The Point of the Draft Picks

[Pokerbrat2000]

I found an interesting take on another forum I post on (I hope it is okay for me to put this link in here, I'm not sure how to insert the clip alone in here by another method) - Footballs Future. It is a clip of the Doug Gottlieb radio show and his take on our draft. The clip is near the bottom of the page.

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/27529-packers-qb-situation/?page=15

This should do it for you. Just copy the YouTube URL and paste it in your post.

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[PackAttack12]

As the Tweet says, I think Nagler did hit it on the head with this. I would have also added that while some might think this move is a year or 2 early, it was an inevitable move. This may be the Packers only swing at replacing Rodgers or it might be one of many, but it was coming.

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If this is only the first of multiple swings at replacing Rodgers, then the move is a colossal failure.

So are you in mind set of they don't know what they are doing or they know

I'm still trying to process exactly what I feel like is really going on. I'm not prepared to suggest that Gute and Lafleur and manically trying to push Rodgers out the door, but by the same token, I'm also not suggesting that everything is roses and sunshine.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If this is only the first of multiple swings at replacing Rodgers, then the move is a colossal failure.

The move or the player taken in the move is a "colossal failure"? They are 2 separate things. The Dolphins have been trying for 20 years to find a starting QB. I wouldn't call taking swings at doing such a failure, but individually and collectively you can have failures.

If Love is a failure, you might want to say that this particular outcome of a move ended up being a failure, but trying to find your next QB through the draft isn't a failures and in the case of the Dolphins, added up, colossal failure.

IMO, using a top 5 or 10 pick on a QB that doesn't pan out, is a much more painful outcome of a move like this.

Packers fans, including myself, have to come to terms with the fact that Rodgers's career is winding down and finding his replacement was talked about by most of us as a 2021 or 2022 event. I have gotten over the fact that the Packers swung a little early with a late round 1st, at a guy that has the potential to be a home run. IMO, it sure beats the hell out of taking a swing in the 5th round or later over the next 4 years.

 

[Pugger]

This should do it for you. Just copy the YouTube URL and paste it in your post.

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Oh, okay. Thanks for showing me how.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm not prepared to suggest that Gute and Lafleur and manically trying to push Rodgers out the door, but by the same token

This is the trap people are falling into, including myself when I first heard the pick. How are they pushing Rodgers out the door? The contract that Gute and the Packers agreed to with Rodgers has him in Green Bay for a minimum of 2 years. probably 3. Perhaps even longer if Love doesn't pan out and Rodgers continues to play at a high level. Why wouldn't the Packers plan for the end of that time period? They saw what in their minds was the Packers QB of the future fall to them in the first round, they pounced. Perhaps maybe, can posters admit that there is a slight chance that Gute and the Packers have a better understanding of Rodgers window than us fans and the media do?

What I find funny are the people that say that Love is a lousy pick and that he will never be an NFL QB, are saying in the same breath "wasn't time to replace Rodgers". Well guess what, if you are right, Love will not be the one replacing Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Dantés]

Before the draft, I was talking to a friend and I said that while I thought it was too early for a QB, Jordan Love was the only guy that gave me pause.

Reason being, Love would benefit from at least one, if not two seasons before he's ready to start, but the pay off from that development could be huge.

One of the biggest benefits of a QB on a rookie deal is the cap savings that he provides that can be spent around him on the roster. We don't get that with Love in his first couple seasons. But if he isn't ready until 2021 or 2022 regardless, does it matter? And if he's a plus player at the position 2023-24, they still have a window to build around him while he's cheap.

As a prospect, he's uniquely suited to this situation. He's not ready for a year or two, and neither is the team.

Now I also said before the draft that taking a QB in the 1st round would be mismanagment, so I'm not trying to claim that I had this all figured out before the draft. I just didn't expect Love to be an option-- was thinking more of the Hurts, Eason, Fromm level prospects.

 

[Dantés]

As far as timing of the transition, I think the smart money is on 2022 all the way, however I did see this from Spotrac:

Spotrac
@spotrac
·
Apr 29

Realistic possible scenario: Aaron Rodgers plays out 2020 in GB. He then agrees to push back his $6.8M 2021 roster bonus payment date to the summer, allowing the #Packers to trade him Post June 1st, which means $14.3M of 2021 dead cap ($22M saved), & $17.2M of 2022 dead cap.

 

[tynimiller]

As far as timing of the transition, I think the smart money is on 2022 all the way, however I did see this from Spotrac:

Spotrac
@spotrac
·
Apr 29

Realistic possible scenario: Aaron Rodgers plays out 2020 in GB. He then agrees to push back his $6.8M 2021 roster bonus payment date to the summer, allowing the #Packers to trade him Post June 1st, which means $14.3M of 2021 dead cap ($22M saved), & $17.2M of 2022 dead cap.

Saw this as well. I still think GB will keep him as long as he wants to stay and play but if not it won't be before 2022...however that option does possibly make it worth it and if he truly wants out could be a last sign of respect to him to grant his wishes as a departing thank you of sorts.

 

[Dantés]

Saw this as well. I still think GB will keep him as long as he wants to stay and play but if not it won't be before 2022...however that option does possibly make it worth it and if he truly wants out could be a last sign of respect to him to grant his wishes as a departing thank you of sorts.

I highly doubt that. I think we're talking about a maximum of two more years. But we will see.

One factor to consider is possible trade compensation. If this next off-season or the one thereafter someone is offering a premium for Rodgers, you have to consider it if you feel Love is ready.

At literally any other position, if you had a guy that was on his way out the door and could get a premium pick for him, 100% of fans would be on board.

 

[tynimiller]

I highly doubt that. I think we're talking about a maximum of two more years. But we will see.

One factor to consider is possible trade compensation. If this next off-season or the one thereafter someone is offering a premium for Rodgers, you have to consider it if you feel Love is ready.

At literally any other position, if you had a guy that was on his way out the door and could get a premium pick for him, 100% of fans would be on board.

Oh for sure agree. Sorry I wasn't factoring a trade weight in, but of course.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Said it else where

but knowing how bad they would catch crap from media and fans they still traded up for a qb

that takes BALLS.. grandes cojones

the answer is WE don’t know what they are doing

If WE We’re so good WE would be working for an NFL team

I agree that this does take balls. I’ll never forget the excitement that rushed through me when Rodgers was drafted. Love hit me differently to say the least. I was beyond pissed. I have since called down and realize that Rodgers won’t play forever. That being said, I still don’t like the pick. I can deal with drafting a QB but I don’t like the choice. I’d feel much differently if It was Tua or Herbert. I tried hard to get behind it but I can’t. He threw 20 TD’s and 17 picks against HORRIBLE competition. He played against two top 25 teams last year and these are his stats vs’ LSU 130 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT and vs’ Boise state 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. I know this is a team game. I understand all of the arguments about him not having weapons and switching coordinators and new system but I really think we could have done better.

 

[longtimefan]

I agree that this does take balls. I’ll never forget the excitement that rushed through me when Rodgers was drafted. Love hit me differently to say the least. I was beyond pissed. I have since called down and realize that Rodgers won’t play forever. That being said, I still don’t like the pick. I can deal with drafting a QB but I don’t like the choice. I’d feel much differently if It was Tua or Herbert. I tried hard to get behind it but I can’t. He threw 20 TD’s and 17 picks against HORRIBLE competition. He played against two top 25 teams last year and these are his stats vs’ LSU 130 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT and vs’ Boise state 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. I know this is a team game. I understand all of the arguments about him not having weapons and switching coordinators and new system but I really think we could have done better.

I don’t like the pick either, even if it was one of those

 

[GleefulGary]

I agree that this does take balls. I’ll never forget the excitement that rushed through me when Rodgers was drafted. Love hit me differently to say the least. I was beyond pissed. I have since called down and realize that Rodgers won’t play forever. That being said, I still don’t like the pick. I can deal with drafting a QB but I don’t like the choice. I’d feel much differently if It was Tua or Herbert. I tried hard to get behind it but I can’t. He threw 20 TD’s and 17 picks against HORRIBLE competition. He played against two top 25 teams last year and these are his stats vs’ LSU 130 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT and vs’ Boise state 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. I know this is a team game. I understand all of the arguments about him not having weapons and switching coordinators and new system but I really think we could have done better.

If you watch that LSU game and aren't impressed, then very little will impress you.

Process > results.

 

[Fat Dogs]

If you watch that LSU game and aren't impressed, then very little will impress you.

Process > results.

I did not watch this game but I will. I really really do hope that I’m wrong. I just know that five QB’s get drafted in the first round every year and none of them have as poor of stats against unimpressive competition.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I don’t like the pick either, even if it was one of those

It is what it is. Let’s just hope that we are wrong.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’d feel much differently if It was Tua or Herbert.

Easy to say, but the Packers did not have the #5 or #6 pick. How would you have felt about Tua or Herbert had the Packers traded their 1st 4 picks and future 2021 #1 pick, to move up to 5 or 6 to draft one of them?

I get people possibly scratching their heads and saying "why Jordan and why now?" However, then....who, when and how would be my questions for those people. Obviously, nobody has that answer, but that doesn't make you right if you are saying "the Packers should have waited a few years and drafted someone else".

If Jordan ends up being THE man....it was a great gamble. If he ends up not being so good, then toss him on the scrap pile of other failed late round picks.

 

[tynimiller]

I did not watch this game but I will. I really really do hope that I’m wrong. I just know that five QB’s get drafted in the first round every year and none of them have as poor of stats against unimpressive competition.

I mean this in the nicest way possible, blindly just looking at stats doesn't illustrate anything more than numbers on a screen or ink on a paper.

Do you know what all went down at Utah State from 2018 season to 2019 season? Do you know what occurred roster wise, coaching wise?

Jordan should have went pro after his insanely good 2018 season...

The dude tried like heck to throw Utah State on his back in 2019 given all the stuff that happened...and that gunslinger did about as much as he could.

 

[Mondio]

Tau I think may be good, but i would not invest in that body. He looks stout, but seems to get hurt, a lot. I would not have picked Herbert over Love. I do not think Herbert is going to be very good.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

If you watch that LSU game and aren't impressed, then very little will impress you.

Process > results.

People glorify this 6 point 3 turnover LSU game to a ridiculously hilarious degree.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Easy to say, but the Packers did not have the #5 or #6 pick. How would you have felt about Tua or Herbert had the Packers traded their 1st 4 picks and future 2021 #1 pick, to move up to 5 or 6 to draft one of them?

I get people possibly scratching their heads and saying "why Jordan and why now?" However, then....who, when and how would be my questions for those people. Obviously, nobody has that answer, but that doesn't make you right if you are saying "the Packers should have waited a few years and drafted someone else".

If Jordan ends up being THE man....it was a great gamble. If he ends up not being so good, then toss him on the scrap pile of other failed late round picks.

I was obviously talking about one of the two falling to us like Rodgers did. They were great college QB’s with padded resumes. I don’t think Anyone would question the pick if it was just to good to pass up. IMO this is not the case. Your right. None of us are GM’s and this is a gamble.

 

[tynimiller]

People glorify this 6 point 3 turnover LSU game to a ridiculously hilarious degree.

And saying this illustrates when folks just look at stats or score to judge play. Never become a scout please.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I mean this in the nicest way possible, blindly just looking at stats doesn't illustrate anything more than numbers on a screen or ink on a paper.

Do you know what all went down at Utah State from 2018 season to 2019 season? Do you know what occurred roster wise, coaching wise?

Jordan should have went pro after his insanely good 2018 season...

The dude tried like heck to throw Utah State on his back in 2019 given all the stuff that happened...and that gunslinger did about as much as he could.

I get it. I’m not going to lie and say that I’ve watched every Utah State game and I really don’t think anyone on this board has either. The kid obviously has the talent and upside but so does every QB drafted in the first. Sorry but I’m a stats guy. 17 INT’s in one year against bad competition Is not good no matter how you spin it.

 

[tynimiller]

I get it. I’m not going to lie and say that I’ve watched every Utah State game and I really don’t think anyone on this board has either. The kid obviously has the talent and upside but so does every QB drafted in the first. Sorry but I’m a stats guy. 17 INT’s in one year against bad competition Is not good no matter how you spin it.

He spins it better than arguably any prospect in the draft. Yes, including Burrow.

 

[tynimiller]

Just to be clear, as many know, I'm not saying I'd have taken Love - I would not have. I do however love Love and what I think he projects to be.

 

[GleefulGary]

I get it. I’m not going to lie and say that I’ve watched every Utah State game and I really don’t think anyone on this board has either. The kid obviously has the talent and upside but so does every QB drafted in the first. Sorry but I’m a stats guy. 17 INT’s in one year against bad competition Is not good no matter how you spin it.

You're right. The turnovers are a concern.

But when you watch the tape, you can see a lot of it is fixable. A lot of it was trying to do too much. Quite simply, his supporting cast was not very good at all, and his scheme didn't help that much either.