The Point of the Draft Picks

[Heyjoe4]

What if the WRs GB needs to operate a run-heavy scheme are already on the roster? The approach doesn’t require great WRs, only those that execute their assignments and catch the ball (details, details).

 

[Dantés]

There was a lot of talk before the draft about how big a fact athleticism seems to be for Gutekunst's draft (as it was for TT before him). He rarely drafts players who have a RAS below 8. So what happened in this draft?

1. J. Love, QB, USU: 8.43
2. A. Dillon, RB, BC: 9.12
3. J. Deguara, HB, CIN: 8.47
5. K. Martin, LB, MIN: No Data
6. J. Runyan, OL, UM: 8.46
6. J. Hanson, C, OR: Inc. Data
6. S. Stepaniak, OL, UI: No Data
7. V. Scott, DB, TCU: No Data
7. J. Garvin, ED, MIA: 8.98

So... yep. I am skeptical that Hanson would have made it, but you never know. Only one player over 9 is a little unusual for Gute given his first couple drafts, but still-- athletes.

 

[Dantés]

What if the WRs GB needs to operate a run-heavy scheme are already on the roster? The approach doesn’t require great WRs, only those that execute their assignments and catch the ball (details, details).

If we're using SF as a model of what the goal is, then looking at their formational breakdown is relevant. Last year:

• 11 personnel (3 WR): 21% of snaps
• 12 personnel (2 WR): 22%
• 21 personnel (2 WR): 35%
• 22 personnel (1 WR): 19%
• 13 personnel (1 WR): 3%

So 57% of the time they used 2 WR's, and 22% of the time they used 1. Basically the breakdown between 2 WR and 3 WR was 80/20, and they virtually never used more than 3.

In LaFleur's first year, the Packers went from using 11 personnel on 62% of snaps in 2018 to 42% in 2019. Expect that number to keep dropping.

I don't think this means the offense doesn't require good players at the position-- just that they don't need a lot of them compared to teams that use a lot of 3 and 4 receiver sets.

 

[GleefulGary]

All I know is that if Dantes, myself, Mondio, and Amish are all, for the most part, agreeing on things, we must be right.

 

[tynimiller]

There was a lot of talk before the draft about how big a fact athleticism seems to be for Gutekunst's draft (as it was for TT before him). He rarely drafts players who have a RAS below 8. So what happened in this draft?

1. J. Love, QB, USU: 8.43
2. A. Dillon, RB, BC: 9.12
3. J. Deguara, HB, CIN: 8.47
5. K. Martin, LB, MIN: No Data
6. J. Runyan, OL, UM: 8.46
6. J. Hanson, C, OR: Inc. Data
6. S. Stepaniak, OL, UI: No Data
7. V. Scott, DB, TCU: No Data
7. J. Garvin, ED, MIA: 8.98

So... yep. I am skeptical that Hanson would have made it, but you never know. Only one player over 9 is a little unusual for Gute given his first couple drafts, but still-- athletes.

Ever since you posted that thread I quickly was jotting this down with each pick as well....I think for sure Martin would be above 8.00 if not very close, Scott as well. I think Hanson would shock you a little, but I concur he may be just shy.

I don't know if Stepaniak would, but all I know that dude is a STRONG LOL

 

[Toad1924]

Much of the draft analysis both on here and around the internet is so focused on offense. If we are moving to a run heavy offense that doesn't use a lot of 3 or 4 WR sets, then not drafting a WR seems acceptable (not my preference, but it's plausible that it works and helps keep AR healthy). My biggest issue with the draft and our current FA's is that we didn't address our defensive shortcomings. All of our top draft capital went toward changing our offensive foundation and trading up for a QB who will likely be a backup for at least 3 seasons.

Kirksey should be an upgrade over Martinez but has missed most of the last two seasons. If he gets injured, we are in serious trouble.

We didn't add to the DL.

We haven't added a CB and King is a FA next season.

If we are relying on organic improvement from our current players/coaching, we are asking for a massive jump from what we saw late last season and into the playoffs.

Hopefully there are still moves to be made at DL and it sounds like Williams will be back in the slot but he is 37.

Again, my biggest issue with the off season isn't the offensive approach if the org truly thinks it gives us the best chance to win. It is almost completely neglecting the defense which was as soft as ever late last season and the biggest reason we were routed by the 49ers.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Obviously Gute is providing the most assistance possible to Rodgers, providing more evidence that the Packers are not doing everything they can to help him win another Super Bowl. Legacy of Rodger's time in Green Bay will be a legacy of failure by the coaches/front office. Might suck to admit, but you don't get the best QB in NFL history and then get to ONE Super Bowl with him and not get labeled a disappointment.

Gute decided to draft 3 (THREE!!!!) backups with his first three picks this year, that's basically a travesty.

 

[tynimiller]

Much of the draft analysis both on here and around the internet is so focused on offense. If we are moving to a run heavy offense that doesn't use a lot of 3 or 4 WR sets, then not drafting a WR seems acceptable (not my preference, but it's plausible that it works and helps keep AR healthy). My biggest issue with the draft and our current FA's is that we didn't address our defensive shortcomings. All of our top draft capital went toward changing our offensive foundation and trading up for a QB who will likely be a backup for at least 3 seasons.

Kirksey should be an upgrade over Martinez but has missed most of the last two seasons. If he gets injured, we are in serious trouble.

We didn't add to the DL.

We haven't added a CB and King is a FA next season.

If we are relying on organic improvement from our current players/coaching, we are asking for a massive jump from what we saw late last season and into the playoffs.

Hopefully there are still moves to be made at DL and it sounds like Williams will be back in the slot but he is 37.

Again, my biggest issue with the off season isn't the offensive approach if the org truly thinks it gives us the best chance to win. It is almost completely neglecting the defense which was as soft as ever late last season and the biggest reason we were routed by the 49ers.

Defensive Backs have been the most added position on the roster of the year actually....well tied with linebackers as a whole. Now, granted none of those are "highly known" additions.

Christian Kirksey, ILB - Free Agent Signing
Jamal Davis, OLB - Claimed off waivers
Kamal Martin, ILB - 2020 Draftee
Vernon Scott, S - 2020 Draftee
Frankie Grifin, LB - UDFA Signee
Henry Black, DB - UDFA Signee
Will Sunderland, DB - UDFA Signee
Kyrs Barnes, LB - UDFA Signee
Stanford Samuels, DB - UDFA Signee
Marc-Antoine Dequoy, DB - UDFA Signee

It would appear Green Bay will continue to see if Sullivan/Hollman or current guys can continue to progress and fill a Williams void (if unsigned) but they also clearly know and recognize some competition is needed and have brought in a bunch of UDFA's which cornerback is a position gems are found in almost yearly around the league and Green Bay has a fairly decent history with as well. I did have Samuels, Sunderland and Black all on my end of Day 3 board for DBs

 

[Sunshinepacker]

So, the best argument I've heard supporting the idea that Gute didn't epically fail at this draft is that he and MLF want to turn the offense into what SF is running. While cheerful, the major flaws in this argument are that: 1) You need an elite defense to field a run-centric offense and 2) why wouldn't you want the KC offense instead (cause, you know, they just beat SF in the Super Bowl)?

Oh, and you already have a great QB so taking the ball out of his hands more often isn't necessarily a positive.

 

[tynimiller]

Obviously Gute is providing the most assistance possible to Rodgers, providing more evidence that the Packers are not doing everything they can to help him win another Super Bowl. Legacy of Rodger's time in Green Bay will be a legacy of failure by the coaches/front office. Might suck to admit, but you don't get the best QB in NFL history and then get to ONE Super Bowl with him and not get labeled a disappointment.

Gute decided to draft 3 (THREE!!!!) backups with his first three picks this year, that's basically a travesty.

Love will be a backup...but Dillon will push very hard for 2nd snap count I believe amongst our RBs, will do it if Jamaal is traded as I love Dillon and Taylor (UDFA) to make Williams expendable after this last year of his contract. In today's NFL, the way running backs are used...I struggle to call a #2 in a system as ours as a back up...but I concede he will play a support role, but situationally could be depended upon to grind out clock, something Jones isn't built for.

Deguara instantly becomes Vitale's replacement and could be argued may be a FB #1, but will start on special teams as well. In the 3rd round I'm not expecting a guy to come in and be ANY positions #1 honestly...maybe compete for it but not slam dunk be a guarantee.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Love will be a backup...but Dillon will push very hard for 2nd snap count I believe amongst our RBs, will do it if Jamaal is traded as I love Dillon and Taylor (UDFA) to make Williams expendable after this last year of his contract. In today's NFL, the way running backs are used...I struggle to call a #2 in a system as ours as a back up...but I concede he will play a support role, but situationally could be depended upon to grind out clock, something Jones isn't built for.

Deguara instantly becomes Vitale's replacement and could be argued may be a FB #1, but will start on special teams as well. In the 3rd round I'm not expecting a guy to come in and be ANY positions #1 honestly...maybe compete for it but not slam dunk be a guarantee.

Fine, 3rd round picks shouldn't start. That still leaves two other picks that won't be upgrades to the roster unless better players get hurt. That's not great.

 

[tynimiller]

Fine, 3rd round picks shouldn't start. That still leaves two other picks that won't be upgrades to the roster unless better players get hurt. That's not great.

Oh I agree, one cannot say we upgraded starters from this draft. 100%. Just trying to keep us realistic in our critiques. There are valid critiques to be made for sure though.

 

[Toad1924]

Defensive Backs have been the most added position on the roster of the year actually....well tied with linebackers as a whole. Now, granted none of those are "highly known" additions.

Christian Kirksey, ILB - Free Agent Signing
Jamal Davis, OLB - Claimed off waivers
Kamal Martin, ILB - 2020 Draftee
Vernon Scott, S - 2020 Draftee
Frankie Grifin, LB - UDFA Signee
Henry Black, DB - UDFA Signee
Will Sunderland, DB - UDFA Signee
Kyrs Barnes, LB - UDFA Signee
Stanford Samuels, DB - UDFA Signee
Marc-Antoine Dequoy, DB - UDFA Signee

It would appear Green Bay will continue to see if Sullivan/Hollman or current guys can continue to progress and fill a Williams void (if unsigned) but they also clearly know and recognize some competition is needed and have brought in a bunch of UDFA's which cornerback is a position gems are found in almost yearly around the league and Green Bay has a fairly decent history with as well. I did have Samuels, Sunderland and Black all on my end of Day 3 board for DBs

I'm glad you can feel confident in relying on rookies drafted 175th or later and UDFA in the secondary and linebacker unit to turn around our defense from last year but I would rather that not rely on that.

I also specifically mentioned top draft capital who are more likely to make an impact, not late draft picks and UDFA.

It is true that there are impactful late round and UDFA's each year around the league but that doesn't mean it's a good strategy (or sole strategy) to fix what was a defensive disaster late last season.

Hopefully another year for all the players in the system results in a jump in performance, but I am skeptical we can make the jump necessary to compete with title contenders. I really hope we are not done with free agency.

 

[tynimiller]

Not saying I'd bet on an UDFA becoming amazing, merely providing that DBs is a position as an organization they're grabbing a lot of guys at.

 

[Toad1924]

Not saying I'd bet on an UDFA becoming amazing, merely providing that DBs is a position as an organization they're grabbing a lot of guys at.

Hopefully we aren't done in Free Agency. There are still some players at iDL and CB available that will likely be cheaper after the draft. Less so with ILB's though.

I would imagine Taylor Gabriel's price tag has dropped due to the strong WR class as well.

 

[tynimiller]

Hopefully we aren't done in Free Agency. There are still some players at iDL and CB available that will likely be cheaper after the draft. Less so with ILB's though.

I would imagine Taylor Gabriel's price tag has dropped due to the strong WR class as well.

Yes, Gabriel is a guy I've kept my eyes/ears open to. However, I just don't think it will happen...could...but doubtful. If Gute throws a measurable amount of money at someone I think it will be one of the other two positions you listed (iDL or CB). If we sign a WR free agent I personally think it will be those bargain barrel varieties that may or may not work out (ala Ryan Grant)

 

[Toad1924]

Yes, Gabriel is a guy I've kept my eyes/ears open to. However, I just don't think it will happen...could...but doubtful. If Gute throws a measurable amount of money at someone I think it will be one of the other two positions you listed (iDL or CB). If we sign a WR free agent I personally think it will be those bargain barrel varieties that may or may not work out (ala Ryan Grant)

Completely agree with this.

 

[Heyjoe4]

There was a lot of talk before the draft about how big a fact athleticism seems to be for Gutekunst's draft (as it was for TT before him). He rarely drafts players who have a RAS below 8. So what happened in this draft?

1. J. Love, QB, USU: 8.43
2. A. Dillon, RB, BC: 9.12
3. J. Deguara, HB, CIN: 8.47
5. K. Martin, LB, MIN: No Data
6. J. Runyan, OL, UM: 8.46
6. J. Hanson, C, OR: Inc. Data
6. S. Stepaniak, OL, UI: No Data
7. V. Scott, DB, TCU: No Data
7. J. Garvin, ED, MIA: 8.98

So... yep. I am skeptical that Hanson would have made it, but you never know. Only one player over 9 is a little unusual for Gute given his first couple drafts, but still-- athletes.

Dantes, what is RAS? Thanks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes, Gabriel is a guy I've kept my eyes/ears open to. However, I just don't think it will happen...could...but doubtful. If Gute throws a measurable amount of money at someone I think it will be one of the other two positions you listed (iDL or CB). If we sign a WR free agent I personally think it will be those bargain barrel varieties that may or may not work out (ala Ryan Grant)

That looks like Glute’s pattern - ala Devin Funchess.

 

[Dantés]

Dantes, what is RAS? Thanks.

Relative Athletic Score.

It's a metric that takes in all of a player's athletic testing, weight adjusts them, and compared them to the pool of data from past prospects. It spits out a number on a scale of 10 that gives you a sense of how good of a tester a player is relative to other NFL players.

An 8 is really good, and anything above a 9 is elite. It's done on a scale of 10.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Relative Athletic Score.

It's a metric that takes in all of a player's athletic testing, weight adjusts them, and compared them to the pool of data from past prospects. It spits out a number on a scale of 10 that gives you a sense of how good of a tester a player is relative to other NFL players.

An 8 is really good, and anything above a 9 is elite. It's done on a scale of 10.

Thanks pal, that helps a lot. Nice to have one score that combines all these other measures.

Just based on this measure, looks like Gluten picked some winners. That’s not an assessment of the overall draft, although I think I get where Gluten and MLF are going now. My first reaction was WTF!!!!!!!

 

[Dantés]

Thanks pal, that helps a lot. Nice to have one score that combines all these other measures.

Just based on this measure, looks like Gluten picked some winners. That’s not an assessment of the overall draft, although I think I get where Gluten and MLF are going now. My first reaction was WTF!!!!!!!

Gutekunst and Thompson before him have always picked mostly players with really high RAS. They seem to believe that picking from a pool of almost exclusively high level athletes gives them a better chance to be successful. It obviously does not always work out that way.

 

[tynimiller]

That looks like Glute’s pattern - ala Devin Funchess.

Sorry but I won't let someone put Funchess in the same class as Ryan Grant.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sorry but I won't let someone put Funchess in the same class as Ryan Grant.

I didn’t put Funchess in the same class as anyone. I reread my post and don’t see that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Gutekunst and Thompson before him have always picked mostly players with really high RAS. They seem to believe that picking from a pool of almost exclusively high level athletes gives them a better chance to be successful. It obviously does not always work out that way.

Yeah well that last comment is an understatement!

 

[tynimiller]

I didn’t put Funchess in the same class as anyone. I reread my post and don’t see that.

I was illustrating that if Gute spends money on a WR I foresee it as a Ryan Grant type not a Gabriel type...and you brought up "like Funchess". That's all I meant, I disagree with implying they're similar.