Tracking playoff positioning

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah the situation is pretty impossible, but still a real outside shot. Not worried about teams like the falcons and saints who are even with us. Obviously we need to win our last five. Then we need to Seahawks to continue to struggle down the stretch, and either one of two of the Giants and Washington to lose at least four out of there last five.

First, the Packers need to fix the defense and then the offense and maybe tweak the special teams.....then they can worry about the other teams winning and losing games for them.

It isn't happening. I understand and respect the optimism of fans here, but this team isn't making the playoffs and shouldn't make the playoffs.

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[Firethorn1001]

Step 1 : Not give up 363 yards rushing
Step 2 : ???
Step 3 : Playoffs

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Then we need to Seahawks to continue to struggle down the stretch, and either one of two of the Giants and Washington to lose at least four out of there last five.

The Commanders and Giants play each other twice over the next three games. The Packers need to hope for one of them winning both of those games, if they split them it's essentially over.

It isn't happening. I understand and respect the optimism of fans here, but this team isn't making the playoffs and shouldn't make the playoffs.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Packers to win their remaining five games. But if they do it for some reason it's fun to speculate what needs to happen for them to make the playoffs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Packers to win their remaining five games. But if they do it for some reason it's fun to speculate what needs to happen for them to make the playoffs.

Don't get me wrong, but I have a lot of fun, imagining what has to happen for the Packers to get a top 3 pick in all 6 rounds of the draft. After which, I can imagine what they will do with those picks to try and improve the team.

Would I love them to catch fire, sneak into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl? Of course I would, but this team has shown very little signs of being a playoff contender and definitely not one that would go on the road and win 3 straight games.

 

[rmontro]

Don't get me wrong, but I have a lot of fun, imagining what has to happen for the Packers to get a top 3 pick in all 6 rounds of the draft. After which, I can imagine what they will do with those picks to try and improve the team.

My guess is they don't win enough games to make the playoffs, but win too many to get an elite pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

Step 1 : Not give up 363 yards rushing
Step 2 : ???
Step 3 : Playoffs

2. Allowing less than a 40 Burger!

 

[Firethorn1001]

Don't get me wrong, but I have a lot of fun, imagining what has to happen for the Packers to get a top 3 pick in all 6 rounds of the draft. After which, I can imagine what they will do with those picks to try and improve the team.

Spoiler alert. The 3rd round pick will be hot garbage.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Spoiler alert. The 3rd round pick will be hot garbage.

Agreed. Gute needs to trade that 3rd round pick for a 4th and whatever he can get! Why push his luck? Maybe the Raiders will trade their first round pick for it, they equally suck with their 1st round picks.

 

[PackAttack12]

The reason you don’t give up on a mathematical chance is because you just never know what could play out.

Obviously the odds of the Packers going undefeated the rest of the way aren’t great, especially with how awful the defense is playing and how compromised Rodgers is with the injuries. And let me make this clear: I DO NOT think the Packers will go undefeated for it to even matter.

But if they do, this is just one example of a scenario that could play out for the Packers to make it in:

Obviously this includes the Packers running the table. Then……

Week 13:

Giants over Commanders

Week 14:

Panthers over Seahawks

Week 15:

49ers over Seahawks
Giants over Commanders

Week 16:

Chiefs over Seahawks

Week 17:

Browns over Commanders

Week 18:

Cowboys over Commanders

Again…..can you count on all of these games falling like this? No. But it just goes to show that’s why you play the games and add them up at the end of the season and let the tie breakers and such fall where they may.

 

[OldSchool101]

We know there are 7 spots.
1 of Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, Saints

That’s 6 spots.
We know Philly is in

That’s 5 spots.
We know the Vikings won’t lose 5 AND us Win 5
So We know we won’t Win the North

That’s 4 spots left
We know the 49ers or Seahawks will win the West

That’s 3 spots left of this group
1. Cowboys (8-3)
2. 49ers/Seahawks (leftover of)
3. Giants (7-4) they win Tie
4. Washington (7-5) they win Tie
5. Falcons 5-7
6. Lions/Packers
7. Packers/Lions
8. Cards
9. Panthers
10. Saints

The Cowboys are going to take a Wild Card

To stay alive, ideally we need a Packer Win and help from
Seahawks, Giants, Washington, Falcons mostly losses.

We know either the Washington or Giants will win this week they go head to head.
Strangely, Washington then has a bye and then plays Giants again in back to back contests.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The reason you don’t give up on a mathematical chance is because you just never know what could play out.

Obviously the odds of the Packers going undefeated the rest of the way aren’t great, especially with how awful the defense is playing and how compromised Rodgers is with the injuries. And let me make this clear: I DO NOT think the Packers will go undefeated for it to even matter.

But if they do, this is just one example of a scenario that could play out for the Packers to make it in:

Obviously this includes the Packers running the table. Then……

Week 13:

Giants over Commanders

Week 14:

Panthers over Seahawks

Week 15:

49ers over Seahawks
Giants over Commanders

Week 16:

Chiefs over Seahawks

Week 17:

Browns over Commanders

Week 18:

Cowboys over Commanders

Again…..can you count on all of these games falling like this? No. But it just goes to show that’s why you play the games and add them up at the end of the season and let the tie breakers and such fall where they may.

In that scenario it would actually be good enough if the Commanders lose three of their remaining games. The Packers would win a three team tiebreaker with the Commanders and Seahawks based on the best record in conference games. The head-to-head only applies in those situations if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.

Once again, just to be clear, I don't expect the Packers to win all of their remaining games either.

 

[Mondio]

Well, they’re kissing sisters in New York, what does that do to our slim chances?

 

[Snoops]

Does that tie help their cause? Lol

 

[pacmaniac]

Does that tie help their cause? Lol

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[Mondio]

I didn’t think it helped

 

[OldSchool101]

After that Tie if Either of the Giants or Washington win 2 of their remaining contests, They would automatically qualify for playoffs over Green Bay. That’s even if GB Wins 4 more straight.

We need Seattle and 1 of either Washington or Giants to crash and burn down the stretch.

Currently, Atlanta wins a tie breaker over us based on Strength of Victory.

 

[PackAttack12]

Seattle squeaking out a victory at the last minute was a 10/10 on the lame meter.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well, they’re kissing sisters in New York, what does that do to our slim chances?

Well, it didn't help but the Packers don't need the Seahawks to end up with the same record anymore as there won't be a tiebreaker with either the Commanders or Giants anymore (aside of them playing to another tie in week 15).

If they win out (once again, something I don't expect to happen) they two of the following things to happen:

The Giants lose four of their last five, the Seahawks three of their last five, the Commanders three of their last four.

Taking a look at their remaining schedules there might be a decent chance for that to happen, especially if the Commanders beat the Giants in two weeks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This says the odds of the Packers making the playoffs is 4%.

How the Green Bay Packers Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 17 (Published 2023)

The Packers now have a 62% chance to make the playoffs.

www.nytimes.com

Meanwhile, Love stays on the bench and instead of sitting in the #5 draft slot, the Packers are now in the #11 slot with the win over the Bears.

 

[milani]

This says the odds of the Packers making the playoffs is 4%.

How the Green Bay Packers Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 17 (Published 2023)

The Packers now have a 62% chance to make the playoffs.

www.nytimes.com

Meanwhile, Love stays on the bench and instead of sitting in the #5 draft slot, the Packers are now in the #11 slot with the win over the Bears.

Don't worry. We could lose the next 4 and maybe the Bears get .

 

[PackAttack12]

Well, it didn't help but the Packers don't need the Seahawks to end up with the same record anymore as there won't be a tiebreaker with either the Commanders or Giants anymore (aside of them playing to another tie in week 15).

If they win out (once again, something I don't expect to happen) they two of the following things to happen:

The Giants lose four of their last five, the Seahawks three of their last five, the Commanders three of their last four.

Taking a look at their remaining schedules there might be a decent chance for that to happen, especially if the Commanders beat the Giants in two weeks.

The Giants play Philly the last game of the season, and the Commanders play the Cowboys the last game of the season.

It’s possible the Cowboys and/or Eagles wouldn’t have anything to play for in week 18 if the Eagles have the 1 seed locked up and the Cowboys can’t improve their positioning.

 

[milani]

The Giants play Philly the last game of the season, and the Commanders play the Cowboys the last game of the season.

It’s possible the Cowboys and/or Eagles wouldn’t have anything to play for in week 18 if the Eagles have the 1 seed locked up and the Cowboys can’t improve their positioning.

And the Eagles position could depend on the Vikings continuing to win close ones. Maybe we could knock them off at Lambeau and assure Philly the 1 spot.

 

[OldSchool101]

There are FIVE teams that are 4-8 records. The Saints appear to be on the verge of an upset over Tampa to go 5-8 in a Tie with us.

I’m speculating, but the 4-8 Cards, 4-8 Falcons, 4-8 Saints and
4-8 Panthers only play 1 Winning team each going forward. So any of them could finish winning at least few more games and catch our record or even conceivably pass us.

While that doesn’t bode well for postseason dreams, It does infer that we could still win 2 of the next 4 (my guess) and not drop our current draft positioning area.

 

[Pkrjones]

Week 15 Washington beating NY Giants is THE key game...assuming GB wins out.

 

[milani]

There are FIVE teams that are 4-8 records. The Saints appear to be on the verge of an upset over Tampa to go 5-8 in a Tie with us.

I’m speculating, but the 4-8 Cards, 4-8 Falcons, 4-8 Saints and
4-8 Panthers only play 1 Winning team each going forward. So any of them could finish winning at least few more games and catch our record or even conceivably pass us.

While that doesn’t bode well for postseason dreams, It does infer that we could still win 2 of the next 4 (my guess) and not drop our current draft positioning area.

Unfortunately, Dallas, the Gmen, the Commanders, and Pete Carroll will likely have at least 9 wins but will not win their divisions.