The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the market for a mid tier guy like King is going to be A LOT barer then people think

Will depend on where the Cap ends up. Problem with Free Agency and especially in this upcoming market is an agreed upon value and if its pretty far off, you have to let the player walk without a contract. Now maybe the Packers will say to his agent "We will pay Kevin "X amount, but let him go field other offers and get back to us". Seems like once they are out the door, not many of them come back. I don't see the Packers signing King before he tests the market.

 

[Poppa San]

Nevermind.....I must have needed another cup of coffee.....just figured out you were talking about Corey Lindsley. Honestly, I wouldn't have known his first name had you asked me to tell you without looking it up. Thought you might be referring to Williams and maybe a nickname of his.

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[RRyder]

Will depend on where the Cap ends up. Problem with Free Agency and especially in this upcoming market is an agreed upon value and if its pretty far off, you have to let the player walk without a contract. Now maybe the Packers will say to his agent "We will pay Kevin "X amount, but let him go field other offers and get back to us". Seems like once they are out the door, not many of them come back. I don't see the Packers signing King before he tests the market.

I agree it comes down to where the cap ends up being.

I disagree that once we let them field offers not many come back. Generally speaking when the Packers have done that they never offered a deal in the first place and just let them walk

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And even if he was able to do so, replacing Jones with Dillon would only be maintaining status quo...when we actually want to be improving our team.

It's unrealistic to expect the running game to be better next season than this one with Jones and Williams headed for free agency and extremely limited cap space available.

Tonyan is possibly playing himself out of GB as well.

The Packers will most likely be able to retain Tonyan by offering him a second round tender for less than $4 million for next season.

Also, I was thinking the savings was only $8M if they cut him. Am I reading this wrong and it would actually be $12M? If that is the case, no brainer.

Base Salary: $6,850,000
Roster Bonus: $4,500,000
Workout Bonus: $ 650,000

Savings if cut by 3rd day of new league year: $12 M


Preston Smith Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

If the Packers cut Preston the move would result in dead money of $8 million counting against the cap (the prorated portion of his signing bonus for 2021 and '22). Therefore the cap savings by releasing him would be $8 millilon.

With him being due a $4 million roster bonus on the third day of the league year the Packers would make the move before that or otherwise could only save $4 million in cap space for 2021 by moving on from him later.

 

[tynimiller]

It's unrealistic to expect the running game to be better next season than this one with Jones and Williams headed for free agency and extremely limited cap space available.



The Packers will most likely be able to retain Tonyan by offering him a second round tender for less than $4 million for next season.



If the Packers cut Preston the move would result in dead money of $8 million counting against the cap (the prorated portion of his signing bonus for 2021 and '22). Therefore the cap savings by releasing him would be $8 millilon.

With him being due a $4 million roster bonus on the third day of the league year the Packers would make the move before that or otherwise could only save $4 million in cap space for 2021 by moving on from him later.

Oh I know his cost...but the crazy thing is if the cap stays around 175 even that 4M is tough to find. That may come down to him or Jamaal type decision which I dont want us to have to do, both should be retained IMO.

 

[longtimefan]

Oh I know his cost...but the crazy thing is if the cap stays around 175 even that 4M is tough to find. That may come down to him or Jamaal type decision which I dont want us to have to do, both should be retained IMO.

It won’t be 175

it will be higher

 

[GleefulGary]

King is pretty average. He gets targeted a lot, and usually his guy is open.

 

[longtimefan]

King is pretty average. He gets targeted a lot, and usually his guy is open.

I think he is suffering from injury

he had surgery and may not have helped fully

 

[Dantés]

I think he is suffering from injury

he had surgery and may not have helped fully

Yeah, he doesn't seem to be playing at 100%. Which brings up the other basic issue with him.

If the Packers could bring him back cheap on a one year deal, knowing that injuries are limiting him this year, I would be fine with it.

But he pretty clearly should not be a candidate for a long term extension and I won't lose any sleep if he walks.

 

[longtimefan]

Yeah, he doesn't seem to be playing at 100%. Which brings up the other basic issue with him.

If the Packers could bring him back cheap on a one year deal, knowing that injuries are limiting him this year, I would be fine with it.

But he pretty clearly should not be a candidate for a long term extension and I won't lose any sleep if he walks.

He had surgery..cant recall if it was right before season started? Not even sure what type...but I know (Gray?) let it slip out

 

[Dantés]

He had surgery..cant recall if it was right before season started? Not even sure what type...but I know (Gray?) let it slip out

A modest one year deal might be in everyone's best interest.

Give him a chance to re-establish his value and hit UFA healthier.

Give the Packers a bridge year to develop a successor.

Because if the current King is who he is, he's borderline unplayable for a team with winning aspirations.

 

[Dantés]

Here are the cap casualty candidates for the Packers:

• Preston Smith (8M)
• Christian Kirksey (6M)
• Adrian Amos (4.55M)
• Ricky Wagner (4.25M)
• Billy Turner (3.55M)
• Dean Lowry (3.3M)

Who are you most/least willing to see them cut?

If it's me, I would stack them this way:

1. Kirksey
2. Smith
3. Lowry
4. Wagner
5. Turner
6. Amos

There's a big gap for me between 3 and 4, and another big gap between 5 and 6.

That is to say, I think the savings are totally worth it for Kirksey, Smith, and Lowry considering how they've played.

I'm less eager to let go of quality offensive linemen, but I think the Packers could be OK, especially if it's just one or the other.

And I really don't want to see Amos go at all. Much like his work alongside Eddie Jackson in Chicago, I think Amos' steadiness and reliability has had a part in allowing Savage to emerge and thrive.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Sorry but you kinda just made the case NOT to resign Jones. RBs are simply easier to find impact guys (the Packers haven't allready "potentially" drafted one) and King is going to be cheaper to retain given the market will likely be dryer for mid level guys then top their ones.

I also don't agree with "underwhelming" in regards to King. Hes actually a pretty good corner who simply catches every little bit a flack people can muster. Hes not a Pro Bowler but still pretty good

As for the bolded I have no idea why anyone thinks franchising Jones makes the most sense. It makes less sense then really any other option when it locks in a big cap number (10.2 i believe for RBs next year) versus being able to back load a deal in a year when the Packers are allready needing to save every dime they can

King has been healthy for two seasons. Last year he was good. This year he's been picked on consistently. I'm not arguing he's terrible, I'm arguing that drafting a high upside corner in round 2 or 3 would have made more sense for the Packers.

 

[Dantés]

King has been healthy for two seasons. Last year he was good. This year he's been picked on consistently. I'm not arguing he's terrible, I'm arguing that drafting a high upside corner in round 2 or 3 would have made more sense for the Packers.

I think it's pretty debatable that King was good last year. He had good moments, but he had really bad ones too, and I feel like the latter outweighed the former.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think it's pretty debatable that King was good last year. He had good moments, but he had really bad ones too, and I feel like the latter outweighed the former.

I agree, I doubt King proves himself worth whatever it's gonna cost to sign him this off-season.

 

[Dantés]

I agree, I doubt King proves himself worth whatever it's gonna cost to sign him this off-season.

What if, hypothetically, he would take a deal for like 1/3M?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

King has been healthy for two seasons. Last year he was good. This year he's been picked on consistently. I'm not arguing he's terrible, I'm arguing that drafting a high upside corner in round 2 or 3 would have made more sense for the Packers.

While that sounds great, are you familiar with the Packers recent draft history with CB's? With Alexander and King being the only exceptions, its been pretty bad. So simply saying "spend a 2nd or 3rd" only guarantees one thing, that you will spend less money.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

What if, hypothetically, he would take a deal for like 1/3M?

Then I have vastly underestimated the intelligence of NFL GMs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Oh I know his cost...but the crazy thing is if the cap stays around 175 even that 4M is tough to find. That may come down to him or Jamaal type decision which I dont want us to have to do, both should be retained IMO.

If the Packers plan to release Preston they need to make the move before the start of the league year. It doesn't make any sense to pay him a $4 million roster bonus in March to move on from him later before the start of the season.

King is pretty average. He gets targeted a lot, and usually his guy is open.

Actually King gets targeted less than Alexander on a per game basis.

 

[Dantés]

Actually King gets targeted less than Alexander on a per game basis.

Is that true on a per snap basis, or is that because Jaire has played ~230 more snaps this year?

 

[thequick12]

I think the emergence of aj dillon makes it an even better situation to resign aaron jones...if you can get him for like 3 years 12 million per.

With dillon as a very capable work horse and cheap you can maximize jones' touches. Increasing the likelihood he stays healthy and explosive, while youre paying him big money.

But having both of those guys allows you to do so much while keeping the same players on the field. They can both catch and run routes better than an average rb. Jones you can split out wide, dillon could lineup in a te hb or fb spot. You could go five wide. Tonyan can play in slot out wide or inline. Lazard could lineup as a te or in backfield and is a legit blocker. Adams has lined up in backfield.

Adams and Lazard at wr, tonyan at te with Jones and dillon at rb smh that's not even really fair to the defense especially when they don't have time to make substitutions. If they go big Rodgers kills em in the passing game, if they go small dillon runs over them and jones runs around em

 

[GleefulGary]

If the Packers plan to release Preston they need to make the move before the start of the league year. It doesn't make any sense to pay him a $4 million roster bonus in March to move on from him later before the start of the season.



Actually King gets targeted less than Alexander on a per game basis.

I have a hard time believing that. Alexander rarely gets thrown to. I wonder if that’s some stat counter that doesn’t know much about zone and responsibilities.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Is that true on a per snap basis, or is that because Jaire has played ~230 more snaps this year?

I have a hard time believing that. Alexander rarely gets thrown to. I wonder if that’s some stat counter that doesn’t know much about zone and responsibilities.

According to Pro Football Reference Alexander has been targeted 76 times this season (once every 10.9 snaps). On the other hand they list King with a total of 46 targets (once every 12.8 snaps).

I think the emergence of aj dillon makes it an even better situation to resign aaron jones...if you can get him for like 3 years 12 million per.

If Dillon proves capable of being a decent starter there's absolutely no reason to spend big bucks to re-sign Jones.

 

[GleefulGary]

According to Pro Football Reference Alexander has been targeted 76 times this season (once every 10.9 snaps). On the other hand they list King with a total of 46 targets (once every 12.8 snaps).

That does not seem to match what I’ve seen in the games. Jaire pretty much never gets thrown on, let alone every 11 snaps. Would guess some of the discrepancies between stat sites is zone coverage and lack of knowing how to count it.

 

[Sanguine camper]

With Bakhtiari out for what looks like at least half the season next year, cutting o lineman just became unlikely. I would have no problem getting rid of Kirksey and Lowry. They can be easily replaced for less money. Preston Smith will shine again if he isn't made to drop back in coverage so much. I don't see how dropping a guy back in coverage who weighs 265 pounds and can get after the passer makes much sense. Keep Smith and get rid of Petine.