The Point of the Draft Picks

[Pokerbrat2000]

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[RRyder]

Can you clarify the Gary hating bit? Are you suggesting that you were almost alone in hating the Gary pick or that it seemed as if everyone but you hated the Gary pick?

I'm suggesting that there weren't many speaking out against it. Not that I was the only one but there was a very clear majority of posters I that talked themselves into it and now are using a bit of revisionist history.

Back on point though. Its 100% fair to be critical of a pick. I've done it. Others do it. Many will continue to do it. It sparks debate.

I find it mostly amusing though that people say "you need to wait a few years to be critical" if they like a pick but then when they don't like a pick fall back into the "well what's the point of discussing a draft if we have to wait"

Just be consistent

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I find it mostly amusing though that people say "you need to wait a few years to be critical"

Only speaking for myself of course I think there are some people who speak in absolutes: "It was a horrendous pick" or "It was a great pick". Which if that is a reactionary statement and obviously an opinion, no harm really. Most of us recognize those as opinions in the early stage, but some try to back them up as cold hard facts and fail to recognize that no matter what side of the opinion you are on, with some things, you actually do have to wait a few years to be "right or wrong".

 

[tynimiller]

Only speaking for myself of course I think there are some people who speak in absolutes: "It was a horrendous pick" or "It was a great pick". Which if that is a reactionary statement and obviously an opinion, no harm really. Most of us recognize those as opinions in the early stage, but some try to back them up as cold hard facts and fail to recognize that no matter what side of the opinion you are on, with some things, you actually do have to wait a few years to be "right or wrong".

I'll speak in an absolute for a moment, "This is absolute fact ^^^" Well said.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What's ironic about you calling me a "self proclaimed draft guru" is that I'm not the one claiming to know that this was a terrible draft.

True, you're trying to convince everybody else that the Packers did a masterful job during this year's draft ignoring that everybody else covering the league seems to think different about it.

Let me clear though, it's definitely possible this year's draft class works out perfectly and I have to eat a ton of crow because of it but the odds are stacked against it.

I find it mostly amusing though that people say "you need to wait a few years to be critical" if they like a pick but then when they don't like a pick fall back into the "well what's the point of discussing a draft if we have to wait"

Just be consistent

I'm not sure if you're talking about me but I was pretty adamant about not liking the selection of Gary last year as well.

 

[thequick12]

It's all about Love. If he hits, it will have been a great draft almost regardless of everything else. If he flops, it will have been a terrible draft almost regardless of everything else.

I agree with your theory, having posted the exact same thing right after the draft. It's obvious mlf fell in love with the first 3 picks and gute clearly took a lot of input from mlf in making those picks. I don't disagree with doing that if you hire a coach you should give him the pieces he needs to do things his way.

However that doesn't necessitate reaching for players or trading up for a guy that would have 99% fallen to you at #30 because no one else was after a qb in the first round.

Basically gute should have been more patient and he could have gotten the same players without giving up #136. Then trade up for Mims in the 2nd, I think he went like 3 picks before the packers, so it wouldn't have taken much to be aggressive and get him. Grab Dillion in the 3rd and deguara in the 4th. Just that one change would have made this a much more palatable draft and I believe a much better one.

Like you said it still would come down to Love as to whether this was a good draft just like Rodgers made 2005 a good draft. But at least you would of gotten a top wr prospect for the immediate future as well as your guy for 4 years down the road.

Because this has definitely started the clock on Rodgers career in GB. Just like drafting Rodgers assured that Favres last season in green bay would be 2007. They had to let Rodgers play because they had to know whether or not to pay him a big money extension.

The Packers are now going to have to let Love play in his 5th season to see if he's worthy of a big money extension. There's only two ways that doesn't happen, one Rodgers with a renewed chip on his shoulder plays so we'll that he forces the Packers to trade Love or two Love just isn't the guy and it's clear to the point where they don't need to give him a chance...

 

[tynimiller]

However that doesn't necessitate reaching for players or trading up for a guy that would have 99% fallen to you at #30 because no one else was after a qb in the first round.

Does anyone truly believe Gute would trade up (lose a fourth) for a guy that was guaranteed to be there at #30? We will never know, but many have surmized someone else was trying to make a move as well. For all we know Gute called the teams ahead of us and said if anyone wants to move up for Love we want in. Gute is not dumb enough to trade up if he felt he didn't need to.

 

[GleefulGary]

True, you're trying to convince everybody else that the Packers did a masterful job during this year's draft ignoring that everybody else covering the league seems to think different about it.
.

That's not at all what he's saying.

Big strawman there Cap, big strawman.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Packers are now going to have to let Love play in his 5th season to see if he's worthy of a big money extension.

That is 5 years away. As much as I hope Rodgers is still playing, who knows when he could be done. More importantly, if the Packers don't have a good understanding of what they have in Love in 3 years, they are doing something wrong. Yes, live game action in the NFL is very important, but I think after 3 preseasons, some snaps during the regular season and lots of practices, they won't have to wait 5 years to know what they have.

 

[tynimiller]

That's not at all what he's saying.

Big strawman there Cap, big strawman.

I love what Capt brings to the forums, sometimes disagree sometimes agree...but lately he has been strawmanning folks comments a ton.

 

[tynimiller]

That is 5 years away. As much as I hope Rodgers is still playing, who knows when he could be done. More importantly, if the Packers don't have a good understanding of what they have in Love in 3 years, they are doing something wrong. Yes, live game action in the NFL is very important, but I think after 3 preseasons, some snaps during the regular season and lots of practices, they won't have to wait 5 years to know what they have.

Shoot IF this becomes an issue in 4 or 5 years folks we will all be INCREDIBLY happy because that means most likely Aaron is playing continually at a very high level for us. We can only hope to have this problem.

 

[Dantés]

I agree with your theory, having posted the exact same thing right after the draft. It's obvious mlf fell in love with the first 3 picks and gute clearly took a lot of input from mlf in making those picks. I don't disagree with doing that if you hire a coach you should give him the pieces he needs to do things his way.

However that doesn't necessitate reaching for players or trading up for a guy that would have 99% fallen to you at #30 because no one else was after a qb in the first round.

Basically gute should have been more patient and he could have gotten the same players without giving up #136. Then trade up for Mims in the 2nd, I think he went like 3 picks before the packers, so it wouldn't have taken much to be aggressive and get him. Grab Dillion in the 3rd and deguara in the 4th. Just that one change would have made this a much more palatable draft and I believe a much better one.

Like you said it still would come down to Love as to whether this was a good draft just like Rodgers made 2005 a good draft. But at least you would of gotten a top wr prospect for the immediate future as well as your guy for 4 years down the road.

Because this has definitely started the clock on Rodgers career in GB. Just like drafting Rodgers assured that Favres last season in green bay would be 2007. They had to let Rodgers play because they had to know whether or not to pay him a big money extension.

The Packers are now going to have to let Love play in his 5th season to see if he's worthy of a big money extension. There's only two ways that doesn't happen, one Rodgers with a renewed chip on his shoulder plays so we'll that he forces the Packers to trade Love or two Love just isn't the guy and it's clear to the point where they don't need to give him a chance...

We will never really know what would have happened, but the reason that Gutekunst moved up to #26 was not because he worried that the Seahawks, Ravens, or Titans would take Love. It was because he feared one of the QB needy teams at the top of the 2nd round (Colts, Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars) would move up ahead of them and take Love if they weren't aggressive. A talented QB who needs a year or two to develop would fit nicely with any of those teams and their current situation at the position.

I think Love is the QB by 2023.

 

[Dantés]

True, you're trying to convince everybody else that the Packers did a masterful job during this year's draft ignoring that everybody else covering the league seems to think different about it.

Let me clear though, it's definitely possible this year's draft class works out perfectly and I have to eat a ton of crow because of it but the odds are stacked against it.

I'm not sure if you're talking about me but I was pretty adamant about not liking the selection of Gary last year as well.

You show me where I said this. I'll wait.

 

[Mavster]

Shoot IF this becomes an issue in 4 or 5 years folks we will all be INCREDIBLY happy because that means most likely Aaron is playing continually at a very high level for us. We can only hope to have this problem.

That’s one way to look at it. A very optimistic angle anyway

Assuming this what-if scenario played out the Packers would have essentially blown a 1st and a 4th on one player. That’s not a good problem to have

 

[tynimiller]

That’s one way to look at it. A very optimistic angle anyway

Assuming this what-if scenario played out the Packers would have essentially blown a 1st and a 4th on one player. That’s not a good problem to have

Oh there are two sides to every draft pick for sure. Flip a coin in essence...some have more likely outcomes some have less likely...but truly always two possible outcomes exist.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Assuming this what-if scenario played out the Packers would have essentially blown a 1st and a 4th on one player. That’s not a good problem to have

Not picking on you specifically, but have read this type of comment several times. People need to look back at the Packer draft history and come to terms with the fact that historically draft Picks are no sure thing, even around #30 and #136. This is probably the same for any team for that matter. So people wanting to imply that Love could be a waste of picks, seem to be implying that using them on another player(s) wouldn't be. If you had a choice of hitting on a DB or a QB with that pick, what would be your preferred position?

 

[TomBrownFan40]

Yikes!
I think it is time for some social distancing from this thread.

Some final thoughts.

We've seen a shift in strategies in Packerland. For years, Ted Thompson's philosophy was one based on the notion that stability is king and roster holes should be filled from the draft outward. Basically, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers' MO for many years. It requires a great deal of scouting expertise and crafty draft day selections but, it can produce dividends if you make the right picks as it gives you a roster full of homegrown system talent under team control for years to come. The downside is if you miss on those picks (especially the high round picks) you may find the same holes opening up every offseason.

We've since seen a shift (I might say urged on by many a Packer fan) in the Gute era. Clearly, his philosophy is binary: fill holes in the present through free agency; build the future through the draft. No, Funchess, Kirksey, and Wagner are not going to be making speeches in Canton, Ohio but, no question they fill the immediate roster holes. Whether you like it or not, Gute's selections in the 2020 draft have the future and not the present in mind. If it works, the dividends could be enormous. The transition from the Rodgers era to the Love era could put this franchise in the successful lane for many years to come. Obviously, the downside is there's no guarantee that development will happen and filling those roster holes through free agency could get more and more expensive.

In any case, we'll see. As for the 2020 draft picks, I enjoyed spending draft day with tyni and others in the shoutbox as we consistently attempted to predict a logical pick only to be dashed by the Packer brass. It's obvious very few if any of us would have made the picks Gute & Co. did. We'll see whether we were on the right track or Gute was on the right track. It's tough to be patient in these difficult times but, it's all we can do.

 

[Mavster]

Oh there are two sides to every draft pick for sure. Flip a coin in essence...some have more likely outcomes some have less likely...but truly always two possible outcomes exist.

Well yes that’s always true. I just don’t see GB taking a QB in the 1st with the plan he’ll sit throughout his rookie deal. I fully believe A12 is gone in 2-3 years. We can then only hope Love continues the trend of tearing out the hearts of our NFCN opponents year after year

 

[GleefulGary]

You show me where I said this. I'll wait.

If you disagree that a player is awful, clearly you're saying the draft was perfect. Duh!

I analyzed your posts, and you have a positivity rating of 98.4 and a negativity eating of 0.04, meaning that your bias scale comes in at a whopping 77.4. That's far above board average, which I think serves my point that you are arguing the Packers draft was masterful and perfect.

 

[GleefulGary]

Well yes that’s always true. I just don’t see GB taking a QB in the 1st with the plan he’ll sit throughout his rookie deal. I fully believe A12 is gone in 2-3 years. We can then only hope Love continues the trend of tearing out the hearts of our NFCN opponents year after year

Unless Love flops terribly (and possibly even if he does) I think you're right. Rodgers is in GB for a maximum of 3 more years, but more likely 2.

 

[tynimiller]

Well yes that’s always true. I just don’t see GB taking a QB in the 1st with the plan he’ll sit throughout his rookie deal. I fully believe A12 is gone in 2-3 years. We can then only hope Love continues the trend of tearing out the hearts of our NFCN opponents year after year

And I wouldn't say anything to the contrary. Merely stating if it becomes and issue all of Green Bay will have an amazing problem on their hands, because that means Rodgers is playing lights out.

 

[Dantés]

If you disagree that a player is awful, clearly you're saying the draft was perfect. Duh!

I analyzed your posts, and you have a positivity rating of 98.4 and a negativity eating of 0.04, meaning that your bias scale comes in at a whopping 77.4. That's far above board average, which I think serves my point that you are arguing the Packers draft was masterful and perfect.

What's my positivity per message posted rating?

 

[GleefulGary]

What's my positivity per message posted rating?

Roughly 2.36 smiles per post. I'd like you to add a frown or two. Round out your game.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't disagree with doing that if you hire a coach you should give him the pieces he needs to do things his way.

While that's true what is the point of extending Rodgers contract with two years left on his deal and then hire a coach not tailoring his offense to the quarterback's strengths???

Does anyone truly believe Gute would trade up (lose a fourth) for a guy that was guaranteed to be there at #30? We will never know, but many have surmized someone else was trying to make a move as well. For all we know Gute called the teams ahead of us and said if anyone wants to move up for Love we want in. Gute is not dumb enough to trade up if he felt he didn't need to.

It's possible the Dolphins only made Gutekunst believe there was a team interested in trading up as well. We'll never know for sure.

Shoot IF this becomes an issue in 4 or 5 years folks we will all be INCREDIBLY happy because that means most likely Aaron is playing continually at a very high level for us. We can only hope to have this problem.

In that case using the first and fourth round pick to surround Rodgers with more talent would have been a lot smarter though.

I think Love is the QB by 2023.

Unfortunately that would mean that the Packers could only take advantage of having a starting quarterback on a rookie deal for a single season at best.

So people wanting to imply that Love could be a waste of picks, seem to be implying that using them on another player(s) wouldn't be.

You had a vastly different opinion about it when we were discussing about Spriggs.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Wimm this was heralded as a deep draft, and just as a number of receivers were taken in the middle of the first round a number of receivers were taken in the second round. Yes its possible that the FO determined that the talent at our positions of our first and second round picks was not sufficient to justify the taking one of the available receivers.

According to Gutekunst, the issue was whether a rookie WR would be of much help now, not whether they were worth the pick. It's often commented upon in these pages, given how obvious it is, that rookie WRs, no matter where they are drafted, often don't contribute much in their first year. First year breakouts are the exception.

Of course a developmental back-up QB, who may in fact be #3 on the depth chart to start out, doesn't do much for now either. It might be worth observing that with another Adams injury, having that rookie WR, however much he's still getting his feet wet, might provide something toward winning whereas if Boyle or Love have to take the reins you can pretty much write off the season.

This had nothing to do with the now, that should be obvious.

Gutekunst said the WRs he would have considered at that first round slot were off the board. That would have been Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson and/or Aiyuk, who were off the board between #12 and #25, in the vicinity of where they were expected to go, some a little lower, some a little higher.

And yet, the day before the draft it was reported that Gutekunst was making calls looking for a trade up in the first round, a report that turned out to be accurate. Which is more plausible? Working on a contingency if a WR of choice happened to fall? Or was it love for Love? GM mind-sets do not involve flipping coins.

There were no reported vitual interviews with those above mentioned receivers, only Mimms. There was with Love, and Gutekunst stated after the fact there was more than one. He's been talking about drafting a QB for the last couple of years, the implication being it would not be a late rounder. He wanted to set up on-sites with a couple of Day 1 - 2 QB prospects in 2019, one accepted and the other declined. He's been on the hunt for that upper round talent for two years.

Maybe, just maybe, if one of these receivers was graded highest and potentially an immediate contributor, and inexplicably dropped, then maybe he takes him. But it's not just receivers--that was the binary decision presented because that's what folks expected. What about other positions of need? If we're going to talk about passing on players that would not help immediately, you have to look at all positions.

I believe, and the evidence suggests, Gutekunst was predisposed to taking a QB, and not just any QB, but this QB, and the pre-draft contingent trades were predicated on that. It would have taken an extraordinary circumstance for it to be otherwise.