The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

[Sky King]

The whole AR is uncoachable was created and propogated by the media.

Now that it's being proven false, some are trying to rewrite reality into AR bulldozing MLF nonsense.

A bunch of hot air is what it is.

Note my signature line below. They get the weather correct most of the time though.

 

[Do7]

Note my signature line below.

Can I borrow that quote? XD

 

[Sky King]

Can I borrow that quote?

Be my guest. Multi-millions of us have the same thought.

 

[XPack]

@Sky King I agree with everything you say and have high regard for Starr, despite being too young to see him live. I have read most Packer books and coincidentally reading "America's Quarterback" now.

My rating was mostly on his QB skills compared and not on impact. I couldn't come.ip with better term than enabler at spur of moment and I blame alcohol.

 

[rmontro]

My rating was mostly on his QB skills compared and not on impact.

I get your point (alcohol fueled as it is lol), but Starr was no slouch. He led the league in passer rating four times and his career postseason passer rating still tops the record books today, which I think is absolutely astonishing considering how much the rules favor the passer game these days. Nobody's more clutch than Bart Starr.

Also, the defense contributed a lot to our last two Super Bowl wins as well, it wasn't all Favre and Rodgers by any stretch (not saying you said it was).

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as pointing the blame. I saw a recent article where Rodgers said they had to continue working on better timing.
I don’t think this part comes as a surprise, but it never comes across as “we” meaning the WR group. I didn’t take it to mean anything but the entire Offense was still partially out of rhythm. It also eludes to the fact (while not being specific in naming himself) he’s admitting to both underperforming and making adjustments to whatever affects timing. It’s obvious to me part of that is him.

Once again, I’m submitting more data that does NOT support the narrative of Rodgers pointing blame.
I don’t consider a QBs in game frustration hollering at someone as anything but frustration. If those incidents of outbursts either verbal or physical body language were implied to show he’s pointing blame at everyone but himself... then I would submit when he does NOT offer some visible correction in a missed throw or broken play? He’s blaming himself. Furthermore, In rewatching condensed Packer games throughout this season, Rodgers overwhelmingly does NOT make any jester whatsoever after broken pass plays.

The thought that came to mind watching game 1 in Chicago was, If we are judging Aaron by some limited, specific examples of “in-game” frustration, then based on that?
we should reasonably also use ALL broken pass plays to support or defend the full picture of the QB to Receiver timing issue.

 

[PackAttack12]

As far as pointing the blame. I saw a recent article where Rodgers said they had to continue working on better timing.
I don’t think this part comes as a surprise, but it never comes across as “they” meaning the WR group. I didn’t take it to mean anything but the entire Offense was still partially out of rhythm. It also eludes to the fact (while not being specific in naming himself) he’s admitting to both underperforming and making adjustments to whatever affects timing. It’s obvious to me part of that is him.

Contrary to what the haters like to portray, Rodgers always accepts blame in post game pressers and says it starts with him.

 

[OldSchool101]

Contrary to what the haters like to portray, Rodgers always accepts blame in post game pressers and says it starts with him.

Amen! The media reports remind me of the US Embassy attack in Iran just days ago. When the story first unfolded, the news clips online said our Embassy was completely overrun. I was literally sick because I remember the Iranian Hostage crisis and I feared a similar scenario, but with the worst outcome.

The truth was the terrorists took a small temporary building at the perimeter of the complex and put tires around it and lit it on fire. To make viewers think it was our Embassy, which was nothing more than publicity to get attention. When Blackhawk helicopters came out of nowhere and word that an entire Division of US troupes was coming to the aid? The rogue group that tried to breech it scurried out of there like Rats do to fire.

Lesson: Don’t believe the agenda driven media.

 

[HardRightEdge]

To a die-hard Rodgers fan, such criticism is shocking and unacceptable.

Well, I'm beyond belaboring the alternative perspective, but I'll give it one last shot. I do have one thought on another QB I might explore if I can find the data. I'll post that if I find it.

I don't consider the criticisms shocking or unacceptable. I do find them exagerated. Or maybe just plain wrong, though I'm leaving my book open on that assessment, and it is open nonetheless.

Despite being a consistent defender of Rodgers against claims that lean toward the "fall to average" or "washed up" end of the spectrum, there would be no reason to think I'm a "die hard".

I was the guy who said, prior to his 2018 extension, it would be "interesting" if he were traded. He had two cheap years left on his old contract which might have netted a hefty package of picks from a team desperate to "win now". Few expressed concern over that plate in his throwing shoulder besides me and how that might affect him going forward. No one at that time agreed a trade might be "intersting". That plate is rarely mentioned now as a possible factor in what is a decline in accuracy and velocity. Nonetheless, those declines, if they really exist and are not part of an unfamilar perspective on what goes into winning, are exaggerated.

Being 35 years old is barely relevant. That applied 15 or 30 years ago. Advances in orthopedic medicine, training, diet and friendlier rules have extended QB careers. Monster money keeps them motivated to stay at it, stay in shape, stay prepared, and stay focused. 30 years ago Rodgers might have hung around the league for a few years after that throwing shoulder injury, eventually dropped to the bench behind the next shiny new thing, and washed out after a few years. Or maybe he might have just retired and moved on to other insterests at a time when the money was not that great. Bridgewater, to take a more extreme example, would have gone the way of Theismann.

I've said before, on several occasions, that the plate in that shoulder might be affecting him on certain throws from certain platforms. The roll right or left with the cross-body rocket ball 25 yards into the middle seems to have been dropped from the repertoire. But is the plate the actual factor? Maybe he's got a game within the game that nobody wants to see and which doesn't conform to standard measures of success?

Those middle throws are the dangerous ones where balls can get picked or receivers injured. None of the receivers other Adams have a knack for protecting themselves. They all seem to be in exposed body positions after catching those middle throws and none are physical enough to make DBs reluctant to light them up. With Allison in particular, I wince, wondering on each of those middle throws if he'll get off the ground. Throwing behind may be a function of protecting them. Or in the case of the MVS throw, was Rodgers expecting him to sit down in the seam? Rodgers will go to Graham in the danger zone and they usually look pretty ugly. I would submit that Graham is not a good route runner, never has been, and that has been exposed once the athleticism declined. He's not a guy to throw open. Even so, the opening throw to Graham in this last game was spot on. Even he hears footsteps in the danger zone and dropped the ball.

All the overthrows, throwaways and balls drifting out of bounds? Perhaps that's elevated risk aversion. Job #1 in the Rodgers playbook has always been to not throw it where the other guy might get it. It's why the INT counts have always been low and the completion percentages not especially high. The risk aversion may now be elevated with a modified perspective on what turnovers mean. Having a resilient defense my contribute to that perspective. The pick in this last game was a psudo-punt where he put it up for grabs where the negative consequences are fairly low. The only pick this season where he was fooled by the defense was in the Minnesota game. That remains a rare occurrance.

It's worth considering in all this winning ugly that the standard metrics understate the true value of a turnover. One anlaytics measure says a turnover is worth about 4.5 points. I think that's a little high, but the passer rating, to take one example, may be understating the value of limiting INTs.

What's really striking, which the critics don't seem to want to acknowledge, is that with all the overthrows and throwaways, Rodgers completion percentage reflects only one missed throw per game over his career average. That's a perspective that you need to answer.

In the final analysis, I see Rodgers being a little off, not a lot. I think observers suffer from highlight-itis, as if those recollections of unworldly throws happened on every other throw, or that rocket balls to the back of the end zone were completed 100% of the time as that knucklehead analysis that made its way into these pages last season purported. No QB ever did that and none ever will.

Memory tends to harken back to brief periods of peak performance as though that was the average. I would put significant odds on Mahomes never, ever repeating the kind of performance he put up in the first 13 weeks of last season, not even close. How could you ever expect that? But it's a little odd that 3 All Pro voters thought Wilson was the best QB in the league this season while Mahomes got no votes. There's a tinge of "what's wrong with Mahomes" in that vote when there is actually nothing wrong with him at all other than any residual issue with injury, but not his play.

There are plenty of teriffic throws in this year's Rodgers highlight reel. Somebody posted a reel from a few weeks ago and that misses out on some of the best. When push comes to shove, you got a model LaFleur/Rodgers 95 yard drive, small ball execution followed by the deep shots and a score when you needed it.

Elsewhere I posted the high percentage of Red Zone run TDs this season on first and second down. While a certain percentage of posters may view Rodgers as a dimished threat, opponents do not.

In short, to paraphrase the oft-quoted Mark Twain quip, the reports of Rodgers demise are greatly exaggerated.

 

[Pugger]

Agreed, Starr was like the Brady or Montana of his day. But that happened too long ago, nobody cares (or not enough people care), they think it's ancient history, back when the pyramids were being built.

Favre piled up numbers no one had ever seen before, so he deserves his spot too. He was part of ushering in the current pass happy era.

You're right. Most of the top 100 players in that list are modern era guys in all categories. IMO it really isn't indicative of the best players in league history when you discard most of those who played before the advent of television.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Contrary to what the haters like to portray, Rodgers always accepts blame in post game pressers and says it starts with him.

Almost always. Which early season game last season did Rodgers have a sub-standard game and took no responsibility at all for the loss, blaming the game plan and I can't recall what else? Minnesota in Week 2? It was that presser that sent the McCarthy-Rodgers schism story into overdrive.

That presser was a very bad look for him. He seemed to get the message and did not repeat that poor display. He may have been right in fact, but it's something that should not have been don. If McCarthy needed a public push out the door from the face of franchise, leave that for later in the season after playoff chances are dead. Or just take it up with Murphy and put all the cards on the table.

My murky memory seem to recall a game in the recent past that the Packers won where in the following press conference Rodgers commented that the 450 yards of offense could have been 600 and he could have completed 20 passes Adams who was open all day, and blown the doors off the thing were it not for the play calling. That was bizarre, untoward, and a futher sign of trouble to come.

I tire of all the black-and-white analysis, guys wearing white hats or black hats, heros or bums, GOATs or also-rans, statements of fact where there is obvious nuance, bold predictions of things where the basis for prediction is weak.

There's no point in countering that stuff with your own. Life and football is not debate club, where you can slip bad data or an unfounded assertions past the opponent. Oh, wait...this is debate club!

 

[Pugger]

Not discounting what Starr did...but our game was based on the run. Hornung and Taylor were the stars of the offence along with McGee. Plus he had Lombardi scheming for him. Even during his peak, Unitas, Tittle etc were considered better than him and had better yards and TDs.

He's definitely a legend, but I'd rate Favre and AR over him.

But if you really needed to which of the 3 would you take in their primes? Starr had a ridiculous 8-1 record in the post season. In the Ice Bowl it was Bart's throwing in those terrible conditions in the final drive that sealed the deal. Hornung, Taylor and McGee were long gone. Lombardi wasn't calling the plays on Sunday back then. During the week they both collaborated on the game plan.

Career postseason statistics: 130-213, 1753 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT; 104.8 passer rating

Simply put, Bart Starr is the winningest quarterback in NFL playoff history, in terms of both postseason winning percentage and championships won.

Starr has led the Green Bay Packers to five NFL championships, in 1961, 1962, 1965, 1966, and 1967. The final two championships came in the first ever Super Bowls. Starr earned the MVP trophy in both games.

Starr participated in just a single postseason loss, by virtue of the mighty 1960 Philadelphia Eagles. Still, this game wasn't decided until the game's final play, when Chuck Bednarik tackled Hall of Fame running back Jim Taylor on the eight-yard line.

Starr holds the record for highest career postseason passer rating: 104.3. He topped 100 in five of his nine games. His career Super Bowl passer rating is 106.0.

Even more incredibly, he threw just three interceptions in his nine playoff games! His 1.41 interception percentage would be the 15th best regular season total in NFL history. When factoring in the quality of the defenses that Starr faced, his achievement is one of the most impressive in NFL history. It is a record that will likely never be broken.

Tom Brady came close. After his first ten playoff games, all victories, he had thrown three interceptions in 331 passes. His 0.90 mark was significantly better than Starr's career mark. Then he threw nine interceptions in his next 264 passes, still an impressive rate. But 12 interceptions in 595 pass attempts? Not even close to Starr.

 

[PackAttack12]

Almost always. Which early season game last season did Rodgers have a sub-standard game and took no responsibility at all for the loss, blaming the game plan and I can't recall what else? Minnesota in Week 2? It was that presser that sent the McCarthy-Rodgers schism story into overdrive.

That presser was a very bad look for him. He seemed to get the message and did not repeat that poor display. He may have been right in fact, but it's something that should not have been don. If McCarthy needed a public push out the door from the face of franchise, leave that for later in the season after playoff chances are dead. Or just take it up with Murphy and put all the cards on the table.

My murky memory seem to recall a game in the recent past that the Packers won where in the following press conference Rodgers commented that the 450 yards of offense could have been 600 and he could have completed 20 passes Adams who was open all day, and blown the doors off the thing were it not for the play calling. That was bizarre, untoward, and a futher sign of trouble to come.

I tire of all the black-and-white analysis, guys wearing white hats or black hats, heros or bums, GOATs or also-rans, statements of fact where there is obvious nuance, bold predictions of things where the basis for prediction is weak.

There's no point in countering that stuff with your own. Life and football is not debate club, where you can slip bad data or an unfounded assertions past the opponent. Oh, wait...this is debate club!

I think you might be referring to the Buffalo game where he said something to the effect of “we should have scored 45 on this team today”. You’re correct, it wasn’t a great look.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think you might be referring to the Buffalo game where he said something to the effect of “we should have scored 45 on this team today”. You’re correct, it wasn’t a great look.

Any thoughts on the rest of that post? Or just the part that supports your argument?

 

[gopkrs]

Mcgee was still a Packer and had a great Super Bowl I Pugger

 

[PackAttack12]

I think you might be referring to the Buffalo game where he said something to the effect of “we should have scored 45 on this team today”. You’re correct, it wasn’t a great look.

You’re right about “almost always”. He hasn’t batted a thousand. And there’s been some questionable moments.

 

[Ogsponge]

Point #1 we are 13-3 with a bye

Point #2 Rodgers needs to be better

Point #3 WR’s need to be better

Point #4 2 and 3 are not mutually exclusive

Point #5 How good could this team be if 2 & 3 start to occur at the same time

Point #6 you guys have been arguing for 250+ posts since the Detroit game when the majority of you agree

Point #7 and it’s worth repeating, we are 13-3 with a bye with a 1st year head coach, a QB not playing his best, the WR’s not playing their best and a fairly average defense that shows flashes of brilliance but is just as likely to falter.

think about that, combine all of that and you simply don’t end up at 13-3 with bye. It honestly has been a miracle season. I have both enjoyed and fretted over every minute of it because with a 1st year head coach I was expecting 9-7 at best because 1st year head coaches simply don’t win games very often.

Anyway, Go Pack Go!

 

[AmishMafia]

Lesson: Don’t believe the agenda driven media.

Nor should you listen to a biased agenda driven fan base.

Nor should you accept the heroes of the past are infallible.

Contrary to what the haters like to portray, Rodgers always accepts blame in post game pressers and says it starts with him.

That's great. But he needs to be that leader on the field during the game. When it matters.

 

[HardRightEdge]

On the subject of Starr, the idea that he was a game manager on a team that won with the running game and defense is not an entirely accurate portrayal when you get to the 1966 championship seasons in the context of how the game was played at that time.

Consider the offensive stats from 1966:

Taylor and Horning were in decline. The running game totaled 1,673 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. The passing game, with some chip-in from Bratkowski in a couple of injury relief appearances, totaled 2,831 yards.

Starr was the model of effeciiency with a 62.2% completion percentage on 9.0 yards per attempt in a game where most throwing was downfield. Of course in those days you could maul the receiver until the ball was thrown at him, if it was thrown at him, which did not lend itself to the short passing game which immediately took off after the Mel Blount chuck rule was installed. Without that rule you don't get the West Coast offense.

Starr's 105 passer rating that season was unheard of in that era.

It was unquestionably a season where the passing game stirred the offensive drink. I remember commentators with short memories (a chronic problem throughout the ages) saying the Lombardi offense at it's core is a passing offense. It wasn't, but then it was.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Point #1 we are 13-3 with a bye

Point #2 Rodgers needs to be better

Point #3 WR’s need to be better

Point #4 2 and 3 are not mutually exclusive

Point #5 How good could this team be if 2 & 3 start to occur at the same time

Point #6 you guys have been arguing for 250+ posts since the Detroit game when the majority of you agree

Point #7 and it’s worth repeating, we are 13-3 with a bye with a 1st year head coach, a QB not playing his best, the WR’s not playing their best and a fairly average defense that shows flashes of brilliance but is just as likely to falter.

think about that, combine all of that and you simply don’t end up at 13-3 with bye. It honestly has been a miracle season. I have both enjoyed and fretted over every minute of it because with a 1st year head coach I was expecting 9-7 at best because 1st year head coaches simply don’t win games very often.

Anyway, Go Pack Go!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here's something to chew on, developed using pro-football-reference.com's play finder.

Earlier I did a breakdown on Seattle and Wilson's dismal performance from 1st. and 10 on SF's 12 yard line with the Division on the line. So I took a look at how he did from 12 yards in over the entire season.

He completed 23 of 44, 52.3%, with 16 TDs, no interceptions, and no sacks. Average play position was the 6.2 yard line. Clearly much better than last week's series would indicate. It was feast or famine, though. When not throwing TDs, it was 7 of 28 with 3 first downs.

Compare to Aaron Rodgers from the same distances:

27 of 44, 61.4 %, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 sack. Average play distance was 5.5 yards. It may be worth noting the two INTs were the game ender against Philly from the 3 yard line, the one that bounced off MVS, probably interference that is rarely called in those situations. The other was Shepherd's flip in the air which went some ways, along with muffing a punt, toward getting him cut.

In any case, when not throwing a TD or those excusable picks, he's 15 of 30 with 3 first downs when not scoring. The fewer TDs is compensated for by moving the ball closer with more completions and gaining a more favorable rushing position. The passer rating suffers in the comparison but the effeciency is fairly comparable if we take out the INTs thrown to guys who are gone or lost their starting job. On a pure accuracy level, the big bone of contention, Rodgers has shown better in the very short field.

Backing up to the full Red Zone, passes from 20 yards or more:

Wilson: 46 of 92, 50.0% completions, 25 TDs, 1 INT, 4.2 yds per attempt, 2 sacks. In addition to the 25 TDs there were 10 additional first downs. Passer rating = 96.4.

Rodgers: 51 of 85, 60.0% completions, 17 TDs, the same 2 INTs and 1 sack from closer range, 4.1 yards per attempt. In addition to the 17 TDs there were 12 additional 1st. downs. Passer rating = 99.1.

I've tried to go some way in explaining throughout the year that Packer "winning ugly" has been accomplished primarily by very good Red Zone performance on both sides of the ball along with turnover differential. The Packers have scored TDs on 64% of their Red Zone trips, slipping to the 8th. spot after last week but still less than 1% behind the 4th. spot; Seattle is barely behind at 63.3%.

In the final analysis, Rodgers has been more accurate and efficient in the Red Zone than Russell Wilson where the rubber frequently meets the road. Shocking. At least in this section of the field, the problem in the comparison is not Rodgers accuracy, . It's not throwing enough Red Zone TDs. Of course when your RBs are taking it in on first or second down, there's not quite as much opportunity.

 

[Pugger]

Mcgee was still a Packer and had a great Super Bowl I Pugger

Yes he was great in that SB game, but most of the time in his final 3 seasons in GB he wasn't as effective as he was earlier in his career.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McGeMa00.htm

 

[gopkrs]

Well yeah, the high hurdler Boyd Dowler took over most McGee's receiving duties. But you said he was long gone. A bit premature.

 

[PackinMSP]

For this discussion,

Although there are objective things we can look at like:

Aaron Rodgers hitting his mid -late 30s in age
Having aging 30+ year old TEs
Having only one significant WR option (Davante) that was signicantly invested in (i.e. meaning besides a late round, like round 5 or later or undrafted)
Aaron's numbers have gone down since the Barr hit


I think ultimately, the big outlier is that this is ARs first new offense in a decade so he kind of had a "free pass" this first year

And obviously until more is invested as receiving options, we can't put too much stock in his regression

 

[OldSchool101]

Nor should you listen to a biased agenda driven fan base.

True to a degree. To extrapolate a bit. We should always keep things in perspective.

That said, we shouldn’t take the position of “apologist“ for fans supporting the Captain of their team in their own fan forum against an over emphasis of unsupported contempt on the face of the organization. Especially when said Captain has an overwhelming effect on its recent success.

Even if every last derogatory claim against Rodgers was proven true (which is mostly based on one-sided hearsay) I’d submit that the old saying still goes..
the end justifies the means.