confidently pick the Chiefs to win, but I don't know about the rest... Currently it's at Seahawks by 5.5, Seahawks by 3, Chiefs by 9, Seahawks by 3.5, and Seahawks by 4.5 - so you'd need to see two "upsets" to really have much chance there. That's why I see NYG and Wash as more likely.

Of course this all requires us winning out too which I am not super confident on yet. Our remaining games are presently projected at: Packers by 10 over Rams, Dolphins by 5.5, Vikings by 2.5, and Packers by 2.5.

Very good symposium. Thanks. I believe the Jets are capable of beating the Seahawks but that is how the coaching of Pete Carroll in crunch time plays a big part. The Jets could have beaten the Vikings but did not. Came down to just a couple plays. Those 4 losses to perennial losers really hurt us. That is when our coaching staff struck out.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

With the recent injury to Garoppolo, it would not surprise me at all if the 49'ers end up being a WC and the Seahawks win the division. Both have 2-3 "easy" opponents and they also play each other.

If I had to predict today, the final NFC Playoff picture, based on schedule, it would be:

1. Eagles
2. Vikings
3. Seahawks
4. Buccaneers
5. Cowboys
6. Giants
7. 49'ers/Giants/Commanders

 

[thequick12]

Dallas Current 9-3 Projected 12-5
GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Seattle Current 7-5 Projected 9-8
NYG Current 7-4-1 Projected 8-8-1
WAS Current 7-5-1 Projected 8-8-1
Detroit 5-7 Projected 7-10

If Packers win out, it looks like they'll end up as the # 6 or # 7 seed heading into the Playoffs

 

[JK64]

Dallas Current 9-3 Projected 12-5
GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Seattle Current 7-5 Projected 9-8
NYG Current 7-4-1 Projected 8-8-1
WAS Current 7-5-1 Projected 8-8-1
Detroit 5-7 Projected 7-10

If Packers win out, it looks like they'll end up as the # 6 or # 7 seed heading into the Playoffs

I doubt the Packers can win 4 in a row with this terrible Joe Barry defense.

 

[longtimefan]

This team doesn't deserve playoff spot

 

[JK64]

This team doesn't deserve playoff spot

That too.

 

[thequick12]

Both are currently true...however if they do win these last 4 games do they then deserve it?

And the thing is if Doubs is healthy after the bye idk things could get interesting. Beat the Rams at home off the bye all of a sudden thats 2 in a row and things have gotten interesting heading down to Miami. You win that game Christmas in Miami uh oh thats 3 in a row and things get really interesting heading back to Lambeau for 2 division games

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Dallas Current 9-3 Projected 12-5
GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Seattle Current 7-5 Projected 9-8
NYG Current 7-4-1 Projected 8-8-1
WAS Current 7-5-1 Projected 8-8-1
Detroit 5-7 Projected 7-10

If Packers win out, it looks like they'll end up as the # 6 or # 7 seed heading into the Playoffs

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Both are currently true...however if they do win these last 4 games do they then deserve it?

And the thing is if Doubs is healthy after the bye idk things could get interesting. Beat the Rams at home off the bye all of a sudden thats 2 in a row and things have gotten interesting heading down to Miami. You win that game Christmas in Miami uh oh thats 3 in a row and things get really interesting heading back to Lambeau for 2 division games

I need to start drinking whatever you are drinking.

 

[Mondio]

Overcoming insurmountable odds is half of what makes sports so interesting and there's a good chunk of you that would have cashed it in weeks ago for a freaking draft pick that you started talking about in May LOL.

You know what else helps teams besides high draft picks. Confidence. Figuring **** out, becoming a team, hard work. Grinding when it all seems lost. Give me a team with those traits any day.

I'd rather they win every game, overcome a lot of what has been ailing them all year. See Doubs and Watson ball out and look like studs who are finally coming around and belong here in the NFL. See an Oline without BakhT that is solid in run and pass and quits with the mistakes and penalties that plagued them earlier. See the defense play as a unit and not individuals and turn this thing around. Miss the playoffs and end up with pick in the 20's than watch them lose it for a ****ing draft pick. Losers play for draft picks.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This says the odds of the Packers making the playoffs is 4%.

How the Green Bay Packers Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 17 (Published 2023)

The Packers now have a 62% chance to make the playoffs.

www.nytimes.com

Meanwhile, Love stays on the bench and instead of sitting in the #5 draft slot, the Packers are now in the #11 slot with the win over the Bears.

You act as if having the #5 pick guarantees ending up with a better player than at #11.

In addition I have absolutely no sympathy for losing as long as there's still a chance to make the playoffs.

The Giants play Philly the last game of the season, and the Commanders play the Cowboys the last game of the season.

It’s possible the Cowboys and/or Eagles wouldn’t have anything to play for in week 18 if the Eagles have the 1 seed locked up and the Cowboys can’t improve their positioning.

Dammit, you're right about that.

And the Eagles position could depend on the Vikings continuing to win close ones. Maybe we could knock them off at Lambeau and assure Philly the 1 spot.

The Packers would benefit if the Eagles haven't secured the first seed before the last week of the regular season though.

Unfortunately, Dallas, the Gmen, the Commanders, and Pete Carroll will likely have at least 9 wins but will not win their divisions.

I'm not convinced all of them will actually end up winning nine games.

With the recent injury to Garoppolo, it would not surprise me at all if the 49'ers end up being a WC and the Seahawks win the division. Both have 2-3 "easy" opponents and they also play each other.

If I had to predict today, the final NFC Playoff picture, based on schedule, it would be:

1. Eagles
2. Vikings
3. Seahawks
4. Buccaneers
5. Cowboys
6. Giants
7. 49'ers/Giants/Commanders

I don't think the Seahawks are that good. I could see them losing to the Niners, Chiefs and Jets.

 

[thequick12]

Dallas Current 9-3 Projected 12-5
Wk14 Texans W
Wk15 Jags W
Wk 16 Eagles L could W
Wk 17 Titans L
Wk 18 WAS W could L

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Seattle Current 7-5 Projected 9-8
Wk14 Panthers W
Wk15 49ers L
Wk16 KC L
Wk17 Jets L Could W
Wk18 Rams W Could L

NYG Current 7-4-1 Projected 8-8-1
Wk14 Eagles L
Wk15 WAS L
Wk16 Vikings L
Wk17 Colts W
Wk18 Eagles L

WAS Current 7-5-1 Projected 8-8-1
Wk15 Giants W
Wk16 49ers L
Wk17 Browns L
Wk18 Cowboys L

Detroit 5-7 Projected 7-10
Wk14 Vikings L
Wk15 Jets L
Wk16 Panthers W
Wk17 Bears W
Wk18 GB L

Seems reasonable...

 

[Krabs]

Dallas Current 9-3 Projected 12-5
GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Seattle Current 7-5 Projected 9-8
NYG Current 7-4-1 Projected 8-8-1
WAS Current 7-5-1 Projected 8-8-1
Detroit 5-7 Projected 7-10

If Packers win out, it looks like they'll end up as the # 6 or # 7 seed heading into the Playoffs

This is not happening. They were out as soon as they lost to the Lions. No one should expect a playoff birth after that performance.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You act as if having the #5 pick guarantees ending up with a better player than at #11.

So you are implying that it doesn't matter?

Let me ask you, what would YOU trade to move from #11 to the #5 pick?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Seems reasonable...

All but this part:

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Also, you forgot to include SF. They are not a lock to win their division. With the loss of Garapolo, I would say that it is very likely that the Seahawks wins the division and the 49'ers end up a WC.

 

[thequick12]

All but this part:

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Also, you forgot to include SF. They are not a lock to win their division. With the loss of Garapolo, I would say that it is very likely that the Seahawks wins the division and the 49'ers end up a WC.

I think SF defense is too good

 

[Krabs]

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Seems reasonable...

Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins L
Wk17 Vikings L
Wk18 Lions L

This seems more reasonable. I think by the Lions game we will be out of it and will play a lot of scrubs. I could see that as a win. I'm going loss though.

 

[thequick12]

Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins L
Wk17 Vikings L
Wk18 Lions L

This seems more reasonable. I think by the Lions game we will be out of it and will play a lot of scrubs. I could see that as a win. I'm going loss though.

I guess we shall see...if they beat the Rams and Dolphins tho watch out!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think SF defense is too good

San Fran and the NFC West has had a pretty easy schedule, in that they all played the NFC South and AFC West. Not to mention that their own division is very weak this year. Of the 49'ers 8 wins, only 2 were against decent teams (Dolphins, Chargers). They got beat by the Bears, Falcons and Broncos.

On a side note, the schedule makers picked a bad year for the Packers to have to play both the NFL East and AFC East. Not one of the 10 teams in those 2 divisions are currently under .500.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

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Does anybody have the latest temp readings for hell lately ?

 

[Mondio]

We had I Screams there once. They were good.

Does anybody have the latest temp readings for hell lately ?

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[Deleted member 6794]

This is not happening. They were out as soon as they lost to the Lions. No one should expect a playoff birth after that performance.

Most posters have stated repeatedly that we don't expect the Packers to win the rest of their games. It's fun to talk about what would need to happen for them to make the playoffs if they did though.

So you are implying that it doesn't matter?

Let me ask you, what would YOU trade to move from #11 to the #5 pick?

While I would prefer the Packers to have the fifth pick instead of the 11th but I don't want them to tank for it with a playoff spot still possible.

Also, you forgot to include SF. They are not a lock to win their division. With the loss of Garapolo, I would say that it is very likely that the Seahawks wins the division and the 49'ers end up a WC.

I fully expect the Niners to win their division but wouldn't mind them losing all of the remaining games either

On a side note, the schedule makers picked a bad year for the Packers to have to play both the NFL East and AFC East. Not one of the 10 teams in those 2 divisions are currently under .500.

Wait a moment, they expanded the divisions to five teams again???