The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Sunshinepacker]

I like Aaron Jones, but the reality and issue is that guys with his skillset, being young and multidimensional will almost be a "dime a dozen" soon I think. Not saying that he isn't very good.

Offenses in college are already featuring runningbacks that should/can catch...and that's why you will see a guy like Dillon (orinically) being less used. Because no one is looking for a bell cow or Jerome Bettis type anymore

So maybe it won't be "worth" spending all that money to resign Aaron Jones if you could potentially find someone YOUNGER and with less miles/wear & tear in the NFL draft???

That's the way I see it

Jones leads the league in YPC, is 5th in rushing yards, and is one of the best 2 pass catching running backs in the league. That's literally impossible to classify as "dime a dozen". He's also only 26.

The Packers should absolutely re-sign him if the deal is reasonable but the cap probably won't allow it. Having the equivalent of Corey Dillon on the team will probably be enough next year but let's not pretend Jones isn't an elite RB just to feel better about him leaving the team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Jones leads the league in YPC, is 5th in rushing yards, and is one of the best 2 pass catching running backs in the league. That's literally impossible to classify as "dime a dozen". He's also only 26.

The Packers should absolutely re-sign him if the deal is reasonable but the cap probably won't allow it. Having the equivalent of Corey Dillon on the team will probably be enough next year but let's not pretend Jones isn't an elite RB just to feel better about him leaving the team.

I love Jones and agree that he is no doubt one of the top 5 backs in Football right now. That said, I'm torn between what to do. I see why either decision makes sense. I keep sliding back to the history of many of the top backs like Jones and what happens when teams pay them huge money. As well as pulling a "Mason Captain Crosby theory" and think "you can get backs that might not be as good, but for the money, a better deal for the whole team."

Let's say Jones costs us $14M/year, what players/positions do we cut or forgo improving on to justify/afford it?

Jones would hate it, but the middle ground might be to Franchise tag him. This gets one more year out of him and hopefully puts the Packers in a better cap position to possibly sign him to a longer term deal next season.

 

[Poppa San]

I could go with 3 years $40m with $10m bonus, $4m year 1 guaranteed, $5m roster bonus and $8m year two with a huge year 3. Maybe guarantee the $8m when you pay the roster bonus.

 

[PackinMSP]

Yeah a lot of RBs stop producing after getting paid LOL. I am not saying that that will be Aaron Jones, but it happens.

The other fact is that, with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are still going to be a "Pass first" team PERIOD. Even if it's just 51% Pass, 49% Run.


Aaron Jones won't ever be like a 250 carry guy and his body can't take that, but we don't NEED a runningback that can do that.

Is he a good pass catching RB? Yes. But let's not act like he's the next Marshall Faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson LOL

He's good, but he is NOT like Marshall Faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson type where he is just THAT GOOD to where you have to keep him for that duo threat ability.

So who's to say we can't just draft a guy with a similar skillset...obviously will not be as good "at first" but can develop down the line?

Aaron Jones is a 1000yd rusher with ~400 pass catching yards

BUT... he is NOT

Marshall Faulk who was like 12000yd rusher with ~600+ pass catching yards

similar YPC and averages

I would pay Marshall Faulk $14/MM annually easy not Aaron JOnes

 

[tynimiller]

Good idea. However and I could be wrong, but it seems there really aren't a lot of trades made during that time period. I think if teams sense that a player is going to be cut lose, they are inclined to wait. So even if the Packers do find a team to trade with, they would probably be lucky to get a 6th for Preston. I also think that depending on the cap, this could be a total buyers market in Free Agency. Those few teams that are cap fat, will have the pick of the crop and probably after some of the fat calves are signed, some real bargains will be had. Players like Smith might have to sign one year deals for whatever they can get.

I concur, the likelihood of a suitor goes up if the cap is set possibly as high as 195 instead of the 175 which was circulating and you aren't getting more than a 5th, most likely a 6th but I'm not opposed to a 7th even.

 

[easyk83]

I love Jones and agree that he is no doubt one of the top 5 backs in Football right now. That said, I'm torn between what to do. I see why either decision makes sense. I keep sliding back to the history of many of the top backs like Jones and what happens when teams pay them huge money. As well as pulling a "Mason Captain Crosby theory" and think "you can get backs that might not be as good, but for the money, a better deal for the whole team."

Let's say Jones costs us $14M/year, what players/positions do we cut or forgo improving on to justify/afford it?

Jones would hate it, but the middle ground might be to Franchise tag him. This gets one more year out of him and hopefully puts the Packers in a better cap position to possibly sign him to a longer term deal next season.

When you factor in what we are paying Rodgers(36,352,000) Bakh(21 cap hit of 19,447,000) and Adams(16,850,000) how can we justify paying out to Aaron Jones right now? I mean you're looking at a cap hit of 72.65M, for three offensive players, or 40% of the cap focused primarily on our passing game. That is out of a total salary cap for 2021 of 175M. We simply cant justify paying Jones, I hope he has a great career moving forward but its just not a good fit for us especially if Dillon keeps producing like he did on Sunday night.

 

[easyk83]

If we give Jones 14M you're looking at almost 50% of the cap devoted to 4 offensive players, where does that leave us when it's time to extend Davante Adams? Or for that matter in a couple years when guys like Jaire and Darnell are needing extensions. Extending Jones is how Dan Snyder runs a football team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I concur, the likelihood of a suitor goes up if the cap is set possibly as high as 195 instead of the 175

I know we were talking about Preston Smith, but if the Cap does go up to 195, I think there is a much better chance that we resign Jones and Preston is still around as well.

 

[tynimiller]

I know we were talking about Preston Smith, but if the Cap does go up to 195, I think there is a much better chance that we resign Jones and Preston is still around as well.

Honestly, I don't believe so. Preston's play has dropped significantly and I think Gute and Co see the future in Gary and much better use of that savings elsewhere. Does it become more feasible, yes, I however am in the camp it doesn't change the likelihood.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Honestly, I don't believe so. Preston's play has dropped significantly and I think Gute and Co see the future in Gary and much better use of that savings elsewhere. Does it become more feasible, yes, I however am in the camp it doesn't change the likelihood.

He has been playing better, but you could be right. If they need the money and Gary is still getting better, he is a very expensive luxury.

Also, I was thinking the savings was only $8M if they cut him. Am I reading this wrong and it would actually be $12M? If that is the case, no brainer.

Base Salary: $6,850,000
Roster Bonus: $4,500,000
Workout Bonus: $ 650,000

Savings if cut by 3rd day of new league year: $12 M


Preston Smith Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

 

[longtimefan]

I’d rather keep Corey then Jones..

Corey is the web of that line .. yes hurt (and jones seems to be out as much as Corey) but when he is there , he is helping Rodgers with play calls on rpo
Could some else do it? Maybe but be Jax it was horrible

but if there was a coin toss between the 2 Corey stays

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’d rather keep Corey then Jones..

Corey is the web of that line .. yes hurt (and jones seems to be out as much as Corey) but when he is there , he is helping Rodgers with play calls on rpo
Could some else do it? Maybe but be Jax it was horrible

but if there was a coin toss between the 2 Corey stays

Corey?

 

[tynimiller]

Corey?

You know the perennial starter we've had for years....

 

[longtimefan]

Corey?

?

 

[sschind]

Corey?

Maybe Professor Irwin Corey? But he has been dead for a few years now.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

?

Nevermind.....I must have needed another cup of coffee.....just figured out you were talking about Corey Lindsley. Honestly, I wouldn't have known his first name had you asked me to tell you without looking it up. Thought you might be referring to Williams and maybe a nickname of his.

 

[longtimefan]

Nevermind.....I must have needed another cup of coffee.....just figured out you were talking about Corey Lindsley. Honestly, I wouldn't have known his first name had you asked me to tell you without looking it up. Thought you might be referring to Williams and maybe a nickname of his.

Lol

 

[Mondio]

I believe someone's brain dun farted a big one.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If we give Jones 14M you're looking at almost 50% of the cap devoted to 4 offensive players, where does that leave us when it's time to extend Davante Adams? Or for that matter in a couple years when guys like Jaire and Darnell are needing extensions. Extending Jones is how Dan Snyder runs a football team.

You renegotiate or cut players. Franchising Jones makes the most sense but everything you mention is why I disagreed with drafting a RB in the second. Packers needed a high upside corner but now they're probably going to have to re-sign King. Running backs are probably the easiest late round, impact players to find. Now, the Packers will have to spend on an underwhelming King or start, who, Sullivan at corner next year? Teams should generally draft expensive positions early so they have replacements for guys they can't/shouldn't re-sign.

 

[longtimefan]

You renegotiate or cut players. Franchising Jones makes the most sense but everything you mention is why I disagreed with drafting a RB in the second. Packers needed a high upside corner but now they're probably going to have to re-sign King. Running backs are probably the easiest late round, impact players to find. Now, the Packers will have to spend on an underwhelming King or start, who, Sullivan at corner next year? Teams should generally draft expensive positions early so they have replacements for guys they can't/shouldn't re-sign.

Underwhelming?

He had surgery not long b4 season started, took him a while to get back.

I say he gets resigned

 

[RRyder]

You renegotiate or cut players. Franchising Jones makes the most sense but everything you mention is why I disagreed with drafting a RB in the second. Packers needed a high upside corner but now they're probably going to have to re-sign King. Running backs are probably the easiest late round, impact players to find. Now, the Packers will have to spend on an underwhelming King or start, who, Sullivan at corner next year? Teams should generally draft expensive positions early so they have replacements for guys they can't/shouldn't re-sign.

Sorry but you kinda just made the case NOT to resign Jones. RBs are simply easier to find impact guys (the Packers haven't allready "potentially" drafted one) and King is going to be cheaper to retain given the market will likely be dryer for mid level guys then top their ones.

I also don't agree with "underwhelming" in regards to King. Hes actually a pretty good corner who simply catches every little bit a flack people can muster. Hes not a Pro Bowler but still pretty good

As for the bolded I have no idea why anyone thinks franchising Jones makes the most sense. It makes less sense then really any other option when it locks in a big cap number (10.2 i believe for RBs next year) versus being able to back load a deal in a year when the Packers are allready needing to save every dime they can

 

[tynimiller]

I also don't agree with "underwhelming" in regards to King. Hes actually a pretty good corner who simply catches every little bit a flack people can muster. Hes not a Pro Bowler but still pretty good

I concur with King not being as bad as folks claim, but he also isn't worth borderline or actually #1 CB money, which I sense he'll find somewhere not in Green Bay.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I also don't agree with "underwhelming" in regards to King. Hes actually a pretty good corner who simply catches every little bit a flack people can muster. Hes not a Pro Bowler but still pretty good

I like King when healthy. I actually think he is better than most give him credit for too. He isn't a top CB, but he isn't a bad one either.

Now the problem. What do you pay a guy that has average playing about 10 games a season? I hope the Packers can resign him, they need him. However, I don't think they will pay him as much as he might get from a team that is more cap flush and is willing to overlook his injuries.

 

[tynimiller]

I like King when healthy. I actually think he is better than most give him credit for too. He isn't a top CB, but he isn't a bad one either.

Now the problem. What do you pay a guy that has average playing about 10 games a season? I hope the Packers can resign him, they need him. However, I don't think they will pay him as much as he might get from a team that is more cap flush and is willing to overlook his injuries.

You know with the news that the 175M cap figure touted for a while may not be as certain and it could be as high as 195M I started re-visiting and thinking just how or what is the best path forward for our team fiscally...

It would be VERY tight...but IF Gute and Co. wanted there "might be" enough there if say we cut Wagner, Lowry, Kirksey and Preston for fiscal savings...to resign Linsley, Williams and King. The kicker is resigning 2 of those 3 shouldn't be too difficult if the cap figure is back up towards 190M + the cut moves...but squeezing all 3 may very well be too much of a dream scenario.

However, the more I contemplate and think on it the more I truly think the argument is valid that Linsley and King resigned assist this team as a whole more than Jones resigned. A #2 CB King no question is when in there and that is tough and not guaranteed in the draft. Linsley is a Pro Bowl caliber C and we are still searching for that RT guy...

 

[RRyder]

I concur with King not being as bad as folks claim, but he also isn't worth borderline or actually #1 CB money, which I sense he'll find somewhere not in Green Bay.

I think the market for a mid tier guy like King is going to be A LOT barer then people think