The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[rodell330]

I feel like they are going to Franchise tag Aaron Jones and resign Bahk. Keep in mind Jamal Williams is also on his last year...so next season we may see a greater increase in Jones’s workload, and that’ll determine if the Packers want to resign him long term or not based on the 2021 season.

As for his usage I’m ok with it...Williams is a #1 Tb and I’ve said that time and time and will stand by that. So if you’re able to keep Jones fresh throughout the season and for the fourth quarter when you are trying to protect a lead or in a dog fight? I’m ok with that. Keep in mind we are getting into the winter months in Green Bay...you have to be able to run the ball. As good as Rodgers is...you can’t ask him to drop back 30 times in a blizzard. I’d expect to see Jones volume increase during the ladder portion of the season.

 

[tynimiller]

I feel like they are going to Franchise tag Aaron Jones and resign Bahk. Keep in mind Jamal Williams is also on his last year...so next season we may see a greater increase in Jones’s workload, and that’ll determine if the Packers want to resign him long term or not based on the 2021 season.

As for his usage I’m ok with it...Williams is a #1 Tb and I’ve said that time and time and will stand by that. So if you’re able to keep Jones fresh throughout the season and for the fourth quarter when you are trying to protect a lead or in a dog fight? I’m ok with that. Keep in mind we are getting into the winter months in Green Bay...you have to be able to run the ball. As good as Rodgers is...you can’t ask him to drop back 30 times in a blizzard. I’d expect to see Jones volume increase during the ladder portion of the season.

I do believe Williams is a #1 TB or a #1B on half the teams in the league for sure! He's much better than many think or admit.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Presently, I'm beginning to come around to the idea of MLF system I think could overcome an issue of OL struggles.

I don't think any offense can overcome the offensive line struggling on a consistent basis.

Do we trust Yosh is finally ready?

No, there's no way to know if Nijman is any good after he has played only five career snaps.

I think one thing to keep out there on our minds is the idea I've NEVER considered could be an option: keep Linsley instead of Bahk IF that means signing Jones.

It would be a terrible mistake to spend a significant amount of money on a center while letting your franchise left tackle walk away in free agency.

I feel like they are going to Franchise tag Aaron Jones and resign Bahk.

It would be extremely difficult for the Packers to fit Jones under the cap by franchise tagging him. They will most likely need to backload the contracts signed between now and the start of next league year.

 

[gopkrs]

It would be a terrible mistake to spend a significant amount of money on a center while letting your franchise left tackle walk away in free agency.

Right now, I would be willing to gamble on our new O line coach. He has really done a fine job of coaching imho. So I would let both Linsley and Bak go in order to keep our team intact. I think King is very important for one example. And there just seems to be such good chemistry all around. Like I said, it would be a gamble. But we could draft heavily for the O line and would be able to sign a lot of players. Keeping one O tackle and a center at top prices and letting go a fistful of players does not sound good to me. jmo

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Right now, I would be willing to gamble on our new O line coach. He has really done a fine job of coaching imho. So I would let both Linsley and Bak go in order to keep our team intact. I think King is very important for one example. And there just seems to be such good chemistry all around. Like I said, it would be a gamble. But we could draft heavily for the O line and would be able to sign a lot of players. Keeping one O tackle and a center at top prices and letting go a fistful of players does not sound good to me. jmo

This would be a good strategy for improving the chances of Love seeing the field; ups the probability that Rodgers gets knocked out for a significant period of time. If you don't believe in paying the best LT in the league, what positions do you think are worth spending on?

 

[gopkrs]

This would be a good strategy for improving the chances of Love seeing the field; ups the probability that Rodgers gets knocked out for a significant period of time. If you don't believe in paying the best LT in the league, what positions do you think are worth spending on?

I answered that question in my comment. We could keep probably everyone else.

 

[PikeBadger]

Right now, I would be willing to gamble on our new O line coach. He has really done a fine job of coaching imho. So I would let both Linsley and Bak go in order to keep our team intact. I think King is very important for one example. And there just seems to be such good chemistry all around. Like I said, it would be a gamble. But we could draft heavily for the O line and would be able to sign a lot of players. Keeping one O tackle and a center at top prices and letting go a fistful of players does not sound good to me. jmo

King is the 2nd best corner on the team. Bakhtiari is very difficult to replace imo. Linsely is more easily replaceable but he has played great so far this year. Hollman got his first game work against Atlanta. I have heard nothing about his progress and development. Possibly a reasonably priced CB pickup mid season as insurance against King leaving or getting hurt. A lot of unknowns out there. We’ll have to watch and listen closely for clues of future Mgmt decisions.

edit: I seriously doubt they would count on a draft pick being the opening day starter at any of these positions. We aren’t the Jets after all.

 

[RRyder]

Linsley is as good as gone and quite honestly his replacement is probably on the roster allready so don't over think that one.

King is a wild card in how much will he cost.

With the two big fish however it becomes more dicey. I want no part of paying Jones big money but I understand the urge to so by others. "But" if the idea is to let a guy walk so that they can save money for other positions letting Jones walk is the obvious choice and its not particularly close. Hes a RB. Have a 2nd rounder waiting in the wings at the position and plays a position that is just inherently easier to fill.

Really the idea that we should let a LT walk so that they could keep a RB and a CB or Center (you aren't saving enough money by choosing Jones to keep all 3) because they could just "draft heavy on Oline" is one of the most internet statements I've seen in some time.

 

[gopkrs]

Linsley is as good as gone and quite honestly his replacement is probably on the roster allready so don't over think that one.

King is a wild card in how much will he cost.

With the two big fish however it becomes more dicey. I want no part of paying Jones big money but I understand the urge to so by others. "But" if the idea is to let a guy walk so that they can save money for other positions letting Jones walk is the obvious choice and its not particularly close. Hes a RB. Have a 2nd rounder waiting in the wings at the position and plays a position that is just inherently easier to fill.

Really the idea that we should let a LT walk so that they could keep a RB and a CB or Center (you aren't saving enough money by choosing Jones to keep all 3) because they could just "draft heavy on Oline" is one of the most internet statements I've seen in some time.

L tackle is no longer worth much more than a R tackle. Some of the best pass rushers in the league come from their L side. And if you watch Zadarius and others; they switch sides a lot. And we have done quite well with the R tackle. And with a guy a lot of people were lambasting. And have one or two on the side that might be able to do well also. I figure that Bak is going to cost roughly twice what Aaron Jones will cost. I think you have wishful thinking in believing we can replace him with what we have. His role is special. Not to mention King is very valuable 2nd or no. At this point, I am thinking all that money could keep The Pack intact. And I'm liking the players on this team. Some have said Preston could go. I think he is playing very well so far and would not look forward to getting rid of him because Bak is so expensive. We would just have a lot more options. But if we really could not replace Bak; then I think we will suffer elsewhere. And again, Jones is more important than you think imo.

 

[GleefulGary]

Doesn't matter how good Jones is if the LT replacement isn't good.

As far as Jenkins at LT...I just don't get it. He played fine at RT for what, half a game, against a pass rush that isn't good sans Yannick? That isn't enough time to say he'd be a good RT, let alone a LT. And it's not easy to switch sides for a lineman, the footwork is all backwards. I think it was Lang or Sitton who said switching sides is like wiping with your non-dominant hand.

Really, while I like Jenkins, if he was capable of being an above average starter at LT, I think he would've played the position in college. Very, very, rare that you see a player shift outside from college to the NFL. I wouldn't bank on it. Find a way to pay Bakh.

 

[Dantés]

As the original creator of this thread and the one who made the case for keeping Jones, the situation has certainly changed with the lowered cap. Given the circumstances, I don't think it makes sense to pay him. Which is such a huge bummer.

 

[RRyder]

L tackle is no longer worth much more than a R tackle. Some of the best pass rushers in the league come from their L side. And if you watch Zadarius and others; they switch sides a lot. And we have done quite well with the R tackle. And with a guy a lot of people were lambasting. And have one or two on the side that might be able to do well also. I figure that Bak is going to cost roughly twice what Aaron Jones will cost. I think you have wishful thinking in believing we can replace him with what we have. His role is special. Not to mention King is very valuable 2nd or no. At this point, I am thinking all that money could keep The Pack intact. And I'm liking the players on this team. Some have said Preston could go. I think he is playing very well so far and would not look forward to getting rid of him because Bak is so expensive. We would just have a lot more options. But if we really could not replace Bak; then I think we will suffer elsewhere. And again, Jones is more important than you think imo.

1: Using recent contracts Bahk is going to run around 23 a year and Jones will be in the area of 15-16 so im not sure how you're getting to "twice as much"

2: Its not wishful thinking. As great as Jones is playing RBs, no matter how great, are simply more easily replaced then All Pro Tackles. And thats even before factoring in current investment into the position on the roster

 

[Dantés]

1: Using recent contracts Bahk is going to run around 23 a year and Jones will be in the area of 15-16 so im not sure how you're getting to "twice as much"

2: Its not wishful thinking. As great as Jones is playing RBs, no matter how great, are simply more easily replaced then All Pro Tackles. And thats even before factoring in current investment into the position on the roster

I would imagine he arrived at "twice as much" by figuring on Dalvin Cook money, rather than Alvin Kamara money (12.6 vs. 15).

I am going to be really interested to see if Bakhtiari absolutely insists upon Tunsil money, just because it's such an outlier, given by a moron who has been fired, and in a situation where Tunsil had the organization over a barrel.

So he got 22M. The other recent extensions for left tackles have been in the range of 14-15M. That would be Decker, Humphries, Dawkins.

Now Bakhtiari is better than those guys and deserves more. But the cap situation is also different. I would say fair value would be something like 18-19M, which would make him comfortably the 2nd highest paid LT in football.

But who knows if he would accept that or demand Tunsil money. If he demands to top the outlier at 29, I'm more inclined to just tag him.

 

[RRyder]

I would imagine he arrived at "twice as much" by figuring on Dalvin Cook money, rather than Alvin Kamara money (12.6 vs. 15).

I am going to be really interested to see if Bakhtiari absolutely insists upon Tunsil money, just because it's such an outlier, given by a moron who has been fired, and in a situation where Tunsil had the organization over a barrel.

So he got 22M. The other recent extensions for left tackles have been in the range of 14-15M. That would be Decker, Humphries, Dawkins.

Now Bakhtiari is better than those guys and deserves more. But the cap situation is also different. I would say fair value would be something like 18-19M, which would make him comfortably the 2nd highest paid LT in football.

But who knows if he would accept that or demand Tunsil money. If he demands to top the outlier at 29, I'm more inclined to just tag him.

Those are fair points. I was including the bump for actually being FA versus resigning during the season. (yes the cap is f'd thid year but there are still teams that will have cap space to drive up the price)

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think if we're re-signing Aaron, we best do it now. If he rolls for +20 TD's (he is on pace for this) which I doubt, but if he does, he'll make a case to be the highest-paid RB in the NFL at years end. If he continues to crush it, unfortunately, we'll have to let him walk as he's going to command such a large salary on the open market.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So I would let both Linsley and Bak go in order to keep our team intact. I think But we could draft heavily for the O line and would be able to sign a lot of players.

Just for the record, it's probable the Packer will end up above the cap entering next offseason without making any moves. Therefore it's not realistic to expect them to have cap space available to sign a lot of players.

L tackle is no longer worth much more than a R tackle.

That doesn't change the fact that the left tackle is protecting Rodgers' blindside. Therefore the position is definitely more important than right tackle.

But who knows if he would accept that or demand Tunsil money. If he demands to top the outlier at 29, I'm more inclined to just tag him.

As mentioned in another thread the Packers might not be able to use the franchise tag next offseason as there's no way to push the cap hit back into future seasons once the cap is expected to increase again.

I think if we're re-signing Aaron, we best do it now. If he rolls for +20 TD's (he is on pace for this) which I doubt, but if he does, he'll make a case to be the highest-paid RB in the NFL at years end.

I don't think there would be any discount re-signing Jones at this point as everyone is well aware that he's one of the top running backs in the league.

 

[gopkrs]

Just for the record, it's probable the Packer will end up above the cap entering next offseason without making any moves. Therefore it's not realistic to expect them to have cap space available to sign a lot of players.

So how can they sign Bak? or anyone? The space I was considering was the money not spent on Bak. I guess that would actually be the difference with whatever he is making this year vs. a new contract.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Just for the record, it's probable the Packer will end up above the cap entering next offseason without making any moves. Therefore it's not realistic to expect them to have cap space available to sign a lot of players.




That doesn't change the fact that the left tackle is protecting Rodgers' blindside. Therefore the position is definitely more important than right tackle.



As mentioned in another thread the Packers might not be able to use the franchise tag next offseason as there's no way to push the cap hit back into future seasons once the cap is expected to increase again.



I don't think there would be any discount re-signing Jones at this point as everyone is well aware that he's one of the top running backs in the league.

At this point we know he's not Kamara, Saquan, Zeke. But at the end of the season if he scores 20+ he's a goner.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So how can they sign Bak? or anyone? The space I was considering was the money not spent on Bak. I guess that would actually be the difference with whatever he is making this year vs. a new contract.

As mentioned repeatedly, the Packers will be approximately $8 million above the cap if it drops to $175 million for the 2021 season with the money they have already allocated towards players already under contract for next season as well as money they need to spend to fill the roster and practice squad.

That means the team needs to either release players or restructure existing deals to get under the cap in the first place.

If they want to either re-sign any of their players currently not under contract for the 2021 season or be active in free agency Gutekunst and Ball will need to create additional cap space.

At this point we know he's not Kamara, Saquan, Zeke. But at the end of the season if he scores 20+ he's a goner.

It would be expensive to re-sign Jones at this point. I don't think him putting up impressive numbers this season would result in him getting significantly more money.

 

[gopkrs]

As mentioned repeatedly, the Packers will be approximately $8 million above the cap if it drops to $175 million for the 2021 season with the money they have already allocated towards players already under contract for next season as well as money they need to spend to fill the roster and practice squad.

That means the team needs to either release players or restructure existing deals to get under the cap in the first place.

That last sentence is why you have to think about releasing Bak. He cannot make up for basically dismantling a team that looks like they play very well together. I am not optimistic that players are going to take less money than they are already under contract for and restructuring is just kicking the can down the road.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As mentioned repeatedly, the Packers will be approximately $8 million above the cap if it drops to $175 million for the 2021 season with the money they have already allocated towards players already under contract for next season as well as money they need to spend to fill the roster and practice squad.

Even at $8M over the cap, I imagine the Packers will find themselves in better shape than a lot of teams. At one time, The Eagles were projected to have a 2021 base salary number around $215 M. It is going to be very interesting to watch what happens as a result of a reduced Salary Cap. I even saw talk of the cap dropping down as low as $140 M, imagine that. I think it is pretty much a given that it will go down a substantial amount and players with expiring contracts like Aaron Jones may not get the offers they had hoped for. I also think we are going to see the largest number of high profile players we have ever seen hit the trade or free agency market as teams scramble to meet the new cap. Teams like Indy who are already in good cap shape will benefit in a buyers market.

I'm not going to shed a tear for the "reduced salaries", since in "my perfect world" all these guys would be making a lot less money then they are now. Hell, if the NFLPA would agree to it, I would be in favor of all player salaries just getting reduced by the percentage that the cap gets reduced, but that will never happen.

 

[thequick12]

1: Using recent contracts Bahk is going to run around 23 a year and Jones will be in the area of 15-16 so im not sure how you're getting to "twice as much"

2: Its not wishful thinking. As great as Jones is playing RBs, no matter how great, are simply more easily replaced then All Pro Tackles. And thats even before factoring in current investment into the position on the roster

That's obviously true and I'd hope no one is trying to argue that rb is more important than lt but my point is, I think they can have both if they are willing to lose king, linsley and williams and most of the rest of their ufas. As well as cut kirksey and maybe Wagner if you have to but I think he's more valuable as the swing, than kirksey with the emergence of Barnes and hopefully martin soon. Then you restructure Rodgers.

Everyone keeps saying dillon can replace jones...I'd feel much better saying he can replace williams, which I think he definitely can.

To replace linsley you have a ton of options between patrick, Hansen, runyun, stepaniak, and even jenkins if say you liked Patrick and runyan better at the guards.

King be tough to replace but I think he's above avg not great and Alexander is coming up too, I'd rather pay him as he seems to be on his way to great. You'd have to go cb relatively high in the draft I'd assume unless Josh jackson is the answer which doesn't seem likely. But sullivan is an rfa I believe and thus relatively inexpensive to retain and capable in the nickel role

I also don't know that jones is gonna get kamara money at this point I think he's slotting himself in between cook and kamara hopefully for Packers closer to cook

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Guessing a lot of the numbers have changed since this was put out at the end of July, but probably not all that significantly for most teams. Also, the estimates don't include the cap charges for unsigned rookies and don't adjust the carryover numbers for the change from the top 51 to to the regular season accounting numbers. When you factor those in the number of teams over the cap should go from 8 to 13. In the article overthecap thinks $175M/team would be the most optimistic scenario. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think in July there was still some hope to have more fans at games then we have actually been seeing, so that number probably will go down even more.

https://overthecap.com/nfl-asks-for-175m-2021-salary-cap/

 

[Sunshinepacker]

At this point we know he's not Kamara, Saquan, Zeke. But at the end of the season if he scores 20+ he's a goner.

He's better than Kamara, but you're right on Zeke and Barkley.

 

[thequick12]

He's better than Kamara, but you're right on Zeke and Barkley.

He's better as a rusher than kamara and I'd rather have jones than kamara but I'll say this I have never seen jones do what kamara did to the Packers after the catch