Ted Thompson Era Should Be Over

[Sanguine camper]

Capers has shown in 2010 that when he had talent he put together a very good defense. When talent is lacking, his defenses reflect the lack of talent and they collapse against good quarterbacks. Capers is no magician, he isn't able to take poor talent and form good defenses from it. Does that make him a poor coach? No: It just means he's no miracle worker. I think the first half vs second half performance stats actually provides evidence that Capers can devise a game plan to hide the lack of talent for at least 2 quarters. It shows he may be overachieving given his lack of talent. You can't coach speed! A big problem with his defenses is that too many players are too slow to play well on the NFL. Gunter vs Julio Jones is typical of the quandary that Capers faces. The Packers have had huge gaps in talent on Capers' defenses since 2010 and that should reflect more on TT than Dom. Firing Capers won't solve the Packers problem of waayy too many high draft pick busts on the defense.

 

[Dantés]

PFF graded Hayward pretty high during his time with the Packers (91.7 in 2012, 81.3 in '14 and 84.7 in '15) which compares favorably to his first season with the Chargers (88.9).

I understand Capers used him mostly in the slot and not on opposing #1 receivers but he performed at a pretty high level in Green Bay as well.

This will probably come across like I'm just dismissing information that doesn't agree with me, but honestly I don't care much about PFF grades. I think their advanced stats are great, and I appreciate their contribution as a piece of the puzzle. But their actual player grades strike me time and again as being deeply flawed (like when Rodgers went 18/27 for 315 yards, 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions against the Bears and received a negative grade back in 2014, IIRC).

This would be case in point. Those who followed how Hayward was playing in GB and then in SD, and what he was asked to do, know that there was a big jump. He was 2nd in the league in snaps spent shadowing #1 wide receivers in man coverage, he allowed 1 TD, he picked off 7 passes, and he permitted a passer rating of only 50. That is a big jump in performance. PFF grades might not suggest much of a difference, but I think Packer fans who are honest with themselves will admit that he wasn't doing anything remotely like that when he was in Green Bay.

Now you may put a lot of stock in PFF grades, and that just might be a place where we differ. But I assure you I won't be citing them when they conveniently agree with me. I just don't think they're very reliable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

PFF graded Hayward pretty high during his time with the Packers (91.7 in 2012, 81.3 in '14 and 84.7 in '15) which compares favorably to his first season with the Chargers (88.9).

I understand Capers used him mostly in the slot and not on opposing #1 receivers but he performed at a pretty high level in Green Bay as well.

I kind of view the Hayward thing as part hindsight and part foresight. At this time last year, the Packers were pretty comfortable with the young group that they had in the secondary and couldn't justify or see the need to spend the kind of money that the Chargers offered Hayward. I think some here would have blown a gasket had TT resigned Hayward for that kind of money, especially given what was perceived at the time to be a deep young and upcoming secondary. Now, flash forward a year and use your hindsight. Shields was lost for the year, Randall and Rollins not only get hurt, but seem to be worse than their rookie year and the rest of the CB's aren't any better. Top that with Hayward having a great year in a new system in San Diego. So sure, using hindsight, TT looks like an idiot. But using foresight, which is all you have when making the decision, I still think it was the right move at the time.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This will probably come across like I'm just dismissing information that doesn't agree with me, but honestly I don't care much about PFF grades. I think their advanced stats are great, and I appreciate their contribution as a piece of the puzzle. But their actual player grades strike me time and again as being deeply flawed (like when Rodgers went 18/27 for 315 yards, 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions against the Bears and received a negative grade back in 2014, IIRC).

This would be case in point. Those who followed how Hayward was playing in GB and then in SD, and what he was asked to do, know that there was a big jump. He was 2nd in the league in snaps spent shadowing #1 wide receivers in man coverage, he allowed 1 TD, he picked off 7 passes, and he permitted a passer rating of only 50. That is a big jump in performance. PFF grades might not suggest much of a difference, but I think Packer fans who are honest with themselves will admit that he wasn't doing anything remotely like that when he was in Green Bay.

Now you may put a lot of stock in PFF grades, and that just might be a place where we differ. But I assure you I won't be citing them when they conveniently agree with me. I just don't think they're very reliable.

I think that PFF's grades are a decent indicator for a player's performance but of course it doesn't distinguish between a player being assigned to cover an opposing #1 or #3 receiver.

Don't forget that Hayward picked off six passes playing only 62.8% of the defensive snaps as a rookie while not allowing a touchdown though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We were calling for Slocum's head long before the Packers got rid of him. But they did get rid of him. The wheels of change grind exceeding slow, but still they grind.

I won't get too excited about the grinding until I see some smoke and not mirrors accompanying it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I kind of view the Hayward thing as part hindsight and part foresight. At this time last year, the Packers were pretty comfortable with the young group that they had in the secondary and couldn't justify or see the need to spend the kind of money that the Chargers offered Hayward. I think some here would have blown a gasket had TT resigned Hayward for that kind of money, especially given what was perceived at the time to be a deep young and upcoming secondary. Now, flash forward a year and use your hindsight. Shields was lost for the year, Randall and Rollins not only get hurt, but seem to be worse than their rookie year and the rest of the CB's aren't any better. Top that with Hayward having a great year in a new system in San Diego. So sure, using hindsight, TT looks like an idiot. But using foresight, which is all you have when making the decision, I still think it was the right move at the time.

As I've mentioned repeatedly Thompson made the right decision by letting Hayward walk away in free agency last offseason as the secondary was perceived to be a strength.

 

[brandon2348]

PFF is not the bible.

I've been in denial the last couple years and the reality is its a talent issue. Other then the small window in 2014 where they blew it on so many levels this team has overachieved because of A-Rodge. We have an Elite QB and a very good pass blocking OL and a nice collection of receivers but we dont have a Julio Jones or a Dez Bryant. We dont have a "tier 1 RB". Still, the offense is currently good enough to win a Championship if they can stay healthy becasue of A-Rodge.

The deffense is a disaster and is lacking "playmakers". They say every year there gonna get faster but over the years there really not any faster. It's such a small improvent overall on team speed its really not even worth mentioning. It's the same thing every year. I feel like were in the movie "GroundHog day". Lately, I see more promise in UDFA's then mid-round draft picks. It's nice to get quality UDFA's but TT is missing on too many draft picks. Then throw in not using free agency as a life line or even building up depth across the roster and you have this **** sandwich weve ended up with.

If nothing changes then nothing changes. The true definition of insanity is "to do the same thing over and over and expect different results".

 

[Deleted member 6794]

FWIW Chiefs general manager John Dorsey has dismissed rumors of rejoining the Packers.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...lks-with-berry-poe-are-very-postive/97706572/

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Also, the notion that TT makes these moves blindly without consulting with the coaches is kind of ludicrous. If he is, than that alone should have had him fired a long time ago. Logic would dictate that TT sits down with the coaches or at least reads the coaches evaluations and decides which player has a future in Green Bay based on the coaches input, his own observations and financial constraints.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Also, the notion that TT makes these moves blindly without consulting with the coaches is kind of ludicrous. If he is, than that alone should have had him fired a long time ago. Logic would dictate that TT sits down with the coaches or at least reads the coaches evaluations and decides which player has a future in Green Bay based on the coaches input, his own observations and financial constraints.

I'm quite sure Thompson talks with and listens to McCarthy, the coordinators and position coaches but ultimately he decides on which players are drafted, signed and make the 53.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Also, the notion that TT makes these moves blindly without consulting with the coaches is kind of ludicrous. If he is, than that alone should have had him fired a long time ago. Logic would dictate that TT sits down with the coaches or at least reads the coaches evaluations and decides which player has a future in Green Bay based on the coaches input, his own observations and financial constraints.

I doubt he does, though I'm curious to know whether MM has ****** his chain about not signing FAs or not.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

And finally, to clarify the Falcons situation (because I had the same read on the situation as you did initially), their DC was basically stripped of his duties at mid season by Quinn, which is when the defense began to improve. Quinn took on the defensive play calling himself. That's per Mike Lombardi of the Ringer. He said that the DC was going to be out at the end of the season no matter what happened because of the first half of the season, not because of the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I had figured that was probably what it was. I suspect Quinn hired him because he wanted to be able to focus on the head coaching aspects of the team, but he knew if the DC failed his task that he could just step in and run it himself. Kinda odd they didn't just fire the guy right then and there in midseason, but maybe they were trying to save money doing it this way.

 

[Dantés]

Capers has shown in 2010 that when he had talent he put together a very good defense. When talent is lacking, his defenses reflect the lack of talent and they collapse against good quarterbacks. Capers is no magician, he isn't able to take poor talent and form good defenses from it. Does that make him a poor coach? No: It just means he's no miracle worker. I think the first half vs second half performance stats actually provides evidence that Capers can devise a game plan to hide the lack of talent for at least 2 quarters. It shows he may be overachieving given his lack of talent. You can't coach speed! A big problem with his defenses is that too many players are too slow to play well on the NFL. Gunter vs Julio Jones is typical of the quandary that Capers faces. The Packers have had huge gaps in talent on Capers' defenses since 2010 and that should reflect more on TT than Dom. Firing Capers won't solve the Packers problem of waayy too many high draft pick busts on the defense.

For what it's worth, I don't think that replacing Capers would be a magic wand. The talent would need to be addressed. But it could quiet easily be the case that BOTH need to happen.

I've said in the past that Capers is a fine defensive mind, but not the style of coach that the Packers need now. He has a system, and it works well when he has the pieces for it. But he doesn't do a good job adapting his scheme to the talent he has on hand. And it's not as though such defensive coordinators don't exist. The Falcons' staff did a great job adapting out of what they typically do to suit their personnel and the personnel of their opponent in the SB. That doesn't excuse deficiencies in acquiring talent (TT), but I do believe they could and should improve upon Capers.

 

[Dantés]

I think that PFF's grades are a decent indicator for a player's performance but of course it doesn't distinguish between a player being assigned to cover an opposing #1 or #3 receiver.

Don't forget that Hayward picked off six passes playing only 62.8% of the defensive snaps as a rookie while not allowing a touchdown though.

That's a fair point, however it was the regression back towards average in the subsequent three seasons that I would take issue with.

 

[PackerDNA]

FWIW Chiefs general manager John Dorsey has dismissed rumors of rejoining the Packers.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...lks-with-berry-poe-are-very-postive/97706572/

I didn't see anything in there that he 'dismissed ' joining the Packers or anything else. The usual coach speak/ front office speak which could do a 180 a year from now.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's a fair point, however it was the regression back towards average in the subsequent three seasons that I would take issue with.

Agreed and along with perceived younger, talented, cheaper depth, letting Hayward walk was the smart move at the time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I doubt he does, though I'm curious to know whether MM has ****** his chain about not signing FAs or not.

If MM has, he hasn't ****** very hard. TT and the coaches all have to find a happy median and despite public perception as to how bad it may be or how effective it is, I don't get a sense that TT, MM and DC have a poor working relationship. If there is one possible "bigger cog" in the equation, that probably has very little say and is the least happy with that group of guys, it would probably be Aaron Rodgers. I get a sense that he is the most frustrated with being "this close" and wondering what it will take for TT to acquire the players to take them over the hump.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's a fair point, however it was the regression back towards average in the subsequent three seasons that I would take issue with.

Hayward suffered a significant hamstring injury during his second season which might have bothered him even later during his tenure with the Packers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If there is one possible "bigger cog" in the equation, that probably has very little say and is the least happy with that group of guys, it would probably be Aaron Rodgers. I get a sense that he is the most frustrated with being "this close" and wondering what it will take for TT to acquire the players to take them over the hump.

Absolutely agree that it seems Rodgers is the most frustrated about Thompson not providing enough talent to win another Super Bowl, especially after having to watch Brady win his fifth.

Unfortunately a lot of posters mistake that for him being a terrible leader.

 

[brandon2348]

Rodgers is a great leader in the classic sense that he makes everyone better around him.

Of course he is frustrated cause deep down he knows opportunuties have been missed and they shouldnt of been.

 

[Dantés]

Hayward suffered a significant hamstring injury during his second season which might have bothered him even later during his tenure with the Packers.

I totally understand how that would have led to year 2 basically being a wash, but I find it hard to blame that injury for years 3 and 4.

 

[Poppa San]

THIS:

a significant hamstring injury

is what TT should really be working on figuring out the cause of and eliminating. We'll never be able to fairly evaluate team, players, or coaching effectiveness if every Sunday we line up with the 46 healthiest players as opposed to the 2-3 best players at each position on the team.

 

[Dantés]

THIS:
is what TT should really be working on figuring out the cause of and eliminating. We'll never be able to fairly evaluate team, players, or coaching effectiveness if every Sunday we line up with the 46 healthiest players as opposed to the 2-3 best players at each position on the team.

By Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost, the Packers went from terrible (30th) in 2010 to average (16th) in 2011 to absolutely horrible in 2012 and 2013 (30th & 31st) to well above average in 2014 and 2015 (9th & 3rd). I haven't seen any numbers for 2016 yet. But in the two years preceding they had better injury luck than a lot of teams.

 

[Adrien]

I feel like Ted Thompson is really good at rebuilding, but not so much at maintaining success. The Packers win because they have the best player in football at the helm. To be like TT is not a bad thing, it is just that his strength don't match what Green Bay needs right now.

But out of curiosity, if TT leaves/is fired (just pure speculation) who would you like to see Green Bay hire as the next general manager?

 

[Dantés]

I feel like Ted Thompson is really good at rebuilding, but not so much at maintaining success. The Packers win because they have the best player in football at the helm. To be like TT is not a bad thing, it is just that his strength don't match what Green Bay needs right now.

But out of curiosity, if TT leaves/is fired (just pure speculation) who would you like to see Green Bay hire as the next general manager?

How do you figure? The Packers have been one of the best teams in the league at maintaining success (in terms of wins) since he took over. They're 4th in regular season wins. They've only been under .500 twice in 12 seasons. They've been in the double digits in wins 8 times. They've made the playoffs 9 times. They have a winning record in the playoffs. Is that not maintaining success?